AnonymousActuary
No bio...
User ID: 2163
AnonymousActuary
6mo ago
Yes, if you know you are going to deliver you should get as premium a plan as you can pretty much. If you need help with the calculations shoot me a message, I work in health insurance.
And yes, it's antiselection, and yes, the ACA kinda allows it, something something risk adjustment makes people whole something something.
AnonymousActuary
11mo ago
Reminds me of Kevin Williamson's support for hanging (though he opposes the death penalty). If we want the state to have the power of execution, we should have to confront the consequences. None of this pseudo medicalized stuff. Firing squad or hanging.
AnonymousActuary
1yr ago
I've always wondered if they realized:
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Lockdowns aren't going to get rid of COVID
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We've turned some decent percentage of the population paranoid
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We need that population to start doing things again or we kill the economy
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Masks work! Just wear a mask and you are safe to go around making and consuming Economics inputs and outputs!
But maybe that is too conspiratorial...it really was a huge switch though. The stated reason was that they realized the amount of presymptomatic/asymptomatic spread, but lots of illnesses have huge periods of presymptomatic spread (Influenza and RSV, notably), so not sure why that would have resulted in a change.
AnonymousActuary
1yr ago
entered the Covenant School via a side door
Once again, actually locking doors seems to be the anti-mass shooting low-hanging fruit
AnonymousActuary
4mo ago
he population of Russia dipped during WWII by about 10%
I don't have much substantial to add but just wanted to note that I hadn't seen Russian casualties during WWII laid out in percentage terms and I was honestly shocked it is this low. If WWII is somewhat a story of the US's vast industrial capacity and Russia vast population capacity combining together it was fascinating to see it laid out in such stark terms.
AnonymousActuary
5mo ago
Been playing the Divide and Conquer Medieval Total War II mod (https://www.moddb.com/mods/divide-and-conquer) and it is just spectacular. Full conversion mod that starts a few decades before the War of the Ring, has a ton of playable civs both lore accurate and a bit of a stretch, but it's just tremendous fun to charge your Dol Amroth Knights into Haradrim or mow down Goblins with your Elven archers.
And the first time Mumakil appeared on a battle map was legitimately a top 3 gaming moment of all time for me. Just complete shock and awe.
AnonymousActuary
11mo ago
This should be mandatory reading anytime we discuss drug pricing (I think on PBMs on consolidation you are likely right):
https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/09/07/reverse-voxsplaining-brand-name-drugs/
What was the worst thing that ever happened? One strong contender is Mao’s Great Leap Forward, in which ineffective agricultural reforms and very effective purges killed 45 million people. Most of these people were probably already adults, and lifespan in Mao’s China wasn’t too high, so let’s say that each death from the Great Leap Forward cost what would otherwise be twenty healthy life years. In that case, the worst thing that has ever happened until now cost 45 million * 20 = 900 million life-years.
Once again, RAND’s calculations plus my own Fermi estimate suggest that prescription drug price regulation would cost one billion life-years, which would very slightly edge out Communist China for the title of Worst Thing Ever.
Prescription drugs are an area with real breakthoughs occurring - some of the new biologics, Harvoni/Solvadi/the Hep C drugs, a lot of the HIV/AIDS drugs, Ozempic, and so on. That is a golden goose I am very hesitant to mess with given the relatively low portion of total costs they make up. The Alzheimer's drugs may end up being an exception to this....
AnonymousActuary
1yr ago
I have never seen a school that had doors that weren't locked from the outside after school hours. The problem seems to be actually locking them, not that they can't be locked
AnonymousActuary
9mo ago
I mean if you want a lot to churn through Brandon Sanderson seems like the obvious choice? Start with Mistborn or The Way of Kings
AnonymousActuary
1mo ago
First off, this would be the same methodology and population sampled as in previous years, so whether the total magnitude is correct the change should be relatively close.
I think there are a few contributing factors.
- The men's game is still quite popular, but the increase in NIL and one-and-done (or even none-and-done with the now-going-to-fold G League ignite or foreign teams) has meant that there are a lot fewer familiar faces year to year - in the women's game everyone plays for 4 years (or with COVID, 5 now) so people get to know them a lot better.
- Caitlin Clark is something of a singular force - people like deep 3s and guard play (Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Steph Curry are maybe the 3 most popular basketball players of all time) and she provides both in spades.
- There's a bit of a culture war anger with the LSU vs. Iowa, Angel Reese vs. Caitlin Clark, (or as in the previous game), America's sweethearts versus the basketball villains: https://www.latimes.com/sports/ucla/story/2024-03-29/ucla-lsu-america-sweethearts-versus-basketball-villains LSU's coach being an accused homophobic trump supporter just makes it even more culture warry.
AnonymousActuary
1yr ago
I think Stefferi is right if he is talking about expectations for the vaccine before the first trial results were released. Especially focusing on scientific expectations, not the partisan "If Trump release a vaccine before the election it'll be rat poison".
AnonymousActuary
1mo ago
It’s absolutely wild how much sortition is involved in the U.S. For a New York resident to visit, I dunno, Dallas—that’s further than Paris-to-Warsaw. The trains are embarrassing, too. We’re firmly in road-trip territory. And the issue is much worse for those who don’t have the disposable income or time to cross the continent for a few days.
Or they could just take a 4 hour flight for less than $300 round trip?
AnonymousActuary
1yr ago
Tangential to the discussion, but immediately made me think of this classic article on how they build the spaceship code:
AnonymousActuary
1mo ago
If you are going to have kids and have parents who would be interested in being involved grandparents or have siblings who have kids who would be cousins (or are likely to do so), then I'd put living as close as possible (really, as possible, being 5 minutes away >>> being 25 minutes away >>> being a half-day drive >>> being a flight/full day drive) pretty highly on the list of things to prioritize.
Obviously depends on where people live as to how desirable those cities are, but something to strongly consider.
AnonymousActuary
8mo ago
- I really enjoyed this article and happily followed the substack
- I have a vague memory of reading an article online a long time ago that discussed the logistical differences between Japan and the US in terms of how quickly the US was building destroyers/escort carriers/etc by 1944 even. If anyone remembers that can find me the link, I will be eternally* grateful
*grateful for a few hours plus every few years when I think about the article again
AnonymousActuary
11mo ago
As an actuary in healthcare (arguably part of the problem) I heartily recommend that article.
AnonymousActuary
4mo ago
would you prefer authoritarian?
Forgot about the whole "yeah the 1st amendment doesn't apply anymore, no religious services or protests (except the state-sanctioned ones)"
AnonymousActuary
5mo ago
I did not run at a D1 University, but was fit in college, and got my Marathon done right before graduating to check off the box haha. Knew it was only going to get harder from there.
AnonymousActuary
8mo ago
AnonymousActuary
1yr ago
purely because I hated the other big champion that year so fucking much
Ok you can't just say that and not elaborate
AnonymousActuary
1yr ago
Ah - so then hardening the doors would be the fruit but that is substantially less low hanging.
AnonymousActuary
3d ago
Divide and Conquer (LOTR) mod for Medieval II was tons of fun.
AnonymousActuary
4mo ago
Lockdowns are fascism because using a trumped-up emergency (whether or not it killed people it was obviously trumped up - particularily the threat to children, young, healthy, and "long COVID") as pretext to confine your population to their homes only to be let out when your approved political causes are up for support is bad, well working with the media and technology companies to censor any opposition to your views is like, basically the dictionary definition. Like what political system would it be if not?
AnonymousActuary
10mo ago
"Actions taken by the Biden Admin during the Covid pandemic were generally justified." Not enough info to sway either way
Always down to talk COVID. Prefer text only for op-sec reasons
Whether the policies may or may not have protected any old people has nothing to do with whether they were fascist or not. I could deprive everyone of freedom of movements this holiday season and probably save several thousand people from the flu, but that does not mean it is not fascist.
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