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Notes -
Among those people who are projected to die, how many of them are not even in their fifties? Do you really believe the helicopter pilot wasn't murdered?
I can get that you believe it's independant from navalny's death, even if it seems unlikely to me, but to assume that he is just one of those people who would have died anyway is just ridiculous. If I want to be as sacarastic as you I can ask if you think that Prigozhin was also just some unfortunate accident? I mean there are quite a few plane accidents, so it's that impossible, I suppose
Obviously the helicopter pilot was murdered, he was shot. The question is who was responsible. The number I gave you is the baseline number of projected deaths. If you're not old, your probability to die goes down. If you were doing something detrimental to your health (besides opposing Putin) - such as doing heroin, the probability goes up.
After looking it up, I do admit that Kuzminov was likely a big enough issue to be made an example of, but hardly someone Putin would be paying attention to personally, definitely not an election issue.
He lived for 41 years and was probably a drug addict for 10 years at least, so the probability that he dies the same week as Navalny is not higher than 1/500. Obviously you would need to count all drug addicts that could have died at the same time and perhaps there are more than 500, but I doubt it.
I admit the elections thing are just a hypothesis. However when three people opposing Putin die the same week, at least one of them is mudered and you can't get the body of the most famous, my basic assumption is that the three of them were actually murdered.
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