AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
Interesting that you clicked on this...I hope your day is going well and you're at least finding our conversation stimulating, if you're not finding it pleasant. Looking to reinforce your beliefs about about me? Dig up some dirt? Have at it! Only cowards and scam artists make their profile private.
User ID: 2897
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
5hr ago
What a fucking bad ass. I would have slept with him if I were Mrs. Trudeau
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
5hr ago
I'm not here to make the world a better place. I do that in real life where I am kind to my family, friends and everyone I meet for the most part, I go out of my way to help almost anyone that isn't an asshole, to the point where it confuses people used to being scammed or ignored.
I kind of think of it as A Picture of Dorian Grey type situation. I take the ugly weirdness, intrusive thoughts and over-analysis and put 'em online, where often they provide entertainment and food for thought for the people that don't wish to contribute. I've been doing that since college oh so many years ago. If "do something" is your motto, what are you doing to make the world a better place today?
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
7hr ago
I see people say things like this. I seldom (never) see anyone do things like this. Tax exemptions are also not a panacea for creating a successful organization, the Satanic Temple and Universal Life Church are not exactly going gangbusters. I suppose you're thinking more along the lines of the Amish or Hassidic Jews and maybe a touch of Mormonism. But they were all well established without tax breaks.
American life (in general) continues on apace without much in the way of influence from these successful insular organizations, so I'm not sure how, even in success, this would help with @Capital_Room's question. I, however, given our previous interactions, am not surprised that your solution to almost any issue is more dakka religion.
Good writeup I read your article.
The biggest gap I see in prediction markets is a lack of actual large stakes betting without a house spread. It is either play money, or amounts too small to matter, or it is rigged against you by spreads in Vegas.
I would say the biggest betting markets you've missed are the actual financial, governmental and business markets. That is where the rubber hits the road and huge fortunes are gambled on directional bets. If every country that can is investing in nukes then nukes are probably important on the world stage; if every company that can invest in AI is doing so, the AI is probably key to business going forward.
There is another problem with forecasting that I'm sure people have written doctorial dissertations on. If it gets really good and really common then how would one extract any value from it? It would lack the informational asymmetry that might bring you value today if you had the only good predictive model for something important.
The final issue is that if it is common and good then it will alter the very things it is trying to predict. Does predicting it make it true when we trust predictions at a 99.9% confidence ratio? Is there then a rebound effect where they become worthless and you need a meta meta meta meta meta prediction market to determine the accuracy of the prediction market you're trusting to verify the accuracy of prediction market that you're using to make the initial prediction?
Postscriptum for my deterministic peeps out there-
Eventually everyone will have to accept total hard determinism, because after all, what are scientific physical laws but predictions that are right 100% of the time. But until then, there are hurdles to jump over in finding value in this space.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
9hr ago
Yeah, it was pretty wild on /r/themotte, you would get into it with him on a subject and catch a personal ban haha.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
9hr ago
I'm not sure what you mean here? That I should be doing more thoughtful investigative journalism into the fall of the Canadian way of life? Or that Canada should have bigger fish to fry than dealing with this conspiracy theory?
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
9hr ago
I don't think they look too much alike and Young Castro is much closer. He also seems to have darker hair and complexion than his brothers https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/justin-trudeau-s-childhood-marked-by-privilege-and-upheaval/article_6e7af5bf-1efb-5198-bbc6-a235a64f892c.html
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
10hr ago
There are quite a few Castro relatives in the USA and If I can track down the "Who do you think you are" 2008 episode about Trudeau maybe I can find some of his kin in the US as well. Kyle Kemper is his half brother from his mother so that would work as well. Heck he might mail us a sample, plus he is in the US. I'll reach out!
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
20hr ago
PSLF related, if you want to take advantage of the weirdness surrounding pandemic loan deferment and forbearance or non-conforming payment plans counting towards your 120 payments to public service forgiveness then this is the timeline. They should be consolidated over to mohela if you want to do that. The pslf subreddit is actually pretty good for info on this. Nothing dubious about it.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
23hr ago
Thoughts on Trudeau actually being Castro's Son? I've done more research on this than I care to admit just because I love the meme. It is technically possible with the timeline of his mother's honeymoon in the Caribbean approx. 9 months before his birth. I'm thinking of doing an effort post and making a fun conspiracy website here in the USA where the Canadian authorities can't shut it down.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
1d ago
Bad joke trying to show the suppression of fear and shame leading to irrational behavior. Came back to a ban haha.
I think it is way too soon to hang a "mission accomplished" "AI is no big deal" banner on your virtual aircraft carrier. Doing so today is probably going to look foolish in a decade. Most tech takes a few decades to change the world. AI in the newest big data iteration is already moving much faster than that.
I have often fallen into the "overestimate the short term change and underestimate the long term change" trap, in my own life, and in my predictions. I've been working on that a lot and it is starting to pay dividends in my reasoning. I'm usually right but my timing has been desperately early in the past, switching my thinking like this is putting it a lot closer into alignment with future realities.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
5d ago
I don't agree and fuck you.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
5d ago
I do, but I was brought up a certain way. You don't have to be raised to feel shame for certain acts. Can't you model minds outside your own?
The drug addicts are on drugs and "have no choice". The rich guy cheating with 8 different mistresses only "feels shame" insofar as he is found out and it affects his status when they play it on the news. He doesn't feel a "natural shame" when he is fucking #6, or maybe he wouldn't do it. That dumb podcaster science guy being almost the perfect example.
That said, I agree with you personally, and I would never cheat on my wife, but I come on here to exercise the rational part of my brain, not the boyscout part. My behavior isn't always governed by reason. Nor is that the case for most people. But a perfectly rational actor would not feel it. I also have to disagree with the fear portion of your comment. Most is not warranted in this day and age, vestigial nonsense, like people who say they won't sit with their back to the door.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
5d ago
Well hypnosis is fake so it doesn't really matter.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
5d ago
It might be culturally appropriate, but it has no innate value beyond signaling regret for your actions to others in a group.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
5d ago
I mean it isn't what I think, it is borne out by statistics that no one wants to aggerate. I don't want it to be true. But yeah you would need that, basically a Culture drone missile on assignment to deal with every human deviant. Otherwise, just toss 'em in the warehouse. I don't see that as a worse solution than letting people burn to death in winter tents or die from an overdose. I think we are shirking our duty to our fellow humans by letting them run wild.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
5d ago
The people love mike pence! I'm never getting out!
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
5d ago
I'm consistently impressed by the reasoning level of people I don't agree with. That is why I stick around.
Shame is a low class cultural marker. If nothing is a threat to you then you have no shame. The rich and famous certainly have very little of it if it exists at all, mostly just a cultural nod to the lower classes when at that level, and you only feel it in defeat. It is a fear based emotion that only has the power you give it.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
6d ago
They really can't be fixed though, the same personality and mental flaws that lead them down that path in the first place are not going to be fixed by being 5 years sober in a forced environment. You need to keep them in that environment forever because as soon as they are out they are back at it soon enough. Maybe in the future if we have some miracle drugs that can repair brain damage and rewire...at this point in time there is no real solution except prevention and then containment. My spouse worked for a city homeless center as a mental health counselor at the start of her carrier, she saw the same thing. A zero zero percent long term recovery rate for people that far gone and leaking bile on the floor etc...
Can't get away from ol' Lewis on this forum. I prefer Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg "Never be ashamed of who you are". Walk out of that porn store with your pocket pussy held high. It is the act of acting shameful that brings the scorn. Walk out to your Ferrari in a nice suit and people will even try to copy your bold pocket pussy purchase.
C.S. Lewis would probably agree as he was probably a bisexual if not gay
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
6d ago
Have you heard any interviews with the guy that does the soft white underbelly series on YouTube? He basically says by the time he gets to these people they are so far gone they are beyond any kind of reintegration with society at large and can at best only be warehoused.
When asked about success stories, "basically none" is the answer, once you're on the street with multiple addictions and brain rot that is it for you. He has seen millions of medical resources spent on one patient over their lifetime etc... and that anything but warehousing is a resource suck without end. When asked about solutions to "fix" these people I believe the only one he offered was a time machine to go back and intervene in early early childhood.
Interesting premise. It is nice to have it all laid out for once! I'll have to think on a lot of this and get back to you. Well constructed.
Edit to say that JP is a weak moron. I can't stop myself, after being accosted in my social group by his fans when he first started. I always shat on his simplistic takes, and his subsequent fall into madness and addiction was really very satisfying for me.
I'll never forget a Joe Rogan appearance where he was bragging about being able to lift a small box.
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