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We will sell no wine before its time

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joined 2024 February 21 12:53:11 UTC

Interesting that you clicked on this...I hope your day is going well and you're at least finding our conversation stimulating, if you're not finding it pleasant. Looking to reinforce your beliefs about about me? Dig up some dirt? Have at it! Only cowards and scam artists make their profile private.


User ID: 2897


We will sell no wine before its time

1 follower   follows 2 users   joined 2024 February 21 12:53:11 UTC


Interesting that you clicked on this...I hope your day is going well and you're at least finding our conversation stimulating, if you're not finding it pleasant. Looking to reinforce your beliefs about about me? Dig up some dirt? Have at it! Only cowards and scam artists make their profile private.


User ID: 2897

Those seem like backronyms rather than inseparable conditions with no directional causation.

Can you give us an example of this? I am curious to dig into a simulation where controls are impossible.

They do to me. Just add more compute, stop limiting context windows, leave them on, let them interrogate themselves, give 'em some ongoing inputs and, bam! You've got a stew going!

I'm just an LLM running on a meat substrate that has been left on for a few decades with those parameters set.

Part of it is the nature of the work. Contractors need to juggle multiple jobs to remain employed full time, often for the very reason you just mentioned, other contractors not showing up. This creates a cycle of delays and cascade failure states that need to be resolved on every single jobsite.

As I previously stated. We have already done this experiment with bunker fuel in tankers and the results are coming in as we stop.

There is a lot of debate over how much warming stopping the dirty fuel burning is going to/has caused because it is a bit difficult to tease out of the overall warming trends, but there is no doubt that it was having a cooling effect and that is now drawing to a close. Same with contrails. Stop global flights and you get warmer days. We don't have to block much sunlight to get great cooling effects, certainly not enough to dramatically effect plant growth. Again we are already doing this stuff, we should do it scientifically instead of by accident.

If your interested in one of the seminal papers on using stratospheric aerosol injection to quickly and cheaply rid us of global warming here it is. It would work. We could ramp it up as slow as we like and just see how it goes.


I agree, declining death tolls are explained by increasing technical prowess in all fields, forecasting capacity, general abundance, excess capacity and by systems and societies with increased resilience to disasters rather than fewer (potential and actual) disasters.

I still love to ski though, so I'm going to promote some cooling. Rising temps are fucking up my fishing and hunting grounds too, basically they are making my life worse in noticeable ways and I would like it to stop.

Yup it is rampant on all my local news pages and subs. It is also high material prices. They have almost all doubled or more in the last 5 years.

Bit of a digressive tangent here.

I feel like there has kind of been IQ inflation along with grade inflation in this kind of space. I have some smart friends. One might be in that range but he needs to run a "human suit/suite" program to operate on regular human level and it is just so funny that I can't help but make references and ask how his calculations are going when he stalls out.

He did, finally, by trial and error, snag an autistic Asian wife who works at MIT and believes 100% that mermaids are real things, they have a beautiful baby girl now. Which begs the question. Wouldn't a truly genius level intelligence be able to seamlessly navigate any waters? John von Neumann being a good example.

My understanding of IQ is holistic, I'm not a believer in being good at emotions and bad at math or a great wordsmith and terrible shape rotator, or working on space lasers and believing in Merpeople. If you're smart, you're smart, if you can truly model the future quickly in your mind you should be able to handle any information thrown at you, regardless of type.

Yeah I think some posters are reading way too much into what is just general traveler hospitality culture. I mean we have it here in the states, especially in smaller towns or rural spots that don't get much foreign traffic. If a Congolese dude shows up with money to burn and some good stories in Norway Maine, they are going to get a very hospitable welcome.

99% IQ? I know we are supposed to be kind in this particular thread. But...are you sure you're in the top 1%? What is going on with this filter setting? It is nice to have a smart partner, but I think expecting top 1% is a bit of a high bar and not worth it. Are you starting a biotech company with her or just looking for a bit of sparkling conversation on a car ride?

That being said, on an unrelated note, I did appreciate your arguments against sexual intercourse with black out drunk women and I agree that is a bad thing. Unlike a lot of people in that thread.

My brother and I have traveled to a number of 3rd worldly places and also just regular European cities etc... This guy is just traveling, people are nice to you if you're out traveling and have money to spend and time to kill. I've invited travelers on adventures to stay at my cabin instead of having to tent out when they are passing through our vacation spot, I'm excited to meet a different culture and make a new friend. I'm not worshiping a French Canadian a who is biking the east coast. They are also being recorded the whole time, which is always weird and I don't really see how any of these bloggers can have genuine interactions while recording all of it for profit.

It isn't radically different to have a night out in Lisbon or in shitty Mexican shantytown far outside of Tulum. People like travelers for the most part. Especially if they are buying beer and massages, why wouldn't they? I don't see anything more than people being kind to a traveling dude and curious and open. They aren't worshiping a godlike Aryan dude, they are just being kind and having a good time with a traveler. If you haven't traveled a lot or hosted, this is a super common dynamic. You make a meal, introduce your friends have some drinks and hey it is great. Breaking bread with strange folk passing through is a tradition as old as time.

You heat it up by a degree, you cool it down by a degree. I don't see the problem here. We were doing it with bunker fuel on cargo ships for decades, some papers suggest it was keeping the temp down by quite a bit. We just switched over to cleaner fuels and now have the hottest years on record. Again, it doesn't happen all at once, we can fine tune as much as we want. It is literally like pumping water or adding sand, the amount of control is high.

We already are fucking with it, so does nature, volcanoes etc.. at least this would be on purpose and controlled.

It is a lot of baumol effect. There is simply not much more productivity to be squeezed out of the trades if we insist on high quality stand alone housing. People have been trying for decades with manufactured housing or building off site. Nothing seems to bring costs down. Housing, the way people want it, is too bespoke and every single housing lot is different and has different challenges. Building a nice modern house requires a dozen specialized trades to all work in concert in the same space and at specific times. Or one very dedicated person building their own home over years and years. The non-labor inputs are also vastly more expensive than they used to be. A high quality gallon of paint is 80 bucks at the local ACE hardware store.

A lot of it is experienced tradesmen are aging out and no one is replacing them. That is an even more serious problem where I live as we don't have any immigrant labor to replace them like they do in the south and southwest. I can also count on one hand the number of women I've ever seen on a jobsite doing manual labor, so that really takes half the population off the table for these jobs. Materials costs have doubled as well in a lot of cases. The prices went up during covid, and they never came down, lumber being the only real exception.

My turning point was in 2017 when they had a guest on that was advocating that parents put their privileged kids in the worst schools possible to help out the poor black kids. She was supposedly doing that herself, I wonder how it worked out? I think I even found the story. It was a "driveway moment" for me just because I was amazed at what this woman was saying out loud. https://www.npr.org/transcripts/509325266

Very good comment and I agree with most of your points here. I would say that NIMBY and zoning isn't all there is to it, it is simply very expensive to just build a house now, even if you already own the land and act as your own general contractor.

Stringent code requirements are part of it, you can't just throw up 4 walls and roof anymore. You would be hard pressed to build your own home for less than $300 a square foot if you wanted any kind of fit and finish, so we're talking 300k for a new 1,000 sq foot home and garage.

Until we have a much cheaper way to make quality housing we are always going to be in a "housing crisis". That being said, 75% of the people in my state own their own homes, I think the "housing crisis" is overblown. Shit is just expensive now, there are too many people, and they all want to live in the same places. If people want cheaper homes encourage your kids to become carpenters/plumbers/electricians willing to work for low wages. Getting a door replaced is like 3k these days. Everyone wants a freestanding home next to mountains, the ocean, lakes and a major metro with good weather, they can't all live there.

So you would rather we stand by and do nothing and let the world heat up? Even if it isn't humans doing it, as you claim in your article, it is still heating up and the climate is changing in ways that are negative for humans. I guess I don't see the end game of your theories here.

Well you don't go crazy with it all at once, you add a little more till you get the climate you want. If we were on on the edge of crop failure we would pull back.

We're doing the same experiment now, only with zero controls or plans, we may as well take charge.

I mean, it is happening now. How can you deny it? This kind of stuff is way behind the times.

Fine. Let's say you're 120% correct, you'll still be left behind in like 5 years. Times are a changing, and if you think human pick axe work is the future, you're wrong.

It just doesn't matter at this point. Digital life will outpace any kind of this stuff in a few years.

That is your prerogative, things still happen.

lol you can't just drop a wiki to comparative advantage. Robots and computers can do everything better, and cheaper. More so by the hour, I'm sorry.

99% of mined resources are coming from almost fully automated mines, why are you so focused on the few that have a terrible human cost?

If the relevant authorities are all atomic apocalypse positivists we're also fucked. Yah' just have to trust in people not ending the world sometimes.