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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

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					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think mental health in general is overrated when it comes to predicting or stopping future shooters. If someone intended to actually do this, presumably they would change their behavior to fool doctors. They would act as normal as possible. Other problems include false positives and the presumption of innocence. You cannot just revoke people's rights  for being weird.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The main problem is in many cases there are no warnings. The recurring theme is a putatively normal person suddenly becomes homicidal. In hindsight, people may recall a shooter being  "odd" or "weird" but this seems more like hindsight bias, and is hardly useful when trying to predict future shooters.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah I was wrong about Germany. good point. It’s more than manpower; it’s also the general doggedness in enforcing the law, and responsiveness. The latter is especially important, because German or UK police won’t respond to every call as quickly as U.S. police do. Unless it’s really serious, they aren’t going to care that much. The U.S. also has “reasonable suspicion,” which gives police considerable discretion to investigate even without a crime having clearly been committed. There are exceptions, of course, like the UK’s hate speech laws, which they do seem to enforce very closely. If I were going to shoplift, for example, the U.S. would be near the bottom of my list for that reason. That has to be a deterrent, and it could explain why fewer police are needed.




Again, to lazy to aggregate numbers from different sources for the EU, but Germany likes stats. It has a 50% higher "cop density", and this results in the US having pretty much exactly 50% higher robberies and assaults (per capita). Burglaries 3x more frequent in the US, car theft/jacking is 5x more frequent, and (of course) homicides are 6x more frequent (all per capita). Only petty theft is more than 2x higher in Germany, my instinct is that's its mostly bike thefts (everybody reports those because of the insurance payout).




demographics . if Us police were swapped with German police, I posit crime would surge here. if demographics were swapped, crime would surge in Germany.




much. The biggest difference for the civilian on the street is that German (and EU in general) cops seem much more chill during traffic stops. Probably a combination of more training (3 years full time), more filtering/culling during training, and less fear (almost no driver is ever armed).




This makes it more effective  as a deterrent and why fewer are needed. People are much more obedient this way. American cops have to also have to consider the risk of people being armed, and or on drugs, or ornery . This is why Japanese or European style policing  likely  fail "here". Most people are compliant but the handful of bad actors ruin it for everyone, but I would also argue there is a follow-on effect that hot-headed or trigger-happy cops are a deterrent  independently  of demographics. .


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
maybe nothing? The odds of this are extremely low, and this can be treated a baseline risk. But reinforced doors would go a lot further. The biggest problem is shooters going down the hallways and just opening fire in rooms after forcing the doors open .


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-24
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah, but you can negotiate much lower if you pay cash or default on medical debts. so this changes the math materially .


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-24
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The hospital doesn't do it. they would likely outsource it to a debt collection agency, assuming it ever got that far. Because it's a service, like student loan debt, it cannot be repossessed . This means trying to garnish wages, and courts can block this. Medical debt is like delinquent student loans: a long drawn out legal process that works to the debtor's favor, and lots of wiggle room. The best bet is to negotiate as much as possible and pay as little as you can, but do not ignore the bill.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
but per capita  the US puts away more  people though. The long sentencing and high conviction rates encourage plea bargains. This is a feature.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


As long as school shootings happen, there will be a pretty sizeable contingent that will want to ban all guns, Australia style (though you can still get shotguns in Australia…). Tradeoffs really do exist, but it’s a tough sell to say that the country is built off of some amount of murdered kids every year. Seems there aren't any perfect answers to this problem.




Even that failed to curb violent crime much. Made a post in 2017 about that , https://greyenlightenment.com/2017/10/12/the-over-hyped-purported-efficacy-of-australias-gun-laws/


From that Gladwell interview:




This is where popular understanding and facts diverge. A lot of people think that gun violence is something that is used in the commission of some other criminal act—to defend the drug trade, to rob someone's house. In fact, the overwhelming amount of gun violence is young people arguing with each other and using guns to resolve some grievance or exact revenge. We design our system on the assumption that gun violence is a rational thing that people do to get something. It doesn't work, because that's not what it is. It's kids with beefs, trapped in cycles of revenge and retaliation, who don't have any other means of resolving their conflicts.




It can be both. It also explains why gun bans are not that effective. A criminal enterprise will find ways to procure guns even if there are bans.


He goes on:




Because America doesn't have any police officers. It's not controversial. It's just a fact. European countries have twice as many cops per capita as we do.




In the usual sloppy Gladwell  logic, he compares apple and oranges.  European police are basically like the equivalent of an American private security guard. Uk police is some out of shape middle-aged guy with a reflector vest and a walkie talkie that can't do shit. American police are armed, more aggressive,  and have much better technology at their disposal, and when combined with longer sentencing and higher incarceration rate, especially for repeat offenders, American policing gets much more milage per cop compared to Europe.


It only seems worse here, or America seem underpoliced, because our demographics are so bad, and Americans may have less tolerance for crime, whereas Europeans are much more habituated muggings and shoplifting.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-24
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Maybe you get cancer. Maybe you get T-boned at an intersection by someone running a red light and then you end up in an ICU for 4 weeks followed by another 6 weeks of various step down care and end up with a 450k medical bill. Which they will make you pay if you can pay.




You can negotiate this much lower, and lots of discounts if you pay with cash. Even with insurance, people report being denied or incomplete coverage. Refusal to pay medical bills is not as bad as it sounds and it's not like they can take your property (homestead laws apply).


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-24
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Good move, imho. Hospitals offer tons of discounts if you pay upfront and you can negotiate to lower the bill.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
"Can the results convince experts," that is the real test, imho. So for  math, can AI-assisted papers actually get published in journals by non-experts using the tools. Can non-experts make art or writing using AI that is likewise well-received.




Enterprises will continue to use the big SaaS programs, and you'll see some more niche stuff switch more to internal builds. (again, assuming AI didn't keep advancing. What will actually happen is in 6 months - 1year they will be pretty much perfect and software will cease to exist)




This is why AI is so big right now: it's software and other analytical stuff, not art. This is literally worth trillions given the valuations of Anthropic + Open IA. Soon  every  company  will be using AI, such as payroll.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's a "turtles all the way down" type problem. the infrastructure has to be hosted and run somewhere


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah most people may not notice AI, but all it takes are a few people to make a stink about it and it costs you invaluable credibility, then others see it , too "cannot be unseen effect". Someone taking a screenshot of a pangram score overshadows any good will the author had.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Nah it's still terrible at writing essays, imho. It inserts too much hedging language and it often comes off as oddly formal.  People complain about  AI writing because it has these tells, unless your audience are youtube, Instagram,  or tiktok, I suppose  . But where it can be useful is if you're trying to write a sentence, but you cannot get the turn of phrase quite right, so you can feed it to Ai and it generates many suggestions and you pick the best sounding  one.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah like the firefox tor exploit the us govt.   secretly used


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The media always exaggerates these things


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
the single wheel bikes are sorta similar to Tron i guess. Maybe in 10 years VR will finally catch on, but they said that 10 years ago...


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


then why do we need software companies to begin with? For that matter, why do we need software?




It has to run somewhere? Runtime environments are still a huge  deal.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


2030: Someone proves the Riemann hypothesis after spending $30,000 worth of tokens over 2 years.




given how the navier stokes took $25 million , 10k agents, and a private model to prove the easier version of the problem (which some argue is not the true problem) , for an individual to prove the Riemann hypothesis for only $30k is   an optimistic forecast, if anything


The models really hit prime time in mid 2026. The disproof of the Jacobian Conjecture really is what set things in motion, in July 2026. Before then it was assumed mathematicians would always have an edge.


AI images and writing are still  kinda bad, but the attention has moved to coding and math, where it really shines. It took 4 years for AI to find its true purpose as a computational tool rather  than a creative one.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
A browser is like a mini computer ,except everything is in virtual memory . the ability to run applications  , or play games  , such as flash, long predates modern AI. Same for porting and reverse engineering stuff.


The walled garden aspect is not going away. Apple and Google still have a duopoly on apps. Same for the monopolies on payments. You cannot just vibe code  your merchant, as orders route though the same credit card providers. Or vice code the interoperability between the icloud and your mac/phone. or the social network aspect of facebook/instgram.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
has anyone ever had their mind changed by fact checking?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Most people vastly overestimate their ability to predict second- and third-order effects of anything, including strategic speech.




This ties into AI and investing. A second order consequence of the AI semiconductor boom in 2022-2024 was a "memory shortage" in mid-late 2025-2026 which saw stocks such as Micron , Western Digital,  and SanDisk increase by 10x in a 1-year period, exceeding even NVDA itself, yet based on my own research, only 2 people total predicted the memory shortage second-order effect. All the attention in 2022-2024 was on Nvidia but no one cared about memory . None of the popular bloggers, podcasters or anyone else in involved  in AI foresaw the shortage or recommended those three stocks. It just suddenly happened--boom--memory shortage (there is even a Wiki about it). My guess is, the rise of coding agents in early to mid 2025 saw sudden demand for memory, because this requires having to store large projects.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


No shit, that's why we hate liars.




really? this seems like a revealed vs stated preferences  disconnect . People who lie seldom face consequences ,and retain jobs and status. I think it's like, we don't like lying in principle, but we can also compartmentalize why people lie, so we are quick to forgive.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
large public interest, as evident by the strong box office gross


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
in many cases defendants   for white collar crimes get the book thrown at them, and I am trying to figure out why hers wasn't like that, and why she will bounce back.