2rafa
4hr ago
But why don’t you ascribe any agency to Trump, here? You consider it necessary that one must have manipulated the other into war.
2rafa
7hr ago
From the recent Merz photo call:
The first question Trump's asked about the Middle East is if Israel forced his hand. "No, I might have forced their hand," he responds.
Referring to Iran, Trump says: "We were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion they were going to attack first."
"I didn't want that to happen," the US president says. "So, if anything, I might have forced Israel's hand."
2rafa
18hr ago
It’s certainly a very convenient defense going into midterms. I don’t think it makes a lot of sense though. From an Israeli perspective this is all 6-9 months too late. The IRGC is too deeply embedded to overthrow with a decapitation strike on the civilian/clerical leadership and the biggest protests in 30 years were quickly and mercilessly crushed a few months ago. Nuclear sites and stockpiles are dispersed and deep underground and it would take a nuclear strike or boots on the ground to have any chance of destroying them now.
The timing and other (eg WaPost) reporting suggests that MBS / the Saudis gave their go-ahead last week, which would be a major turnaround from the last two years of rapprochement with Iran on their part.
Possibly something to do with the negotiations; it was very interesting that even Oman and Qatar were hit by Iran.
If the US had taken out Saddam, picked another senior Baathist and told them to be a little nicer to the Shiites, and kept the Baathist army mostly in place, that could indeed have happened.
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