2rafa
2d ago
This guy has been showing up in my feed a lot lately, and I think he has a good perspective on the situation. Notably there's some history I didn't know: Xi Jinping's father was once "purged," but he wasn't executed, just removed from power for a while. He was eventually allowed to come back. So being "purged" is maybe not as severe a punishment as westerners might think
Many, maybe even most senior figures survived the cultural revolution - even people you ‘wouldn’t expect’ (some prominent former Shanghai capitalists who defected to the communists, the former Emperor, various ‘right wing’ (for the party) figures). A lot of the most extreme cannibalism type violence was local, centuries of ground-level hatred for the local kulaks incited by the red book and cadres into ultra violence type behavior. Senior figures often got humiliated and were stripped of rank and privilege, professors sent to dig ditches for 5 years, but they lived. Surviving a purge in Stalin’s Soviet Union was arguably much harder.
In general, Chinese Communism seems to be more willing to tolerate ‘genuine conversion’ than Soviet Communism was. It might something to with the history of face and deference in China, I’m not sure. You see it even with the Uighurs.
2rafa
2d ago
China’s Top General Accused of Giving Nuclear Secrets to U.S.
What are we to make of the latest major Chinese purge?
I am no seasoned China expert, but broadly Xi’s purges have fallen into three primary categories. The first is purges of those directly tied to his political rivals, most notably the Bo Xilai faction he defeated to achieve and solidify his grip on power. These have mostly been over for a while. The second is a combination of provincial and national anti-corruption initiatives that have targeted some of the most brazen graft; this is not to say no innocents have been targeted, only that there is a solid case that a lot of these purges have been at least semi-legitimate (friends of Xi and allies may not have been targeted, but many of those targeted were corrupt). The third involves more short-term and medium-term political and economic objectives, including temporary purges where the person or people in question are disappeared for a time, then brought back with renewed loyalty. We can presume they have been taught a lesson.
There are three major angles to looking at this purge, which are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
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Mild to Moderately Bearish: The current purge is wholly legitimate. That is to say one of the PLA’s leading figures and an erstwhile close Xi ally really was selling nuclear secrets to the US, which objectively means that the PLA was compromised at the most senior level. This isn’t unreasonable - the Western press in the last few days has discussed Zhang as a ‘key contact’ for Western military officials in China, which is surely code for ‘nobody’s surprised he was doing it’.
Yes, there’s a way of construing this as the removal of a tired old corrupt general and his replacement by younger, more loyal, more patriotic cadres (more on that below), but one has to squint pretty far for it if this is accurate; if the charges were known for a while but not acted upon, it suggests that Xi was fine with this going on at least for a while. The man was also 75 and could have been retired.
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Moderately Bullish: The general was not corrupt, but represented a generation of dim or mid-witted PLA sinecures unfit for any actual major conflict with a top-tier peer power (you know the one). A legacy of a poorer, more dysfunctional, more third-world, less capable, less advanced China, he has been replaced - even if he wasn’t corrupt - by smart younger men from the new China, the Deepseek China, the hypersonic missile China, men capable of actually defeating the USA in battle or at least of taking Taiwan without embarrassment. His removal serves as a warning - if you’re not ready, if you’re here because your uncle in the CCP got you a job in the military in 1974, get out quietly, don’t hang on, don’t challenge progress.
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Mildly (if at all) Bearish: The purge represents nothing more than another step toward Xi taking absolute power in China. Already the most powerful Chinese political figure since Mao, Xi wants full, absolute control of the military in the event of a crisis or conflict of any kind. Bearish why? Because he is getting older, and taking absolute power always comes with risks, even as a great man, especially at that age.
2rafa
2d ago
You’re mostly right. For the past decade a combination of central bank policy and inertia has artificially prolonged and further inflated the greatest asset pricing bubble in a century. Luxury hotel rooms in Bora Bora or the Maldives cost 8x per night than they did in 2010; everyone has more money, especially people with money. The current spike is froth with the vaguest geopolitical justification, but it doesn’t really matter. For a long time (since the end of 2017, really), if you were “smart” and conservative about the market, you lost out on immense gains as prices kept rising. So now nobody thinks they can stay out of the market, because even the bears have been burned so many times. So everyone’s in but, in the back of their mind, wants to hedge. Bitcoin will crash in a financial crisis, or at least is untested. Gold and silver did well in 2007-2008, we’ll pick that.
Interesting post.
The simple reason why it’s so hard to reverse large scale migration to the West is that it’s easy for people to arrive, and hard to make people leave.
We can describe this slightly more technically.
- Policy inertia, which includes things like the decades old international and domestic asylum systems being fixed in place while things like reversing jus soli or the immigration act of 1965 would require congressional supermajorities and or 60+ seat senate majorities respectively. In grandiose terms, this is a form of legislative anarcho-tyranny, in that it hampers the efforts of any conservative-on-immigration government.
- Affluent PMC liberals whose attitudes both implement and safeguard the above legal and related social order, “oh what you actually want to do something about that? Ew”.
Other groups have no real power. Salvadoran day laborers are not in power in America. This is important because it makes clear that ICE just raiding Texan farms is not enough. Yes, they should be doing more of it, and yes, they aren’t doing as much of it as they should because the Ag lobby is big and Republican.
But to win, maybe you have to bring the fight to middle class and upper middle class liberals in blue states. Maybe white progressive Democrats in Minnesota have to fear ICE. Maybe that’s what it takes.
Do you think Xi tolerates corruption in his allies as long as it does not attract attention?
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