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George_E_Hale

insufferable blowhard

2 followers   follows 11 users  
joined 2022 September 04 19:24:43 UTC

The things you lean on / are things that don't last

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George_E_Hale


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
insufferable blowhard

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 11 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 19:24:43 UTC
				


				
					

					
The things you lean on / are things that don't last



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It has a wide reputation as bullshitto. I watched a few videos years ago where this older Russian guy touting Systema was dodging attacks and somehow debilitating his opponents without as much as touching them. "He was doing something I can't understand," said his opponents.


Unconvincing.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Paging @FlyingLionWithABook


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
You show patience you didn't think you had, you empathize, and you just get through it. Any siblings? My own brother was basically useless and even counterproductive, but my female relatives were very helpful (and at times annoying but you take people as they are in such situations.)


I can recall very clearly feeding my dad with a plastic fork and telling him he had to swallow his macaroni (he had become dysphagic after what I believe was a stroke). Heartbreaking is the right word. It's not something I'd wish on anyone, though most of us will have to experience some form ir another of this. If your parent is in a hospital or care center or hospice much of the burden is relieved, though then of course there are other worries (are these people competent?) and so on. Relatives can really help though in ways that friends can't or don't. It's a reminder how important family is, and in particular the important role of nurturing (i.e. women.)  YMMV I suppose.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Hasn't hit Japan yet as far as I know, but here there are already enough charms, amulets, bracelets, talismans, and assorted other apotropaic tchotchkes spread about the shops, stalls, shrines, and genkans that people probably don't have much mental space to add in the heavens. Oh and blood type, can't forget that. Blood type interest seems much more female coded but the general vibe toward what I'd (as someone raised Christian) see as animistic superstition is general. Of course I recently heard of a Japanese woman mocking Catholicism as a bizarrely morbid cult that has the gall to hang its god's body out in the middle of the place of worship, so there's that.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
That would be approaching from a rational, or at least reasoned, perspective, whereas those who seem to embrace astrology also seem very much emotional and intuitive. The rational trappings about celestial positioning and whatnot are just embroidery, in my view. Like a Grimoire page 257 suggesting you need exactly three drops of virgin blood to cast the spell, or whatever. The exactitude is the sleight of hand to get you to buy into it as real, though fundamentally it's hookum. When confronted with your point here it isn't hard to imagine a bit of handwaving and scoffing that "that's not how it works," followed by a topic change.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Monkey here. But I didn't know that pre Japan. I used to read a lot of Camille Paglia and I find her takes fascinating but her attachment to astrology was always weird. In your categories she's probably more hardcore nut, though she's also separated from her lady friend. To listen to her talk about starsigns with the same straight faced dogmatism and tachyphemic eloquence that she does with most everything else was an experience.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 6, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
There are of course Kathoey in Bangkok, Pattaya, etc., but there are also thousands of actual females from the countryside peddling ass in the tourist areas. There's no contradiction here.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for September 4, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's really amazing that you can know this much about someone, though of course you may have an inside track I'm unaware of.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for September 4, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I know next to zero about what goes on stateside, though I have heard the term lot lizards.  The whole milieu has always seemed trashy and generally unsavory to me.


What I noticed strolling through the open genkan of Tobita Shinchi was not the tawdry squalor, but the very Osaka neat Japanese decor, the mannered behavior, and the surprising beauty of many (not all) of the girls/women sitting there. I think it would be quite something to interview some of them but I've long given up on access.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for September 4, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I don't know much about soaplands, but I think that they are sort of the old school type of establishment. Off the top of my head I cannot think of anyone I know who has ever been to one. At least they haven't told me about it. I think I heard some American/Canadian guys in Tokyo frequented them, but that is a vague memory of 20 years ago and these guys were seedier even than the degenerates that I sometimes spend time with.


Just like anywhere, I imagine some will accept foreigners, some will accept foreigners who can communicate in Japanese, and some won't. There are various sorts of clubs, some of which make the wikipedia article and some which don't. "Delivery health" or デリヘル is probably the closest to what you have in the US in terms of callgirls, though to the best of my knowledge it is entirely up to the girl involved whether she will actually have sex. If she won't go with a foreigner you'll find that out soon enough, but there are literally hundreds of such shops in Osaka city alone. Many of them have English versions of their webpages, suggesting someone is paying attention to the tourism boom. There's at least one completely open red-light district in a rather seedy area in the south. I've been through there, the first time completely by accident, subsequent times to show people who've come to Osaka what it looks like (no one went in.) In this place if they call out to you, you're acceptable. It is total prostitution, completely against the law, but is sidestepped by various small gestures (they are "teahouses," forget about the fact that there is a girl under a lamp showing her cleavage, wearing a santa suit and fishnets, or whatever). There is within a two-block radius of this district both a police station and an organized crime headquarters with its kamon or organizational crest right out on the front door. Tobita shinchi is very old, almost like an Osaka version of Yoshiwara in Tokyo. (I have never been there, no.)


I think part of the no foreigners is probably about awkwardness and communication and the ability to negotiate and read the air, especially in a matter as delicate as whether she is going to actually have sex with you or perform some act like sumata or whatever. In every day life there is so much you have to just "get" about situations (outside clearly tourist situations) without being told that I can't imagine sitting there making a deal on fucking or not would be easy. The argument can be made that this is true in any culture, and I agree with that, but there seem to me to be many more unwritten rules in Japan than say, France. Simple, uncomplicated racism as well no doubt exists in some of these places, particularly in the older dudes who own them, or maybe there's a reputational issue where they want their bread-and-butter Japanese clients to feel they are in a foreigner-free situation. (Note I believe there are delivery health services whose roster is exclusively populated by foreign women [probably Russians or other eastern Europeans], for the Japanese man who has such a fetish. It is also possible some of these places do not accept foreigners. I wouldn't be surprised.)


Edit: There was recently--well a year or so ago--a big deal about teenage girls prostituting themselves in a certain area of Osaka proper. This made the news somehow and the city passed an ordinance where the roads there were....painted yellow. Also signs were put up along the lines of "You are important" and "Don't ruin your life." Or similar. It apparently worked because the girls no longer loiter there. Probably somewhere else. It's a strange world. Tokyo is like Osaka x100 I expect.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for September 4, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
To my knowledge there are no direct equivalents in Japanese to either of those terms.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for September 4, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I wouldn't imagine Japan is a quick flight but there is all the sex you can shake a stick at in this country, at all levels of depravity (I am guessing!), with any type of woman that interests you, from respectable college students (who whore themselves twice a week for tuition) to Office Ladies (OLs, yes, that is still a term), to trashy kogyaru street waifs, to thousands of dollar escorts, to pregnant and/or lactating women (I am not kidding, and I am sorry to be the source of this news). Of course paid sex is illegal, yes, but you're not actually paying for the sex, no; the sex is the woman's choice. <--typical legal maneuvering


Japan isn't quite the Sodom of Bangkok, but it has its moments.


Caveat: Not all Japanese women.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for September 4, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Just one?


I drank far too much two nights ago, and Friday was a bit of hell on earth. It is now Saturday morning in Japan and I'm considering at least a month sober, maybe two. Osaka suburban sprawl, but we have a great park nearby that I often walk, which helps with the peace.


Notably, I am old AF, but I have never set foot in New York City. I feel like I should have done so long ago so that I could then see changes over the years. As it is now if I ever go there I'll only know it as whatever it is now.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 31, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It will all depend on what you're measuring and how you're measuring it. Quantitative and qualitative analyses are two completely different paradigms (though they are often married in mixed-methods research.) They don't even use the same vocabulary, and the product of their aims is fundamentally different.


A quantitative look at divorce, for example, might have a questionnaire as its main instrument. You get a bunch of numbers and it turns out the main predictor of divorce (note: not cause. Predictor) is contempt (as one of my friends likes to say whenever the topic comes up--I think he read something by Gladwell.) A qualitative study wouldn't have a questionnaire at all. You'd probably use interviews as participant observation of a marriage would have intrusion and ethical issues involved. You might end up with several narratives where you have a man recounting how his wife would always take her phone in the bathroom and stay far too long, as if sending messages, or a wife would talk about how the husband suddenly started washing his own clothes when he got home. Or whatever. The write-up for each would be totally different, and you'd be learning and digesting different things. A lot of people hate qualitative research. It's my main choice. It can be done very, very sloppily, however. I'll get to that in a second.


Back to making a quantitative questionnaire--if that questionnaire has not been, for example, piloted for content/face validity (via relevant experts who know the topic, but also item correlation/factor analysis) its results are more or less just noise (You also cannot use, for example factor analysis on just any set of questions. There are various requirements [a reasonable sample population, get rid of outliers, variables have to be on I believe an ordinal/interval scale, there has to be some degree of correlation in variables, you really need a normal distribution, etc.] If you don't fulfill these prerequisites again you're producing noise.)  Once you have an instrument (questionnaire/whatever) that is relatively polished you administer it, but then in order to determine whether your results will be generalizable you'll need an appropriate sample size (and even then depending on the randomness of your sample your results will only generalize to that population, not the entirety of humans in all cultures).


Research design is also important. What you want to measure will determine how you measure it. I do not mean that you cater your plan to find a conclusion you want. I mean that if you want to measure something you need the right tool.  Statistics do not show causation. A research design using statistics can establish causation (as in the numerous studies on cigarette smoking and cancer.) There are also criteria establishing causation.. The old saw correlation does not prove causation is of course true, though often positive or negative correlation is the smoke where there is fire. But not always, or even most of the time, in my opinion (which is worth about five cents.)


There are numerous threats to quantitative validity. Regression to mean, compensatory rivalry (in the case of two groups), compensatory equalization (when a researcher interferes), history, maturation, etc. etc. I highly recommend the book The Research Methods Knowledge Database (<- this is a US Amazon link, which I changed from the Japan link, but I cannot recall where you are.) I am not sure how much of this book no longer holds but it was a great read when I first went through it.


Qualitative research (what I do) can seem wild and woolly to an outsider, as if it's just you talking to someone and writing down your thoughts. And that is probably not a bad description of it, though there are, again, all sorts of rules you need to follow, primarily but not only to set the groundwork for reproducibility. And that, as we have seen, is a problem in both types of research--the findings are not reproducible. Documenting exactly what you do at every stage is very important for this. One study requires mountains of documentation. If you have any interest in qualitative research (and I would say the median user on the Motte does not) I would recommend the book Naturalistic Inquiry.


I have probably not answered your question, but I have let this sit and I didn't want to write something fast with my thumb. And you may know all of the above and more. You also may not find any of this compelling. I am not particularly good at statistics, though I used to use SPSS with some degree of expertise when I was made to do so. I believe that software may be outdated, or at least not used as much as it was. The Bayesian wave of the last 20/30 years has also changed a lot and I am out of the loop. Note I have known many researchers in social sciences, most of them what I would consider well-meaning ignoramuses, some of them outright frauds, this in both quantitative and qualitative. I have known only one man who I thought was a genius psychometrician; he didn't rely on the software as he knew the formulas and why they were the way they were. A math guy, like many of you (maybe not you-you, but the general Motte You.) He died far too early of a brain tumor in one of life's cruel ironies.


I have read a lot of shoddy research. Far too much. Enough to at least doubt (if not completely dismiss) every study that I see, most seriously when the study confirms my own biases. But then I think that's the right way to live. I could be wrong.


edit for clarity and this is still not very clear. My parentheses runneth over.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 31, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Social science research done well is not going to reach the levels of hard science, of course, but it is certainly not worthless if done well. There are various strategies to establish validity, reliability, etc. in quantitative measures, and credibility, transferability, etc in qualitative research. The problem is ideological capture, wrongthink, and institutional guardrailing. As well as a general lack of rigor, even when the methods to maintain such rigor and force accountability exist.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for August 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
There is a searchable archive of material though it may not have what you want.


edit fixed link


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for August 28, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I had a teacher named Mr. Wolf, in elementary school. Or, rather, the school had him; he never taught me. He looked like Gabe Kaplan in Welcome Back, Kotter except fucking mean. Mustachioed. Maybe just strict. Vulpine. I remember him slinging a kid around by the kid's shirt collar out in front of the school and asking (rhetorically I assume) DO YOU WANNA GET HURT?!


The pathetic no from the boy (remember this was elementary school!) to this day strikes a chord of pity in my heart, or wherever. I'm a bit sappy though.


I also had a teacher named Mr. Cummings who ended up marrying the (female) math teacher whose first name was Gay. He has passed away, alas, so I feel slightly boorish joking about his name, though I guess it's her married name that wins the prize.


The most plain name was Miss Smith, who was also (you knew this was coming) the most beautiful teacher I've ever had. Heavy-lidded and long-eyelashed Miss Smith, she of the quiet voice, lithe figure, and long dark hair. I remember she taught sitting down often. English, the smart-kid-class I got moved into halfway through the year. Was it Mrs. Smith? Ms.? I feel it was Miss. I remember she seemed to keep to herself, though I have a clear memory of seeing one of the PE coaches talking to her, some fit doofus with thighs like wrought iron. I wonder what happened to her.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for August 28, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Ha! That explains my colleagues bringing their dirty clothes up to me.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 17, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
But a myth is different from a lie, or a vacuum. You wouldn't, presumably, argue that nothing at all happened yesterday. My point is that it may not be particularly helpful (or, indeed, possible) to wave away anything not immediately historically verifiable (by whatever means would be satisfying, and I use this term 'historically verifiable' to substitute for your word true. Not that I have an issue with the word true but because its meaning is fluid unless we mean factual and not subject to interpretation. In other words fact vs narrative--and nor am I saying narrative is a dirty word ). Nor is it constructive to dismiss myth as irrelevant (or outright harmful) to the living of life.


I sympathize with your general point regarding the bona fides of a lot of what many of us were taught as facts in school.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for August 23, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Spicy is apt. I would view this as a reddit-tier view aligned with the Tear-it-all-Down, Black-is-White teenegae angsty ethos of many users there.


Keller got into and graduated Radcliffe. There is good evidence that Sullivan misrepresented certain aspects of Keller's achievements at different junctures, but to dismiss them both as fabulists is, at least based on what the historical record suggests, unwarranted.


Edit: I am not saying your take is reddit tier as I took your post as a hypothetical answer.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for August 23, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
A fraud within a fraud. I assumed @zoink was aware of this but his query still holds with Abagnale as an exemplar.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for August 23, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Longer for some than others.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 17, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Out of curiosity, what about the post you're responding to has prompted your response here? Do you doubt its veracity? Or is it that this is new information to you and you feel it has been previously hidden from you, and thus a narrative of some sort has been thrust upon you regarding something about Till's history without your having the facts?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for August 23, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I can recall making a comment about a megapint of wine over DM with a friend back in the US. I had watched a few bestof clips of the Depp/Heard trial and found that segment funny (Depp is asked about alcohol and is questioned something like "You poured yourself a megapint of wine?" Depp actually seems amused at the term and just asks back: "Megapint?" It's really the kind of interaction made for the internet age. For a while you could find online for sale the Mason jars fixed to winestem glasses of the type seen in the Heard-secretly-filmed videos. They were of course sold as "Megapints." )


My friend had no idea what I was talking about.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for August 21, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Well I did not move to Japan for the women, but I may be an outlier. I would concede that there is probably a big-boob fetish among many Japanese dudes.