Crowstep
23hr ago
A tiny blip below replacement means the number might shrink very slowly for a decade or two
Population increased caused by above-replacement fertility is exponential. More babies means more parents who have more babies.
The opposite is also true. Fewer babies means fewer parents to have babies. It won't look like decline at first, because on a population tally a 75-year-old looks the same as a 20-year-old, but pensioners can't have babies, no matter how many of them there are. And the mechanism you are proposing (high-fertility subgroups drag up overall fertility enough to make a difference) has really only happened in Israel. For the other 99% of the world, there is no thermostatic mechanism in evidence. More likely population will plummet in the same way it skyrocketted after the industrial revolution.
It is concerning culturally for ethnic and cultural groups which are below average
They are the ones that maintain industrial society.
There are a bunch of people who have lots of children
Right now, that's subsaharan Africans with average IQs in the 70s, plus anti-modernity breeder cults like the Amish or Haredim. All three require industrial society to be maintained by other people. When the other people disappear, who will provide healthcare for the Amish, welfare for the Haredim or food aid for the Africans?
And more to the point, if industrial society does collapse, that makes us much more vulnerable to existential threats like pandemics, asteroid strikes, nuclear war or misaligned-AI takeover.
Although to be honest, saying 'humanity will survive' is pretty cold comfort. Like consoling the dinosaurs with 'don't worry, that big asteroid won't kill all the animals, the mammals will be fine'
Crowstep
1d ago
So what is going on here?
A more charitable take is that she is describing Britishness as it has been promoted by the British political class for decades (some of them might even believe it). Melanie Phillips didn't invent the 'Britishness is queueing and Paddington and chicken tikka masala' model of national identity, she's just describing it.
And she's right that British ethno-religious-national identity genuinely is different from Jewish identity. Judaism is an ethno-religion, Anglicanism, as a branch of Christianity, is universalist (as evidenced by the fact that we sent missionaries to our colonies when we had them). And when the only people in Britain who still believe in Christianity are pensioners and Africans, then it doesn't work very well as a pillar of our national identity.
Crowstep
1d ago
Seems like this might be worth a top level post in the culture war thread. 'Affirmative action for men to solve the fertility crisis' is a fairly big topic.
Crowstep
1d ago
Perhaps it's smartphones, perhaps it's a whole host of things reaching some critical point of delaying family formation. Who knows?
The Nordics, like most countries, saw a collapse in marriage that caused the collapse in fertility. The timing does suggest that smartphones were the cause (although this demographer thinks that the pre-2012 collapse was due to the recession whereas post-2012 is due to dating apps and shortform video). Interventions in the US would probably be more effective because there is a population of religious Americans that already want to marry and have children, so the incentives would be more effective. Whereas in secular Scandinavia paying people more money to have children won't do much if kids interfere with their expressive individualism.
Crowstep
3d ago
I like lots of immigration. Heavy indoctrination into our ethics and morals. Restrictive voting and restrictive welfare benefits for immigrants.
Does the history of every western country not demonstrate that there is an innate tension between these things? How is it possible to heavily indoctrinate immigrants while also importing millions of them at the same time? Acculturation works best when you have very small numbers, surrounded by members of the host culture.
And no democracy has ever achieved the latter. In every case, immigrants eventually get permanent residence and citizenship and then go on to vote for more immigration.
Obviously this brochure isn't the complete solution, but it's a step in the right direction that admits to the problem and tries to address it.
I guess it's whether you think the modal immigrant rapist is a mistake theorist or a conflict theorist. Shabir Ahmed moved to the UK when he was six, he absolutely knew the rules. But he also thought that white slags were okay to rape and that Pakistanis were '...the supreme race, not those white bastards' (an exact quote from his trial).
I don't think these guys are children who don't realise that rape is wrong. I think they consider it a wrong (as in, a wrong was done to me) but their circle of empathy doesn't extend to the women of their host society.
Crowstep
3d ago
Fight Club
That's the only one I've both seen and read, and the film is definitely better. Although the scene where Jared Leto gets beat up is somehow more explicit in the book.
How would you rate starship troopers?
I've been meaning to re-watch it actually. I saw it as a kid, so I enjoyed the guns and boobs, but obviously any satirical elements went right over my head (which they apparently also did for most of the viewing public). I suspect I'd enjoy it.
The book was pretty good. I struggle with descriptions of physical stuff in literature so I couldn't quite follow all the battle scenes, but I enjoyed inhabiting the strange little world Heinlein built.
EDIT: Rewatched it with my wife the other night. It was just as good as I remember. The CGI is remarkably good for a film made in 1997. The action sequences are exciting, the satirical elements are funny, and I was even invested in the relationship drama.
Crowstep
4d ago
I've been toying with the idea of working out whether faithfulness to the source material is correlated with quality of the end product.
Lords of the Rings was pretty faithful to the books, and an excellent series of films, while the Hobbit was less faithful and much less good, although I can easily imagine a faithful adaptation that was bad, since I'd say the main problem with the Hobbit was that it allowed Peter Jackson complete control to bring out his worst impulses.
The Dune films have been very faithful to the books and I would say good films in general.
The Watchmen film was infamously too faithful to the graphic novel and suffered for it.
Shogun was very loyal to the book and was excellent.
I can't think of any adaptations that are very different to the source material but still good, but I suspect in those cases the film/TV adaptation could end up eclipsing the original, which fades from public memory.
Crowstep
4d ago
Integration is not synonymous with positive outcomes.
For example, the 'intermarriage' (few of these people are literally marrying) rate of Afro-Caribbeans is extremely high (43%) but they also commit something like 10x as much violent crime. They are integrating into the native underclass, and the native underclass are integrating into them.
The demographics of the small boat migrants suggest they will have both low intermarriage rates and very high crime rates.
Crowstep
5d ago
The right has simply other priorities
'The right' is not a person (neither is 'the left' for that matter).
Religious conservatives who oppose abortion because they consider it infanticide and anti-immigration rightists who are willing to talk about HBD on twitter are mostly different people.
Crowstep
6d ago
Looking at Germany, the UK, France, Spain, Italy, and Poland, all of them except for Italy set the final age of consent at 18
The age of consent in the UK is 16, unless 'final age of consent' means something different to the normal use.
Crowstep
6d ago
I would assume phailyoor didn't mean a trans-identifying woman, although he's free to correct me.
Crowstep
8d ago
I use Claude as a normie. Not really doing any 'projects' but just using it as something between a research assistant, superior Google and personal advisor. I prefer it to ChatGPT because the latter will use 2000 words when 200 would do, and because Claude is noticeably less sycophantic.
I found it pretty helpful when I was applying for jobs, but I can believe that another model would have been about as good.
Crowstep
10d ago
Is it their social and political capital? Or is it that people subconsciously see them as lacking agency?
Maybe those two things are related. The Women are Wonderful Effect seems to relate to regarding women as less agentic too.
Crowstep
11d ago
I've been enjoying the videos of Youtuber Bobby Fingers. A deadpan Irishman who makes dioramas of infamous incidents and goes to absurd lengths for throwaway gags. Due to the time it takes to create the dioramas and the time it takes to do all the stupid joke stuff, he releases a video every six months or so.
The most recent one, who crapped on Johnny Depp's bed?
Crowstep
11d ago
I'm not sure the anecdotes quite compare. Families/doctors choosing not to resuscitate is very different from allowing people to choose euthanasia for themselves. A fairer example would be if your father had asked not to be resuscitated but the doctors had ignored his request because not resuscitating him would be illegal.
Crowstep
11d ago
I'm frankly surprised the numbers are so low globally. Switzerland has had euthanasia for decades, and yet most elderly people there still die by very slow decay, with only 2-3% choosing the less painful, more dignified option.
I think comparing gun deaths in the US to MAID deaths in Canada is pretty facile. The age breakdown for MAID looks like this. Young and middle-aged people are tiny rounding errors compared to the overwhelming majority who are elderly. US gun deaths are the opposite, for both suicides and murders.
My grandfather was euthanised. Not legally mind you, this was in the UK in the 90s. But he had terminal cancer and had been given a year to live. He spent it taking lots of holidays and seeing his grandchildren as much as he could. All of my memories of him are from that year.
One year later, right on time, his health rapidly deteriorated. My dad had to drive him to the hospital and wasn't sure if he'd even make the trip, but he did.
Lying in the hospital bed, the doctor asked him: 'As we discussed Mr Crowstep?'
'As we discussed.'
The family left the room, and he was pronounced dead a few minutes later.
I've heard a lot of anti-euthanasia arguments, from people whose beliefs I generally agree with. I understand the points about normalisation, about old people feeling like a burden, getting pressured into euthanasia by grasping relatives and struggling health services. I even get the religious arguments, even though I don't believe in the supernatural.
But it's impossible for me to think about the overwhelming majority of us, the billions who will face an end where bodies and minds are dismantled bit by bit, by the cruel hand of entropy, and say to them:
'No, you have to suffer'.
I certainly know what my grandfather would say to them.
Crowstep
11d ago
That question would be better asked with more precision. If you are literally asking about Hasan's skin colour, then you can just look at him. He has skin as pale as the average European.
If you're asking 'Is he European?', well traditionally Europe ends at Istanbul, which would make Hasan Asian, but his wikipedia page says his father emigrated from Greece, although he has a surname which sound more Turkish, and that his mother has mixed Asian ancestry (Indonesia, Turkey, Kurdistan, Arabia). So on balance I'd describe him as mixed Asian, although that doesn't preclude him from having white skin, as many do in Asia.
Crowstep
12d ago
I enjoy reading these, and they're not unrelated to the thread topic. It's not like the Hock guy repeating the same thing over and over.
Why does making faces and doing silly walks make a conventionally attractive woman even more attractive?
My hypothesis, it doesn't, at least in this case. I've seen that ad before. It's a fantastic ad, but Margaret is making herself much less attractive with all the gestures and stuff. I think that's why it works as an ad. It's somewhat jarring to see a Hollywood starlet make herself look bad, there's probably some countersignalling thing about her being so beautiful that she can goof around like that (note that her hair, clothes and makeup are all perfect). There's probably also some interesting contrast with her hyper-feminine appearance and her (to my eyes) quite masculine gesticulating, which you noted in your third point.
It's very different from the playful, girlish kind of silliness that my wife (and many other women I've known) do. That's more attractive in my eyes and, I would bet, in the eyes of most men.
Crowstep
15d ago
at least I'm sure the interview caused some increase to his Patreon.
Based on the most conservative estimate possible, he makes at least £2,000 per month from Patreon. It doesn't show the $ amount for me, but that's about $2,700. So $32,400 per year.
A more realistic amount would be double that (I can see £2, £4 and £8 tiers) so about $64,000 per year.
EDIT: It looks like you can join his Patreon without paying, so who knows?
Crowstep
16d ago
I mean, you've essentially made full-property rentals illegal. So if you have a family and want to move city, but don't want to buy, tough. If you are young and starting out but want your own place, tough. And it doesn't make housing any cheaper or more abundant, it just makes it less convenient for everyone. There's a reason that even the most insane socialist hell-holes haven't pursued this policy, because it's the sloppiest of slopulism.
It's interesting why that's the case. Lyman Stone says it's because there's an upper bound on free childcare. You can give free childcare from age five (school) or start earlier than that, but ultimately there's a limit because you can't provide free childcare for babies who are -1 years old. Whereas with baby bonuses, you can make them arbitrarily high.
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