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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					3 followers  

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					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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	 Hot Bump Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Most people vastly overestimate their ability to predict second- and third-order effects of anything, including strategic speech.




This ties into AI and investing. A second order consequence of the AI semiconductor boom in 2022-2024 was a "memory shortage" in mid-late 2025-2026 which saw stocks such as Micron , Western Digital,  and SanDisk increase by 10x in a 1-year period, exceeding even NVDA itself, yet based on my own research, only 2 people total predicted the memory shortage second-order effect. All the attention in 2022-2024 was on Nvidia but no one cared about memory . None of the popular bloggers, podcasters or anyone else in involved  in AI foresaw the shortage or recommended those three stocks. It just suddenly happened--boom--memory shortage (there is even a Wiki about it). My guess is, the rise of coding agents in early to mid 2025 saw sudden demand for memory, because this requires having to store large projects.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


No shit, that's why we hate liars.




really? this seems like a revealed vs stated preferences  disconnect . People who lie seldom face consequences ,and retain jobs and status. I think it's like, we don't like lying in principle, but we can also compartmentalize why people lie, so we are quick to forgive.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
large public interest, as evident by the strong box office gross


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
in many cases defendants   for white collar crimes get the book thrown at them, and I am trying to figure out why hers wasn't like that, and why she will bounce back.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It’s like, "don’t commit crime or we’ll send you to a  white-collar dorm  prison, where you’ll serve half your sentence after an extremely long  post and pre-trial period, and Netflix deals and lucrative opportunities (e.g podcasts, consulting )  await your release.”


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for October 14, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This could answer the CI aspect but it does not explain how so many people do not lose weight as they should when dieting. Historically, people quickly lost weight when food was cut off. The Minnesota starvation study made this clear. if people's metabolisms are actually slowing, this can lead to propensity towards weight gain.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-17
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The  AI rally gassed out in May. disappointing


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-17
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's so dumb how the entirety of the 2026 AI rally was compressed into 4 weeks between April-May . The Nasdaq has otherwise been flat. This meant changing my strategy to selling  long-dated covered calls.


I did this for space-x and  then for other tech stocks. This was 3 months ago.  This has worked well given that market has  done nothing since then. If you sell a long-dated at the money cash covered  SPY call (expires in 800-900 days) you can capture most of the upside in a rally and gain 1%/month  of theta decay  in flat market.


I would have expected a stronger and more consistent rally given all the AI hype.


/images/1792343224734581.webp


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Again, I suspect you're wrong; I expect the most important math journals will all pivot now to publishing primarily expositions of computer-generated results, which is a major shift. Soon, the expositions themselves will be computer-generated, too. As far as academia, the entire systems of reward, hiring, and promotion for research math will be unsettled (each of these systems is currently focused on the ability of individuals to develop proofs of mathematical statements).




This does not contradict my point. The journals still exist and are selective and important, but with AI playing a bigger role. But the vast majority of content, ai or not, will be rejected. AI has the effect of raising the bar of quality because now people can use AI for help.




ertainly we don't deride great (human) mathematicians this way (look at all the problems Gauss couldn't solve). Maybe you're suggesting that humans today can still more effectively resolve certain types of math problems than machines can? If so, what evidence do you think supports this idea?




My point was there are tons of prompts that fail to yield sought solutions. so no one reports it or write papers about negative results.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
you think math doctoral programs will go away?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
LLMs still cannot create research programs or appraise novelty well. They will crunch a bunch of numbers and spit out something which although technically new, is of little value or interest to the the "math community" (unless it solves an important conjecture/problem, and this depends heavily on prompting too )


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
oh, by "fail" I mean prompts which don't give proofs. The Ai tries and fails to prove what the user intended.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
At the very least I think prompts should be disclosed  . This is a good compromise between Ai math and purists. Did the user start with a blank canvas, or had some idea of where to begin, and then guided the AI accordingly?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This does not quite fall under culture wars, but I thought it's still relevant given that it's a big story.


On October 6, OpenAI released a large batch of mathematical results, with more than 700 manuscripts covering hundreds of problems: Sharing AI progress in mathematics.


This has led to another round of controversy and discussion about AI making mathematicians obsolete or disrupting research programs that people have spent years working on. The Verge covers some of these reactions in “Mathematicians will need years to make sense of OpenAI’s latest drop”.


Many of the results are still being checked, but the release has called into question if mathematics can survive as a profession, or what purpose it serves if machines can outpace humans. Research programs have supposedly been gutted by these results. "Careers ruined," as the narrative goes. I think that is an exaggeration or overreaction. There are thousands of mathematicians and their interests are very wide ranging. The odds of someone's research program or problem being "solved" by AI are very small.


I don't see anything changing much. The status quo of journals and academia will remain intact even with rapid progress in AI, save for the occasional breakthrough in an unsolved problem. What is overlooked or ignored is the massive gap between cotemporary  research-level math vs. LLM-produced math. A math PhD program, especially from a good  school,  teaches or guides future researchers  towards  productive areas of research that are of interest to the "math community," rather than results that are merely "personally interesting".   AI cannot recreate such communities or networks.


AI is great for generating computation-laden results on-the-fly, but research-level math is more concerned with abstractions and relations between them, than crunching. I recall one example where ChatGPT’s Astra program tried to pass off a finite computational cutoff as a “theorem.” Um, you can't do that unless you prove that the bound is sufficient.


To test this, I produced some AI papers which I thought were great and novel, and the AI said so, and journals rejected them (although others are still pending at various stages of peer review). I had some knowledge in said area and could assess novelty, but still not good enough. I don't see laypeople doing better in this regard, although could be wrong.  I ran my ideas through the Ai and got 12 papers out of it, which saved considerable time had I written them myself. It also found non-obvious connections and results. I am really satisfied with the results, but does this meet the bar for publication? Time will tell. I bet not.


Also, success is heavily dependent on the prompt. It's not as easy as blindly prompting something. I made a post about that https://greyenlightenment.com/2026/10/11/the-nuance-the-math-debate-is-missing/  I suspect many of these successful proofs were prompted by experts who knew what to look for, rather than just naively trying. What is touted by the media as an AI breakthrough, may involve surgically precise prompting in the background by an expert in said field.


Alluding to the "airplane meme," there is also survivorship bias: you don't see all the failed attempts with AI . Sometimes it works great, but other times hit or miss.  Presumably , the "top unsolved problems" have been queried by frontier models and using large token budget, with few proofs to show for it (save for the Open AI "dump").


It would be cool to see AI truly shake -up math and breathe new life into ignored areas, but that is not going to happen, imho. But I do see AI leading to a 2-track system of decentralized preprints and GitHub repositories of AI-produced results, alongside established academia and journals. They will coexist, rather than the later being obsolete.  Overall, mathematicians don't have to fear losing their jobs anytime soon (unless of course you happen to have the precise problem you are working on scooped by AI, and even then, your skills would presumably transfer to new problems.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for October 14, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah he's trolling. report him


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
think had trump not done the Liberation Day  tariffs in 2025 and not attacked Iran. His approval ratings would probably be at 45% now


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I mean interfacing with the real world . The containment breach during the Hugging Face incident was not that surprising and does not change my priors.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Sorta. A high GPA means you’re intellectually capable of absorbing large quantities of material. It’s more than just being able to function in a particular environment. If an employer sees that someone has a 4.0 in literature or philosophy, that signals they’re good at reading and making sense of large amounts of text. This is useful in a work setting when having to process reports, or make sense of disparate pieces of information. But the high GPA is also indicative of an ability to fucus and get work done, so there is an IQ and attentiveness component.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
comedy is like the dream job because you get paid to tell jokes. there are no responsibilities. it scales well: you can go on the road and use the same material for years, with extra income  from specials,  albums and various residuals .  The downside is misreading the audience. this is called bombing. Some might blame it on political correctness or an overly sensitive audience,  but this is cope, imho. Your job is description is literally to make people laugh, not to rescue people from burning buildings or stuff like that . the onus is on the comedian to connect with the audience, and failing that, you no longer have a comedy career and someone  who does make that connection will take your spot.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
My p(doom) is still around 0%. The AI doomers have still not provided a convincing argument for how AI actually breaks containment. The most realistic disaster scenario would involve AI being put in control of infrastructure and then malfunctioning because it misread some signal.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's amazing how trump is such a big public figure yet so little is known about him outside of that persona . What i have gathered is trump is  lazy and delegates a lot, but this is not bad  .  He does the minimum needed , but this allows him to cover  many areas, like being POTUS, media,  and running his businesses. He does not care that much about the details of policy , compared to someone like Clinton. I think the only details trump truly cared about  pertain to his real estate business.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
the OP probably meant boots on the ground . the SCOTUS killed the tariffs anyway


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
many employers use the Wonderlic, which is very similar to an IQ test, in addition to checking for the usual credentials. But some may only use the Wonderlic. I agree IQ is way more efficient, but OTOH it does not test for diligence  . getting a degree is a grind due to large coursework and having to show up , and many  people do not finish for this reason .


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I look it as, if I walked up to a woman on the street and called her that can I reasonably expect she would take offense? In this case yes.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
the question is, would this has been discovered eventually  anyway if not for AIAYN?