ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
Someone who really hates white rappers, I suppose it could still be a left-winger angry about cultural appropriation.
The refactoring worked! I'm taking a goddamn battleaxe to the import code, it's amazing! It's so good I'm wondering if I'm retarded for not having set everything up this way from the get-go or if it's "just make it exist first, you can make it good later" working as intended. If it's the latter, I'm still a bit salty with myself about not planning it out right, as I already have ~50K Tweets stored, so I have to write a script to migrate them to the new data structure, but I suppose better this than the paralysis-by-analysis that I'm prone to.
How have you been doing @Southkraut?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
8hr ago
I mean that the claim "voters respond to price levels, not to inflation rates" is a claim that could be empirically tested using the standard methods of political science research, and has not been.
I don't know if this is a wise way to investigate hypotheses in political science. Even in psychology, medicine, and biology, where metrics are much easier to measure, and conditions are much more controlled, study replication rates are dismal. If you want to measure something this aggregated with no controls, godspeed.
The voters who swung hardest against Biden in 2024 were working class non-white voters - roughly the group who were most likely to see their incomes keep up with Bidenflation.
What do you think you're proving with that?
Let's take an analogy, like the ol' race vs crime that comes up here. When you look for things like "crime by income and race" you get things like this that, for some mysterious reason, talk about the correlations of wage gaps and crime, and it's not until you go to advanced internet racists that you see a straightforward presentation of the relevant data. Same thing is happening with your proposed relationship with Bidenflation and increasing wages. And this is before you start taking into account things like "there was more than one issue that swung the election.
Historically, voters were pissed off with inflation even when wages were rising faster than prices economy-wide, which is why Nixon felt the need to promise to "Whip Inflation Now".
Politicians communicate to voters is not the same way that economists communicate with each other. You can't bring up an old campaign slogan to prove that ackshully the voters were angry about about (the wrong) line go up. Again, you'd have to show that the people he was targeting did actually see the wage increase, and even if they did, that does absolutely nothing to address the issue we're discussing. Is it really so hard to believe that "I can't afford as much stuff as I used to" would be a compelling electoral issue?
Conventional wisdom among both politicians and political scientists (backed by empirical research which you may or may not believe) is that the electorate as a whole evaluates "falling living standards" based on the first derivative over the 1-2 years before the election.
I will again point out that you have absolutely no controls in this attempt to measure correlations.
It is therefore a surprise if voters evaluate "inflation" based on the price level.
If, and only if, you are having Managerialism injected directly into your veins. Like how in Jesus' name do you expect people to forget "I used to be able to afford a lot more with the same salary > 2 years ago"?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
12hr ago
One interesting and afaik formerly unstudied possibility that emerged from the 2024 election is that voter anger about inflation can persist a lot longer than voter anger about other bad economic outcomes (in particular, temporary high unemployment) because "prices are higher than I think they should be" is something voters feel in the present even if the inflation has stopped.
Indeed, more studies are necessary to explore scenarios like "people see with their own eyes that they can now afford less than they used to", which flabbergasted the academic political scientists. Why aren't they satisfied with the rate of decline of their purchasing power slowing down? It is difficult to tell, but probably has something to do with right-wing propaganda.
Harris could have gotten the Cabinet on her side and just pulled a 25th, nothing Jill could have done
That's not what a competent takeover would look like. It would be more like "Weekend At Biden's" for the remainder of the term, and an announcement that he's not going to seek reelection, and is endorsing Kamala from day one.
There's no reason to force someone on your team to go through the humiliation of being declared unfit for office, unless it absolutely cannot be avoided, but the way they handled it was an absolute blunder, preventing anyone from walking away from the situation with their dignity intact.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
21hr ago
but Western politicians are big on the humility and the empathy. It's not enough to just give lip service: you have to believe it.
What?!
The strategy for Trump I was "I know politicians are corrupt liars, but how can you support Trump? He's literally Hitler!", now that the Hitler thing has wore off and we have Trump II it seems like we're trying "I'm not saying Trump is literally Hitler, but he's not sincire about being humble and empathetic, unlike all the other politicians"...
Are you serious? I'm not sure what to tell you, if you are. "Paying lip service, and not believing a single word that comes out of your mouth" has been the in the job description of every single western politician, as far human memory reaches.
A lot of liberals believe that rules and policies are more important than outcomes.
That's debatable, but irrelevant anyway. It's the literal opposite of the point EIF made.
If you want tk make your own point about why Trump Bad that's fine as far as it goes, but if you're responding under a post about how Trump doesn't care about the outcomes of his policiee (unlike all the other politicians), and a poster expresses utter bafflement at how anyone can reach that conclusion, I think you should address that argument, not keep sthrowing spaghetti at the Trump Bad wall.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
22hr ago
And I think the point of the counter-argument is "but it is and always has been, and how can you even pretend that it hasn't if you look around you for 5 seconds".
Your point of about technocracy vs. monarchy is valid as far as I can tell, and has been made by righ-wingers themselves - left-wingers prefer distributed communal responsibility wielded by a class of "experts", right wingers prefer when the buck stops somewhere. But it makes absolutely no sense to express that point as "most leaders care if their policies work, unlike Trump". I don't see how these two points are related to each other at all, so whatever argument you're steelmanning, it's not the one EIF made.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
How many academic journals would even consider a well-researched trans-skeptical study? Not even publish, but get to the point of doing a serious peer review?
In theory, a fair amount.There was the Cass Review, which included many published and peer reviewed papers, and the recent Gordon Guyatt drama resulted from trans-skeptical studies being published, though as the authors would have it, the issue was not the studies themselves, but the fact that they were used in a trans-skeptical way, which is why the customary activist pressure was applied.
Firstly, social class is not really about money. Social class is about culture. A mechanic or a plumber can make more money than a university lecturer with two PhDs. How many rich black American are from stable, two parent households in high income areas and have the same cultural values as their white counterparts? Are they engineers, doctors, businesspeople, or are they in the stereotypical high earning occupations available to black people? And can they avoid social pressures and expectations - including that from the black community itself - for their own kids as well, who might look to role models that look like them?
If we're owning the race realists by channeling Thomas Sowell, I can only cheer for that, but I'm not exactly amused by hearing these arguments after being called racist for about 20 years for believing them. I'd also like some indication that the cultural parts are as well defined and measured as you'd demand of race realists before accepting their arguments.
But in any case, if you look at the statistics, the incarceration rate for black men still sharply decreases with income.
There's still a gap between blacks and whites at any income level, it's so big that blacks have to reach something like the 70th
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
Despite that, I highly doubt @ArjinFerman and the other race realists here are sexist against men and racist against all ethnicities other than East Asian.
I absolutely am sexist against men as far violence is concerned, my views on the necessity of women-only spaces re: trans issues are informed by that. As far as racism goes, I prefer not to do it at all, actually, and I appreciate it if things I say, like "I'm perfectly happy leaving well enough alone when it comes to race" and "I don't want to become Steve Sailer", aren't ignored in the future.
What are you or @ArjinFerman suggesting we do with that information?
To the extent I'm interested in bringing up the subject at all, it's only as a trump card against any future attempt to resurrect "white privilege" and "systemic racism" arguments, and as happened in this case, to refute bad "purely socio-economic factors, of course" arguments.
If you're interested in my solutions to the problem, they boil down to the equal application of the rule of law, regardless of race, swiftly, and harshly. I've long advocated for the Bukele Option / Salvador Solution over the application of genetics to the problem of crime (which is mostly a liberal idea - see "abortions caused a drop in the crime rate"). If that's too spicy, I can maybe be persuaded to go as soft as Thomas Sowell.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
If someone wants to say "well, it's not so clear, maybe it's this, maybe it's that, etc , etc." I don't have anything against that. It's the waltzing in, declaring one theory wrong, and proposing a wronger one as the true explanation, triggers my 'tism.
No, race realism is also wrong, the actual reason is class/subculture for which you are using skin colour as a proxy, due to the US having a underclass primarily composed of black people.
Why do you guys have to keep doing this? I'm perfectly happy leaving well enough alone when it comes to race, but then someone just has to post something like this. I don't want to become Steve Sailer, I've lost count of how many times I bit my tongue or scrolled past arguments like this, but every time is that much harder.
Do you really think this is true? Would statistics showing that rich black Americans commit more crime than poor white Americans change your mind at all? If not, in what sense is it a proxy?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
I need, you need conservatives to be afraid of getting killed when they go to events, so that they look to their leadership to turn down the temperature.
Of all the things I've heard said on the subject, this has got to be the dumbest. The only one that comes close is that TikToker getting giddy over how Kirk is not martyr material.
Even if you accept the premise that all of this is because of Trump, it shows just wide the inferential gap between the tribes is.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
I'm saying the exietence of the universe will never be answerable by science. You can't get an answers for "why is there something rather than nothing" by looking at it from within the something.
It's not even a particularly controversial observation from what I understand.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Serves me right for replying from the raw comment feed.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
I'm saying that "existence is amazingly extraordinary" (backed by hours of hypnotic monologues by Sagan, Dawkins, or Tyson) has been literally what secular humanists were saying in order to generate a sense of awe similar to that of religious epiphanies.
Your particular argument destroys any such attempt. Even if secular humanism remains ubdeboonked, it's left barren of any higher goal.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
I don't think that this is the definition of "miracle" used by the Bible, or any other religious text, written before the scientific method was established.
Can that which encompasses all ever be extraordinary?
Isn't that literally what secular humanism was trying to sell as an alternative to religion?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
Not just that, the trend seems to be upward since early 2024.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
The existence of the universe?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2d ago
and $1780 dollars per person
Was that when every $20 was backed by an ounce of gold?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3d ago
Don’t express the virtues of collectivism. Don’t criticize the preference for libertarianism or small government. Don’t say anything critical of Zelensky. Don’t doubt the inherent virtue of unnamed people.
What? I don't know what you mean by the last one, but I disagree with all the other ones, and I'm pretty sure I could write something doing all thr things you're telling people not to, and get lots of updoots.
I'm not questioning a bias existing, but you're getting in comically wrong.
You wouldn't need to charge $60 for your game if you only needed to pay 3 salaries. And on the other side, there are lots of cheap indie games that are crap in comparison. Why can't all of the 3 people studios produce games of this quality?
I'm not in the industry so my impression might be off, but there's a few reasons I can think of:
- Programming is hard. For as long as I remember there was some gray-suit asshole that tried to come up with a paradigm that would make it work like all other forms of engineering - you get one guy that sits at the drawing board for a while, you pay him relatively well, and when he's done you send off the blueprint to an army of worker ants, that get paid peanuts. This had several manifestations like trying to ship IT jobs to India, or trying to ship India into the west, I think now they're hoping they can hand it off to AI. For whatever reason this has always been a disaster. I can't explain why, there's just something whimsical about the entire field, that makes it resist cookie-cutter solutions, and ends up requiring talented people who are quick on their feet. It's actually counter-intuitive for me, I'd expect IRL engineering would be the thing that would keep falling flat on it's face, due to the inherent dirtiness of the physical realm, but somehow it's the opposite.
- Programming games is even harder. All the things I said apply to your run-of-the-mill, boring-ass, web applications. Games are insanely complex systems where a tonne of stuff is interacting with a tonne of other stuff in unpredictable ways (and that's before the user input is taken into account), in real-time. Every paradigm that was invented to make the boring forms of software engineering a little bit more legible, go right out the window in game programming - at least if the code from games that ended up open sourced is any indication. This makes it even more resistant to standardization.
- You know what else games need? Art. That other thing that doesn't go quite well with soulless, standardized, production pipelines.
- You know what big organizations really like? Soulless, standardized, production pipelines. This one is the actual core of your question, and I now realize I don't actually have a good answer. Why? I don't know, but companies will literally eat massive costs if it buys them a sliver of predictability. In theory it should make no difference, if you have a lot of money, you can just throw it on thousands of creators, and more than make up for the money with the few good hits you get. Maybe it's because the good ones start acting like divas? Once they make a name for themselves, you need them more than they need you. No self-respecting industrialist wants to be in that position, so they prefer to throw half a billion dollars at a game with a list of credits longer than a Holocaust memorial, and get a billion dollars back, and rely on a million mindless drones, than to get the same amount of profit for a fraction of the investment, and risk your drones getting uppity.
- Why do all the other indies suck? Well, see all the "this shit is hard" points. Yeah, this one might have been made by 3 people, but I'll bet blindly that each of them is in the top <= 0.1% of their respective field. On top of that, finding 3 talented people is not enough. You need to find 3 talented people that get along well, and can work with each other.
Do you hearby solemnly swear that if the following happens:
You will repost the same comment verbatim?
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