Blueberry
1mo ago
Lab leak has a few things going for it, but these are always presented in isolation and no pushback. It is worth to read through Scotts Lab-Leak-Megapost, which is itself only a summary/review of the 15 hours of Lab-Leak-debate videos. I wouldn't rule out Lab-Leak completely, but I downgraded its probability.
Blueberry
3mo ago
See the pictures in this xeet:
https://x.com/iannuttall/status/1904922685655707837
It is not that ChatGPT does not make mistakes, the mug with two handles or the dog with legarms are hilarious, but sooner or later image creation will approach dangerously the area of language translation: For really important stuff (legal contracts, professional movie/book translations) you still want a professional translater, but almost always deepl/AI-translate is good enough. The image slop is a pretty good and fun expression of the users creativitiy. Even if "real" graphic designers will use it just as a tool their productivity will skyrocket.
I wonder if and when Music is disrupted. "Write a Bob Dylan Song over current_year and cover it in the style of Jimmy Hendrix" would be a killer application. As a pillar of popular culture and fearing the backlash I wonder if AI companies will avoid music generation.
Blueberry
5mo ago
The other thread is mainly focused on Lex's language choice, and Lex's skills as an interviewer.
More interesting for me is Zelenskyys language skill:
https://x.com/RWApodcast/status/1876014982527434842
https://x.com/RWApodcast/status/1876016285550813559
Tweaking Zelensky is a mess. He struggles to speak Ukrainian, stumbles, switches between languages and swears profusely in Russian. Wonder what happened to the lil guy. Lex Fridman fucking DUBBED it in English, so people wouldn't notice how stupid it all sounds.
Imagine Trump sounding like this: "Hola amigos... fuuuuck.. i'm gonna whoop the cholo pendejo ass. mierda motherfucker..." Not exaggerating, not even a little bit. Crazy world we live in!
RWAPodcast are Russian shills, but they have interesting take and provide a window into Russian thinking. If their diss here is accurate (or not!) I could judge how fair they are.
Blueberry
8mo ago
a flickering candle to the gigaton flare generated by the actual words and deeds of genuine Americans.
Sure, I think this is a healthy perspective. But Russia, and China, trying to sow discord is an argument some make:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/01/russia-and-china-target-us-protests-on-social-media-294315
While these official social media accounts have not posted doctored images or false information, they have sowed divisive content — a strategy that Russia previously used during the 2017 Catalan referendum in Spain and the 2019 European Parliament election, according to previous analyses of social media activity by POLITICO. The goal, according to disinformation experts, is to foment distrust on both sides of the political spectrum rather than publishing easily identifiable fake social media posts.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/19401612221082052
RT and Sputnik primarily produced negative coverage of the BLM movement, painting protestors as violent, or discussed the hypocrisy of racial justice in America. In contrast, newer media properties like In The NOW, Soapbox, and Redfish supported the BLM movement with clickbait-style videos highlighting racism in America.
Blueberry
11mo ago
It needs to cross the isle. White dudes for Biden would be weird too, so it must be black blokes for Trump.
Blueberry
11mo ago
Hu? She looks very well for a 59 years old, certainly she is more attractive than Trump ever was, and yes, almost every person was hotter when they were young.
Blueberry
1yr ago
ABC:
Federal prosecutors accused Edwards of soliciting nearly $1 million from wealthy donors to hide his affair with videographer Rielle Hunter -- and that he was the father of their baby -- to prevent damage to his reputation as a family man during the campaign.
Edwards' defense team argued the donations were personal gifts from friends, not campaign contributions, and were intended only to hide the affair from his cancer-stricken wife, not voters.
A North Carolina jury found Edwards not guilty of one count of receiving illegal campaign donations but deadlocked on five other charges, leading to a mistrial. The Justice Department ultimately dropped the charges.
Hm, but it didnt work to find Edward guilty.
Blueberry
7mo ago
Nope, looks as if it is already over. That was really weird. I think the society in South Korea needs to seriously re-think those emergency laws.
Blueberry
7mo ago
Just hearing this month old banger:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=3BrCvZmSnKA
Was there now proof that they were eating the pets of people that live in Ohio?
Blueberry
11mo ago
At least 20 years ago all cases seem heavy disabilities:
In 2005 a review study was undertaken of all 22 reported cases between 1997 and 2004.[7] All cases concerned newborns with spina bifida and hydrocephalus. In all cases, at least 2 doctors were consulted outside the medical team. In 17 of 22 cases, a multidisciplinary spina bifida team was consulted. All parents consented to the termination of life; in 4 cases they explicitly requested it. The mean time between reporting of the case and the decision concerning prosecution was 5.3 months.
Blueberry
2yr ago
risks alienating left-leaning Tesla buyers
But they will often just buy other electric cars.
By aligning himself with conservatives, maybe gas-guzzling climate deniers will instead buy Teslas. Which is a net positive for the electric car industry at a whole.
Blueberry
1mo ago
Maybe Matthew just got confused. Jesus prophesied first the destruction of the temple (itself an ending, and one which would be in a generation) and then later got asked by the disciples more about this terrible event but also the end times (different event).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01990-8?fromPaywallRec=false
Global GDP is estimated to be 3.2% lower (lower/upper decile: 1.2–5.4%) at +1.5 °C of global warming, compared to a world with no further climate change beyond recent levels. At +3 °C, global GDP decreases by 10.0% (5.1–14.9%).
The damage of climate change, up to 10% of global GDP, is such an enormous sum that it is always cheaper to instead invest in carbon reduction and reduce climate change.
Of course all the same arguments and attitudes from before apply here: If one doesn’t believe in the scientific consensus in climate change why should one believe the financial modeling and projected costs of extreme weather events are correct?
Regarding the comparison and how to deal with uncertainty: I think one main difference is that vaccination was not needed for the survival of civilization. But renewable energy and electrification is needed in any case, sooner or later, because fossil fuels are a limited resource. Even under most optimistic calculations we have only 100-200 years of oil reserves left.
Blueberry
2yr ago
Let me rephrase: Can you give an example of a trait correlated with basketball skill, which would be erronously found by genetic testing?
Speaking of abortion, this study (from Japan) gathered thousands of comments on reddit currently:
The psychological distress scores were lowest for those who experienced a wanted birth (14%), then went up slightly for those who chose abortion (20.3%). Distress went up again for those choosing adoption (31.5%) and those experiencing an unwanted birth (30.7%). […]
Additionally, the study concludes with these thoughts, “This study showed that among women who experienced an unintended pregnancy, the unwanted birth and adoption group had worse long-term psychological distress consequences. Abortion did not lead to negative psychological consequences. Therefore, it is important to ensure equal and safe abortion opportunities and providing more support to women with unwanted birth.”
"The Democrats' new sunny vibes"
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-democrats-new-sunny-vibes
Noah Smith argues that with Kamala Harris and her surge in the polls gave the Democrats more chill and optimistic vibes. Going back to normalcy. The only thing missing is a "It's morning again in America" ad.
along with the shift from Biden to Harris has come an abrupt and distinct shift in the Democrats’ tone. Whereas Biden’s messaging was often dark and dire, focusing on the MAGA movement’s threat to democracy, Harris’ has been lighter and more reminiscent of Barack Obama or Bill Clinton. Instead of calling Trump a would-be dictator, she has labeled him “weird”. Her campaign is overtly patriotic, draped in American flags. Crowds at her speeches chant “U-S-A! U-S-A!”.
Case in point: I read right now the headline that Joe Biden warns about the "bloodbath" Trump allegedly promised if he loses the election. It is like soothing cool aid for /r/politics, but it does sound a bit hollow from a cranky old Biden, doesn't it? I don't think Harris will make the same doom & gloom attack. Maybe there is a bit good cop / bad cop dynamic here.
Regarding her VP pick Tim Walz I read the worst about him here, but looking at pictures of that guy I just don't feel it. He looks harmless and nice. Noah says the record shows that Walz is a pro market Yimby guy who is pro-nuclear. When the biggest problem of America is that it can't build anymore than you want a guy like him at the top. And mirroring the tone change of the Democrats Walz message is not an angry "kill the rich!" like from blue-haired-Antifa-communists, but a pragmatic "help the poor".
Culturally, everything about Walz is Middle American and middle-class. He spent 24 years in the Army National Guard, and in fact is the highest-ranking enlisted soldier to ever serve in Congress. He was a successful high school football coach — in fact, Kamala Harris refers to him as “Coach Walz”. He’s a hunting enthusiast who poses with guns.
Walz may not appeal to social conservatives, but the aim is to appeal to independents/undecided anyway. And he is the sort of guy who both signals that woke is over, because woke won:
He’s emblematic of the way that wokeness has become a sort of post-Protestant middle-American orthodoxy
"Post-protestant middle-American orthodoxy" is quite mouthful. But it is not quite the professional–managerial class, instead a bit more folksy.
Regarding the lefty fringes, neoliberalism is back on the menu:
I realize there are progressives out there shouting apocalyptic warnings about Project 2025, Trump as a fascist dictator, and so on. I realize there is a leftist fringe who is still ready to burn down America over Gaza. But crucially, none of those people is in charge of the Democratic Party right now.
Blueberry
7mo ago
Explain like I am a 55 year old non-American non-4Chan non-always-online person?
I think I know who Southern Lauren is back from Gamergate (but searching her I find a video that she fled a tradwife life because of her horrible husband?), and I sometimes hear about this Destiny guy (why is it noteworthy that he is gay?), but I have no idea what he is or for what politics he has (was he some StarCraft streamer?) and Nick Fuentes seems to be some rightwingnut troll? What does it mean “to be a fed”? Is this just a diss or a really serious allegation?
I think there should be a more extensive KnowYourMeme or outOfTheLoop explanation?
Blueberry
3mo ago
Zelensky was told to wear a suit, but he ignored this request:
One small but not insignificant factor that irritated Trump was the fact that Zelensky didn't wear a suit, two sources with direct knowledge told Axios. Trump's advisers told Zelensky's team on multiple occasions that it would be more respectful for Zelensky to ditch his military-style attire when visiting the White House.
Blueberry
2yr ago
https://archive.ph/5qyEx#selection-2497.0-2497.8
Religious Zionism lawmaker Orit Strock … gave by way of example a situation in which a Christian wanted to hold a Christmas party with a Christmas tree in a venue owned by a religious Jew.
“I assume an observant Jewish person won’t want to do this because it contravenes his religious faith… Jews gave up their lives to not do such things throughout history. The law must not treat Jewish law as something of lesser value,” she said. "The State of Israel is the state of the Jewish people … "
The end result and goal by the zionist lawmakers is segregation. The "lgbt cake case" is more like that a Jew shouldn't be forced to provide a christmas tree (creative services). But not providing a venue, is like denying to sell a generic cake.
Interesting, I think this is an Anglo thing? In the US Asian Indians are the top earning ethnicity, even wealthier than jewish ethnicity, and many tech CEO/managers are Indian. And in the UK the Tories get the Hindu vote, because they are richer than Muslim Pakistanis, and Rishi Sunak (who is upper class himself) was Prime Minister. Doesn’t this give social status? In Central Europe I think the stereotype is mildly positive/exotic, but there are not many Indians around.
I still dig his art style, but he jumped a tiny little bit to far into the deep end. Anti-Vaxx-Conspiracies, Pedo-Biden ordering pizzas, trans-activists conspiring to destroy everything decent in the world. It is quite something:
And is really really really well written! I read last week the easthunter substack about this topic (which is also linked by Scott in his post) and I got totally lost halfway through. But Scotts strength is to communicate complicated topics clearly. And he makes his opinion visible but still gives room for the other side without snark.
Exceptional blog post! Must have been a ton of work and I was not suprised that at the end he thanked a few other (presumably very smart) people who helped.
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