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faceh


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 05 04:13:17 UTC

				

User ID: 435

faceh


				
				
				

				
7 followers   follows 2 users   joined 2022 September 05 04:13:17 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 435

LLMs have been VERY helpful to me around the house when I hit on normal homeowner problems that (usually) have surprisingly simple fixes or workarounds. Its probably saved me 1000's of dollars in theoretical professional repair bills (blunted by the time I actually have to spend to implement the solutions).

It once diagnosed a simple plumbing issue from a single photo and basic description of the problem. It helped me fix my water purification system by finding specific parts that I needed based on a couple photos.

However, certain real world issues with complex physical interactions seem to elude the thing.

I'm trying to diagnose a water leak in my washing machine, and I give it photos of the washing machine, along with model info, and photos of the water leak and general description. It has me go through some diagnostic steps but is very shaky on what the most likely failure modes are.

One of the issues, I think, is that I can't convey to it the SOUND that the machine is making very easily, or feed it video of the thing while its operating. I'm describing things to it, then it tells me to take a particular step and describe the outcome, and I think too much is lost in translation, and a washing machine is more complex than most appliances.

So its telling me workable steps to diagnose and possibly fix it, but its prognosis is all over the place depending on how exactly I describe the problem, and some of the fixes are involved and probably uneconomical.

So once I pop the washer open and figure out how bad things are, I'm almost certainly just going to buy a new washer.

Its not that I expected 'better' from the AI, but I think if I just had a handyman or repair guy come out they could figure things out within 5 minutes just by looking, listening, and poking around a little. THEN I could query ChatGPT as to whether their proposed price was fair or if they were likely yanking my chain.

In my experience, the most ruthless social climbers indeed come from families that encourage such strategies for personal gain.

Even if the parents weren't training them, they were enabling/tacitly approving the behavior. I can't say if they would literally sit at the dinner table in the evening and discuss/scheme how to get back at rivals and enhance their standing, but they surely gave them hints and ideas.

I used to look at the kids who were driving extremely fancy cars and had all the expensive accessories and wonder if they thought they were fooling anyone, we all knew their parents were buying that stuff for them and didn't the parents know they were spoiling their kid for no reason?

And now I think yeah, those parents probably knew exactly what they were doing and that was the point. Either the parents had low status in school and are now using their money to give their kids a boost they never had, or the parents were high status in school and saw exactly how beneficial it was to win the status games and want to make their kids learn the same lessons.

(and of course such parents are using their kids success to play status games of their own with their own peers).

Yeah, part of the theory of institutional rot is that eventually it settles in so deeply that

  1. To actually address the rot would require exposing how utterly compromised the institution is, likely leading to its full collapse.

  2. The members of the institution itself are aware of how compromised are but are dependent on its continued existence, and the honest ones are outnumbered by the apathetic/compromised ones, so everyone just goes along.

It is hard to imagine situations where a high-profile, wealthy, esteemed institution that becomes aware of its own declining functionality is able to course-correct from purely internal pressures, rather than some exogenous force arriving to impose changes.

Ironically (or not?) Elon showed that there are 'nondestructive' ways out. His handling of the twitter takeover maintained continuity but he fixed things by a quick purge of staff, then bringing in some motivated replacements to reorient and take control and 'right the ship' then a lot of rapid,

This didn't work nearly so well with DOGE... but I think the idea has legs.

I do now believe the the filtering/skin in the game mechanism has to be harsh and trigger as early as possible. Harsh as in the outcomes should start with death and scale down from there. "Early" as in people should be getting filtered before they are in position to do extreme damage.

And there should probably be some redundancy as well since the first thing any infiltrator will do if they sneak through a filter is... disable or modify the filter itself.

I think you're mostly right there, but there is a reason that most forms of media that talk about real events will do that whole "Any similarity to actual persons living or dead is purely coincidental" disclaimer.

Had Afroman come to me before making his videos and described what he wanted to do, I would have advised him to hedge his risks. "Don't make a song about any particular cop/person, but you can make a song about corrupt cops in general" of "hire body doubles and make strong allusions to who you're talking about, but never stick their actual name or image in the song or video."

Shows what I know.

What he did is just a couple steps below this parody Grinch Song, calling them out with such precision and making it clear he's hoping people believe it. Or at least to make it a popular rumor.

Justified? I think so, he chose targets who had already done him harm, and was quite proportionate in response.

Pretty much.

Afroman could have waived the Jury and had a judge decide it, but either he or his attorneys realized that if the situation as a whole was put in front of a jury, it'd play very sympathetically.

Holy cow.

I thought that this case was ripped straight from a South Park episode before.

From the CCTV videos, he has a decent amount of assets to seize to satisfy a judgment.

Agreed on the lack of reputational damage if he refused settlement, though. And he was obviously savvy enough to see that he could raise his profile if he played this one to the hilt.

If he said yes, then Afroman's statement was truthful which is a complete defense to the claim of defamation.

Technically all he had to do was say "no, not to my knowledge".

Its funny to think he had enough of an inkling of doubt as to the truth and thus didn't want to lie on the stand.

In trying to game out the Deputies' plan here, I can only assume they just thought they'd found a target with potentially deep pockets and who would just settle with them for a high six figures or something.

But they found a guy disgreeable enough to stick it out and who was a very sympathetic figure in the whole thing. And as noted, didn't burn goodwill by trying to turn it into a racial animosity moment. Which would have been a believable narrative here.

"Corrupt Cops against the First Amendment and the American Spirit" is a VASTLY more appealing framing than "racist white cops vs. downtrodden black rapper."

And showing up for the trial in American flag suit and sunglasses combo (with a perfectly coiffed afro on top) is a serious masterstroke.

I'm actually somewhat surprised the Judge let that fly, but then, the First Amendment ALSO protects the right to wear such things in court.


And the thing is, the cops in question actually had the makings of a valid case. Afroman made very specific, defamatory claims using the clear real names and likenesses of the parties he targetted. He did so intending, very specifically, to cause them reputational harm. If they were true claims, then he's very much in the clear. But surely some of those claims were just blatantly false. That's how rap beefs work, you make certain claims and boasts that are exaggerated or false but provocative to diminish the opponent's status.

It wasn't a frivolous lawsuit, just a stupid one.

I don't know how large the reputational harms could have been in money terms. Its just not a good look to get on the stand and play some goofy-looking music video by a dude whose house you did in fact raid, and pretend you're the one with the emotional trauma from this situation.

CLEVER. I laughed.

Of course, MLK is one of those lefty heroes who might have been okay with rape I was thinking of. The proof is not dispositive there.

Seems like the difference between the guy for whom its a 9-5 and he's just carrying out his job working at the atrocity factory, vs. the guy who is doing his war crimes during his personal time.

I mean, I'm just asking it to be provocative. "If saving six million Jews meant 12 million women get raped, is it a net good?"

Can your utilitarianism save you now, rationalist?

I mean, I'm not looking for redeeming qualities. Right wingers have their goddamn share of atrocities to their names, even if those who were impeccably gracious in their personal lives.

Just making some observations about comparative evils.

Was defeating Hitler worth the huge amount of rapes committed by the Red Army? I think the lefties would say so. I wouldn't want to ask for an exchange rate, though. "How many rapes is worth one holocaust victim's life" is a horrendously taboo question.

That wiki is a horrifying read:

Acts committed by Dirlewanger include burning the genitals of women he abused with a petrol lighter, whipping them naked, and injecting strychnine into Jewish girls and then watching their death agonies in the officers' mess. Dirlewanger would often rape children, whether boy or girl, and then shoot them afterwards, with many of his victims being from the Lublin ghetto.

Jesus. CHRIST.

Morgen requested Friedrich-Wilhelm Krüger, the Higher SS and Police Leader for the General Government, for an arrest warrant against Dirlewanger, but Krüger was blocked by Berger.

Sort of gets to the point, though, he would have gotten punished more quickly, if he hadn't apparently had a powerful protector.

Literally my thought.

I doubt he was having trouble finding consensual partners.

How many streets are or were named after him?

If we want to make that comparison, then do public school teachers, too.

The fact that a long-serving GOP Speaker was a pedophile has been largely consigned to the memoryhole

How many statues to Dennis Hastert are out there? I genuinely don't know. I assume zero.

How many streets are named after disgraced Catholic priests?

I'd make the connection between libertarians being open and tolerant (and leery of strict authoritarian rulemakers) and their susceptibility to letting questionable characters into their midst. They could stand to be about twice as judgmental as they actually are.

And lefties in general having that same tendency. They like to reject rigid rules and prefer more relativistic morals, and thus the are able to get to a position where "restricting children from having sex is oppression!" is a viable stance for many of them.

Yep. "Positions of power will attract power-hungry sociopaths" is for all pursuits and purposes, a truism.

But it is notable that the ideology that claims to be about liberation, smashing of oppression and coercion, removal of hiearchies, etc. etc. has such poor antibodies against abusers achieving power.

To the point where they will actively coordinate to protect the reputation of the abusers in many cases, for the good of their movement.

And of course the libertarian movement, both right AND left, has a bit of a reputation for being pedo-tolerant to a fault, which points to the issue NOT just being about exercise of power.

I'm going to say something I can't truly back up but I'm noticing the belief forming so I'll throw it out there

It turned out that "Moses of his people" routinely raped underage girls including another famous activist Dolores Huerta.

This is bad. Imagine if it came out that MLK raped Rosa Parks. That bad.

It says something about the psychology of this particular ideology that so many prominent lefty leaders turn out to be rapists and/or pedophiles. It genuinely now seems like there are fewer such leaders, political or otherwise, in the last 100 years that DON'T have such credible allegations than those that do, now.

Likewise, look at the most credibly implicated parties on the alleged Epstein list, and note their overall political bent (Looking dead straight at you, CHOMSKY.)

Like, here's the most absurd way I can characterize it:

Even the Boogeyman of their entire political movement, Adolf Hitler himself, did not rape anybody.

I don't think Vladimir Putin has been credibly accused of rape either.

Trump has of course been accused of rape and other forms of sex assault (and yes, "grab 'em by the pussy" counts in its own way) but I am genuinely pretty sure he has never forcibly penetrated anyone in his life, I read him as his ego requiring him to believe he successfully seduced someone.

And how many male feminist types have been outed as sex pests in the last 10 years alone?


And no, I'm absolutely, positively not saying "right wingers are less likely to commit rape or practice pedophilia."

I think I'm gesturing off in the direction of "right wingers tend not to elevate rapists and pedos as leaders, and are certainly NOT prone to censoring or rewriting history to cover up such traits in their leaders." And perhaps a side of "Right wing leaders tend not to use their power to indulge that particular cruelty, despite the various other atrocities they will impose."

Happy to accept some correction on this point, but Googling (in an incognito window) terms like "Did Pinochet/Franco/Napoleon/Bolsonaro rape anyone" usually turns up results related to torture tactics used by their regime and not acts they themselves were known for.

Well, there are allegations against a dude named Franco but he's yet another of those male feminists.

And I DID turn up some credible claims about Mussolini. We could probably argue for a few hours about whether he's truly right wing, but I will not push that button.

I think its somewhat less about being easy and more about being legible.

Redpill guys make the art of attracting a woman legible.

Looksmaxxers make the status game being played legible.

Bodybuilders make the process of slapping on absurd amounts of muscle very, VERY legible.

Science as a whole makes the basic biological/evolutionary/psychological underpinnings of our otherwise inscrutable traditions and social rules more legible.

If there's no legible rules, if the game being played changes on a dime or on the whim of some fickle women, or because political parties change, it becomes completely impossible to play this game in a 'rational' way.

And then people's fates are decided entirely by luck and a few factors they may or may not be able to control.

Yep.

Cue my Skin in the Game rant.

We are TEN FUCKING YEARS into Trump's political career and they STILL DO NOT GET why he is genuinely popular, and why he keeps 'winning' even as they characterize him as a buffoon.

People that are THIS wrong for THIS long ought to be filtered out of the court of public opinion, should not have positions of political authority. But no, they persist on the power of mass delusion (which, ironically, is what enables Trump to be successful too).

This is why one of the most genuinely useful rationalist skills to learn is "notice when you are confused" and "make beliefs pay rent."

If I'm constantly surprised by certain outcomes, clearly there's a knowledge or logic gap I need to address, rather than just stepping on the same rake over and over again.

Needing to be rewarded for doing/knowing/being good at things is the behavior of a child or a dog. Part of being a man is cutting your own path in the world for yourself, not because other told you to, rewarded you for doing so, told you: "you were are a good little boy", etc.

Cutting a path TOWARDS what?

There are some things that have to be terminal values or objective, or close to it, for people to keep charging on. Call if 'purpose,' or call it will to power, call it whatever, but there's some world-state, some emotional state, some actual place on the map that one is striving towards. What is the long-term payoff in this life?

Existential self-satisfaction and discovery

I have engaged in a lot of 'discovery' over the past 10 years. Introspection, outrospection, research, experimentation, trying things, failing, and sometimes succeeding.

And it turns out that the factors that gives me the highest amount of existential contentment and self-satisfaction are having an attractive partner that loves me and having a genetic legacy in the world that I can expect will outlast me.

Bar none. I've had the experience, and I can say with zero doubt the happiest days of my life were having a woman that I expected to marry at my side. I am not guessing, I've been there, I know how it feels, I know how motivating it was, I can remember how happy it made me.

Likewise, turns out one of the most important things in my life is my little 18 month old niece. I can only imagine how important a child who is my direct genetic lineage would feel.

Amazingly, I also noticed that these are the exact things that the modern world has made much, much harder to achieve, for completely structural/economic/political reasons that are beyond any individual man's control.

I suspect I'm not the only one who has come to this sort or realization. Far from it.

Idk, figure it out,

Yeah sure. 10 years training Krav Maga 5 of those years teaching it. I can probably physically dominate on the order of 95% of the male population. If mating rights with local females came down to a contest of physical violence, I'm likely winning a whole harem for myself. But no, society is not (currently) arranged that way. How is it arranged?

Acquiring that skill was a hard thing. Maybe someday I'll have to us that skill. I'd love to never have to physically harm someone, but the capacity to do so is good.

But... why spend time building such skills. I point towards my earlier self-discovery. If I can't find a loving partner, if I can't pass on my genes and raise and protect children of my own, what in all that is good and holy do I do with these skills? If I'm destined to be alone for my whole life then I'm missing something that I am PAINFULLY AWARE would make me happier and more content.

And if developing further skills isn't appreciably increase my chances of getting this, then the motivation to put in the effort is simply not there.

Incentives exist, incentives drive behavior no matter your philosophy on the matter. If there's some reward for a behavior, you get more of it. Full stop.

And the current incentives are lacking for going out and doing 'great things' for a world that isn't going to let you achieve the favorable outcome that most people are biologically wired to desire.


Like, dude I don't, and most guys don't need someone holding their hand every step of the way. But support, positive reinforcement, and constructive criticism are sort of necessary. Rome wasn't built by a bunch of individual dudes self-maxxing. It was cooperation, coordination, building through team efforts (and some slavery), working TOGETHER rather than just saying "I dunno, you go figure out what you want to do." In short, men helping men figure out a unified purpose, and driving in unison towards that purpose for decades on end.

And when they didn't have enough women to go around, they banded together and guess what they did. And presumably your philosophy would approve of such path-carving. It shows gumption.

But it'd really help to make the whole process easier if we can at least agree that the social baseline is in fact slanted against men, and the factors that enabled and encouraged men to succeed not even 50 years ago have been knocked out from under them. AT LEAST BE HONEST ABOUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TASK, and then we can maybe acknowledge that solving it/overcoming it will require some serious cooperation between men, not just a bunch of individual guys wandering around 'figuring things out' ad hoc, with most of them failing, individually.

So, how can you cooperate/coordinate with other men to improve things?

In terms of the larger genetic fitness level, many many women are successfully filtering themselves out too.

But this would lead us to the aside of how young ladies being on hormonal birth control probably screws up their actual desires and has them filtering for factors that aren't great for long term reproductive success.