FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
And every gimmick hungry yob
Digging gold from rock n roll
Grabs the mic to tell us
he'll die before he's sold
But I believe in this
And it's been tested by research
He who fucks nuns
Will later join the church
User ID: 195
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
8hr ago
The entirety of Western administrative government is based around the idea that "managing" "safe" "orderly" use of [x] empowers the government to keep certain people from using [x].
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
8hr ago
Israel, because they have a veto over the negotiation, without spending any credibility on the process.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
8hr ago
The vast majority of 80 year olds suffer from significant memory impairment. This isn't ground breaking news.
Simple way to keep this polite:
If Trump, as Commander in Chief with apparently sole authority to start a war and draft the strategy thereof, starts a war of choice against Iran and Iran ends up controlling better than a tenth of world oil transit in the peace deal, can we consider that simple evidence of cognitive impairment?
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
22hr ago
I would guess that this is not answerable with any degree of rigor without a specific example, which you are presumably unwilling to offer because it's too close to home.
That said, in a general sense I can think of a few reasons. you see that pattern:
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You have a warped perception of a place. There are lots of towns that had a bad reputation when I was growing up, but have since turned around completely, and it often takes a while for my perception to catch up to the reality. What do you mean hip young people are moving to Pittsburgh? This can also be a case of using county level statistics when you're dealing with the housing supply in a smaller area, the county is shrinking but [town] is growing.
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The industry in an area is shrinking overall, but the jobs that do exist are shifting, so the housing stock is shifting as well. You have a town that used to have a cardboard box factory employing 1,000 people at an adjusted wage of $25,000/yr, 1,000 houses were built to accommodate the workers. Now that factory only employs 500 people at an adjusted wage of $50,000/yr and a SaaS payroll company opened up an office in town where they employ 100 people at an adjusted wage of $100,000/yr. On the one hand you'd say well there's 1,000 houses and only 600 workers, there's plenty of housing! On the other, you'd say all the existing housing was designed for a worker making $25k, and there's no housing for people making $100k. The old, bad, factory housing is a decrepit slum at the same time that the new shiny stuff is being built.
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Shifting tastes. Greater sprawl is more in fashion with online shopping and less socializing, there's less need to reach amenities, so you see rural housing on large acreage sold as a luxury good, no neighbors is awesome and it doesn't really matter that you can't get to the mall. Flip side, apartments and dense mixed use developments are more in fashion among a different subset of buyers, who highly value being able to walk to get a quart of milk or a beer, and don't want to spend their Saturdays on lawn care.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
22hr ago
We're hearing increasingly unbelievable things coming out of the DoW about each Iranian operation. I can't say with any confidence which things are untrue, or what the truth is, but the credibility given to the official story is dropping rapidly.
Increasingly, I can't offer any alternative theory, because I don't know anything other than what is being said by two (or three) untrustworthy participants in the war. But it's like reading an /r/relationships post, at some point you decide the whole thing is bullshit.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
22hr ago
Gay couples having kids really is a bad thing. It’s obvious girls are just different. I see it every time my gf does little baby talk with her cat. Men just don’t have that silliness where they can actually have fun doing dumb kid stuff for hours every day. Mothers are different.
You need to broaden your horizons.
Neither I nor Mrs. FiveHour have the baby talk skill. This is concerning for our offspring, but we'll figure it out.
Human experience is broader than you and your girlfriend.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
22hr ago
If you spend a lot of time with men entering dementia, it's pretty clear they're two sides of the same coin. Some old men shuffle quietly around, mumble unclear platitudes, and try to be unobtrusive and confusing enough that no one can figure out that they have no idea what is going on. Others get angry, yell, insist that they know what is going on; this works as a coping mechanism because eventually the rest of the family or the people at the nursing home realize that there's no point arguing it'll just upset grandpa more so let's just agree and then we'll figure it out once he's out of earshot.
Both are extremely problematic behaviors in the white house.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
As for Iran, there is no reason why they would not believe a threat that was worded more calmly. If anything, I think a calm-worded threat would probably seem more plausible to them.
Honestly, the 4d chess argument I can come up with for this is that Trump is actively trying to make sure the war does not come to a diplomatic conclusion, and as such is utilizing a mix of insults and obvious bluffs to convince the Iranians to stay in it.
Related to my conspiracy theory that this entire adventure is designed to let some air out of the stock market bubble, on the theory that the AI investment process needs to continue in order to achieve AGI, but that a catastrophic sudden bubble pop would torpedo the whole industry, so they needed to do something to bring down the stock market slightly prior to the bubble.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
The difference is that lawyers and doctors are relatively evenly spread geographically.
Where NYC is crawling in finance bros, and the bay area is full of tech bros. There's a vast horde of guys all working in the same field at the same companies who went to the same colleges dominating the social and romantic market in these places.
You never have the same phenomenon of seemingly EVERYONE working in medicine or law, outside of colleges for those progressions.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
I'd like to think it's a successful example of seeing through bait.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
2d ago
Clausewitz wrote that it's best to threaten the same thing on the same conditions repeatedly, with increasing levels of distress, it imparts seriousness.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3d ago
I'd add the qualifier consistent high volume winners.
It's one thing to take a chance where you see one, it's another to produce enough ideas to run a fund.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
4d ago
Predicting Democrats won't fumble a good position is bad epistemic hygeine.
Like predicting the Jets to win a super bowl.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
4d ago
I would say it's divided by the question of virtue.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
4d ago
We're in agreement that firing officers when things are going badly can be the right thing to do.
What's blackpilling to me is that this is a strong bayesian update that things are going badly.
I don't entirely buy the DEI explanation, I don't think the friction of changing horses mid stream would be worth it to do right now. Even replacing a mediocre or bad general incurs costs in chaos and readjustment, the "where's the bathroom" problems, which I don't think we'd do in wartime.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
4d ago
Trump seemed to ramble something about the Ford getting hit by missiles and drones from 17 different directions during a speech recently, but the whole thing didn't make much sense.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
4d ago
That's an interesting thesis, but a key theme in it is that there has been a fuckup. My general view is that the Lindy effect rules in leadership: changes beget changes and indicate failure. When you change leadership there is instant friction.
Complicated by CoS being more administrator than commander, so it's more just increased friction on the back-end than replacing McClellan with Grant on the front line.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
4d ago
The reported reason is culture stuff, George wasn't implementing anti-DEI measures as aggressively as Hegseth wanted.
But that feels like something you do in the off-season, not right before a playoff game.
I'm really blackpilling here.
Is there any precedent for the Army Chief of Staff being fired during wartime?
I can't think of anything since the civil war that comes particularly close.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
5d ago
I don't know that any of them were any more useful than tits on a bull, but it's telling that none of us are concerned.
Throw in the Army Chief of Staff I guess.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
5d ago
Maybe he was plowing the Army Chief of Staff
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
5d ago
What do Pam bondis husband's tits look like?
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
5d ago
You've never met a really good manservant then!
I mean I'm not @grandburdensomecount or @2rafa I don't have a valet. But I've definitely interacted with people in service roles who gave off that "this is what we're doing" vibe. Barbers and waiters come to mind. Mechanics as well.
A really confident barber tells you what you want to do with your hair, informs you that this is how we do things in this shop. Yes you want to trim your eyebrows let me do that quick. No you can't cut your hair that way it will look gay. Now sit back while I do the massage with the vibrating glove from 1950.
There's a whole trope older than dirt of the strong willed servant who dominates his weak master, by his sheer frame.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
5d ago
Noem, Kent, Bondi.
Gabbard's office has been essentially sidelined as well, but she's still there.
Are there more I'm not thinking of?
And if Israel bombs Iran, what happens?
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