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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   25281 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 26, 2024

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Are there examples of actual geneticists speaking about limits of linear regression PGI?

actually understand how intelligence works to make changes that go that far from natural designs

Depends on what you mean by "that far".

There's a decent amount of funding in genetics and neuroscience

there isn't, say, IQ genetics study with sample of 10 million with full genome sequencing.

that being that smart might not actually be physically possible

Because what? Smaller animals significantly outperform larger animals with same brain size, their brains are more tightly packed. Why wouldn't be elephant sized brain with density of sparrow be smarter? Cooling might be a problem, though.

(wrote in a hurry) IQ is basically defined to be a normal distribution. 250 iq is 10 standard deviations above the mean, and the probability of being >= that is like 1 in 10^23. We can't sample from the distribution of 10^23 humans, and even if we could it's not obvious what distribution to pick or why, so even in theory I'm not sure what 250 would mean.

10^10 data points is still a lot of data. I think it would be enough to crack nonlinearity to process to human twice further from baseline than existing best individuals. It's unknown nonlinearity, but not cryptographically secure nonlinearity.

not cryptographically secure nonlinearity

AGI is ... also "unknown linearity", and arguably in the exact same sense. The data points mostly duplicate each other and test the effects of small incremental changes. It takes a while to build intelligence out of tiny changes, as the history of the planet suggests

The data points mostly duplicate each other and test the effects of small incremental changes.

I do not think given random two individuals of 160 IQ are mostly duplicates of each other.

If industry could profit from engineering 300 IQ humans as they can profit from LLM AIs, we would have it by now. .... i think "we" will have ASI sooner.

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