coffee_enjoyer
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User ID: 541
coffee_enjoyer
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2hr ago
It’s the same route according to a Bloomberg journalist reporting on Gharibabadi’s interview, and the same graphic was used in Bloomberg reporting as of two days ago, a report written by the same journalist.
According to Iranian authorities
And WH refuses to respond about it… to Fox News of all outlets.
known for pants on fire lies on countless occasions.
Is that even true? Has anyone compared the number of false statements by our President vs by official Iranian channels?
your link has zero connection with your claim.
So, who do you think struck the Kuwaiti tanker near Omani waters? The ghost of Ahura Mazda?
coffee_enjoyer
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4hr ago
Goldman is extrapolating from Kpler data with the assumption that Kpler’s estimates are artificially low. Goldman is assuming: because Kpler’s estimates from months ago were later revised to be higher, this means that their estimates this week should also be revised higher. This assumption is speculative and IMO unwarranted. Kpler’s data from months ago was revised because AIS-off transfers were relatively new, but since then they have been tracking crossings by other means, like with satellites. Kpler has not announced in any of their publications the belief there is a large amount of dark shipping through the strait which they haven’t been able to count; they can find ships before and after they pass through even if the passing itself is dark. Maybe there is something more happening (how would anyone know but a guy on the shores with binoculars), but it’s telling that Kpler has never mentioned such a prospect to anyone or in any publication, as far as I can tell. If someone has access to the full Goldman report, that would be cool to check why they actually think it’s warranted to revise the Kpler data upward.
Iran and Oman recently agreed in principle on a route in which ships pass through Iranian waters, only barely passing through Omani waters. The Iran-Oman agreement bans US warships. There continues to be ships struck in the strait. Kpler has only been able to confirm transits through Iranian waters recently. The authoritative information is not looking good.
coffee_enjoyer
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6hr ago
UN member states recognize Palestine and Israel recognizes Gaza and West Bank as comprising one singular territory per Oslo II XXXI
coffee_enjoyer
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6hr ago
That’s complicated by the cessation of the British Mandate, the question of who has the right to declare nationhood post-Mandate, and the tactics of newfound Israel. It’s a complicated question with opinions, not a “simple fact”.
coffee_enjoyer
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7hr ago
the simple fact that it wasn't a war Israel started fact.
That depends on whether you consider the taking of your land to constitute an act of war; generally speaking, taking over someone’s legally-recognized territory (see West Bank) constitutes an act of war. So that’s not a simple fact, it’s an opinion.
coffee_enjoyer
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1d ago
some underlying logic, some theory of demographic-based moral responsibility
Your own personal identity is a variation of your group identities. Genetics and culture decide much in life, and you qua your unique self did not choose either of these. You yourself, as a individual saying “I freely choose to do so-and-so”, have your interests and inclinations in large part chosen for you by your genes and culture, things preordained before you could talk. The deep you within which speaks inside, though you may construe it as totally unique, is significantly informed by the groups which you belong to, meaning that you share some of your identity with other people in your groups, as inheritors of identity. This means that sometimes when a person in your group does something good, the he who did it is the same you within you, and that fraction of the responsible identity is one and the same. And when someone in your group does something bad, sometimes it’s the same you within you, too. Sometimes, not all the time.
We can consider pitbulls and the concept of moral luck. You could have two genetically-cloned and culturally identical pitbulls, but only one savagely bites someone because of a random sequence of events (a particular noise and scent occurring at the same time, a mental fatigue of the dog, anything). This pitbull needs to be put down or sent to a farm upstate. But what about the other pitbull? The specific identity attribute of the pitbull in question — the fact that his identity is “I’m a dog that bites” — is shared completely with the cloned pitbull who didn’t bite. Why is the other pitbull blameless? Why is he not responsible? If it’s merely because of chance, then it’s weird that we are ascribing moral blame upon the biting pitbull for no other reason that a random sequence of events, while his cloned brother gets just as many goodboy pats as before. This would mean that we’re killing one dog and loving another due to a dice roll. It may be more reasonable to conclude that both pitbulls are responsible, because both share the same identity of “I bite humans”, and this is how we see sophisticated polities govern when they breed-ban pitbulls.
Genetics and culture work similar to the pitbull question, in part, because we know that certain good and bad traits are inherited, meaning the identity-portion-in-question is shared within a group. Terence Tao may live in Australia, but no aboriginal Australian (near as we can tell) could ever do what he does. But there are certainly other Chinese who come close. Why shouldn’t they feel proud of Tao? They see part of their identity in Tao, parts which led to his achievements. If those parts of Tao are not responsible for his achievements, then it would be wrong to attribute responsibility to Tao himself for his accomplishments, because it was actually just luck; or else it would be wrong to attribute responsibility to Tao because Tao-the-identity is mostly not his achievements. “This medal is given not to Tao, whose identity is all over the place, but only to the 1% of Tao which is the few extra IQ points separating him from those similar to him in China”.
Further, if the function of “responsibility” is to assign praises and demerits to people for the purposes of rewards (for the purposes of felicity in the longrun for the group and/or species), then it makes a lot of sense to think in terms of groups. A culture is good and should be praised so that it can increase so that felicity increases. A group is good and should be praised so that it increases so that felicity increases. Considering groups can hasten the increase in felicity, as we can more accurately determine which collection of individuals should be increased or given so-and-so privileges in a way that helps the world.
But! I think there are important reasons why we should abstain from thinking this way too much. Genes which are really good sometimes can be really bad some other times. Novelty-seeking may produce someone really skilled, or an adventurer, but it may produce someone who gambles too much or gets into drugs. I’m sure there are many interactions like this. We want crazy people who will make good films of music, even if these genes are bad 4 out of 5 times. So this is why we should be reluctant to consider group responsibility too much, without looking at the whole picture. William James and Darwin had family histories of mood disorders, genes which were highly adaptive in their own particular variations. Another reason is that you don’t want clans to develop, and they would probably inevitably develop if people start focusing on their last names.
coffee_enjoyer
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4d ago
John Kiriakou for sure, although I still love him.
coffee_enjoyer
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5d ago
There were already communist influences in the press and investigations on this in 1955, the NYTimes alone getting dozens of subpoenas, the same newspaper that immediately started reporting on Till:
https://time.com/archive/6799287/the-press-eastland-v-the-times/
Communists in 1955 had specific plans to agitate about the Emmet Till case:
Their plan in 1954 was to agitate Blacks against the anti-communists: https://www.marxists.org/history/usa/pubs/political-affairs/1954-10-33-10-political-affairs.pdf
Literal communists in 1955:
Negro press have sounded the alarm. If this important struggle is to be won, however, the Communist Party, and the American Left, in the first place, must be fully mobilized
Now, in 1955, it’s possible that their explicit intention was not to be anti-white as much as to rile up Blacks in a way that makes them hate White people. But who knows?
coffee_enjoyer
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5d ago
And how often do you hear about blacks killing other blacks today, in the hood, over disputes about their girlfriends being mildly sexually assaulted? How often do you hear about an all-black jury letting a violent offender go free? When the academic studies came out showing that black juries discriminate against white defendants and vice versa doesn’t happen, did you even read that anywhere? Was it reported nationally by NYT? In any case, in 1955 the black homicide rate was 10x higher than the White, and if you looked at how they lived you’d probably categorize it as a ghetto colloquially.
coffee_enjoyer
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5d ago
Emmet Till
Even back then, the media would selectively highlight certain events to make the public pattern-match for a narrative that doesn’t exist. They arbitrarily created a negative valence around “White racism”, which naturally resulted in negative valence around White people and their civilization. This is the sort of thing you can easily prove in a lab: gather a bunch of people to read something every day for a week, and variably present them with stories such that when they see the word X it is often immediately associated with something aversive or else it predicts something aversive. The former is called evaluative conditioning and it’s resilient to counter-conditioning; when the progressive college student in 2020 would scroll headlines and quickly read “White cop shoots Black woman in Chicago”, “why White privilege is worse than you think”, I mean the headlines were so over-the-top I can’t even recreate them with skill, they were essentially being brainwashed in a scientifically predictable fashion. Staats & Staats (1958) trivially conditioned positive and negative emotions onto nationality words in this way (which probably used evaluative conditioning more than Pavlovian conditioning). The problem was heightened when people trusted the news and entered a trance state when consuming the news. It’s simply that the wrong people were in charge of the media, which is effectively a conditioning device for the masses, and whoever was controlling the media really wanted to instill a reflexive dislike of White people and their things. Virtually all of the problems are downstream from media conditioning (academics also really like absorbing media and are perhaps a bit more gullible than the average bear).
[Just regarding Till specifically: if you were to go into the hood and grab the hand of someone’s girlfriend (not even wife), and then chase her to grab her waist, there’s a good chance you will be shot and killed. This was always a non-story, and note that the media would never report on the phenomena that nearly all cross-race rapes between Whites and Blacks involve a White female victim. This is because they’re not interested in telling you a horrible fact of reality, they are trying to condition you in a certain manner.]
coffee_enjoyer
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8d ago
The ships getting through, ~11 per day on average the past 7 days, do not appear to be using the Omani corridor or the previous official corridor. The confirmed crossings are through the Iranian corridor. Scrolling down all the way to Aug. 7th, they’re sticking to the Iranian corridor. Sadly Kpler is not forthcoming about what non-Omani and non-TSS “undetermined routes” means. I don’t know why, because they have sophisticated satellites for that kind of thing.
These guys seem to know what they’re talking about: https://maritime-executive.com/article/iran-claims-to-turn-back-chinese-tanker-and-continues-to-detain-uae-vessel . The Maritime Executive… I love it.
The Maritime Executive today has the largest AUDITED circulation in the maritime industry. Its unique perspective and unfettered approach give readers something no other publication can provide – Intellectual Capital of the highest order. Published six times a year, each issue contains a comprehensive Case Study and Executive Interview along with in-depth analyses of key industry issues and trends.
This is enough for me to trust whatever they’re going to say; I love how they capitalized audited. Look at their 404 page, glorious. These guys are unlikely to lie because unlike a random journalist or Trump guy, they work in the industry and would feel compunction if their influence leads some poor sailor to die.
The information is consistent with several events observed by Windward, the AI maritime intelligence firm, and reports by Bloomberg. Windward spotted two China-linked tankers aborting outbound transits of the Strait of Hormuz. One, it says, was a Hong Kong-flagged VLCC that looped back rather than cross the Strait and that followed another Chinese tanker that turned back within a 24-hour period. It also reports that on August 19, an inbound Hong Kong-flagged crude oil tanker turned around mid-transit. It says the vessel, which was entering in ballast, was on the southern route, reporting its destination as the UAE.
So Iran made two southern-approaching ships turn back
Iranian reports are emphasizing the “violation of Iran’s maritime law.” It says the product tanker linked to the UAE, which was stopped on Monday, Amara (47,931 dwt), flagged in Liberia, is now being directed to Bandar Abbas. The ship had been inbound with ballast bound for Jebel Ali. Currently, it appears to be anchored near Larak Island in Iran. WANA says this is the first time that the Islamic Republic has explicitly declared the refusal to pay service fees as the reason for stopping a ship. Windward notes it is the first confirmed Iranian seizure since June 22, and because the vessel was empty, it says the interdiction seems consistent with a transit compliance or fee dispute.
So they’ve Hemingway’d at least one ship
variances in transits are consistent with the reports from Kpler, which said on August 18 that confirmed Strait of Hormuz transits were down 17 percent from the prior day. It reports six vessels exited and four entered, but five were on the Iranian route and none through the Hormuz TSS
Reaffirming Kpler. Also, I just looked and Kpler is uploading shorts on YouTube. That’s very funny to me.
coffee_enjoyer
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9d ago
CNN journalist David Goldman appears to be lying about what Kpler says. Kpler as of the 16th says —
Routing also remained constrained, with vessels using the Iranian Unilateral Scheme or undetermined routes, while no crossings were recorded through the Hormuz TSS or Omani routes […]
—
ships are increasingly making the passage
Kpler says ships are decreasingly making the passage: “traffic through the Strait of Hormuz weakened last week, with confirmed crossings falling 19.5% to 95 and reaching just three on 16 August”. IIRC in a previous exchange you were skeptical of unnamed sources speaking to Reuters, but perhaps even named sourced at CNN deserve more skepticism than that.
Iran is not going to toll the straits. Iran cannot toll the straits.
This is really the crux of the matter. If they have the munitions available, they will be able to destroy some or most of the ships passing through the strait outside of their corridor. This is very taxing to us, and unlike the Iranians, we are not an ethnoreligious theocracy that worships inglorious death, so we are less willing to suffer than Iran.
coffee_enjoyer
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12d ago
When I researched this some time ago, a lot of heroin users would describe the high as being tucked into a warm bed after a long day of walking in the rain.
coffee_enjoyer
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12d ago
Oh yeah. When I was a kid we would ski at a place that had a small lodge all the way at the top of the mountain. Had to take two lifts up, could barely see or hear anything with the wind sweeping up the snow, you’d be cold and exhausted then enter a cozy lodge with a fire, wooden benches, freshly cooked curly fries… somewhat paradisal
coffee_enjoyer
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12d ago
What are some irl parallels to the pleasure of a horror game “save room”?
coffee_enjoyer
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13d ago
It works for a ton of people. There are still a lot of people who believe👏all👏trans👏women and consider misgendering a grave and harmful sin.
coffee_enjoyer
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13d ago
Kamikaze attacking the viral story of “youngest black Cambridge professor, lauded by university, was actually a manipulative liar” was the optimal choice for a culture warrior intent on destroying the enemy tribe. His enemy has lost the ability to use him as an example over the next couple decades because the left can now shut it down with [you’re apeaking ill of the dead] and [this kind of bullying Literally Kills People]. There’s nothing he could have done with his life to forward his cause more than this; any plausible alternative would only compensate for 1% of the damage whereas his final act mitigates perhaps 70% of the damage.
coffee_enjoyer
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14d ago
He lived the life of an ardent political extremist and killed himself on his last mission to prevent greater damage to his cause. In a way, that’s actually admirable. It’s like Mishima’s seppuku, or the Croat Praljak drinking cyanide immediately after his conviction for war crimes. But I don’t have any compassion for people who write things like —
”The challenging of normative Whiteness is paramount in dismantling the cycle of inequality that permeates society. The persistent and operant nature of Whiteness within the Academy is enduring and depicts faculty of colour as deficient or incapable. The articulation of racialised experiences has become an instrument of empowerment for faculty of colour in an attempt to reclaim power and disrupt the operant tools of Whiteness.”
“Global resistances to racism and the Whiteness that sustains it must now consider the unrelenting labour, suffering and burden of this plight on Black communities continually tasked with the responsibility of extrapolating themselves from the inequitable stranglehold of White supremacy.”
Arday knows that he can’t destroy the West directly, but can do so indirectly by targeting their bleeding heart, their Achilles’ Heel. He’s a very smart enemy combatant. If he got his way he would cause more damage than almost anyone else. He was found out and did a 21st century hybrid warfare version of, like, sinking the flagship with himself on board so it doesn’t get in the hands of the French. Commendable in the sense of respecting an enemy, but definitely not worthy of any pity.
coffee_enjoyer
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14d ago
I’ve been exploring Shia music (of “Shia rave” fame). They essentially have their own version of the traditional Christian Passion genre, but for their own central religious tragedy event. Most of it is junk but I found some that are good:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=2l-Zm1brSag ; https://youtube.com/watch?v=kKwEWCckfvA ; https://youtube.com/watch?v=8M84TFhPj5s ;
In Iran this is tied at the hip to the theocracy. The same singers who lead the religious songs also sing the regime propaganda songs and some songs simply combine the two together. These are, apparently, wildly popular in the Shia world.
coffee_enjoyer
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15d ago
Before straining to love enemies and the outgroup, Christians should first aim to love friends and brothers. I’ve seen many discussions online about the antisocial climate of American churches, that they lack a genuine community, and my relatives have had similar complaints. The studies on church attendance are grim. If the average churchgoer does not find brotherly love at his church, that’s a more serious problem than whether his love extends to enemies and tribe-traitors and the like. Loving enemies is the great heroic ask of Christ within the context of giving away clothes and willingly being slapped. Augustine (iirc) mentions this rule and is adamant that yes, it’s really possible and we have to do it, which is evidence that in his time it was considered somewhat improbable. But preceding it in importance in the Sermon is the rule about brotherhood:
But I say to you that everyone who is angry with his brother will be liable to judgment; whoever insults his brother will be liable to the council; and whoever says, ‘You fool!’ will be liable to the hell of fire. So if you are offering your gift at the altar and there remember that your brother has something against you, leave your gift there before the altar and go. First be reconciled to your brother, and then come and offer your gift.
How many today have true “brothers in Christ” for whom this would even be applicable? I think very few. Friends who happen to be Christian, of course, but it’s uncommon to have Christian brotherhood, ie an intense fraternal bond mediated by religious camaraderie. Yet this was supposed to be the characteristic social relationship of the faith. Tertullian in 200ad wrote —
“Look,” they say, “how they love one another” (for themselves hate one another); “and how they are ready to die for each other” (for themselves will be readier to kill each other). Yes, their indignation at us for using among ourselves the name of “Brothers” must really, I take it, come from nothing but the fact that among them every name of kinship so far as affection goes is false and feigned
Well, modern Christian statements about love seem “extremely false and feigned”. There’s not a lot of love in churches. There’s more love at a Juggalo gathering or a Grateful Dead parking lot. That is my read on it, at least.
coffee_enjoyer
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17d ago
Is any there a reason why similar findings are not being discovered with Chinese AI?
coffee_enjoyer
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17d ago
The difference between SkyKing and CarKing is the difference between justice and injustice. SkyKing was actually discriminated against and was owed the chance to be a pilot. CarKing is not discriminated against and is not owed the right to take a fancy car. SkyKing protested against discrimination that impacted his career; CarKing wanted to own something fancy for status.
Your post is like saying, “the widow of an innocent man hanged maliciously is angry just like the widow of a guilty man hanged, therefore she must be in the wrong”. This doesn’t make sense. One is a matter of justice and the other is not.
coffee_enjoyer
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18d ago
What’s a good Sam Kriss passage / article?
coffee_enjoyer
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18d ago
Pursue wellbeing for your collective according to how humans are designed, which is as a social species with mandatory requirements for felicity. This is what “love your neighbor as yourself” means, but neighbor should absolutely not refer to those merely around you or those in your economic zone blob, unless you want to destroy love itself and all morality. The greatest commandment — to love God with your All — is a requirement to truly love neighbor under a sufficiently intelligent understanding of human evolutionary design.
What song from a video game, anime, or film best conjures the sense of glory to you?
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