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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

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					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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	 Hot Bump Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 8, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Economically and in other aspects, there is a lot going well the the US, but I think we will start seeing more assassination attempts. These are different from typical riots or school shootings. Even though the Trump shooter failed, society was still disrupted. Assignations exploit a weak point in society and carry symbolic value  with efficacy that other forms of political  unrest cannot match.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 8, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


most conservatives that ostensibly want to tear down the liberal establishment, actually don't want to give up their liberal freedom and personal autonomy.




How far back turning the dial of time does returning to tradition mean?  It's like a tradeoff between higher relative status for White males and lower standards of living, vs less status and the fruits of modernity. I think for the former category, there was more freedom compared to today. But also,  I think people have a conception or  idealization of a past that didn't really exist, when in reality things were pretty disorderly back then. If you read the biographies of artists and writers who grew up in the mid  to early 20th century, when America was assumed to be more conservative and religious, a theme is how they were constantly breaking the law and given second chances. it's like these ppl were in and out of detention  and skipping school and smoking and drinking in their early teens, and no one cared that much.  Nowadays, things are much more strict.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
he's like a less intelligent  and more liberal and sanitized  version of Matt Ygalsias


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The problem with crypto is you run into the same problem of having to explain the source of the funds during the fiat conversion process. It adds additional complexity without much benefit, for example,  if someone uses stolen crypto to pay for a service.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It always annoys me was 'esteemed' physicists venture into woo. That is a sign  they ran out of ideas or are unserious about research and should retire to let the next generation of competent researchers in. This guy way overrated relative to his contributions.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 1, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I remember in 2019 when  Google/Youtube used  similar pretext for demonization, blaming advertisers who didn't wish to be associated with violent or hateful content . At the time it was a big deal , as many channels depended on ad Google ad revenue.  That problem suddenly went away, and now I see Google youtube ads on some of the most heinous videos imaginable  (execution videos, or a 9/11 jumper landing on  a light pole .it didn't end well for him or the pole). The advertisers didn't give a shit and still don't care if their ads are placed next to violent content. Gore aficionados buy stuff, too.  Google invented  some lame excuse or pretext to demonetize.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
that actually makes perfect sense as a deterrent


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This is why I withheld judgement and just waited for more info to be released. It's too easy to be swayed by out of context videos and narratives.




Scotland has its own problems, but racialized sexual predation is not at the top of the list.




The thing about this type problem is you don't need many incidents for it be a major problem.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
way too  soon to know


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think he meant not that he runs for office but that he forces Trump to change his mind as to who to endorse


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


People keep making the mistake that the "real world" is more important than a small fringe of online crazies, and they keep getting proven wrong over and over and over (e.g. with woke, the alt right, gender identity on Tumblr). The arc of MAGA is long, but it bends towards Based.




It's not though. The online-right has been calling for transparency on Epstein even if it hurts Trump,  and opposed the airstrikes on Iran. The offline/mainstream-right do not care much as much about either or supported the strikes. After Trump attacked Iran, his approval rating did not fall.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
but Ghibli  is a dead giveaway . The concern over fakes is that they are subtly indistinguishable  from  a real-life event or the original image (e.g. slightly slurring someone's speech to convey inebriation) . Those examples you give are obvious fakes. Those  fakes go viral for the novelty factor, not because  people are confused or are mislead. Also, those are based off of photos, so there is no artist.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yes it has that shitty Ghibbi style or whatever it is called with the obvious sepia  background. it's not even good animation


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The video is real , but what was the sequence of events that led to her brandishing  those weapons .It's not like people carry   axes when they go walking. were they just on the ground lying there or something.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The obvious explanation is that the videos are being heavily promoted. But I don't know if this is the case. It's my understanding that YouTubers generally don't pay for promotions,




I saw it said "promoted" under the sidebar, indicating he's paying for views. The low comment to view ratio is what you would expect for a paid video. . Videos with  highly engaged fans will have really high ratios.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I don’t think tariffs are a central Vance belief at all. If you oppose them it would be easier to lobby him personally in 2028 as presumptive Republican nominee than to convince people to oppose any Republican candidate on that basis.




It's possible he personally thinks they are a bad idea, but he has to signal protectionism,, as that is what is popular with voters and necessary to win the primaries. Trump has shown the winning playbook and I cannot see his successor deviating much from it, at least not during the campaign.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Trump frequently changes his mind though. We saw this with tariffs.




A person like Scott Lincicome of CATO truly believes that government taking equity of private enterprise is bad policy, and thus it's easy for him to critique it.






And you see with libertarian Republicans like Ron Paul, Justin Amash and Thomas Massie criticizing the Intel buy




The rise of Trump, who copied the same protectionism of Biden, on top of Obama, has basically revealed the libertarian-adjacent wing  of the GOP to be ineffectual. These people forever have been on the losing side, save for Ross Ulbricht pardon. Their publications and think tanks  are utterly ignored by anyone of importance. They are screaming into the wind. It has always been that way, but it's like what a  waste of money promoting all those libertarian causes. I think this shows that some flexibility is good, and Trump's  successes is illustrative of this. Otherwise you just become obsolete and end up wasting money and time.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Why does advice work so poorly?
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Competent teachers and coaches through talent and experience are able to identify these levels in their clients/students and will adjust advice accordingly




yeah there is a "you get what you pay for" rule in regard to advice quality


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
For the past 3 weeks I have been inundated with ads paid for by USAFacts, a non-profit  founded by Steve Balmer. In its own words, it's a "...not-for-profit, nonpartisan civic initiative making government data easy for all Americans to access and understand. We provide a data-driven portrait of the American population, US governments’ finances, and governments’ impact on society."


Some of these videos have a considerable number of views. The videos below have 10 million views each in less than a month, indicative of a large budget  and a major media push. YouTube ads targeting the US are not known for being cheap, given that it's a high-SES audience.  YouTube counts a view as someone who clicks the link and watches at least 10 seconds of the video, at a cost of roughly 10 cents a view. By my estimation, he has spent $2-4 million in promoting these videos, among others, in just a month alone. This is pocket change for him, but my question is, what does he hope to accomplish with this?


https://youtube.com/watch?v=JXKLoDXmZNo


https://youtube.com/watch?v=Bl1HRu18X0Y


Although it describes itself as non-partisan, this does not preclude some sort of agenda or motive by its founder.


The 2028 US presidential election is still years away. The content itself is not outwardly partisan and it's hard to shoehorn it into any specific agenda.  Perhaps he hopes viewers will  become better informed about trade, to dissuade them from voting for the presumptive GOP nominee, that being JD Vance, who supports tariffs? But the ads are broadcast everywhere, not just battleground states.  Or he's trying to cement a legacy as a lecturer and public intellectual , similar to Milton Friedman or Ray Dalio, who also have popular economics videos. Between this and Bill Gates' philanthropy, it shows that the ultra-wealthy tend to also be workaholics.  They are not content just retiring with their money. The last thing I would want to do is get all dressed up and read for hours scripts for many videos. Sounds really tedious and boring.


I don't think it will work though. The era of the 'TV public intellectual', as exemplified by Donahue and  Crossfire which pioneered the format, peaked in the 80s and 90s, before the internet.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Why does advice work so poorly?
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I sorta see what you mean. Personally, I have  learned give and take little advice. People generally do not want unsolicited advice. Good advice is typically very specific and by an expert ; for example , an academic advisor.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 25, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I always assumed that life-saving care must be rendered unconditionally, but that the insurance company can still refuse to cover certain elective procedures, in which the hospital  is under no obligation to perform them.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Why does advice work so poorly?
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Summary:


There is an extreme amount of intraindividual variability, yet advice tends to be one-size-fits-all. This is especially relevant for fitness and dieting advice.


Advice does not work as well in adversarial situations, in which both parties are applying the same advice.


Too many people applying the same advice dilutes it effectiveness.   This is seen in college admissions, where everyone follows the same essay-writing advice.


Survivorship bias may make some advice appear better than it actually is. Those who are successful at applying advice will tell others. The majority, who fail, will just go away.


Other advice is time sensitive or topical, and what worked in the past will not work now or in the future. 'Value investing' worked great for much of the 20th century, but became less effective in the 21st century.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 18, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
right, he still has tenure


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 18, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
He still has tenure. the funding can be terminated at will


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 18, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
But had he not signed the letter, would his funding not been cut? The stated justification by the trump administration has to do with UCLA failing to adequately police antisemitism on its campus, not wokeness.