2rafa
26m ago
Let’s say that by 2030, a significant proportion of global chip production has moved out of Taiwan. China invades or otherwise ‘reunifies’ (use whatever euphemism you prefer) with Taiwan, with minimal or no US intervention. What happens? What are the actual consequences for the world?
China has no stated designs on Japan or even South Korea. Their relationship with North Korea, which actually does have designs on the latter, has in any event deteriorated over the years. The “nine dash line” (or eleven for Taiwan) in the South China Sea is one of the few things both the ROC and PRC agree on as far as territorial claims go, so that isn’t affected - and it’s a much less emotive issue for Chinese nationalists than Taiwan is.
So all in all, why should America care?
2rafa
3hr ago
For men it’s usually implied when they talk about women in this way, they’re not envisioning an ugly tradwife.
2rafa
4hr ago
Mostly it’s just a way to learn more about your partner’s life and a jumping off point for further discussion
2rafa
4hr ago
I bet half of men would accept living a poorer lifestyle if it meant coming home from work to a sweet and stress-free woman who made delicious food with cheap healthy ingredients and beautified the whole house and wants to listen to how their day went.
I bet many women would accept a poorer and more boring lifestyle if it meant a handsome, kind-natured and faithful husband who was good around the house and yard, knew how to repair everything (and did it without being asked) and who devoted themselves fully to providing for and looking after their family (and not drinking or being abusive or cheating).
The reality of traditional marriage, of course, was that many husbands were not honorable or good around the house or happy being providers, many wives were not sweet or good cooks or great mothers. Advocating for traditional marriage is still reasonable, perhaps even desirable, but a simple fantasy it is not.
2rafa
4hr ago
In the end the economic success of the Gulf states is more about relative rather than absolute stability and quality of life. Dubai’s economic prosperity isn’t really reliant on rich people; most people - even in the ‘expat’ rather than indentured servant class - aren’t rich.
Instead, it just has to be nicer and more convenient than Russia or India or much of Africa. The middle class that sustain demand in Dubai don’t have Monaco or Gstaad or often even Singapore as an alternative - the alternative is Mumbai, Moscow, Nairobi, Baghdad, Baku, Tashkent, Dhaka.
The real question is how many missiles Iran actually has.
The Ukraine conflict has different dynamics - Russia proper isn’t being seriously bombed (the occasional Ukrainian gambit in Moscow aside, it’s just the border; it’s not like drone factories in the far east are being hit), and Ukraine is obviously being heavily supplied by the West, and Russia isn’t bombing German munitions factories either, again the occasional bout of sabotage aside.
In Iran, launchers, factories etc are being hit as soon as they’re identified by Israeli and US intelligence. There may be some resupply from Russia, but Russia is also allies with Saudi Arabia and has extensive diplomatic relations with the Gulf, so the extent of Russian munitions support may be limited by both that and the ongoing war in Ukraine taking priority.
How long can Iran’s conventional forces hold out versus how long can Trump hold out rising oil and LNG prices? That is really the question. For the Gulf, it’s better if oil spikes (this is why Qatar’s energy minister is now alluding to $150/barrel costs, which we’re nowhere near right now), so that Trump is forced to sue for peace, so that the attacks on the GCC nations stop. The ‘worst case’ for the GCC is a protracted collapse and IRGC remnant guerilla forces using Houthi strategies on the Hormuz.
San Francisco has a bad gender ratio for men, like New York has a bad gender ratio for women.
More options
Context Copy link