BayesWatch
6mo ago
I think that the prediction markets might be pricing in things like 3rd parties, which a Trump vs Biden poll doesn't account for.
BayesWatch
6mo ago
Eisman from the Big Short
YU is the equivalent of the Jewish state school, and it is far better than the meadian state school.
BayesWatch
6mo ago
I don't like baseball, but I do like well crafted videos, and the you tube channel "baseball doesn't exist" has a lots of good videos that just so happen to be about baseball. So that might make a good entry point!
BayesWatch
6mo ago
A rags to riches story of small backwater with big population and high birth rates has happened couple of times already.
Sure, but which of those cases ended up "substantially richer than Israel ". Israel is already one of the richest countries in the world. A random countries can't just up and make themselves richer than that because they decide to. The vast majority of functioning western countries are far poorer than Israel. You can't just decide that you want to be richer and make it so.
BayesWatch
7mo ago
Fatah?
BayesWatch
7mo ago
What if they were launched from a bomber?
BayesWatch
7mo ago
Iran has medium range missiles capable of hitting Israel, but how many they have is unknown. Israel’s options for physical retaliation would be slim, but in many ways that reduces the risk that Iran acts overly aggressive out of fear.
Supposing that Iran did launch missals, would Israel be able to distinguish between conventional missals and WMDs (be they chemical and nuclear)?
And given that they wouldn't know the content of the missals launched by Iran, Israel would have to assume that they might be WMDs. By this I mean to say that a rockets from Iran to Israel might have the same problem as rockets launched from Russia to the USA, it would risk nuclear escalation given that you cannot determine the content of the missals, and given that there is a possibility that the missals are in fact a nuclear first strike.
Given the risk of escalation it it would seem unlikely that Iran proper directly attacks Israel.
BayesWatch
7mo ago
The most upvoted questions seem to be something like, "why didn't Lex ask about the 2 billion.", which is funny because he does ask about it. Jared seemed reasonably thoughtful. Over the course of Trump's presidency we saw Jared's reputation change from wonder-kid to village idiot. I don't know if he is a wonder kid, but he certainly isn't the village idiot.
BayesWatch
8mo ago
Drudge's post debate poll had Christie coming in second after Ramaswamy as the winner of the debate. So a far right news base, at least the over 50,000 of them that participated so far, seem to think Christie did a good job. Not as good as Ramaswamy, but a bit better than Haley and Desantis, and way better than anyone else.
BayesWatch
9mo ago
For what it's worth, he said he won't be anyones VIP. He says that he's doing this to be in charge and that he doesn't want to answer to anyone.
That is absurd. He was making more money than he ever had before, in the months preceding his cancelation he made up the majority of online sales on Adidas' website. The world was his oyster, he had reached the greatest financial success of his life, surpassed all his peers, and the value of his company was still sky rocketing.
Old rappers are not going on tour, unlike old rockers.
Tour? You do realize that he was now a billionaire designer, yes? Who cares about going on tour? Kanye had one of the most devoted fan bases, and he can and did go on tour, but he now a fashion brand, who happened to rap as a side job. Rhianna, another artist turned billionaire fashion label, hasn't performed in 10 years. It doesn't matter. They don't have to do that kind of stuff any more.
Then he lost billions of dollars in a single week, and if you think that it was part of some 3D chess move and not just bad impulse control then I don't know what to tell you.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
You are absurdlyunderestimating how OP Harry Potter style Wizard's are. Wizard's powers are not equivalent to that of a modern human with a gun.
In an actual war between all of the muggle world and a group 10 talented wizards, the wizards would win in a single day. Apply an invisibility charm, aparate to Washington, imperio the President, do the same to all ranking cabinet members. Repeat for each country. Be back home for lunch. You already won, but you can spend the next week Aparating around under invisibility charm and casting imperio on everyone that matters.
That is a single trivial application of what you could do. It doesn't matter if a gun is better than an Avada Kadavra, a wizard should win every fight against a muggle without using any lethal force.
The Slytherins are an unmanly ethnogroup that uses their wealth and ownership of the media to secretly control the government.
Do you mean Slytherins or pure bloods? Slytherins obviously aren't an ethnogroup, and to the extent that purebloods are an ethnogroup the analogy doesn't hold up.
The sacred 28 is a list of the 28 truely pure blooded British families. Those 28 families include
-
The Weasleys.
-
The Prwetts of which all the boys died fighting Voldemort, and Molly Weasley is the only daughter.
-
The Longbottom's
-
The Shacklebolts
The list includes other non-heroic but not Voldemort adjacent families, like Olivander, other plotting backroom dealers like Slughorn and maybe Greengrass.
So even this take doesn't break things down into a unified ethno group. A large amout of the fighting is among the sacred 28.
A Crouch, a Lestrange, and a Lestrange/Black torture the Longbottoms into insanity.
A Longbottom destroys a Horcrux.
Voldemort's side (1/2 Gaunt) killes the Prewetts boys.
Molly Weasley/Prwettt kills Belatrixx Lestrange/Black.
Voldemort Kidnaps an Olivander.
Belatrixx Lestrange/Black kills another Black.
A black betrays Voldemort and steals his Horcrux.
A Shackbolt is one of the cheif enemies of Voldemort.
A Crouch is Voldemort's main government opposition during the war, but his son worked for Voldemort, and his son later kills him.
All of these surnames are in the sacred 28.
So it's no so much an unmanly ethnogroup that uses their wealth and ownership of the media to secretly control the government. So much as it is a part of of ethnogroup hat uses their wealth and ownership of the media to secretly control the government, often against other members of that exact ethnogroup.... actually, on reflection the the intrasect fighting might make it a more accurate representation of modern Jewry, but not in a way that lines with classic sterotypes (that and how secular liberal Jews and Orthedox Jews are diametrically opposed on every political issue is not well known in common discourse).
BayesWatch
1yr ago
That means nothing. Look at Cyberpunk 2077. You have no reason to believe that it's a good game until it's actually released.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
"the Goblins are an anti-Semitic trope"
There really might be something off about the Goblins. Watching the movies now it's impossible not to see in the movies. My inclination is to say that it was chance. Something totally unintentional that looks obvious once it's been framed as an antisemitic trope. But by God it looks like an Antisemitic trope. It's literally a race of hook nosed bankers that hoard piles of gold and treasure, they even look and dress like antisemitic caricatures. Their uniform is literally black suits and white shirts. I mean, my first inclination is to say that its a coincidence but at the same time, that is a pretty freaking big coincidence.
Not everyone who sees a problem with the Goblins is acting on bad faith. It's not an ipso facto excuse to justify the actual reasons that you don't like her. The depiction of the goblins in the series really is strange.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
People don't really convert to Judaism. Judaism heavily discourages conversion, and people usually give up after waiting a couple of years. Simply put, they don't want people to join, and the law is that you should discourage anyone who tries to join. The optimal Goy doesn't convert to Judaism, they simply observe 7 commandments given to the son's of Noah.
Secular Judaism might include some highly inclusive conversion but it doesn't change anything in a meaningful sense. Assuming that the mother did some kind of inclusive conversion they are considered a danger because a couple of generations later someone might actually think they are Jewish, marry an actual jew who thinks that she's an actual jew, thus introducing non-jews who will give birth to non-jews who think their Jewish, and then their non-jewish daughters will marry jews and have more kids that they think are jews but actually aren't. Introducing this kind of faulty record keeping into the system is a big deal because it allows people to honestly make mistakes that result in the offspring of every daughter not being jewish. This is a genuine problem.
It is not the case that there are conversions into the Jewish genetic cluster in any meaningful sense.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Did I miss something? When and why did we start calling Jews "(((Triple Parentheses)))"?
BayesWatch
1yr ago
He's not talking about Ren Tech, he's talking specifically about Ren Tech's medallion fund. It's only open to employees.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
a decapitation strike on Russia's launch capabilities has already happened
???
BayesWatch
1yr ago
It is a heuristic and nothing you said suggests that it isn't a good heuristic. For one set of users he says "they might be real, but they might be a bot/spammer", and for a second set he will say "I have reason to beleive that these are real people".
So long as he can filter out bots and such from the second set, it's a great heuristic. It's fine if lots of real people get thrown out, as long as the bots get thrown out with them, and you are left with people you have reason to believe are real.
Was this on the old subreddit? I can remember a few. Were people saying that markets couldn't possibly be so inefficient?
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Ya, but, hypothetically, wouldn't that selection have only existed among the pool of already available slaves.
So if there was selection it would only be among the pre-selected group (of tribes that got enslaved by other tribes, I guess)?
I don't see how your point disagrees with what the parent comment says. Sure there was selection, but that selection would be among a pre selected group, and said means of selection would have dysgenic effect.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Barron's either has an inside scoop or is irresponsibly wrong.
As per my recollection, and as Matt Levine said today on Twitter, Musk at one point considered borrowing against Tesla shares, but instead borrowed against Twitter and funded the rest from stock sales (+investors +large shareholders who rolled over their shares).
Barron's is flat out wrong and should feel bad.
Hold up. I'm lost. While I'm sure that there are still mass graves, the bodies were generally burnt in the crematoriums. Am I mistaken on that front.
That isn't to say that there aren't mass graves or anything. However, is it not well known that the bodies were put into crematoriums?
Shouldn't you be challenging the claim that there were in fact crematoriums?
And I'm not undercutting you here. I want to get on the same page. Are you claiming that there was no explicit documentation related to death camps (save "coded" documents)?
Do you meant that Hitler himself never signed such explicit documents himself?
Of course they aren't, this is priced in, it's standard wisdom. We try not to prosecute the previous president so as not to become a banana republic.
More options
Context Copy link