Hypersonics dont do shit. SSM intercept rates are low enough to begin with, yet they fail to consistently degrade tactical level CNC nodes meaningfully, let alone operational. The idea that Russian hypersonics will lock down the backline is entirely out of step with platform count and magazine depth. What is a hypersonic supposed to cripple, an airfield? A big tent labelled "HQ"? A carrier battle group? Russia throwing Shahed (I know they have a local name I refuse to use it because these worthless copycats need to be continually reminded that they prostrated before Iran to get ANFO tipped glorified microlights) is proof of total incapability, not genius adaptation.
Wunderwaffen don't matter. If Russia wants to really cripple the USA now, investing in flashy hypersonic shit that pops off a few times and then gasses out isn't worth it. That Poseidon thing sounds much better, since you can annihilate US/Western economic overmatch by choking off Panama, Suez or North Sea, not to mention cutting underwater cables or pipes. Pity that stuff is not sexy enough for the retards staffing the Russian MOD. Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is my wunderwaffen!
Copesnorting Ukrainians and cheerleaders are their own problem, but directionally they were never as bad as "rossiya stronk forever" antiwest ziggers whether DSA communist or antiwoke conservative. That doesn't mean the RUSSIAN theory of its path to victory is any more resilient. Russia force generation is "on pace" with casualties, and they recruit approcimately 20-30k a month. Math it out however you want, the Russian milbloggers are themselves bitching about massive losses for meters of dead dirt. If the AFU recruitment crisis is so abysmal and they're a shattered force with no men left, then why is Russia not just steamrolling back to Kharkiv or Kherson, the prizes won back early on. You have to make an affirmative case for your own theory of victory, and the Russian theory of victory has, ever since its inception, been "we can lose bodies forever". Their only major true victory in any war since founding was annihilating the Reich, and THAT had its own 'the enemy is on its last legs and we totally didn't lose the entire 6th to a useless siege' copesnorting.
Again, its fucking Ukraine. Flat empty land, equivalent rail gauges, fully mapped out, and literally the poorest country in Europe BEFORE the invasion. To fuck this up is fucking pathetic. Without nukes modern Russia would have been curbstomped to the dustbin of history like the failed traitors they were to the Kievan Rus and the Golden Horde. Muscovy delenda est.
Meduza confirmations of Russian KIA based on orbituaries were far more in line with Ukrainian estimates for casualties based on a 4:1 wounded to dead ratio, while Russia was just hilariously reporting "no casualties to glorious Russia, Kiev quakes in fear as we approach". Russia only started reporting casualties when Wagner untouchables were being killed. Ukraine also underreports their own casualties by massive amounts but the zigger smugposting about "well we still have missiles and tanks and people to throw so the west is clearly wrong about how much we are losing" is just neener neener loser shit. If you've got the resources then fucking win you useless shitheads. Either you're facing a tough opponent which explains your abysmal pace of advance or you're gassed out against a weakling. Dean writes that "all we have to do is wait for the enemy to lose the will to fight" is a great example of Bad Theories Of Victory, but "we can win but just choose not to" is a strong contender for the top prize of copesnorting. Its fucking Ukraine, a flat open land that used to be your own fucking territory and with compatible rail gauges. If fucking ziggers can't take on their bumfuck rural cousins then they aren't a great power exercising regional strength they're just the dying office boomer bullying juniors while whining about the good old days.
Russia can only do that because they punish deserters and disappearing into the Russian countryside sucks. US made the same deal for local allies in Afghanistan and every ANA proceeded to both defect to the taliban and demand asylum in the USA for the promised riches available to every ubereats rider. The EU making that offer just ends up with a shitload of refugees making demands for asylum from 'forced recruitment'.
If throwing thirdworlders into the war to cripple Russia is the objective, the easier thing to do is pretend to be a Russian recruiter and hire from the opposing tribe. You'll have instant fratricide if you get a Sunni Iraqi in the same recruiting office as a Shia Iranian, and the only way to stop them infighting will be to hire a mutually hated enemy like an Indian to be introduced. For the price of a Novorossiysk embassy officers annual Lada payments and an Air India flight, the west can flood Russia with "volunteers" that will murder each other on sight and leave the corpses for noble muscovy to deal with.
I honestly think that excuse from Russians (and Ukrainians) about not massing armor due to drones is just cope. They aren't massing vehicles tread to tread, mobility kills on vehicles are still overwhelmingly mines and artillery is for (great) effect. No, the slavs just suck at coordinating multi prong advances whether it is armored or unarmored, and doing ATV spam is proof of incapability not prudence. Russians certainly effected multi prong armored pushes in Kursk when the ground wasnt mined and torn to shit, and any massing being within artillery range is fucking criminal since you shouldn't be massing within 5km of a first line of contact and if you're rushing to wait under an enemys artillery range then you're fucked whether you're sitting in an ATV or a BMP.
Russian victim complex is as bad as SJW. Why is everyone mean to me after I belittled and degraded them at every opportunity. I am such a victim boohoo. Maybe thats why progressives love Russia, they love a victim narrative especially if its against the USA.
Ukraine isn't achieving any of their headline goals. DPR and LPR are basically North Korea, unreintegrable and a net drain on the patron. Russia also can't achieve its goal (rapid overthrow signalling rebirth of the empire) and is just seeing how long they can keep throwing racial minorities into the meat grinder to get a mission accomplished banner. I maintain that the Wests continued interest in Ukraine is not (just) to continue poking the bear but to ensure the bear doesn't get kidney punched and does a nuclear spergout. Leashing the dog is better than letting it run wild in its dying breath.
Its pretty clear from satellite imagery that Russian vehicle parks were drawing down rapidly, but the pace of drawdown slowing is largely to do with tactical evolutions. Russias strategy of infiltrate and airstrike identified strongpoints has no place for armor partially because armor has many more limitations but simply because there isnt anything useful available to call up: vehicle parks are dry, the vehicle operators suck shit, and generals cant coordinate for fuck.
I am curious as to what the CIA Mossad SIS info you cite is, because all evidence shows that Russia has lost the thousands of vehicles cited byOryx and has not meaningfully replenished their TOE, and there is no statement from any of those entities to the contrary. If the claim is that Russia has a strong reserve that it can spring forth when the moment is right, there us no evidence for that still: the 1st Guards Tank Army and 4th Guards Tank Division (fuck Russia for their inconsistent nomenclature) are not on the front and are still functionally degraded, sitting pretty in the LMD for propaganda purposes. Russian C2 is degraded by institutional incapacity and the adhoc nature of any push being scraped from whatever is present. There is no actual reconstituted Russian Bear waiting to roll over once Pokrovsk breaks.
Chinas support of Russia seems the most hilarious part to me. China is buying up Russian oil continually, but it is RMB-effected (nominally presented in USD terms) so the actual levers of international finance to punish either China or Russia are limited. Yet China does not provide explicit military equipment to Russia, instead selling dual use components and forcibly adapted shitty golf carts or ebikes for Russia to get blown up. If China was kinetically supporting Russia like North Korea did, Russia would get its thousand tank fleet immediately: there are about 2000 type 96 idling in mongolia visible from Russia, pristine tanks preserved in sandy but dry terrain, needing less to reup than even tanks atmosphere protected facilities.
Instead Russia gets alibaba Desertcross jeeps and suicide tier dirt bikes. If Russia had better frontline electrification they would get the fields of Light Electric Vehicles with 40 mile range that China produced in the hundreds of thousands back in the 2010s. I don't doubt that China is happy to see western treasure expended on internal conflicts far from its border, but China didn't need to start this fight. Its not like the US seems to care about China given that the US is busy preparing for a Venezuela regime overthrow (Monroe is BACK baby!) while China is gearing up for a new Sino Japan war.
Women who play dnd roleplay alot more than munchkin. Killing baddies is the boring part for girls, just like dialogue filler is boring for guys. The girls (including autogynephiliac men) I dm'ed for back in college were really into their female characters being put into near rape scenarios ("I remove my clothes in this prison to increase my stealth check roll!" "uh... ok...you can just stay in your enchanted leather..." "I roll for wisdom check if I remember that the enchanted leather is stealthy enough" "pass" "fuck roll again"). I know that a pbp forum had to offload all ERP because the main threads were getting clogged with sex roleplay and wasting turns for the rest of the party.
True that the girls never wanted anything to do with the guys playing. Creeps or munchkins are equally irritating. and the presence of a woman just makes that much worse. Though I have seen relatively healthy dnd groups among younger kids where girlfriends tag along just for shits and giggles, and thats honestly one of the best outcomes for an irl dnd session. Getting epic failstreaks to be funny requires good DM and good players and thats generally pretty rare.
Western world will be overrun with blacks who are incapable of running it but world-class in wrecking things, while also motivating them to do so by creating and incentivizing this animus
You just described Rhodesia and South Africa. Theres a fun discrepancy playing out here too: Rhodesia under a strongman shit the bed hard, South Africa seems to have collapsed into incompetent grifters stopping grift purely to spite other grifters.
No matter how much progressives cheer on blacks destroying hated wypipo institutions run by Those Other Whites, blacks will turn on each other at the power consolidation stage and often before that. Farrakhan and MLK, Zuma vs Ramaphosa, Tutsi vs Ibo, etc etc etc.
Looming demographic disaster is quite possible in aggregate, but survival can exist next to the chaos. Scott Alexander and his coterie of Aella rationalist adjacents can thrive in San Francisco isolated from the decay in Tenderloin and even if the rot spreads they just become islands floating in swamps. I visited a friend in Mumbai where his place was more opulent than estates of Indonesian tycoons, but all the windows had to be closed because it was surrounded by literal filth. Not that he would care because he would be rich eternally, probably off the backs of the peasants drowning in the filth out the back.
Everyone is dancing around the two issues that are verboten to explicate, especially in the USA: that a common overculture conflicting with libertarian sensibilities is a good thing for cost effective social organization, and that implementing said overculture onto culturally disparate populations inevitably requires sacrificing some forms of cultural identification which is impossible when cultural identification carries local power. 1950s postwar USA had a common commie enemy, a distinct life path that was socially sanctioned and available to most, and rising quality of life that could be enjoyed guiltlessly because envy was itself more transgressive than "greed".
Race is shorthand for culture, and much easier for progressives focus on race because it externalizes white blame onto immutable characteristics that therefore must be protected. Igbo and Yoruba are physically identical to outsiders but if I say that in Lagos I'd be lynched. Minnesota just had an election where the white winner Jacob Frey won by preaching unity across somali tribes and the somali contender lost because his tribes opponents refused to vote for him. Culture is what matters more, and even though race is the obvious proxy, it is imperfect enough to distract from tangible effects.
Obama was the genius that played both sides of the race angle: raised ENTIRELY white (his black father left him), dons a fro in college for black points and speaks legible jive for white curios and black hoodrats to feel equally comfortable with him. The significance of race died with him... until Michael Brown. I think Ben Shapiro is a dolt whose claim of right wing racial resurgence is only due to Obamas claim that "Brown looked like he could have been my son" is thin, but it did reflect an implicit race war rearmanent: shifting from grudging complaining to rahowa (directionally). The racialization of US politics (and all western politics are downstream of US politics like the fucking BLM shit in goddamn Berlin or Defund The Police in UK) is objectively a bad thing and any restarting of it is a fucking horrible outcome, yet the progressives insist on restarting it whenever they muster the brain cells to agree on an action befitting the progressive stack.
The phrase *women and children " brings up mental images of adult human females and children of both genders typically lower than puberty age. The actual "women and children" used in politically sensitive messaging like Palestinian populations attacked by Israel or refugee migrants to the west is actually dominated overwhelmingly by males of "indeterminate" but definitely postpubertal age, with the generous lower bound being 15 years of age and typically presenting as 17-25 year olds, which fits the legal definition of "child" if you flatten every bearded youth as a 17 year old.
When you see pictures of "women and children" refugees look for whether it is a candid shot and not a file or staged photo. The afghanistan evacuation c130 was a candid photo that revealed most "refugees" are healthy adult males, not sympathymaxxing weakling women or babies. Noticing that these adult males are the ones seeking help invites the question of where are the women and if the women are safe where the males are fleeing then why are the males fleeing to begin with.
Nothing woke BECAME popular, popular things became infiltrated and then woke and then shitty. Tumblr clapbacks are mistaken for dollar spend. No population of genderqueer women rushed to play Dragon Age 2 because they finally felt representation with Taash, women play hotter characters in MOBAs of all stripes, women were the ones that used the armor set change thing more than male players and women used it explicitly to make off meta but attractive outfits visible on their characters.
Look if you want to see what pop culture women spend money on that men don't its not girlboss Rey or Junker Queen fatsuits, its romantasy billionaire bedroom bestiality or instagram experience photoshoots. In China women spend hundreds on Imperial Banquet cosplay dining experiences where they are dressed as noble consorts to be served hand on foot by nubile waitresses in delicate filigree.
Women applaud inclusive options for a theoretical other woman that wants to be catered to, but they aren't going to spend money at the Lesbian Collective Art Fair themselves. At the much maligned dashcon 2014 there was much clowning on the genderqueer performative identity panels, but what the girls attending were REALLY fired up on was the discussions on superwholock slash. Woke shit is just signalling, actual consumption is marginal at best.
When Kabul fell to the Taliban, there was a widely shared picture of an overcrowded C130 filled with refugees. I love that picture because it is FULL of men, with barely any women or children. I contrast that with the fall of hanoi where evacuees had women and prepubescents. My liberal friends actually had to stop for a second to wonder what "women and children" really meant, and anytime refugees got raised in any conversation subsequently they all bit the bullet immediately before I could play the photo card.
Its how pop-pop showed he loved me back in the day and Ol Joe gotta keep up the good old ways. Plus their hair smells of strawberry and its just so nice you know.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/11/dungeons-and-dragons-elon-musk/684828/
In This Thread, 2D3D Wonders Why Race Concern Shit In Pop Culture Still Matters
So, Elon Musk apparently had a spergout over WOTC because WOTC apparently did a faerun land acknowledgment and apologized for racially essentializing... well, anything (or everything, I can't tell).
Per the article,
After a designer at Wizards said that the company’s priority now was responding to “progressives and underrepresented groups who justly took offense” at those stereotypes, and not to “the ire of the grognards”
And that made Musk tweet an implied consideration to buy out Hasbro, owner of WOTC. Perhaps he should keep away from napkins and lawyers for a few weeks, but WOTC staff and progressives have more to lose from a Musk takeover than Musks does if he accidentally commits to the sale.
My questiob is WHY do progressives still want to fight dead battlegrounds either lost permanently to the enemy or scorched to irrelevance.
I trust this forum understands the broad strokes enough to make a culture war summary unnecessary. Anything white nerds love must have more women and minorities and it must explicitly come at the expense of the white nerd favourites. Duke out details in the comments if necessary, the battle itself isn't the point.
The progressives won the previous round already. They got the victory lap of defeating racial essentialism by incorporating noble blacks, I mean orcs, in the rulebook a few years back. Vice, Kotaku, Polygon spammed articles about how this proves the rejection of white supremacy by the powers that be. Hooray for the Resistance, we are now the New Republic. Did I mix my factions? It doesn't matter, and apparently neither did the battle. Because WOTC still saw fit to dig up ancient corpses and put them on trial for heresy.
Except it is patently clear that the audience for this public shaming doesn't exist anymore. The volume of pop media culture wars has deflated in the face of victory, and perhaps Sydney Sweeney deadeyeing a millennial journo hoping for self abasement to atone for even being proximate to white advocacy is emblematic of how irrelevant this public opinion war is. You can, in fact, yeschad someone trying to make you feel guilty for not grovelling for zillenial approval.
But what exactly is the battlefield now? Racial/sexual/gender/whateverfuck representation? Moral ambiguity of 'bad' people unless the bad guy is generational trauma/white supremacy? Sinecures for adherents via "narrative consultancy"? Is the objective to win a battle or just to make noise.
Theres a destructive incentive structure here that I can't parse out fully. The unwoke are perfectly happy to sit back and be gradually edged out, as seen from the ready faggification of media starting with Will and Grace and reaching a high point (maybe) in Bridgerton where intraracial relationships are the enemy (maybe, I don't watch Shondaland slop). Or maybe the ongoing media projects where you can't have minorities be bad guys anymore - its always a white guy somewhere at the end pulling strings. Except if its Giancarlo Esposito.
Back to topic. The unwoke are silent dragged along consumers, the woke think they can accelerate the slide or celebrate the slide, suddenly reactionaries Notice and generate backlash, and the woke get smacked in. Retreating in confusion, they conclude that the issue is the message not being made clear enough, and the message is doubled down despite vocal opposition.
Rinse and repeat, but always back into defeat. Social justice went fucking nuts in 2016 because Trump descended from his golden staircase to snatch victory from Hilary Clintons anointed hands, and without the popular vote it seemed that this was merely a technical mistake, one that needed to be message disciplined to ensure the course of history is maintained. Biden won as a moderate but governed as a progressive because his brain turned to soup about a year in and the entire white house was Jill roleplaying Eleanor except without enough balls to lead a relatively competent cabinet, so the progressive staffers wrote every communique and channeled The Groups. Opposition was simply the last gasp of straight white men (and blacks and gays and women and asians and latinos and....)
Then Trump won, the illusion shattered for about a year. But now the same dead fights are being rehashed.
I don't really have a concrete point to interrogate in this culture war. My stance that any media featuring a minority front and center being likely to suck because it always means the writers room can't have room to criticize stupidity is enough for me to optimize my consumption because I'm an old moron and nostalgia for old shows from my youth gives me enough tinglies. Yet the strength of reactionary pushback to culture war attempts clearly shows that this is a conflict progressives seem intent on reigniting, and it should be clear that they not only lost the previous rounds but the upcoming battlefield is likely lost. The Dispatch sold a million copies and none of their characters were "body positive" in any way. Contrast that with Concord that literally was dead on arrival with their fat ugly minorities, making me wonder if the skirmishes being reignited are just masochists indulging in a public humiliation/victimization kink.
Texiera (author of The Emerging Democratic Majority) and on a meta level Fukuyama assumed the Obama ascension was a teleological endpoint: the old order of stale white christians is over, we have in our unconstrained state decided that a young charismatic black man with 00s liberal sensibilities and economic acceptance of "help us to help you" support. These commentators failed to predict that the neoliberal equilibrium would be actively disrupted from within by insurgents looking to seize the spoils for themselves. Texiera was sounding the alarm by the end of Obamas second term about the social justice movement cannibalizing public patience, and now Texiera is considered a nazi by whatever progressive commentariat exists.
Its probably something boring yet procedurally ruinous, like the party island being access capitalism at its finest and attendees not disclosing their presence. A guest list showing Pelosi at the same venue as Sheikh Iwantobuyalotofjets and CEO of myjetsareITARconstrained can be coincidence but its still fuel for congressional investigations.
"Children" to the modal mind is prepubescent innocents who elicit protective instincts. Definitionally it also includes adolescents that are protoadults. Conflating the two is necessary to get the moral value immediately realized, and any attempt at deeper examination is met with hysterical screeches of "ARE YOU A BIGOT". Refugees are always stated to be "women and children" but you never get a picture of these huddled masses because people don't process bearded males as "children". The assumption that Epsteins sex island was a San Francisco Armory dungeon filled with crying prepubescents being abused by leering rapists is as rampant as the assumption that Rittenhouse killed 3 unarmed black men, and of course equally as fictional.
Theyve been said before but theyre one of the few things still being said. Turns out "Trump is a racist nazi who wants to deport all brown people!" turns out to be the reason why he was voted in, so the attack angle must be retired. Maybe a few months later the progs will examine why that statement didn't work, but the priority is to find something that sticks.
Its just oppositional. Bill Clinton got a sloppy from an intern while Kennedy was railing Monroe. Hillbots emails are a nonissue but got traction because everyone fucking hated her. Progs managed to hold their nose about Bidens only "flaw" which was the crime bill, and cons had to dredge up Hunter Biden level irrelevance to attack him.
Trump has been in public forever and has a whole suite of weird shit that is somehow teflon. All that weird Ivanka sex shit is fucking cringe but no one gives a fuck. Epstein is a last gasp for the moment, and when it turns out no one gives a shit about a glorified party host that brought in groupies for boring losers people will cast about for other shit. Music groups are full of teen and even preteen groupies and they still get defenders. No one really cares about the crime, only the one they want cast as a criminal.
The word 'mother' is conflated deliberately in order to sneak into the protected category. Eventually a new semiformal term will be arrived at that is a shorthand for the intent. We got rid of nigger as a racial epithet but now 'urban youth' fulfills the similar negative shorthand. Get rid of 'mother' as a positive term by conflating it with trannies and we'll arrive at 'truebirther' as the new social term. Or something less stupid.
Insurgencies dont succeed on the back of material support, they succeed on the back of domestic opposition to the ruling class. Muslims in India largely seem tolerant of even the rising hindutva because it is patently obvious to anyone with functioning neurons that Pakistans brand of islam just results in shitty outcomes for muslims than even within india. This means that the calculus can flip however and just because muslims in India have been relatively peacable compared to naxalite tamil khalistan assamese guju violence it doesn't mean they are eternally docile.
And hostility can manifest in ways potentially more disruptive than war. Indian politics outside the hindi core are already a fragmented mess of local parties who barely hate their local enemies more than whoever is in/outside of Dehli. Bangladesh hosting dissident west bengali assamese or bihari political intellectuals calling for political localism against whoever happens to be in delhi will foment more fracturing than any direct action. Bangladesh isn't going to be a new front, but a 60 second tiktok reel can destroy Delhis political grip more than 3000 black jets of Allah.
Geography dictates that Bangladesh is a fucking terrible place to fight because it is filled with rivers and crossings are exponentially more difficult now. Indian victory is not an assured fsit accompli.
Nevertheless the bigger issue is not a hot war but Bangladesh harbouring Bengali agitators in Assam and West Bengal who play up Bengali grievances in local language. Dehli had enough problems with Tamils during the Sri Lankan civil war, and Bengalis outnumber Tamils by a comical degree. The Indian Army may be able to prosecute a campaign to clamp down any active Bangladeshi military adventurism, the GoI definitely can't handle a renewed ethnic conflict.
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Noble Russia only wishes to defend and kills invading Nazis by the thousand! Defensible line close to border, which is why the rush to Kiev was Just A Feint.
I can linkspam endless analysis from CSIS, UK MoD, Mediazone etc citing 200k+ dead and 900k+ total casualties, but you have already declared, in true Russian fashion, that the data presented cannot possibly match your perceived reality and thus the data is simply false. By charting out negative space in a positively affirmed stance - the claim is Russia has high casualties, but Russia has not collapsed, so Russia cannot possibly have high casualties - the positive affirmation is dismissed by claiming a negative. The affirmative case of Russia having collapsed is not the one being presented, but deliberate conflation serves to blur the boundaries of the argument and widen the counterclaim without needing to make a falsifiable claim.
Semantic games are irritating enough, but this conjuring of fallacies never actually employed by opposing viewpoints is not smart arguing, its cowardly retreating into "I never said that but you actually said something and you are wrong so I am right by default."
So, what is it you are claiming
or
I never said Russia losing a bagillion men will stop Russia, I have CONTINUALLY said thar Russia is extremely happy to toss minorities into the meatgrinder and that it can do so forever. I have always said that Russian C2 is a clusterfuck of ineptitude that prevents armor mass (which doesnt even exist anyways because Russian maintenance was is and always will be shit), that offensive operations are adhoc using whatever meat and alibaba junk vehicles can be scraped together, and that it is a slow attritional grind that Russia can sustain forever because sunk cost fallacy is the most consistent behavioral pattern of failed regimes everywhere.
I have staked my affirmative positions. I don't rely on casualty counts as first principles to justify a negative claim, I see Russian failure - defined against Russias own stated objectives and not the inferred "we are just defending ourselves" cope - and find ample proof of why they fail. I can do the same for Ukraine as well, since you can repeat ever C2 failure of Russia with how Ukraine absolutely bumblefucked their Zaphorizia offensive and their Kursk retreat, and those DID materially affect Ukraines theory of victory. The west also loves to imagine that Russia will break under economic pressure and valiant resistance because it keeps western hands clean, but whether thats a fiction they internally digest because they're incapable cowards or feckless warmongers is subject to. ones own biases. Its not like Europe has actually expended any of its actual warfighting equipment its doctrine calls for. Whether that doctrine is a good one is a different question, but the assumption that Russia is defeating the west by sacrificing the 1st Guards Tank Division for a bunch of javelins and legacy 152mm carted out of Bulgaria is just so adorable.
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