ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
34m ago
Best explanation so far.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
42m ago
Was it 50/50 of the Blue Tribe, or 50/50 of the fraction of the Blue Tribe that got promoted to your attention by social media?
Look, the most you'll get out of me in terms of concessions is that there probably was a decent chunk of people who just kept quiet, and the reason they kept quiet is that they were privately horrified by what happened, but didn't want to be seen attacking their own side, or risk being attacked by them.
Of the people who had relatively little to lose or gain by saying anything (so politicians don't count, sorry), those were the main reactions I saw. Even here on the Motte, where we are heavily filtered for the kind of Blue Triber that is capable of having symapthy for the Reds, we were mostly getting the "why is everybodt overreacting to this?" response. That, and silence, which as I said in another post, is actually something I took as an indicator of decency.
In recent polls, 56% of "very liberal" and 73% of liberal respondents say it is "always or usually unacceptable" for a person to be happy about the death of a public figure they oppose; 55% and 68% say that "violence is never justified" "in order to achieve political goals"
And yet, in other recent polls:
Murder Justification: 31% and 38% of respondents stated it would be at least somewhat justified to murder Elon Musk and President Trump, respectively. These effects were driven by respondents that self-identified as left of center, with 50% and 56% at least somewhat justifying murder for Elon Musk and President Trump, respectively.
It's almost like polls are a tool for narrative control, not the accurate measurement of opinion, and should be discarded.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2hr ago
I think we overestimate the power of 'mysterious technique' brainwashing. The gold-standard, world-class, top-tier brainwashing methods are all known: State education, media propaganda, social media to catalyze it all together. Some schmucks in the CIA are no match for that. Mass media >>>>> MKUltra
Not to diss either of the methods you mentioned, but weren't the MKULTRA sensory depravation experiments pretty promising when it comes to brainwashing? Mass media is better in that it's more cost effective, but I don't think it can manipulate people all that far.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4hr ago
Can't say I'm surprised to find out that Hasan Piker is a federal agent.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
8hr ago
That doesn't quite fit for me, because if you tasked me with ensuring the arrival of the Thousand Year JD Vance Reich, I don't know if I could do a better job than what the Dems are doing.
All they need to do is regroup and wait for the next recession, though I suppose "letting something slip out because you didn't want to lose grip" is a pretty old story.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
8hr ago
Not against an armed, trained officer, who's braced for a fight.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
8hr ago
I expect most of those "assaults" are highly noncentral examples of "assault"
I expect the exact opposite, I just don't think they're political, at least beyond "I don't want to go to prison".
Instead, I want to ask y’all what “the left” should be doing.
Nothing directly in your power, but since you phrased it collectively, is it really so much to ask that the same kind of pressure that made us move offsite (and purged countless bland inoffensive communities, creators, etc) be applied to people who are actually calling for, and praising political violence?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
10hr ago
Couldn't they keep her as VP and have someone else take Biden's slot?
less radical types ended up synthesizing themselves into more normie conservatism
*liberalism.
Richard Spencer sided with the Democrats.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
11hr ago
This is a way of addressing the problem. If ICE stopped being masked goons who look like they came straight out of a bad YA dystopia movie, and became normal accountable government officials who behave kindly and civilly
That would have been easier to believe, if I didn't just watch a kind a civil guy getting assassinated, half the Blue Tribe cheering for it, and the other half going "I don't get why this is such a big deal".
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
19hr ago
Do you hearby solemnly swear that if the following happens:
In parting, I've written and then deleted several posts about "conversations we can have in advance." This is, yet again, a conversation we can have in advance. At some point, someone on the left is going to get shot by someone on the right, and not in a legally justifiable way but as an actual ideological murder. And when that happens, all the people mocking the idea of online violent radicalization, after screaming about the dangers of online violent radicalization for the last decade, are going to flop back to being performatively worried about online violent radicalization. When this happens, they will be met with stone-faced negation from Red Tribe, and will then weep and moan about how the extremists of the right just refuse to engage with this obvious problem. This will not deliver the results they hope for, but they'll do it anyway, and we'll move another step closer to chaos.
You will repost the same comment verbatim?
Someone who really hates white rappers, I suppose it could still be a left-winger angry about cultural appropriation.
The refactoring worked! I'm taking a goddamn battleaxe to the import code, it's amazing! It's so good I'm wondering if I'm retarded for not having set everything up this way from the get-go or if it's "just make it exist first, you can make it good later" working as intended. If it's the latter, I'm still a bit salty with myself about not planning it out right, as I already have ~50K Tweets stored, so I have to write a script to migrate them to the new data structure, but I suppose better this than the paralysis-by-analysis that I'm prone to.
How have you been doing @Southkraut?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
20hr ago
I mean that the claim "voters respond to price levels, not to inflation rates" is a claim that could be empirically tested using the standard methods of political science research, and has not been.
I don't know if this is a wise way to investigate hypotheses in political science. Even in psychology, medicine, and biology, where metrics are much easier to measure, and conditions are much more controlled, study replication rates are dismal. If you want to measure something this aggregated with no controls, godspeed.
The voters who swung hardest against Biden in 2024 were working class non-white voters - roughly the group who were most likely to see their incomes keep up with Bidenflation.
What do you think you're proving with that?
Let's take an analogy, like the ol' race vs crime that comes up here. When you look for things like "crime by income and race" you get things like this that, for some mysterious reason, talk about the correlations of wage gaps and crime, and it's not until you go to advanced internet racists that you see a straightforward presentation of the relevant data. Same thing is happening with your proposed relationship with Bidenflation and increasing wages. And this is before you start taking into account things like "there was more than one issue that swung the election.
Historically, voters were pissed off with inflation even when wages were rising faster than prices economy-wide, which is why Nixon felt the need to promise to "Whip Inflation Now".
Politicians communicate to voters is not the same way that economists communicate with each other. You can't bring up an old campaign slogan to prove that ackshully the voters were angry about about (the wrong) line go up. Again, you'd have to show that the people he was targeting did actually see the wage increase, and even if they did, that does absolutely nothing to address the issue we're discussing. Is it really so hard to believe that "I can't afford as much stuff as I used to" would be a compelling electoral issue?
Conventional wisdom among both politicians and political scientists (backed by empirical research which you may or may not believe) is that the electorate as a whole evaluates "falling living standards" based on the first derivative over the 1-2 years before the election.
I will again point out that you have absolutely no controls in this attempt to measure correlations.
It is therefore a surprise if voters evaluate "inflation" based on the price level.
If, and only if, you are having Managerialism injected directly into your veins. Like how in Jesus' name do you expect people to forget "I used to be able to afford a lot more with the same salary > 2 years ago"?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
One interesting and afaik formerly unstudied possibility that emerged from the 2024 election is that voter anger about inflation can persist a lot longer than voter anger about other bad economic outcomes (in particular, temporary high unemployment) because "prices are higher than I think they should be" is something voters feel in the present even if the inflation has stopped.
Indeed, more studies are necessary to explore scenarios like "people see with their own eyes that they can now afford less than they used to", which flabbergasted the academic political scientists. Why aren't they satisfied with the rate of decline of their purchasing power slowing down? It is difficult to tell, but probably has something to do with right-wing propaganda.
Harris could have gotten the Cabinet on her side and just pulled a 25th, nothing Jill could have done
That's not what a competent takeover would look like. It would be more like "Weekend At Biden's" for the remainder of the term, and an announcement that he's not going to seek reelection, and is endorsing Kamala from day one.
There's no reason to force someone on your team to go through the humiliation of being declared unfit for office, unless it absolutely cannot be avoided, but the way they handled it was an absolute blunder, preventing anyone from walking away from the situation with their dignity intact.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
but Western politicians are big on the humility and the empathy. It's not enough to just give lip service: you have to believe it.
What?!
The strategy for Trump I was "I know politicians are corrupt liars, but how can you support Trump? He's literally Hitler!", now that the Hitler thing has wore off and we have Trump II it seems like we're trying "I'm not saying Trump is literally Hitler, but he's not sincire about being humble and empathetic, unlike all the other politicians"...
Are you serious? I'm not sure what to tell you, if you are. "Paying lip service, and not believing a single word that comes out of your mouth" has been the in the job description of every single western politician, as far human memory reaches.
A lot of liberals believe that rules and policies are more important than outcomes.
That's debatable, but irrelevant anyway. It's the literal opposite of the point EIF made.
If you want tk make your own point about why Trump Bad that's fine as far as it goes, but if you're responding under a post about how Trump doesn't care about the outcomes of his policiee (unlike all the other politicians), and a poster expresses utter bafflement at how anyone can reach that conclusion, I think you should address that argument, not keep sthrowing spaghetti at the Trump Bad wall.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
And I think the point of the counter-argument is "but it is and always has been, and how can you even pretend that it hasn't if you look around you for 5 seconds".
Your point of about technocracy vs. monarchy is valid as far as I can tell, and has been made by righ-wingers themselves - left-wingers prefer distributed communal responsibility wielded by a class of "experts", right wingers prefer when the buck stops somewhere. But it makes absolutely no sense to express that point as "most leaders care if their policies work, unlike Trump". I don't see how these two points are related to each other at all, so whatever argument you're steelmanning, it's not the one EIF made.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
How many academic journals would even consider a well-researched trans-skeptical study? Not even publish, but get to the point of doing a serious peer review?
In theory, a fair amount.There was the Cass Review, which included many published and peer reviewed papers, and the recent Gordon Guyatt drama resulted from trans-skeptical studies being published, though as the authors would have it, the issue was not the studies themselves, but the fact that they were used in a trans-skeptical way, which is why the customary activist pressure was applied.
Firstly, social class is not really about money. Social class is about culture. A mechanic or a plumber can make more money than a university lecturer with two PhDs. How many rich black American are from stable, two parent households in high income areas and have the same cultural values as their white counterparts? Are they engineers, doctors, businesspeople, or are they in the stereotypical high earning occupations available to black people? And can they avoid social pressures and expectations - including that from the black community itself - for their own kids as well, who might look to role models that look like them?
If we're owning the race realists by channeling Thomas Sowell, I can only cheer for that, but I'm not exactly amused by hearing these arguments after being called racist for about 20 years for believing them. I'd also like some indication that the cultural parts are as well defined and measured as you'd demand of race realists before accepting their arguments.
But in any case, if you look at the statistics, the incarceration rate for black men still sharply decreases with income.
There's still a gap between blacks and whites at any income level, it's so big that blacks have to reach something like the 70th
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Despite that, I highly doubt @ArjinFerman and the other race realists here are sexist against men and racist against all ethnicities other than East Asian.
I absolutely am sexist against men as far violence is concerned, my views on the necessity of women-only spaces re: trans issues are informed by that. As far as racism goes, I prefer not to do it at all, actually, and I appreciate it if things I say, like "I'm perfectly happy leaving well enough alone when it comes to race" and "I don't want to become Steve Sailer", aren't ignored in the future.
What are you or @ArjinFerman suggesting we do with that information?
To the extent I'm interested in bringing up the subject at all, it's only as a trump card against any future attempt to resurrect "white privilege" and "systemic racism" arguments, and as happened in this case, to refute bad "purely socio-economic factors, of course" arguments.
If you're interested in my solutions to the problem, they boil down to the equal application of the rule of law, regardless of race, swiftly, and harshly. I've long advocated for the Bukele Option / Salvador Solution over the application of genetics to the problem of crime (which is mostly a liberal idea - see "abortions caused a drop in the crime rate"). If that's too spicy, I can maybe be persuaded to go as soft as Thomas Sowell.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
If someone wants to say "well, it's not so clear, maybe it's this, maybe it's that, etc , etc." I don't have anything against that. It's the waltzing in, declaring one theory wrong, and proposing a wronger one as the true explanation, triggers my 'tism.
I've seen a documentary where they said, seemingly reading from a report / study / something written by Donald Hebbs, that the subjects became long-term suggestible. The example they gave was inducing the fear of the paranornal, that would still be present weeks after the experiment.
Would be cool to have the original study, I don't have the original source (don't even know what they were quoting), though.
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