DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
Tell me about it.
User ID: 745
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
I know. This was a completely different America, it's like saying that Moscow was once conquered by Poles or something (Russians are very proud of that episode, thanks to propaganda in history lessons, but obviously there is no memory, institutional legacy or military tradition that survived) – a dim fact people learn in school. America that lives today was born in the Civil War and was fully formed in McKinley's era, probably. Since then, it was straight up dunking on weaker powers. With some tasteless underdog posturing from time to time, of course.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
This is of course a projection of your own tribalism and your own deluded moral framework.
Your problem is that your only guiding light, the only salvation you see for your people, is Nazism, and Nazism is still quite degenerate and NGMI. I won't talk of its moral merits, it's just strategically bad because it's aestheticized desperation and refuge from hopelessness in animalistic impulses. A stronk chieftain (high agency!), will to power (rock the boat!), blood-based tribal identity, vibes over facts… in effect, reject modernity, retvrn by rolling back the evolutionary clock 9000 years, to where an average European was a fat bipolar slob with 65 IQ. Nazism was swiftly crushed by Capitalism and Communism. 80 years later, they remain the dominant forces on the planet and continue their dialectic and coevolution. You like to think that Judaism is still more important, the root of all evil. Well, it's underrated for obvious reasons, I'll give you that, but Earth is a big place, and your struggle with Joos is ultimately quite parochial.
I have observed many sincere Nazis over the years and most are suicidal. It doesn't have to be this way. Accept that the dream of Aryan greatness is dead, but you can live if you accept this world on its own terms, where your people have some advantages and disadvantages entirely irrespective of “jewish manipulation” or “suicidal empathy” or what have you, and need to manage them soberly. In particular this requires a good understanding of where you stand relative to that huge chunk of humanity in East Asia. One approach is to cope with 4chan gifs of tortured dogs and industrial accidents, or the book of Ralph Townsend. Another is to grow the fuck up.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
There are so many things wrong with what Trump is doing that I find it silly to write a serious response. Literally an LLM would manage. For one thing, accept Von Der Leyen's offer of mutual tariff drop, that's enough of a “win” for your base and an actual economic boon! Apologize to Denmark and negotiate expanded military presence in Greenland under the existing framework. Offer China a mutual reduction in tariffs for sectors where you actually cannot back up your confidence. Tell Bukele to send back the wantonly arrested innocents for a fair trial. Stop gutting STEM research institutions. Crush or pay off the longshoremen, abolish Jones act. Buy a shitton of equipment for manufacturing drones. Put a few bombers on Guam instead of in Afghanistan, send a garrison onto Taiwan. It's not really complicated, he's done too many errors.
Was it a good idea to help build China into the unrivaled manufacturing and arguably economic colossus that it currently seems to be? I'm pretty sure it wasn't a good idea to try to invade and destroy multiple other countries in the name of "spreading democracy", but maybe you disagree? Was Biden on the right track?
Many questions. Was it a good idea to help build China? Probably not, but was it a bad idea to exploit their growth for salvaging your own one? I guess not again. Invasions? I think that was dumb. Biden? Yes, I think that Biden, or rather the system behind his limp body, was highly effective in reaching at least some subset of relevant goals of the Empire, it was going pretty smoothly. I am surprised to see them so thoroughly vanquished so fast.
How to deescalate? Oh, that's a big one. I think it's psychologically impossible, the US isn't willing to be #2, even if that carries none or minimal material demerits. Neither is Xi willing to give up on his system, or on Taiwan. History will decide.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
I try to be more positive lately.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
It seems you've collected every possible cope and trope, congrats.
“immigration”
Yes, Venezuelans will surely bail you out in the arms race with China, if you don't deport them to El Salvadoran prisons first.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
it gets you from 125% of US to ~155% - not a significant change to debt/GDP.
Fair. This author thinks that the real scale is Chinese economy is 2x of the US or more, all things considered.
With housing especially, if you consider the value of location at all, its hard to see how international "quality" comparisons could be made.
I think American housing value is inflated by the peculiar, unique necessity of getting away from Undesirable People while still being in the vicinity of jobs, schools and other desirable factors.
Why are they not captured?
For example, how do you compare the utility of a high-status American SUV and a noname Chinese SUV with some crazy AI-driven suspension or drone launch pad, especially if they do not meaningfully coexist on either market?
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
Losing means a Guangxi Massacre in every American town and city.
It's not clear what must happen for the world to end up like this, but America is a nation of dreamers; I suppose you can effect even this result if you keep pressing on. However, my optimistic theory of American loss is that due to constant bluffing and irresponsible policy epilepsy the USD loses its status as reserve currency, your fraudulent markets deflate, your internal racial contradictions bloom, and after a while you get a lot quieter and less obnoxious as your living standards crash down to roughly Polish level, which is actually very neat and, given your current course, more than you deserve. The traffic to your shores dies down, as mandated by the Great Leader Donald Ieyasu Trump; the rest of humanity, free of the loathsome star-spangled yoke, peacefully trades and gets richer, while you lick your wounded pride and dream of revenge.
A median scenario is that you simply accept the existence of a bigger guy on the block (bloodlessly, or after trying your luck one last time in the South China Sea) and retreat to your hemisphere, living much the same lives as today.
And I suspect that you know this. But it's too painful to imagine such a world, a boring high-probability world where the sky didn't fall, but you're no longer the uncontested Main Character Nation. Visions of massacres and genocides are anesthetic in comparison, they return you to the familiar domain of Marvel movies. Any Avengers-Level Threat, by laws of narrative, ultimately gets defeated, so there really aren't any stakes or hard decisions to make this way.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
I do know this and I wonder how that coexists with the common East Asian respect for the Hebrews. Have they considered playing one great tribe against another? Or learning the Manchu ways to beat them at their own game, like Koreans try with Talmud? I should ask.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
I really appreciate that Americans have been so fed up with a demented president that they elected a retarded one instead. It's clear that Trump is simply illiterate – and perhaps literally so, do we know for sure that he can read English, has anyone seen him read a book or something to that effect? At the very least his takes aren't better than what I'd expect from an average voter with a stubborn child's notion of economy. Give me money, take my goods, very short words, very petty grievances.
The awesome thing about it is that with a stunted child in total control, you can truly just do things. He could threaten allies, the way he's doing it with Europe: buy our oil (more than we produce… pay in advance, 10 years on year, or whatever!) or we drop out of NATO and leave you to deal with Putin. He could threaten with direct military aggression, like the Greenland case. He'll feel very clever and smug in doing so, and his base will also gloat about his genius.
He may well succeed. American negotiating position (as the world's greatest military power) is strong. We may see democratic nations transform into communist dictatorships liquidating their pension funds to fund American war factories, or taking IMF loans to buy Teslas. There is no ceiling to winning here.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
Looming? What do you mean concretely?
There's reportedly been 9.5 million babies born in China last year. Something like 3.6 million in the US; of those, 1.8 million white babies. Accordingly, in 18 years there will be 5 times as many Chinese 18 year olds as there will be their White American counterparts. Yes, they have lower TFR, but at current trends they'll have a vastly larger workforce for many decades.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
The likelihood of winning a conflict has little relevance to whether that conflict should be waged in the first place.
It actually has a lot of relevance. The real reason you act like it doesn't is that you do not seriously engage with the possibility of losing, and losing badly (losing what? To what degree? How many cards do you have left at the point of losing, and what terms can be negotiated?). People make unreasonable maximalist demands when they are assured of their invulnerability. You treat a great power conflict like another Middle Eastern adventure, “oh we found WMDs in this shithole, our Democracy will perish if we do not conquer it hue hue!”. It's an instinct that's hard to overcome after a century of uninterrupted wins and cost-free losses. The same Main Character Syndrome, coupled with low human capital in Trump team, explains decidedly suboptimal and cost-insensitive means that were chosen for prosecuting the conflict. Americans think they can afford anything, because that's recorded in their institutional DNA. But they have never fought a superior power, due to it never having existed prior to this day. So they have developed an auxiliary belief that the very fact of them antagonizing any power confirms it is inferior. It's hard to feel pity for such a narcissistic people.
it is the serf who acts in accordance with prudence and rationality. The serf is a serf precisely because he correctly calculates that servitude is what gives him the best odds of continued survival. The nobleman, in contrast, acts in accordance with virtue, even when the outcome is certain destruction.
In Imperial Russia, there was a trend when mujiks, LARPing as nobles, initiated duels over petty spats, murdering each other with axes; eventually the state had to put its boot down. Due to extremely low literacy rates they couldn't have plausibly cited Nietzsche when doing so, but I believe that they'd have appreciated your quote.
Self-serving, petulant, handwavy, shallowly aesthetic notions of virtue are cheap and easy to brandish in defense of one's animalistic impulses; any kind of impulsive retardation can be dressed up as a calling of aristocratic, virile masculine nature, there's a whole genre of extremely popular Western music about it, authored by the impromptu warrior aristocracy of the streets. Your own elite has been wiped out to such a degree that this whole discourse is vacuous, we can't consult with a living bearer of a tradition, only speculate. It is plausible that I am wrong and there's just never been any substance to the whole fraud.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
No, you're correct. In fact, had the US continued the course it had just half a year ago, I'd still be largely holding this opinion. But the election of an illiterate boomer strongman does change matters. Xi also has managed to not do anything too self-defeating long enough. I admit I was wrong: the US does not have a functional elite to make appropriate use of its genuine (if transient) political, economic and technological advantages and keep the Chinaman down.
ASI may restore my faith in the previous model, but this is looking like a remote possibility.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
After all, if the American GDP is in some way fake how come the median American can buy so much Chinese production with his or her dollars?
Largely because China (like everyone else) is buying your assets and the USD is the global reserve currency.
Trump is doing what he can to fix this pathological situation, by being laser focused on goods.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
But he actually argues that the Chinese services sector size is underestimated, by Chinese accounting mainly.
We believe China’s GDP and PPP GDP are lowballed by an incomplete transition from the Material Product System (MPS) of national accounts, which excludes services by design. The World Bank is likely dutifully doing its sums with goods consumption in China multiples of the US but measuring services consumption as a fraction of the US.
The United Nations System of National Accounts (UNSNA) provides voluntary guidelines and specifically states that nations should base their national accounts on local conditions. What that has meant in the West is to adopt all UNSNA “innovations” introduced over the years.
Items like imputed rent, legal fees and R&D are now all included in GDP. The UK went hog wild with both illegal drugs and prostitution as now part of their GDP because… hey, why not? UNSNA’s 2008 guidelines explicitly recommend that illegal market activity should be included in GDP.
China’s NBS stood its ground on a conceptual level. Rightly or wrongly, the Leninist MPS considers services necessary costs of material production rather than real value creation. In China’s first attempt at converting MPS to SNA in 1985, it tacked on a ludicrously low 13% to the MPS number and called it China’s services GDP.
Over the years, the World Bank has twisted the arm of the NBS for modest increases to China’s services GDP – with limited success.
The affordability crisis in Western economies, the US in particular, is largely driven by inflation of necessary services – rent, healthcare, education and childcare – not by manufactured goods. While these costs have also gone up in China, they have increased less and much are left out of GDP anyway.
Also not captured by the ICP survey conducted in 2021 are the price and service wars that have broken out across industries and products – a bane on businesses but a boon for consumers.
This is most visible in China’s car market with OEMs either cutting prices to the bone (Hyundai Sonatas down to $17,000 from $42,000) or offering cutting-edge technology for peanuts (a 2,000-kilometer range BYD Q plug-in hybrid electric vehicle for $14,000). The price of solar panels fell 50% in 2023 and continues to trend down in 2024. CATL has announced plans to cut lithium-ion battery prices in half by the end of 2024.
Restaurants are offering white glove perks like hot towels, lotion by the sink and snazzy remodeled decors. Hairdressers hand out bottled water and fruit plates. Tech companies have slashed large language model (LLM) prices to basically free. Service quality in China, impossible to quantify, is now head and shoulders above the West and probably even Japan.
Adherence to UNSNA has caused a breakdown in the meaning of GDP. As necessary services become an ever larger share of Western economies, their growth does not appear to result in discernable improvements in living standards.
It's not a workshop country. The thesis isn't that they have a strong industry - everyone knows that.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
This would actually make more sense yes. Allegedly, Trump’s Love for Tariffs Began in Japan’s ’80s Boom:
WASHINGTON — Donald J. Trump lost an auction in 1988 for a 58-key piano used in the classic film “Casablanca” to a Japanese trading company representing a collector. While he brushed off being outbid, it was a firsthand reminder of Japan’s growing wealth, and the following year, Mr. Trump went on television to call for a 15 percent to 20 percent tax on imports from Japan.
“I believe very strongly in tariffs,” Mr. Trump, at the time a Manhattan real estate developer with fledgling political instincts, told the journalist Diane Sawyer, before criticizing Japan, West Germany, Saudi Arabia and South Korea for their trade practices. “America is being ripped off,” he said. “We’re a debtor nation, and we have to tax, we have to tariff, we have to protect this country.”
Thirty years later, few issues have defined Mr. Trump’s presidency more than his love for tariffs — and on few issues has he been more unswerving. Allies and historians say that love is rooted in Mr. Trump’s experience as a businessman in the 1980s with the people and money of Japan, then perceived as a mortal threat to America’s economic pre-eminence.
That's from 2019. If China is just a stand-in for Japan (which he also tariffed anyway), it is no wonder that he acts so brazenly. You can bully Japan with no repercussions. He can finally get back at them for that piano humiliation.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
I can only say that engaging with the Chinese, and with people like you, has gradually convinced me that White People (Hajnali European stock specifically) are basically jumped-up serfs, the confused lower caste of prawns from District 9, with little more to offer to the world sans stale kanging and hollow, corporate-coded pretense of “soul” that, if it ever existed, resided in your currently extinct owners. You don't even notice my point about simple economics and logistics, so lost you are in your racial superiority masturbation. But of course those issues are related.
if Japan were in China's position instead
But it isn't, and you are largely responsible for that, because your previous generation had the exact same attitude towards the Japanese. Deaths from overwork, rigid hierarchy, soulless collectivist automatons cheating and copying to flood the markets and dispossess our Christian Germanic workers – this can't be allowed, can it? Oh, what a pity that now that we know them better, Japan is a geriatric country of no ambition, that mainly produces anime to give you some respite from the toxic antihuman sludge of your own media. (Presumably this is the fault of Joos. Somehow for all your natural nobility of spirit you are not capable of resisting a tiny tribe of natural wordcels. At least the Chinese managed to overthrow the Manchu).
Regrettably, China is 10 times larger and the same tricks won't work.
A change in American economic policy sent global markets into a tailspin, so objectively speaking, America is in fact a big deal.
Yes, you can do a great deal of damage to humanity. This is akin to the bafflingly swinish line of argument that “China needs us more than we need them, because they need to sell their valuable manufactured goods to someone; our consumption is more valuable than production”. We shall see how well this philosophy works.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
My impression after obsessively monitoring this situation for days (of course) is that neither side will fold, tariffs are here to stay, and everyone will be poor and mad for it. China of course won't fold, the idea that they're at risk is preposterous, they can well weather complete cessation of export to the US.
Broadly I have concluded that the main problem the US faces is racism towards the Chinese; the ill-earned sense of centrality and irreplaceability. I believe that Trump, Navarro and the rest of that gang are as misinformed as the average MAGA guy on Twitter, given how they speak and that amusing formula. Americans still think that their great consumption is the linchpin of Chinese economy, 10-30% of their GDP (it's more like 3%); that the Chinese produce apparel, “trinkets” and low-quality materials (they also produce things that Americans plausibly cannot start producing at the same quality in years); that American IP is vital for their industry (they're making their own software, OSes, CPUs…) and so on. The idea that American de-industrialization is a product of betrayal by Wall Street Elites who offshored jobs to China also feeds into the delusional notion of possible parity – but the truth is that there has never been a point in history where American industry had scale or diversity comparable to what's going on in China now. The issue with their bad financials is also overblown; as for losing markets, they have the capital at hand for consumption stimulus. This guy from Beijing writes:
China’s PPP GDP is only 25% larger than that of the US? Come on people… who are we kidding? Last year, China generated twice as much electricity as the US, produced 12.6 times as much steel and 22 times as much cement. China’s shipyards accounted for over 50% of the world’s output while US production was negligible. In 2023, China produced 30.2 million vehicles, almost three times more than the 10.6 million made in the US.
On the demand side, 26 million vehicles were sold in China last year, 68% more than the 15.5 million sold in the US. Chinese consumers bought 434 million smartphones, three times the 144 million sold in the US. As a country, China consumes twice as much meat and eight times as much seafood as the US. Chinese shoppers spent twice as much on luxury goods as American shoppers.
…It is prima facie ridiculous that China’s production and consumption, at multiples of US levels, can be realistically discounted for lower quality/features to arrive at a mere 125% of US PPP GDP. … Similarly, analysts who lament that China accounts for 30% of the world’s manufacturing output but only 13% of household consumption are far off the mark. China accounts for 20-40% of global demand for just about every consumer product but much of the services it consumes have been left out of national accounts.
Accordingly, with a higher real GDP, their effective debt to GDP ratio may be as low as 150%, not 200-300%. They have US assets to sell too.
So China can trivially absorb half of the overcapacity freed by reduced trade with the US, and might find buyers for the rest.
My thesis is that in picking this fight, Americans don't understand that they're actually not that big of a deal. Unfortunately, their delusions are globally shared and become reality in their own right. But perhaps not enough to offset the gross physical one.
The actual dangerous thing for China here is that Trump seems determined to immiserate the whole planet, completely irrespective of any geopolitical rivalry, because he's an illiterate anarcho-primitivist and thinks that all trade is theft unless it's barter, basically. America vs. The World, especially with a chain reaction of tariffs on Chinese (and likely also Vietnamese etc…) capacity spillover, results in massive reduction of productivity for everyone. For now, nations like Vietnam are unilaterally dropping tariffs on American crap, but that can't be a big effect because their tariffs were low to begin with, and Americans just don't and cannot produce enough at price points that people of those nations can afford. (We may see IMF loans for 3rd world countries importing overpriced American beef or Teslas or whatever to placate Don, but I doubt it'll be sustainable). I suppose in the long run the idea is that Optimus bots will be churning out products with superhuman efficiency, at least Lutnick argues as much. But that's still years away. Perhaps this extortion of zero balance trade (so in effect, the demand that trading partners buy non-competitive American products) is meant to finance the transition to posthuman automated economy. Bold strategy.
I am of course very amused and curious to see how it'll go. Will Fortress America intimidate the rest of us into submission, likely forever? Or will it be so stubborn, brutal and ham-fisted that humanity will finally rebel and ostracize the rogue state, letting it broil in its own supremacist fantasies? Can Bessent et al. turn 1D “trade le bad” checkers of the King of Understanding Things (懂王) into 4D chess? We shall see.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
All I can say based on my sources (which we probably share) is that Hanania, if anything, understates his case, fearful of NDAs, and so focuses on blatant but not very consequential demonstrations of ineptitude. The brain rot in this administration is unbelievable, it's on par with the goofy early Communist governments I've marveled at in historical materials. People here who eloquently steelman them have their work cut out for them. They'll easily exceed the wokes in concocting justifications for pure primitive malice and barbarity in the coming years.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1mo ago
It's pretty clear from his chart the tariff above 10% is a rate equal to half of the other nation's tariff on US goods.
are you seriously missing the point? How does this brazen lie pass the most basic sanity check? Do you think Vietnam tariffs the US to the tune of 92%?
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2mo ago
If you're really an SWE, I must presume that you're not speaking in good faith here.
Asking it for a gear setup for a specific boss results in horrible results, despite the fact that it could just have copied the literally wiki (which has some faults like overdoing min-maxing, but it's generally coherent). The net utility of this answer was negative given the incorrect answer, the time it took for me to read it, and the cost of generating it (which is quite high, I wonder what happens when these companies want to make money).
You must know that GPT 4.5 is pretty mid as far as instruction models of this generation go. DeepSeek's latest is close in performance and literally 100-200x cheaper. More importantly, what do you think would be a random college-educated human's score on Runescape questions? It is so trivial to grant these systems access to tools for web browsing as to not be worth talking about.
The rest of your comment is the same style. What is amazing and terrifying about LLMs is not their knowledge retrieval but generality and in-context learning. At sufficient context length and trained to appropriately leverage existing tools, there is nothing in the realm of pure cognitive work they cannot do on human level. This is not hard to understand. So tell me: what are you going for? Just trying to assuage your own worries?
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2mo ago
From what I can tell it is a giant improvement over V3 and a substantial one over R2. People from 4chan are saying it's suspiciously good at following their outlines and even uses a similar format, so they guess it's been trained on their writing (DeepSeek openly trains on user data). Generally it's in the same league as Sonnets. I recommend giving it a try.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2mo ago
Consider that the gap between “me and a woman I have had sex with” may not generalize to World Cup men vs. women, logically speaking. Yes, it actually does (assuming me and the woman are average) but we know that [male] athletes in strength sports are basically superhumans, they are incomparably stronger and more fit than the general population. If you do not pay any attention to sports and aren't very observant, it's easy to believe that there exist outliers, massive 250 lb Amasons with six-packs and 20 inch biceps, somewhere out there. They exist in fiction, after all…
The biggest reason that the strongest women are much weaker than the strongest men is not the average gap. It's that they have a much lower ceiling.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2mo ago
You are noticing that none of these companies want to race. The whole competition to build Sand God is largely kayfabe. Western AI scene is not really a market, it's a highly inefficient cartel (with massive state connections too), which builds up enormous capacity but drags its feet on products because none of them ultimately believe their business models are sustainable in the case of rapid commoditization. This is why DeepSeek was such a disruption: not only was it absurdly cheap (current estimates put their annual operations cost at like $200M), not only were they Chinese, but they dared to actively work to bring the costs of frontier capabilities to zero, make it logistically mundane, in alignment with Liang Wenfeng's personal aesthetic and nationalist preferences.
I think R1's release has sped up every Western frontier lab by 20-50% simply by denying them this warm feeling that they can feed the user base some slop about hidden wonder weapons in their basements, release incremental updates bit by bit, and focus on sales. Now we are beginning to see a bit more of their actual (still disappointingly low, not a single one of these companies could have plausibly made R1 on that cluster I think) power level.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2mo ago
Again I have to quote Boaz Barak (currently OpenAI): AI will change the world, but won’t take it over by playing “3-dimensional chess”.
Consider the task of predicting the consequences of a particular action in the future. In any sufficiently complex real-life scenario, the further away we attempt to predict, the more there is inherent uncertainty. For example, we can use advanced methods to predict the weather over a short time frame, but the further away the prediction, the more the system “regresses to the mean”, and the less advantage that highly complex models have over simpler ones (see Figure 4). As in meteorology, this story seems to play out similarly in macroeconomic forecasting. In general, we expect prediction success to behave like Figure 1 below—the error increases with the horizon until it plateaus to a baseline level of some simple heuristic(s). Hence while initially highly sophisticated models can beat simpler ones by a wide margin, this advantage eventually diminishes with the time horizon.
Tetlock’s first commandment to potential superforecasters is to triage: “Don’t waste time either on “clocklike” questions (where simple rules of thumb can get you close to the right answer) or on impenetrable “cloud-like” questions (where even fancy statistical models can’t beat the dart-throwing chimp). Concentrate on questions in the Goldilocks zone of difficulty, where effort pays off the most.” Another way to say it is that outside of the Goldilocks zone, more effort or cognitive power does not give much returns.
Rather, based on what we know, it is likely that AI systems will have a “sweet spot” of a not-too-long horizon in which they can provide significant benefits. For strategic and long-term decisions that are far beyond this sweet spot, the superior information processing skills of AIs will give diminishing returns. (Although AIs will likely supply valuable input and analysis to the decision makers.). An AI engineer may well dominate a human engineer (or at least one that is not aided by AI tools), but an AI CEO’s advantage will be much more muted, if any, over its human counterpart. Like our world, such a world will still involve much conflict and competition, with all sides aided by advanced technology, but without one system that dominates all others.
In essence, irreducible error and chaotic events blunt the edge of any superintelligent predictor in a sufficiently high-dimensional environment.
What remains to be answered for me:
- Can AI planners interfere in the events with enough frequency and precision to proactively suppress chaos and reduce the world to a game of chess they can model to the draw?
- Is a decently superhuman prediction and execution not enough to eliminate warm, simply because humans are already close to this level and only initiate wars they won't win (instead of pragmatically retreating to some defensible compromise) in feats of retardation (see: Russia)?
These prototypes look nothing like the 3D models you have now, however.
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