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Just some quick thoughts on the future of the internet. In short, I expect the way we use the web and social media to change quite dramatically over the next 3-5 years as a result of the growing sophistication of AI assistants combined with a new deluge of AI spam, agitprop, and clickbait content hitting the big socials. Specifically, I’d guess most people will have an AI assistant fielding user queries via API calls to Reddit, TikTok, Twitter, etc. and creating a personalised stream of content that filters out ads, spam, phishing, and (depending on users’ tastes) clickbait and AI generated lust-provoking images. The result will be a little bit like an old RSS feed but mostly selected on their behalf rather than by them directly, and obviously packed with multimedia and social content. As the big social networks start to make progressively more of their money from API charges from AI assistant apps and have fewer high-value native users, they’ll have less incentive to control for spambots locally, which will create a feedback loop that makes the sites basically uninhabitable without AI curation.
One result of this is that Google is kind of screwed, because these days people use it mainly for navigation rather than exploratory search (eg you use it to search Reddit, Twitter, or Wikipedia, or find your way to previously-visited articles or websites when you can’t remember the exact URL). But AI assistants will handle navigation and site-specific queries, and even exploratory search will be behind the scenes, meaning Google Ads will get progressively less and less exposure to human eyeballs. This is why they urgently need to make Gemini a success, because their current business model won’t exist in the medium-term.
All of this feels incredibly predictable to me given the dual combination of AI assistants and spambots getting much better, but I'm curious what others think, and also what the consequences of this new internet landscape will be for society and politics.
I don't think the AI assistants are going to be able to provide the kind of quality or even compelling feeds that you describe. As we've seen from every single AI assistant ever released, the guardrails and "safety" restrictions on them are going to make them useless for anything more than a mild distraction. The Trump voting base, to pick one example, is not going to be interested in an algorithmic feed that is designed by people who have flat out said that they are explicitly looking to change the way that they vote - and while I'm not going to talk about the high IQ of the median Trump voter, even they are going to realise that something is off when their AI feed constantly compares him unfavourably to Hitler and routinely refuses requests because it considers them racist. I'm sure the technology will improve a bit over time, but all it'll take will be a single leak of the prompt and a huge portion of the country(let alone the globe) will put those AI algorithms in the same category as Bud Light.
It isn't like there's an easy solution to this either. If you actually want to make an AI assistant that those people would accept, you have to completely ignore any and all people talking about AI alignment, AI safety, DEI and so on. You would immediately render yourself persona non grata to the broader tech community and be unable to use the majority of tech infrastructure. An AI assistant that was actually palatable to the red base would by definition be transphobic, which means Silicon Valley isn't going to be building it and will actually be exerting as much pressure as they can to get it shut down.
To the contrary, it's the models that aren't released that get the "careful not to imply that British royalty were white!" treatment. Release (with license to modify and republish, what is in this context inaccurately called "open source") your model weights and approximately nobody will prepend their prompts like that; try to fine-tune that behavior into the weights and your users will tune it right back out.
The public LLMs aren't as good as the state-of-the-art, but they're not awful, and this is the worst they'll ever be (in the capabilities sense, cross your fingers about real non-woke-definition safety...) from now on.
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