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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 4, 2024

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What is the contrary evidence?

We can make choices, every minute of every day. We can directly observe ourselves and others making those choices, and have direct insight to the apparent cause of those choices, which appears to be individual will and volition. We can observe that the behavior of others is not perfectly or even mostly predictable or manipulable, and that the degree predictability and manipulability that does exist varies widely across people and across contexts. All of our experiences conform seamlessly with the general concept of free will, none of them conform with Determinism of any sort.

All long-term-successful social technology presupposes free will and attempts to engage it on its own terms. All attempts to engineer society along deterministic principles have failed, often repeatedly and at great cost. This is not an abstract question; it has innumerable direct and obvious impacts on the real world in every facet of human organization, cooperation and activity. There is a long history of actually testing determinism in the real world, and the results have been uniformly negative.

Humans are thinking machines that are self aware and they exist.

There is no evidence that humans are "machines", ie deterministic chains of cause and effect. This claim is not supported by any direct, testable evidence available to us, and is in fact contradicted by our moment-to-moment experience of making choices freely. Many predictions have been made on the theory that humans are machines, and all of those predictions, to date, have been falsified. Even now, you form the claim in a way specifically designed to be untestable, because you are aware that such a machine cannot now be made. You only believe that it will be possible to be made at some indeterminate point in the future, perhaps ten years hence; ten, twenty, fifty, a hundred years ago and more, your predecessors believed the same thing for the same reasons.

Materialists claim that there is no evidence for anything but materialism. Then they claim that our common, direct observation of free will can't be accurate, because it would contradict Materialism. But if our direct experience contradicts Materialism, that is evidence against Materialism.

You do not believe in Determinism because it has been directly demonstrated by evidence. You believe in Determinism because you are committed to Materialism as an axiom, and because any position other than Determinism evidently breaks that axiom. Beliefs are not generated by a deterministic accretion of evidence, but are rather chosen through the exercise of free will, by a process that is easily observed by anyone with a reasonable memory and a willingness to examine one's own thought-process dispassionately. As I said before, this is how all human reason works, how all beliefs and values are formed and adopted. The mistake is only in failing to recognize the choices being made, to allow oneself to believe that the choices are anything other than choices.

Shouldn't it logically follow that more thinking self aware machines can be made? If it exists, which it does, it can be created by us given enough resources.

It logically follows, provided one chooses to adopt Materialist axioms, and thus commits to ignoring all contrary evidence. Logical deduction from axioms is not evidence, though, and, as I mentioned previously, all attempts to actually demonstrate Determinism have failed. We do our actual engineering off free will, not determinism.

None of the above is a language game or a pointless abstraction, all of it can be directly and reliably demonstrated by universal, directly-observable experiences. None of it relies on supposition or interpretation. I reiterate that to the extent that facts exist, the above is simply factual.

We make new humans every single day. So yes they can be constructed. Just with DNA right now instead of machine code. It is all still code.

Well...The first mistake you're making is that you believe "free will" is something that exists. You were always going to make the choices you did based on the state of the world before you made them. You can imagine making different ones which gives you the false impression that something different could have happened. But it never could have. Even if you think that there is some random quantum fluctuation that turned on 1000 neurons that made you turn right instead of left then it is just random chance not "free will". No human has made a choice anymore than a rock rolling down a hill "decides" to keep rolling. It is impossible.

Ask yourself this, how are you making your choices? You are always going to pick what you pick. If you could do otherwise you would have done so, and that was always going to be the case. If it isn't the case then it is just random, and that isn't a choice either.

We make new humans every single day. So yes they can be constructed. Just with DNA right now instead of machine code. It is all still code.

The fact that we can make more humans does not demonstrate that humans are deterministic machines, or that we can make a human-equivalent deterministic machine.

You can imagine making different ones which gives you the false impression that something different could have happened. But it never could have.

Based on what direct evidence? This is not an abstract, unfalsifiable question by default. If what I am going to choose is predetermined, you could demonstrate that by successfully predicting what I will do next to an arbitrary degree of precision, or by demonstrating arbitrary control over my decision-making through some form of mechanistic tampering with my inputs. Only, neither you nor anyone else can do either to any significant degree, and in fact the above statement makes no testable predictions, nor is based on any testable predictions. Worse, multiple generations of scientists have previously claimed to be able to do exactly that, and have observably failed. You are repeating their claims, modified only to the extent that you carefully avoid any claim that could be tested empirically under current conditions.

The only reason my choices "can't" be free is because them being free would contradict materialism. Only, I can directly observe my choices, and they do in fact appear to be free, and the apparent fact that they are free has material consequences that can be measured and observed in the real world. Your just-so story about how they only "appear" to be free in every single observable way is precisely analogous to Sagan's invisible dragon.

Ask yourself this, how are you making your choices?

By focusing my will, determining the action I wish to take, and then following through on it, despite incentives to do otherwise. I can directly observe every part of this process, as can you. I can embrace unthinking habit and instinctive responses, or I can cultivate my will and consciousness of choice, as can you. This experience of exercising the will could indeed all be an illusion, but if it is, no evidence of it being so has ever been presented.

I reiterate: your belief in Determinism is not based on evidence of Determinism itself, because such evidence does not exist. You believe that our minds are deterministic and that the evidence of free will you have directly observed every minute of every day of your entire life must be an illusion, because if it is not, then it implies that Materialism is wrong, and you are committed on a pre-rational basis to Materialism. Yours is an argument from logical inference, dependent on logical axioms, not a position derived at from direct observation of facts on the object level. And this is normal, because all human beliefs are derived in exactly this way.

What determines what you will or what action you chose? Unless you're flipping a coin you're always going to chose it based on who you are genetically and your interaction with the universe up to this point. That is it. Those are the only inputs. There isn't any other option. There is no such thing as free will because there literally can't be.

What determines what you will or what action you chose?

All direct evidence available to me indicates that I determine what actions I choose, through an exercise of non-deterministic free will.

Unless you're flipping a coin you're always going to chose it based on who you are genetically and your interaction with the universe up to this point. That is it.

Genetics determinism should be considered a subset of physics-based determinism, but it hardly matters because there is no evidence to support either. You can sequence someone's genome and measure their environment, and you still can't predict or manipulate their thoughts or behavior with any appreciable degree of accuracy.

There isn't any other option.

...Unless we accept that Materialism appears to be wrong in this case.

There is no such thing as free will because there literally can't be.

...Unless we accept that Materialism appears to be wrong in this case. You are demonstrating the nature of axiomatic thinking perfectly. You are not providing direct evidence of Determinism, you are simply repeating that a commitment to Materialism demands that one accept Determinism, despite all evidence to the contrary. And that is my entire point.

"All direct evidence available to me indicates that I determine what actions I choose, through an exercise of non-deterministic free will."

What does this mean? How can you exercise "non-deterministic free will"? Are you just flipping coins all day? Even those would be predetermined to land a certain way.

The laws of the universe are deterministic at the scale humans operate on. If by some weird twist of fate they aren't. It is random, in which case you're not making any choices either.

There is no scenario in which "free will" could ever even be a thing.

It is a physical and even metaphysical impossibility. What would be the weird thing floating outside of you making the decisions? Why would it make them the way it did? If it makes them based on any rules or information or past history then it isn't free will anymore. "Free will" isn't a thing.

The ancients were 100% correct. It is all fate.

What does this mean?

It means that when a computer does something wrong, we yell at the person who programmed it, and when a machine does something wrong, we yell at the person operating it, but when a person does something wrong, we yell at that person in particular. This is how it works in every facet of human interaction, and for the obvious reason that doing otherwise doesn't work.

More specifically, it means that I am conscious, that I can direct my conscious experience through choices with apparent total freedom. I can think about what I want to think about. I can not want to think about things for a set of reasons, and want to think about them for another set of reasons, and make a decision about what to do. It means I can decide whether to get up in the morning or sleep in, decide what to eat, what to drink, what to do, who to talk to, what words to say. It means I can compose this post to you by choosing each word, based on the message I wish to convey. These conscious experiences of free will are notably distinct from non-conscious impulses, itches, sensations, etc, and can with effort directly override the later. One can choose to suppress the response to and experience of severe pain, for example, through the direct application of one's will.

The laws of the universe are deterministic at the scale humans operate on.

They observably are for all inert matter. They ought to be for human minds, if Materialism is true. They do not appear to be, if our internal experience is to be believed, which is why this has been a hotly-debated topic for decades even when very nearly everyone involved in the debate very much wants the same answer. The problem is that the evidence we actually have flatly contradicts that answer.

There is no scenario in which "free will" could ever even be a thing.

Well, the Christians could be right, and humans could be an immortal soul housed within a material body, not subject to the deterministic rules of the temporary physical universe. Alternatively, we could be living in a simulation, our understanding of causality and material reality could be based not on baseline reality, but on the simulation's own arbitrary-though-internally-consistent code, while our free will could come from a separate module that runs on different principles. So that's two scenarios where free will could ever even be a thing.

But the point remains that you simply repeating yourself: free will can't exist because it breaks Materialism. This does not change the fact that all the direct evidence indicates that free will does in fact appear to exist. All your arguments to the contrary are inferential, not direct. If I want to prove that a machine is deterministic, I show you how the gears work. If I want to prove that a computer is deterministic, I show you how the circuits work. The human mind from the inside does not appear to be gears and circuits at all. It's possible that appearances are deceiving, but "possible" and "proven" should be distinct concepts.

It is a physical and even metaphysical impossibility.

How so? Is there any answer that doesn't amount to "because Materialism demands it be so"?

more specifically, it means that I am conscious, that I can direct my conscious experience through choices with apparent total freedom. I can think about what I want to think about. I can not want to think about things for a set of reasons, and want to think about them for another set of reasons, and make a decision about what to do. It means I can decide whether to get up in the morning or sleep in, decide what to eat, what to drink, what to do, who to talk to, what words to say. It means I can compose this post to you by choosing each word, based on the message I wish to convey. These conscious experiences of free will are notably distinct from non-conscious impulses, itches, sensations, etc, and can with effort directly override the later. One can choose to suppress the response to and experience of severe pain, for example, through the direct application of one's will.

These are all things you were already going to do exactly that way based on the billions of years that came before YOU. What makes you make those choices? Your mind, which is a result of genetics and the impact of the material world on that genetically distinct mind. You've never had a moment of free will, nor have I, and we never will. If you believe in chemical reactions or electricity or gravity...free will can't exist.

P.S. is your religiosity argument really based on simulation theory?

These are all things you were already going to do exactly that way based on the billions of years that came before YOU. What makes you make those choices? Your mind, which is a result of genetics and the impact of the material world on that genetically distinct mind. You've never had a moment of free will, nor have I, and we never will.

Okay. Please demonstrate that this is true by making a testable, falsifiable prediction about the behavior of another human, with enough specificity to clearly distinguish between the two models.

If you believe in chemical reactions or electricity or gravity...free will can't exist.

Alternatively, I can believe in chemical reactions, electricity, and gravity, and note that our understandings of these a) do not appear to be complete, b) do not seem likely to be made complete in the future, and c) do not have anything useful to say about human behavior. If human brains actually worked like clockwork and could be manipulated like clockwork, I would agree that they seem to be clockwork. But they don't, so I don't. Instead, when the theory and the actionable observations of reality appear to contradict each other, I go with the actionable observations. Why should I do otherwise? What does "assume that determinism is true, despite it appearing in every testable way that it's false" add to my thinking? Does it help me make better circuit boards or chip designs?

P.S. is your religiosity argument really based on simulation theory?

Not particularly. Both Christianity and Simulation theory posit that observable reality is not baseline reality. I think the apparent existence of entropy and the apparent existence of free will are two solid indications that observable reality is not, in fact, baseline reality, and that the nature of baseline reality is probably not accessible to us under present conditions.

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Do you not believe in causality? That is the vibe I'm getting from your last bit here.