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AvocadoPanic


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 05 12:43:37 UTC
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User ID: 550

AvocadoPanic


				
				
				

				
1 follower   follows 12 users   joined 2022 September 05 12:43:37 UTC

					

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User ID: 550

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An opinion piece in the WSJ calls out poor numeracy. It appears the false claim was copied from an amicus brief, still it appears sloppy. I'd have thought statistical claims especially would receive specific attention / validation.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson enumerated purported benefits of “diversity” in education. “It saves lives,” she asserts. “For high-risk Black newborns, having a Black physician more than doubles the likelihood that the baby will live.”A moment’s thought should be enough to realize that this claim is wildly implausible. Imagine if 40% of black newborns died—thousands of dead infants every week. But even so, that’s a 60% survival rate, which is mathematically impossible to double. And the actual survival rate is over 99%.How could Justice Jackson make such an innumerate mistake? A footnote cites a friend-of-the-court brief by the Association of American Medical Colleges, which makes the same claim in almost identical language. It, in turn, refers to a 2020 study whose lead author is Brad Greenwood, a professor at the George Mason University School of Business.The study makes no such claims. It examines mortality rates in Florida newborns between 1992 and 2015 and shows a 0.13% to 0.2% improvement in survival rates for black newborns with black pediatricians (though no statistically significant improvement for black obstetricians).The AAMC brief either misunderstood the paper or invented the statistic. (It isn’t saved by the adjective “high-risk,” which doesn’t appear and isn’t measured in Greenwood’s paper.)Even the much more modest Greenwood result—which amounts to a difference of fewer than 10 Florida newborns a year—is flawed. It uses linear regression, appropriate for modeling continuous normally distributed variables like height or LSAT scores but not for categorical low-probability events like “newborn death.” The proper methodology would be a logistic model. The authors did one, hidden deep in an appendix rather than the body of the paper.There, the most highly specified model still shows an improvement in black newborn survival. But if you know how to read the numbers—the authors don’t say it—it also shows black doctors with a statistically significant higher mortality rate for white newborns, and a higher mortality rate overall, all else being equal.

Reading previous posts of moded users is one of the few times I use the profiles screen.

@Amadan ban @BurdensomeCount seemed to be in this instance directed at a specific word choice in the post, combined with his 'history'. Evidence for the history claim would have been nice, but then so would a more charitable reading of the post in this instance. After scrolling through a month or so of their posts he didn't seem to me to be excessively inflamitory. Reviewing his posts; I had engaged with several via the ⬇️ button. That we didn't immediately appear to be overly ideologically aligned, reinforced my belief that he had been modded unfairly.

Is there an easy way to filter for modded comments by a specific user? The mod log doesn't appear to be filterable by user.

I understand the desire to bring more light than heat. Sometimes the modding seems to stamp out the ember before there's evidence that anyone other than non-contributing snitches or mods has actually been inflamed. My preference would be for at least some heat before it's stamped out as inflamitory.

Myself upon reading something inflamitory to me often like to pause to see I can understand why I'm having an emotional response. That I'm then able to challenge or put inquires to the poster helps me understand their position and my emotional response. Part of the reason I come here is to be inflamed by people that are more accessible and responsive than is generally elsewhere. I find this helps me generally be less inflammable and parse the arguments of others.

children should be taught that there is nothing wrong with LGBTQ people.

Nothing wrong in what sense and context?

No. Obviously not. Nor is inflamitory a binary measure. An inflamitory scale could be vermin > animals > savages > barbarians (a notorious slur against the germanic people and other non greco-romans) > rioters > protesters > teenagers > joggers.

Reasonable people may disagree over the inflamitory nature of any particular word, as it relates to their specific linguistic or cultural context.

Modding for indelicate word choice and labeling as inflamitory when the 'inflamitory' word represents a necessarily small portion of the entire post, seems unnecessarily uncharitable to me. Especially when arguably more inflamitory nouns have already been deployed in the larger public discourse.

A charitable reading of @BurdensomeCount comment might find it less inflamitory than the police unions reference to the rioters as vermin, a specific class of animals. Or is the objection to the characterization of westerners as pussies?

Are mods susceptible to the 'othering' that can be seen in law enforcement that have repeated exposure to high crime cohorts? In those contexts it seems to result in uncharitable views.

Jewish cultural influence


books containing LGBT themes

They're the same picture book.

Nobody has a sexuality until they lose their virginity

I don't think this is true. I'd argue for internalizing and owning the identity. It may be concurrent with first sexual contact but does not have to be.

actively practice your sexuality in order to possess it

Non-offending pedophiles aren't still pedophiles?

messaging around "it's okay to experiment, it doesn't mean you're necessarily gay" when I was a teen

I'm not sure if we were teens at the same time, I was a teen in the 90's. I heard this messaging then too. We would object to being 'labeled'.

suppressed just as much as hetero opponents

Are there enough of you to rebrand this gay lifestyle?

Any decrease?

I think this may be a bit of semantics but there's certainly a cohort of men that have had some same-sex experience that never accepted / identified with the gay idpol.

The stereotype of the libidenous man between girlfriends who'd accept oral sex from 'gay' guys because the casual sex was easier.

Are you gay if primarily you desire opposite sex experiences and you don't identify with the idpol?

I think it's the shift from sex with men is something you do, to I have sex with men because I'm a gay. Is how you catch gay from the idpol.

No time limit. Once you internalize and accept the gay idpol, you've caught the gay.

a dark reactionary taking power

Would you see this as a preferred outcome?

You have to be the change you want to see.

No gay sex or no sex? Were you trying to have a different sort of life during this period?

Drag Race and circuit parties have become the mainstream representation of being gay

and gay cruises, gay resorts, gay pride, gay...

The 'other' gay orthodox path in current year is 'marriage' and sometimes gaybies. Though this does not preclude drag, circuit parties, drugs and parphillias.

Calling it a subculture problem seems a little dismissive, especially when any move against it is met with accusations of bigotry or homophobia. Would the Birkenstocked claim bigotry against their sensible shoes?

self reinforcing

Largely because there's so much more of it, and it's so accepted by segments of society. Is there any counter messaging that there are other ways to be gay, or you might not even be gay just a confused horny teenager without a regular non-gay outlet for your libido?

Have you seen "Boys Beware"? The stereotype of the sinister predatory homosexual was for a time the only depiction of male homosexuals in popular media.

I was more concerned with the exclusion of adult homosexuals from spaces traditionally for men and boys.

live a thoroughly miserable existence attached to someone who you don't really love or feel attracted to

This seems a particularly worse case outcome.

Men with same sex attraction seem especially prone to drug, chemical, alcohol and parphillia induced or adjacent sexual activity. This seems throughly miserable to me. I guess they're fortunate that in current year there's an abundance of degeneracy to allow them to live their inner truths publicly.

'Straight' people sublimate all sorts of impulses and desires into more traditionally socially acceptable directions.

ephebophile would be more accurate in the heterosexual context, though I've seen pederast used as a synonym

Aren't the high profile attention seeking ex-gays more likely to be performative?

The ex-gay thing is a bit weird but in a similar way so is the detrans thing, both have some genuine members that were likely groomed / self groomed into alphabetism. That there's no reliable treatment or search for a cure among the establishment. There isn't t a well worn path out. Much mental illnesses chronic. Worse many of this cohort are subject to vitriol from their former alphabet compatriots.

I know several seemingly happy, married with children, people that were practicing LGB in the 90's. They don't talk about it, and would be unlikely to join an ex-gay organization.

Elsewhere in this thread it was claimed that the largest increase in alphabetism was amongst the 'B', presumably they have more options / choices. Am I still B if I've not had sexual activity other than my opposite sex spouse in 20 years?

The destigmatization and ease of divorce as it fits into the larger context of the sexual revolution and feminism has had a number of deleterious effects.

self fulfillment over duty

It's a very particular type of self fulfillment that frequently looks like self-centeredness or narcissism.

How many white parties and how much cock does it take to find self fulfillment? I find this less creepy than marriage and gaybies, and the associated assisted reproduction baby trafficking.

There's not infrequent messaging warning young women and girls about predatory pederasts. You can find frequent discussions by women and girls recounting when they first felt the leers of men as the objects of male sexual desire. That many will use the vocabulary of victimization I think is unhelpful.

Is there still messaging directed at boys and young men warning of the homosexual pederast? Do men and boys still have male only spaces where they're allowed to exclude homosexuals to have the frank discussions necessary to convey the danger posed?

remains largely impossible

How long do they have to desist from same sex behavior before they're straight, a year, five?

It's possible for people to find their way out of homosexuality, but if they've made it large portion of their identity and social group it's difficult, like leaving a cult.

they've "won" almost everything their entire lives

Musk was bullied in school in SA

Pete, Chase and their gayby?

would be gay

This musical documentary claims there's a 'Golden Rule', that it's not gay when it's in a three-way.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Pi7gwX7rjOw

increased susceptibility to real terrorists

Likely describes 10's if not 100's of thousands of people. Is the FBI going to arrest them all one at time?

Perhaps the recruiter groomer should have gone for stupid idpol instead.

blows himself up in a mall

Except in this instance there's no claim he had actually communicated with actual terrorists, only FBI pretending to be terrorist recruiters.

Isn't the expectation that the FBI should be disrupting terrorist networks? There's no network here only the FBI communicating with a young man described by his father to The Intercept as;

“He was born prematurely, he had brain development issues. I had the school do a neurosurgery evaluation on him and they said his brain was underdeveloped,” Ventura said. “He was suffering endless bullying at school with other kids taking food off his plate, tripping him in the hallway, humiliating him, laughing at him.”