author:faceh recession
Presuming those relationships last.
Which is a sizeable "if" in the current era. That's why I think the AI companion is a possible death blow. Without actual, real life women being willing to settle down, this becomes the 'best alternative'/substitute good.
This thought only just now occurs to me, but if we took two otherwise similar guys, one who married a woman and another who just went all in on an AI companion, bought VR goggles, tactile feedback, the requisite 'toys' to make it feel real, and such.
And 5 years down the road the married guy got divorced, maybe has a kid, and suddenly finds himself alone, and these two guys meet up to compare their overall situations.
And the other guy is still 'with' his AI companion, shallow as it is... would he feel better or worse off than the guy who had a wife but couldn't keep her.
You are basing your worldview on random ragebait TikTok videos
Uh, No.
I've basing it on literally years of research on the topic:
I've researched the Low TFR Issue
I've researched the legal and economic side of it. Pointed out how corporations are technically competing with men for women's commitment.
I brought up the "how many marriageable women are actually out there question literally a year ago, then I ran some very rough numbers.
I've pontificated on why intersex relations have degraded over two years ago.
I've even researched the age-gap question.
This includes talking to real people, I can offhand name a dozen people in my circle experiencing the EXACT. SAME. ISSUES.
I beg you to try and give me some data that I haven't seen yet. You came in and assumed off of 3 comments that I've somehow NOT bothered to look into this issue at every level I can?
In fact, I've put in a LOT of effort to try to find the evidence that runs against this point, but in this search I keep finding videos like the ones I posted, which seem to confirm the data, the anecdotes, the personal experience. All of it pointing in the same direction.
Your attempt to dismiss my point out of hand without a single argument has been noted, and my opinion has remained utterly unchanged.
But anyway, that should be an advantage for you. Getting a nice haircut, moisturising regularly and buying a few well fitting fashionable outfits will already set you apart from the crowd.
This is not a problem for me. I am not the one who needs to hear this advice.
I am the one telling you this advice is useless for most men under current conditions and you sound like a Boomer telling someone to sharpen up their resume and give the manager a firm handshake to get hired.
Nope.
The situation has given women more options, which has led to them being more selective.
For the young folks, there's a general recession in sex and in Relationships, which is especially pointed amongst men. Its baked in, young men who don't get experience dating while young will just have a harder time getting dates going forward.
"Women are easier than ever" only holds true for the subset of men that women find attractive on a basic physical level.
Dating Apps, for instance, heavily favor women and the small subset of men who are getting laid left and right and, likewise, have no incentive to settle or commit. Which just makes the women they interact with bitter.
This is supported by virtually every statistic you can find on the matter. You can't self-improve your way out of a game that is rigged against you.
Its harder for everyone else across the board.
but chances you’ll get off on pussy 10x more if you give it a shot.
Men don't just want pussy, they want a meaningful, committed relationship within which they can start a family.
This advice is just not going to work for the vast majority of young men, no matter how much it is repeated.
Now what?
That's about it.
Even bringing up the relationship recession to make the complaint marks you as lower status. "Lol this guy can't get dates!"
And yet, if the problem doesn't get acknowledged, it all just stays in the 'positivity' loop. "You'll find someone eventually, just make yourself better and it'll get easier" even as the objective facts show this is simply untrue.
And finally, people who won already and have committed relationships have less reason to pay attention to this issue, and are more likely to assume the complaints are overblown, and so join the chorus of voices dismissing the speakers sounding the alarm.
Meet girls IRL
That's not how couples meet anymore. Especially among young people, who don't get out much anyway, they grew up in the digital world, and Covid made this even sharper. You can't meet Gen Z girls by just 'going out.'
The gender ratios in most public spaces are skewed towards men, which also makes women more averse to being approached over and over agan.
Women can get on the dating apps or any social media site and get all the attention she wants, so there's no need for her to entertain IRL offers.
Is it THAT hard?
Now what.
It seems to me that you just have a chip on your shoulder about the guy.
I have a chip on my shoulder about a few guys who regularly make subtly fallacious arguments in favor of a position they support but who will never actually defend those arguments when pressed by someone with subject-area knowledge. As in, I've had to watch time and time again when somebody points out the error in the logic or brings in their own, seemingly superior data and these people will ignore it entirely and/or shift to a slightly different position.
Intellectual cowardice is an ongoing pet peeve of mine. All the moreso by parties who make their living on their analysis of reality. They seem to fill a niche that's a step above "blowhard cable news pundit" where people who want their priors confirmed but also want to think they're not being fed a line of biased tripe like the proles.
Again, this became blatant with Noah suddenly coming to the realization back in October that YES, the Left houses a LARGE amount of antisemitism whilst Conservatives/righties have been pointing this out for a really long time. He's happy to believe that the right tolerates antisemites and condemn them for it, because that fits his preferred conclusions. Simple.
I went back to his feed again and now I had to read the gem "Nuclear is a niche product." Which is 'true' in the broad sense (it is niche because nobody is allowed to build it!) but then he declares solar the superior product and when somebody reasonably calls him out on this he wouldn't even deign to respond.
"Nuclear is a niche product! Solar is our best bet!"
"Wait, by any fair definition Solar is in fact very niche and will remain that way for years to come, what are you basing that on?"
Clearly he's just engagement baiting at this point, but again, this is all decreasing the quality of discourse, and somehow this guy makes his living by the quality of his input to discussions. Compare that to Zeihan's take on the same issue, which means we can actually compare their accuracy down the road.
I've been going through some of Zeihan's predictions and he's a typical doomer, with all the bad predictions that come along with that. E.g. he made a very strong prediction that China would collapse in 10 years, and I don't think we need to wait another 6 years to see if this comes true.
On the other hand, I've yet to hear the good counterargument that demographic collapse won't inevitably lead to certain nations experiencing massive internal chaos.
China currently depends on imports for its basic energy and food needs, and the primary value they have to trade is a massive labor pool and, more recently, massive pool of consumers. And they admit that this pool is about to shrink sharply because the country's TFR has been well below replacement for decades now.
The cascade of effects seems straightforward:
- Shrinking population leads to fewer laborers AND consumers of end products.
- This decreases their ability to provide value to the global market.
- Which in turn decreases their ability to afford imports for energy and food.
- Which immediately threatens internal stability, as they will have to revert a lot more labor to their agricultural sector. i.e. deindustrialize.
- Which further decreases the labor pool available to provide value to the international markets, further hurting their economy.
- A bunch of people who got used to rising living standards suddenly see living standards crater.
- Unrest.
Which of these steps is wrong, or where can the CCP intervene to avert the end state?
He's been pointing out that the U.S. efforts to secure the seas for private vessels are likely to decrease, and with the Houthis continuing to interfere with shipping in the Red Sea there's already plenty of signs that this is accurate.
I see the Reddit comment and yeah, he definitely blew the 'two year' prediction and I'd not expect anything like that to occur even in the next two years, but I actually agree that we're in 'witching hour' times, where fat tailed impacts can occur on short time scales.
Indeed, the main reason I'm not a full doomer myself is that I'm seeing two possible futures, one where AI and automation lives up to the hype and manages to usher in a new industrial revolution, and one where things spiral out of control before we get true benefits from AI and we end up in a deep global recession. I honestly couldn't tell you which is more likely, but I don't see a likely future where we kind of just muddle along on the current path without something giving way.
Noah seems to try to put the optimist spin on things but doesn't seem to actually want to engage with the doomer's case in earnest. He mostly seems to say "line has been going up in the past, I believe line will go up in future." Which is fine... but not useful.
Well broadly if you ask them, they can't find men that meet their standards.
Maybe its politics.
Maybe its the money.
Maybe its about the weight
But its broadly women who are passing on men, not the other way around. Which explains both the large number of single women AND the fact that apparently desirable men remain single.
And the fact that half of Gen Z men are just giving up.
And young women are significantly less likely to report being single.
For those that are:
DESPITE this, young single men report greater interest in dating than young single women:
This doesn't make sense if MEN are the ones passing on women.
So yeah.
That's been my point all along and I haven't seen a single piece of data that would refute it, yet.
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