coffee_enjoyer
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User ID: 541
coffee_enjoyer
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4hr ago
No, they did not attack Israel until Israel attacked them first. On October 8th they fired some volleys at Lebanese territory, in the Shebaa Farms area, which is definitively not Israeli territory. These were symbolic attacks, on their own territory, which did not even harm any of the invading Israelis who had built illegal outposts there. Israel responded by attacking Lebanon.
coffee_enjoyer
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4hr ago
And if they decide to do that, we can expropriate the wealth of their loyalists in America and allow Israel’s neighbors to invade with the help of our military intelligence. Why shouldn’t we do this? The threat of losing the land traps them into doing what we want.
coffee_enjoyer
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5hr ago
Impossible to penetrate Russian society today. FSB goes after oligarchs like Browder, they are heading further in the direction of Christian nationalism, etc. If they flee to Russia they are surrendering their influence.
coffee_enjoyer
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5hr ago
I’d like to see America exercise complete control over Israel. We have their billionaires, we have their Haredi baby factories, we are holding their militant neighbors at bay, and we should be justly rewarded for this. America should completely take their tech sector. We should not allow a single tech company in Israel; they should be coerced into coming to America to do business. This is something that it’s in the realm of possibility as America becomes increasingly anti-Israel, though not anytime soon. I don’t see a good reason why we shouldn’t treat the country as a kind of serf state, whose citizens only work to support the prosperity of America. What are they going to do, go to Han-supremacist China or FSB-controlled Russia? They are trapped with us. If we can manage to wrangle back control of the country we can really exploit them for everything they have.
coffee_enjoyer
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1d ago
The Right doesn’t understand how political convictions are formed. Political convictions are reflexive emotional responses developed through repeated conditioning with powerful stimuli, and are also vicariously learned through socially-modeling attractive activists (using the primitive heuristic of “imitate the high status”), and similar things. Facts do nothing. Facts do something for 2% of the population who have a particular temperament. For everyone else, their views are the result of multimedia conditioning. This entire report is less persuasive than one popular singer at a concert making a ten second remark, or one short segment in their favorite TV show. So to answer your [3], nothing will happen. If the UK wants something to happen, they need to put out multimedia about this event which successfully conditions an emotional response. Essentially they need to produce the reverse of the Adolescence Netflix show. And then they need to find beautiful women with personality disorders to cry sympathetically about the event, while receiving positive attention and praise afterward, so that others will model this behavior.
coffee_enjoyer
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2d ago
With this wording, I don’t see Trump fulfilling his obligations in good faith after he already obtains the valuable concessions in the timetable. That means the $300b will never to to Iran, the frozen assets will never be handed over, and the sanctions will never be cancelled. Practically, the deal says “we will pressure Israel not strike Lebanon while we clear mines for 30 days and while you let ships pass for 30 days after that”. So, the deal seems good for America, as they get to de-mine the strait and let shipping go through for 30 days.
coffee_enjoyer
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2d ago
He retweeted something about being Orthodox today. And also he’s a kashrut-observant Shabbat-keeping Yeshiva grad, so the odds of him not being modern orthodox is really low. I’m not arguing that Franco’s message should have been sent, by the way.
coffee_enjoyer
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2d ago
He is, but I don’t know if Franco knew that.
coffee_enjoyer
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2d ago
Steelmanning why Franco may not want to work for Jews: outside of reform circles, religious Jews contribute to the lobbying efforts of the greater Jewish community through obligatory dues at shuls, Chabad membership fees, and volitional donations. Working for a non-reform religious Jew means that your labor will likely go toward the lobbying efforts of the Jewish community. What do they lobby for? For Americans to die for Israel, for the starvation of Palestinians to go unnoticed, for costly wars, for the maintenance of the holocaust as a foundational story in the West, and for special admissions of their own group in the Ivy League. (Steelmanning why someone would prefer to work for religious non-reform Jews: their businesses are likely to do well, and they are certainly going to be anti-degeneracy.)
coffee_enjoyer
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3d ago
Cash only matters to fertility if you give it to men. If you give women money it decreases their fertility. (Income levels don’t represent this because they have class and health baked in, so they’re not equivalent to cash infusions). There is no feminism-tolerant solution to the demographic decline. The closest is to hyper-venerate motherhood and censor media and education accordingly. This gives women a status advantage, even an advantage over men, eg men will always be sweet and helpful to women and they would be helped first in crises as in the Victorian era. But women would then need to be restricted from obtaining status via non-maternal means, ie they need to be shamed if they have a good job.
coffee_enjoyer
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3d ago
“80% of their missile facilities are gone” is not equivalent to taking out 80% of their missile facility capacity. This is a linguistic trick that the administration used for morale. The most important facilities for their missile production are below ground in the missile cities. The easier and less sensitive production facilities are above ground, in a plurality of smaller facilities. Those last 20% of facilities may absolutely dwarf the remaining 80% in importance and complexity.
coffee_enjoyer
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3d ago
What is your source that we had destroyed most of their missiles and launchers? And why would the NYT of all outlets lie about it? We’re not talking Al Jazeera.
coffee_enjoyer
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4d ago
I imagine the CIA would have a team tasked to produce this report. Why wouldn’t the NYT see it? They’ve received leaks in the past.
coffee_enjoyer
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4d ago
US intelligence by way of NYT, WaPo
The fees (toll) has been reported here: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/irans-fars-news-agency-says-hormuz-maritime-fees-added-to-us-deal-last-minute/
coffee_enjoyer
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4d ago
He can increase public awareness on a variety of important topics: that increasing school funding doesn’t work; that hiring post-bachelors teachers is actually harmful, let alone unnecessary, for increasing performance in schools; that you can download free books on libgen and free scientific articles on sci-hub; that IQ should be a permissible factor in hiring; that corporations should consider bypassing the university system and just hire promising high school students; stuff like that. Just break through the Overton Window like the kool-aid man. Do it on live television.
coffee_enjoyer
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4d ago
It’s oil executives and experts who predict an economic catastrophe from a prolonged strait closure. This seems to be the majority opinion among those who know a lot about oil. Iran’s missile capacity has not been meaningfully damaged (only by 30% of pre-war levels and we should assume the remaining 70% is harder to target as tactics developed). The regime is intact and stronger than before. So we got into a ~ $100bil conflict, killed or wounded 400 soldiers, all just to kill an old cleric and sizably damage Iran’s economy. Iran benefits by getting a new tollbooth for their new strait in 60 days, weakening the American-Israel relationship, and plausibly weakening the American-Arab relationships.
coffee_enjoyer
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4d ago
It’s notable that Iran still has 70% of their missile launchers and missile stockpiles. This is something I was most interested in when the conflict started, yet I couldn’t find a good estimate on Iran’s ability to manufacture and retain launchers. But it’s the most important part of the equation! If they have the launchers, and the drones, they control the strait. That’s it.
coffee_enjoyer
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6d ago
How are you in the mood for Somali and Pakistani food so often that you can write the clause “whenever I’m in the mood for Somali and Pakistani food”? The mind of a foodie is beyond my understanding.
coffee_enjoyer
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6d ago
Perhaps the reason local sports are uncommon outside of city rec leagues (which I hear are weirdly competitive) is that we normalized professional consumer sports as the default male “sport” pastime. (Ignoring golf and video games). If we were united in hating them, then it would cease to be weird for unathletic adult men to gather for a casual game for the pure fun of exercise and socialization. Give me your tired, your poor, your fat masses yearning to play free…
coffee_enjoyer
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6d ago
To quote your handle, I think people should just opt out of sportsball culture. The reason celebrities are at the game is because the billionaire franchise owners want you to think it is important. If they can trick you into paying attention to it, they’ll make money selling you $20 hot dogs and your son $200 sneakers. They conspire with the gambling companies to steal even more from you. If it were legal and profitable, they would skin you alive to turn you into a sportsball and make your children fight to the death over it like in Mesoamerica. The telos of this phenomenon is recruiters scouring the earth to find remnant populations of prehistoric man in Dagestan or the Congo or wherever and dressing them up in the flag of civilized nations. What’s the point? A single backyard game of touch football with a random assortment of neighborhood figures is better for the country than all of the franchises combined. Even the steelman argument that there’s joy in seeing expertise — just go get hibachi, it’s cheaper.
coffee_enjoyer
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7d ago
The Russian Orthodox bishop who was recently found with cocaine in his car, although he may have been set up due to politics, is actually a good classical composer.
coffee_enjoyer
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7d ago
Do you think AI could be used to turn concept art into playable 3d games in the future? I wouldn’t call this “ai generated” in a negative way if it’s only handling the technical side but nothing on the artistic side.
coffee_enjoyer
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9d ago
I didn’t consider motor skills. But yeah, the idea is that you could break complex tasks down to following super easy instructions with flashing arrows and an image.
coffee_enjoyer
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10d ago
Will AI interface headsets allow people with Down Syndrome to perform complex occupational tasks? Could we see chefs with Down Syndrome in the future, being guided by Claude?
It does not seem to me that the super high IQ Israelis are the same as the super tribalistic Israelis. If we allocate tens of billions into paying and retaining the high IQ portion, then it concretely benefits America and is cheaper than defending Israel.
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