So Trump chickened out and said he’s making a deal, then Iran came out and said they’re not making a deal, then Trump clarified and said that actually it was Witkoff and Kushner, implicitly speaking to some third parties, who were relaying messages to Iran.
The markets are wobbly but I think this is the clearest sign possible that a unilateral Trump retreat is the most likely next step. If Iran keeps the strait closed or - more likely - extracts a hefty toll from anyone who wants to ship through it, that is something Trump can and will blame on others. He can say “we pounded them and killed the supreme leader” and that will be enough for the base. Gas prices can remain elevated but will trend downward over time.
@ me if this is all a feint in advance of a US invasion but I doubt it.
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So Trump chickened out and said he’s making a deal, then Iran came out and said they’re not making a deal, then Trump clarified and said that actually it was Witkoff and Kushner, implicitly speaking to some third parties, who were relaying messages to Iran.
The markets are wobbly but I think this is the clearest sign possible that a unilateral Trump retreat is the most likely next step. If Iran keeps the strait closed or - more likely - extracts a hefty toll from anyone who wants to ship through it, that is something Trump can and will blame on others. He can say “we pounded them and killed the supreme leader” and that will be enough for the base. Gas prices can remain elevated but will trend downward over time.
@ me if this is all a feint in advance of a US invasion but I doubt it.
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