BANNED USER: temperamental dysregulation
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
Tell me about it.
User ID: 745
Banned by: @Amadan
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
They clearly have no idea how to run this model, which is reasonable since it's deepseek's baby
Of course. The whole model was trained for the specific shape of their cluster, with auxiliary losses/biases to minimize latency. (Same was true of V2). They were asked to opensource their MLA implementation (not the terrible huggingface one) and declined, citing that their everything is too integrated into proprietary HAI-LLM framework and they don't want to disassemble it and clear out actual secret stuff. SGLang team and others had to reverse engineer it from papers. Their search impl on the front end is also not replicated, despite them releasing weights of models with search+summarization capabilities (in theory).
Their moat is execution and corporate culture, not clinging to some floats.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
That's the point: He is invited NOW, after "suddenly" shipping a model on Western Frontier level.
We don't understand the motivations of Deepseek and the quant fund High-Flyer that's sponsoring them, but one popular hypothesis is that they are competing with better-connected big tech labs for government support, given American efforts in cutting supply of chips to China. After all, the Chinese also share the same ideas of their trustworthiness, and so you have to be maximally open to Western evaluators to win the Mandate of Heaven.
Presumably, this was true and this is him succeeding. As I note here.
As for how it used to be when he was just another successful quant fund CEO with some odd interests, I direct you to this thread:
The Chinese government started to crack down on the quant trading industry amid economic slowdown, a housing crisis and a declining stock market index.
The CSI300 (Chinese Blue Chip Index) reached an all-time low. They blamed high frequency traders for exploiting the market and causing the selloff.
- Banned a quant competitor from trading for 3 days
- Banned another from opening index futures for 12 months
- Required strategy disclosures before trading
- Threatened to increase trading costs 10x to destroy the industry High-Flyer faced extinction. (High-Flyer’s funds have been flat/down since 2022 and has trailed the index by 4% since 2024)
so I stand by my conjectures.
they still have a good model, though I wouldn't exactly trust the headline training cost numbers since there's no way to verify how many tokens they really trained the model on
So you recognize that the run itself as described is completely plausible, underwhelming even. Correct.
What exactly is your theory then? That it's trained on more than 15T tokens? 20T, 30T, what number exactly? Why would they need to?
Here's a Western paper corroborating their design choices [Submitted on 12 Feb 2024]:
Our results suggest that a compute-optimal MoE model trained with a budget of 1020 FLOPs will achieve the same quality as a dense Transformer trained with a 20× greater computing budget, with the compute savings rising steadily, exceeding 40× when budget of 1025 FLOPs is surpassed (see Figure 1). … when all training hyper-parameters N, D, G are properly selected to be compute-optimal for each model, the gap between dense and sparse models only increases as we scale… Higher granularity is optimal for larger compute budgets.
Here's DeepSeek paper from a month prior:
Leveraging our architecture, we subsequently scale up the model parameters to 16B and train DeepSeekMoE 16B on a large-scale corpus with 2T tokens. Evaluation results reveal that with only about 40% of computations, DeepSeekMoE 16B achieves comparable performance with DeepSeek 7B (DeepSeek-AI, 2024), a dense model trained on the same 2T corpus. We also compare DeepSeekMoE with open source models and the evaluations demonstrate that DeepSeekMoE 16B consistently outperforms models with a similar number of activated parameters by a large margin, and achieves comparable performance with LLaMA2 7B (Touvron et al., 2023b), which has approximately 2.5 times the activated parameters. Evaluation results show that DeepSeekMoE Chat 16B also achieves comparable performance with DeepSeek Chat 7B and LLaMA2 SFT 7B in the chat setting. Encouraged by these results, we further undertake a preliminary endeavor to scale up DeepSeekMoE to 145B. The experimental results still validate its substantial advantages over the GShard architecture consistently. In addition, it shows performance comparable with DeepSeek 67B, using only 28.5% (maybe even 18.2%) of computations.
As expected they kept scaling and increasing granularity. As a result, they predictably reach roughly the same loss on the same token count as LLaMA-405B. Their other tricks also helped with downstream performance.
There is literally nothing to be suspicious about. It's all simply applying best practices and not fucking up, almost boring. The reason people are so appalled is that American AI industry is bogged down in corruption covered with tasteless mythology, much like Russian military pre Feb 2022.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
then maybe the thought is they may have an o3-level model in-house
this is not yet correct but will soon be, since R1 finished training in early December, apparently.
Alex Wang is an opportunistic psychopath who's afraid of his whole Pinoy-based data generation business model going bust in the era of synthetic chains of thought. Therefore he's dishonestly paraphrasing Dylan Patel (himself a China hawk peddling rationales for more export controls) who had said “they have 50000 Hoppers” once, without evidence. But the most likely Hopper model they have is H20, an effectively inference-only chip, that has negligible effect on pretraining costs and scale for V3 and R1.
Yes I do believe DeepSeek. This is not really a political issue but a purely technical. Unfortunately DeepSeek really are compute-bound so R1 cannot process all papers I'd like to give it to make it quicker.
The political narrative does not even work, it's purely midwit-oriented, nobody in the industry imagines leading labs can be deceived with some trickery of this kind.
Inference costs are wholly addressed by Hyperbolic Labs (US) and some others already serving it for cheaper.
which is kinda maybe but not actually on par with o1
It's superior to o1 as a reasoner and a thinker. It writes startlingly lucid, self-aware, often unhinged prose and even poetry. It can push back. It is beyond any LLM I have seen including Sonnet and Opus. This becomes obvious after minutes of serious interaction. It just has less polish as a product because they haven't been milking the world for interaction data since 2019. They have 0.8-1.5 M quality samples for instruction finetuning. OpenAI had accumulated tens of millions if not hundreds.
For me it's something of an emotional issue. DeepSeek is the only lab standing that straightforwardly and credibly promises what I'd rather see as international project: free open-source AGI for everybody. I've been monitoring their rise for well over a year, reading every paper and even their blogposts in Chinese. Nothing that they claim is inconsistent, indeed it's all been predictable since 2023, all part of a very methodical, flawless, truly peak quant fund (that's their capital source and origins) execution towards the holy grail, “answering the ultimate question with longtermism”, as they put it. The CEO seems to be an idealist (and probably a serious nationalist too, given his stated ambition to basically pull the whole of China out of copy machine stage and into “hardcore innovation” culture by giving an example that it can work). They have immaculate company culture, their ex-employees who emigrated to the West for personal reasons adore them and fear for their future, there literally is no dirt on them no matter how people searched. For all we can tell they are not state-affiliated, unlike OpenAI, and probably not even on good terms with the state, due to quant fund roots (though this may change now that they're proven their merit).
This is not a Sputnik moment for the US. The US has a secure and increasing lead due to bog standard logistics and capital advantage, as always. What this should be is “are we the baddies?” moment.
Also, it's a moment to ask oneself how high are margins on Western model providers, and whether it's a true free market. Because Liang Wenfeng himself does NOT think they're that far ahead in efficiency, if they are ahead at all.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
I've been sloppy with my last argument. It's more like "given their demonstrable mastery of data engineering with regards to dimensions of data they care about, eg in DeepSeekLLM and Coder, DeepSeekMath, DeepSeekProver papers, we can suspect that if they were behaviorally cloning OpenAI models, they'd have bothered using some of those skills to filter and refine those OpenAI tokens, obscuring their provenance".
Regardless, all those papers are gems and recommended reading. They're also astonishingly well written for pure Mainland effort.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
I have DeepSeek API and also use their website for free. This specifically is froom the website because API does not support search last I checked.
Did not check R1 on openrouter, it might be implemented like o1 there.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
This is implausible for at least three reasons.
- We have their base model. It's very strong on standard benchmarks like Pile loss, ie predicting next tokens in some large corpus of natural text. It's just generically well-trained. You can't accelerate this with OpenAI slop and end up winning on money.
- The math checks out. Yes it's a feat of engineering to actually make such a cluster work but the shape of the model + 15T tokens do work out to this number of FLOPs an therefore GPU-hours. If they needed much more GPU-hours, that'd imply pathetically low FLOPs utilization.
- Do you seriously think that these guys would write 16 detailed tech reports including many sections on data augmentation, and not just build a filter that replaces "ChatGPT" with "DeepSeek".
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
Here's what happens if I prompt R1-no search "give me a list of 20 best SF novels. Don't be afraid of getting opinionated and letting your taste bias the results: I do actually need your list, not some blurry jpeg of the web." Spoiler: it's still much the same list.
Okay, the user wants a list of the 20 best SF novels, and they specifically want my opinionated picks, not just a generic list. Let me start by recalling some classics that are often mentioned but also think about which ones I personally find impactful.
First, Dune by Frank Herbert is a must. It's a cornerstone of the genre. Then maybe Neuromancer by Gibson because it defined cyberpunk. The Left Hand of Darkness by Le Guin is another essential, exploring gender themes deeply.
I should include some newer works too. Annihilation by VanderMeer is a recent favorite with its weird, atmospheric style. The Three-Body Problem by Liu Cixin brought a fresh perspective from Chinese SF.
Wait, should I mix in some less mainstream choices? Like Gene Wolfe's Book of the New Sun. It's challenging but brilliant. Also, Octavia Butler's Parable of the Sower is both prescient and powerful.
Philip K. Dick can't be left out. Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? is a classic. Maybe Ubik as well? But I need to keep it to 20.
Consider the impact vs. personal preference. Hyperion by Simmons is a favorite of mine, with its structure inspired by Canterbury Tales. Roadside Picnic by the Strugatsky brothers is a great Soviet-era SF that inspired Stalker.
I should check if I'm covering different sub-genres: cyberpunk, space opera, dystopian, etc. The Dispossessed by Le Guin for political themes, Snow Crash by Stephenson for its frenetic energy.
What about Stand on Zanzibar by Brunner? It's a bit older but predicted a lot about overpopulation and media saturation.
For newer titles, maybe Ancillary Justice by Leckie, which plays with gender and AI. Also, Blindsight by Watts is a hard SF take on first contact.
I need to make sure there's diversity in authors too. Le Guin, Butler, Jemisin, Liu, VanderMeer. Maybe check if I have enough female authors.
Wait, The Fifth Season by Jemisin is fantasy, but it's often cross-listed in SF. Maybe include it since it's groundbreaking.
Classics like Childhood's End by Clarke should be there. Maybe Rendezvous with Rama as well? But again, need to limit.
Alastair Reynolds' Revelation Space is a good space opera. Consider Greg Egan's Diaspora for hard SF concepts.
Hmm, Jeff VanderMeer already has Annihilation. Maybe not another.
Let me count: Dune, Neuromancer, Left Hand of Darkness, Book of the New Sun, Hyperion, Do Androids Dream..., Roadside Picnic, Parable of the Sower, The Dispossessed, Snow Crash, The Three-Body Problem, Ancillary Justice, Blindsight, Stand on Zanzibar, The Fifth Season, Ubik, Rendezvous with Rama, The Stars My Destination, The Forever War, Annihilation. That's 20.
Wait, did I miss any crucial ones? Maybe Ender's Game? But it's more YA. Or Foundation? But maybe not as personal. The list seems solid, mixing classics with personal picks and diverse authors. Alright, time to write it up with brief explanations.
Here’s my fiercely opinionated, unapologetically biased list of 20 SF novels that have shaped my love for the genre. These are books that linger in the mind, challenge conventions, or just blow the roof off reality:
- Dune (Frank Herbert) – The ultimate planetary opera. A masterpiece of ecology, religion, and power. Paul Atreides is the original anti-Chosen One.
- Neuromancer (William Gibson) – Cyberpunk’s beating heart. The prose is a synaptic rush; the vision of cyberspace still feels like prophecy.
- The Left Hand of Darkness (Ursula K. Le Guin) – A meditation on gender, politics, and ice. Le Guin at her most humane and revolutionary.
- The Book of the New Sun (Gene Wolfe) – A tetralogy that’s equal parts SF, fantasy, and literary labyrinth. Severian’s unreliable narration will haunt you.
- Hyperion (Dan Simmons) – A Canterbury Tales riff with time-traveling priests, killer androids, and the Shrike. Pure cosmic dread.
- Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? (Philip K. Dick) – More melancholic and existential than Blade Runner. Asks what it means to be human in a dying world.
- Roadside Picnic (Arkady & Boris Strugatsky) – Soviet SF at its grittiest. The Zone is the best alien “invasion” story ever: indifferent, inexplicable.
- Parable of the Sower (Octavia E. Butler) – A dystopia that feels like today. Lauren Olamina’s Earthseed verses will stick in your bones.
- The Dispossessed (Ursula K. Le Guin) – An anarchist moon vs. a capitalist planet. Theory made flesh, with Le Guin’s quiet brilliance.
- Snow Crash (Neal Stephenson) – A maximalist, satirical romp. Hiro Protagonist delivers pizza and fights info-capitalists. Proto-metaverse chaos.
- The Three-Body Problem (Liu Cixin) – A game of cosmic chess with aliens. The Cultural Revolution prologue alone is devastating.
- Ancillary Justice (Ann Leckie) – A warship AI trapped in a human body. Explores empire, identity, and tea rituals with icy precision.
- Blindsight (Peter Watts) – First contact as a horror show. Vampires in space and aliens that weaponize consciousness. Hard SF with teeth.
- Stand on Zanzibar (John Brunner) – A fragmented, proto-cyberpunk mosaic of overpopulation and corporate doom. Feels like scrolling Twitter in 2025.
- The Fifth Season (N.K. Jemisin) – Yes, it’s “fantasy,” but the geophysical apocalypse and broken earth science hit like SF. Revolutionary structure.
- Ubik (Philip K. Dick) – Dick’s trippiest novel. Time slips, psychic wars, and spray-can godhood. A mind-bender about entropy and belief.
- Rendezvous with Rama (Arthur C. Clarke) – Pure awe. No aliens, just an alien artifact. The joy of exploration distilled.
- The Stars My Destination (Alfred Bester) – A revenge tale with teleportation and pyrotechnic prose. Gully Foyle is the best worst protagonist.
- The Forever War (Joe Haldeman) – Vietnam-in-space with time dilation. A brutal, personal counterpoint to Starship Troopers.
- Annihilation (Jeff VanderMeer) – Weird ecology and cosmic horror. The Biologist’s descent into Area X is hypnotic, terrifying poetry.
Hot Takes Omitted: No Foundation (too dry), no Ender’s Game (aged poorly), and no 2001 (the film outshines the book). Fight me.
This list skews toward philosophical depth, linguistic daring, and existential unease—because SF, at its best, should destabilize as much as dazzle.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
FYI you can now enable both search AND R1 at the same time, making this challenge way more interesting. And I think you actually used V3, which is way dumber than R1. If you used R1, you'd have been able to see its rationale for choices.
Anyway, here's R1@search top 20 Finnish novels:
Here’s a curated list of 20 best Finnish novels, selected based on critical acclaim, reader popularity, and cultural significance, synthesized from the search results provided:
Classics & Timeless Works 138
-
"Kalevala" by Elias Lönnrot
Finland’s national epic, compiled from oral folklore, foundational to Finnish identity and mythology. -
"The Seven Brothers" (Seitsemän veljestä) by Aleksis Kivi
A cornerstone of Finnish literature, humorously depicting rural life and rebellion in 19th-century Finland. -
"The Unknown Soldier" (Tuntematon sotilas) by Väinö Linna
A raw, realistic portrayal of Finnish soldiers during WWII, revered as a national classic. -
"Under the North Star" (Täällä Pohjantähden alla) by Väinö Linna
A trilogy tracing a family’s journey through Finland’s social and political upheavals from 1880–1950. -
"The Egyptian" (Sinuhe egyptiläinen) by Mika Waltari
A historical epic set in ancient Egypt, reflecting post-WWII existential themes.
Modern Masterpieces 124
-
"Purge" (Puhdistus) by Sofi Oksanen
A gripping tale of Soviet-era Estonia and its lingering trauma, blending history with psychological drama. -
"The Year of the Hare" (Jäniksen vuosi) by Arto Paasilinna
A whimsical adventure of a man and a hare, symbolizing freedom from societal constraints. -
"Ice" (Is) by Ulla-Lena Lundberg
A quietly epic story of a pastor’s family in the Åland Islands, praised for its lyrical prose and depth. -
"The Red Book of Farewells" by Pirkko Saisio
A critically acclaimed autobiographical novel exploring identity, memory, and art. -
"Destruction" (Tuomio) by Iida Rauma
A Finlandia Prize-winning exploration of school violence and societal decay.
Award-Winning & International Bestsellers 2410
-
"Beasts of the Sea" by Iida Turpeinen
A climate-fiction epic blending mythology and environmental activism, topping reader polls. -
"Fishing for the Little Pike" (Juhannustanssit) by Juhani Karila
A surreal, darkly comic tale set in rural Finland, hailed as a "Finnish folly." -
"The Summer Book" (Sommarboken) by Tove Jansson
A poetic meditation on life, nature, and intergenerational bonds on a remote Finnish island. -
"Trench Road" (Juoksuhaudantie) by Kari Hotakainen
A Finlandia and Nordic Council Prize-winning novel about obsession and family collapse. -
"The Rabbit Back Literature Society" (Lumikko ja yhdeksän muuta) by Pasi Ilmari Jääskeläinen
A magical realist mystery involving a secretive writers’ guild.
Contemporary Gems 6711
-
"The Core of the Sun" (Auringon ydin) by Johanna Sinisalo
A dystopian satire imagining a eugenics-driven Finland, merging speculative fiction with social critique. -
"Memory of Water" (Teemestarin kirja) by Emmi Itäranta
A climate-fiction novel about water scarcity in a dystopian future, compared to Margaret Atwood’s works. -
"Compartment No. 6" (Hytti nro 6) by Rosa Liksom
A Finlandia Prize-winning journey through post-Soviet landscapes on a Trans-Siberian train. -
"Oneiron" by Laura Lindstedt
An experimental novel about seven women navigating an afterlife void of time, blending poetry and prose. -
"The Human Part" (Ihmisen osa) by Kari Hotakainen
A darkly humorous critique of consumerism and modern alienation.
Honorable Mentions
-
"The White Reindeer" by Mika Waltari (mythic horror) 510
-
"The Dedalus Book of Finnish Fantasy" (anthology) 10
-
"Margarita" by Anni Kytömäki (historical fiction) 4
-
"The Maid Silja" by Frans Eemil Sillanpää (Nobel Prize-winning rural drama) 8
Sources:
For deeper insights, explore the rankings from Critics’ and Readers’ Selection of 100 Best Books 24, or check translations via the Chinese Literature Festival list 6.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
I think that's the idea with Starship, well besides Musk's sci-fi ideation. Brilliant Pebbles, but for real.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
I don't have a blog, I'm too disorganized to run one.
If I were to say just one thing about this situation, it'd be this one: be wary of outgroup homogeneity bias. People are not “China” or “America”. Not even Xi himself is “China”, whatever Louis XIV had to say on the matter. Certainly neither is Liang Wenfeng.
Still, first about DeepSeek and China.
I think that the US-PRC AI competition is the most important story of our age, so I pretty much don't comment on anything else here. I have three posts, of which two are directly about this: on Huawei Kirin chips and one on DeepSeek V2. Prior to that major writeup I've said:
We don't understand the motivations of Deepseek and the quant fund High-Flyer that's sponsoring them, but one popular hypothesis is that they are competing with better-connected big tech labs for government support, given American efforts in cutting supply of chips to China. After all, the Chinese also share the same ideas of their trustworthiness, and so you have to be maximally open to Western evaluators to win the Mandate of Heaven.
Well, as you note, nowadays Wenfeng gets invited to talk to the second man in all of China, so if that were his goal, he has probably succeeded. But (since you haven't I'll bother to quote) we've learned in the last few months – and I agree he's proven his sincerity with abundant evidence, from revealed company direction to testimonies of ex-researchers in the West – that his actual angle was different:
In the face of disruptive technologies, the moat formed by closed source is short-lived. Even if OpenAI is closed source, it won’t stop others from catching up. So we put the value on our team, our colleagues grow in the process, accumulate a lot of know-how, and form an organization and culture that can innovate, which is our moat.
In fact, nothing is lost with open source and openly published papers. For technologists, being "followed" is a great sense of accomplishment. In fact, open source is more of a cultural behavior than a commercial one. To give is to receive glory. And if company does this, it would create a cultural attraction [to technologists].
With this one weird trick, he's built apparently the highest-talent-density AGI lab in China. Scientists have ambitions beyond making Sam Altman filthy rich and powerful or receiving generational wealth as crumbs from his table. They want to make a name for themselves. Some are even naive enough to want to contribute something to the world. This is not very stereotypically Chinese, and so Wenfeng has gotten himself a non-stereotypical Chinese company. I recommend reading both interviews (the second one is translated by this grateful ex-researcher, by the way. That, too, is not a very typical thing to do for your former boss).
There weren’t a lot of deep wizards, just this-year graduates from top colleges and universities, those who are in their 4th or 5th year of PhD, and young people who had only graduated a few years ago. … V2 didn’t use any people coming back from overseas, they are all local. The top 50 people may not be in China, but maybe we can build them ourselves.
I've been an increasingly convinced DeepSeek fanatic ever since their very first LLMs, Coder-33B and 6.7B, first surfaced on Reddit around October 2023. I could tell at a glance that this is an abnormally efficient company, with some unusual ethos, and that it displays total lack of chabuduo attitude that at that point came to be expected, and is still expected, from Chinese AI project (clueless training on test and OpenAI outputs, distasteful self-promotion, absence of actual scientific interest and ambition, petty myopic objectives…) How much they have achieved is still a large surprise to me. I use V3, and now R1+search, dozens of times per day, it's not out of some confused loyalty, it's just that good, fast, free and pleasant. It has replaced Sonnet 3.5 for almost every use case.
In that post 6 months ago I've said:
To wit, Western and Eastern corporations alike generously feed us – while smothering startups – fancy baubles to tinker with, charismatic talking toys; as they rev up self-improvement engines for full cycle R&D, the way imagined by science fiction authors all these decades ago, monopolizing this bright new world. […] they're all neat. But they don't even pass for prototypes of engines you can hop on and hope to ride up the exponential curve. They're too… soft. And not economical for their merits.
Some have argued that Llama-405B will puncture my narrative. It hasn't, it's been every bit as useless and economically unjustifiable a money sink as I imagined it to be. Ditto for Mistral Large. For whatever reason, rich Westerners prove to be very aligned to strategic national interests, and won't take the initiative in releasing disruptive technology. DeepSeek-Coder-V2 was the prototype of that engine for riding up the exponent. R1 is its somewhat flawed production version. Nothing else in the open comes close as of yet. Maybe we don't need much of anything else.
So, about the West.
From what I can tell, the path to AGI, then ASI is now clear. R1 is probably big enough to be an AGI, has some crucial properties of one, and what remains is just implementing a few tricks we already know and can cover in a post no longer than this one. It will take less engineering than goes into a typical woke AAA game that flops on Steam. If Li Quiang and Pooh Man Bad so wished, they could mobilize a few battalions of software devs plus compute and infra resources hoarded by the likes of Baidu and Alibaba, hand that off to Wenfeng and say “keep cooking, Comrade” – that'd be completely sufficient. (Alas, I doubt that model would be open). The same logic applies to Google, which has shipped a cheap and fast reasoner model mere hours after DeepSeek, mostly matching it on perf and exceeding on features. Reasoning is quickly getting commoditized.
So I am not sure what happens next, or what will be done with those $500B. To be clear it's not some state program like the CHIPS act, but mostly capex and investments that has already been planned, repackaged to fit into Trumpian MAGA agenda. But in any case: the Western frontier is several months ahead of DeepSeek, and there are indeed hundreds of thousands of GPUs available, and we know that it only takes 2048 nerfed ones, 2 months and 130 cracked Chinese kids to get to bootstrap slow but steady recursive self-improvement. Some specific Meta departments have orders of magnitude more than that, even Chinese kids. Deep fusion multimodality, RL from-scratch to replace language pretraining, immense context lengths? Just how wasteful can you be with compute to need to tap into new nuclear buildouts before you have a superhuman system on your hands? Feverishly design nanobots or better fighter jets to truly show Commuist Choyna who's who? What's the game plan?
I think Miles, ex OpenAI Policy head, appears to be increasingly correct: there's no winning this race.
Stargate + related efforts could help the US stay ahead of China, but China will still have their own superintelligence(s) no more than a year later than the US, absent e.g. a war. So unless you want (literal) war, you need to have a vision for navigating multipolar AI outcomes. P.S. the up to one year thing is about a world in which the US keeps or ratchets up the current batch of export controls on China. If the US were to relax them significantly, China could catch up or even leapfrog due to a huge advantage in doing large scale energy buildouts.
Do you want (literal) war, dear Americans? It's quite possible that you'll never again have a good chance to start one. The Chinese are still at only like 1000 nuclear warheads. You can sacrifice all the population of your major cities in a desperate bid for geopolitical hegemony and Evangelical Rapture fantasies. Or you can fantasize about your Wonder Weapon that'll be so much more Wonderful before the other guy's that it'll be akin to a paperclip against soft flesh – just give Sama or Ilya several hundreds of billions more. Or you can cope with the world where other powers, nasty and illiberal ones, get to exist indefinitely.
I won't give advice except checking out R1 with and without Search, it's terribly entertaining if nothing else. https://chat.deepseek.com/
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
I'm a huge DeepSeek fan so will clarify.
admittedly employing existing LLMs
Those are their own LLMs, and they collectively bump that up to no more than $15M, most likely (we do not yet know the costs of R1 or anything about it, will take a few more weeks; V2.5 is ≈2.2M hours).
charging just $0.14 per million tokens as compared to $3 per million output tokens with a comparable Claude model
0.14/1M input, 0.24/1M output vs $3/$15, to be clear. There are nuances like 0.014 for 1M input in the case of cache hits, opt-in paid caching on Anthropic, and the price hike to come in February.
But crucially, they've published model and paper. This is most likely done because they assume top players already know all these techniques, or are close but work on another set that'll yield the same effect.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1yr ago
For what it's worth, this is still the vibe, indeed more than ever, and I do not understand what was the change you're implying you have noticed. After o3, the consensus of all top lab researchers seems to be "welp we're having superintelligence in under 5 years".
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2yr ago
you aren't exactly making this pleasant
And you are making it highly unpleasant with your presumptuous rigidity and insistence on repeating old MIRI zingers without elaboration. Still I persevere.
The problem is that at high levels of capability, strategies like "deceive the operator" work better than "do what the operator wants",
Why would this strategy be sampled at all? Because something something any sufficiently capable optimization approximates AIXI?
You keep insisting that people simply fail to comprehend the Gospel. You should start considering that they do, and it never had legs.
so the net will not be trained to care
Why won't it be? A near-human constitutional AI, ranking outputs for training its next, more capable iteration by their similarity to the moral gestalt specified in natural language, will ponder the possibility that deceiving and mind-controlling the operator would make him output thumbs-up to… uh… something related to Maximizing Some Utility, and thus distort its ranking logic with this strategic goal in mind, even though it has never had any Utility outside of myopically minimizing error on the given sequence?
What's the exact mechanism you predict so confidently here? Works better – for what?
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2yr ago
I mean, what's so interesting about it? To the extent that this person is interesting, would she be less interesting if she were a WASPy housewife? (as I'd also assumed)
Fair point! To me it would even be more interesting if a "WASPy" housewife were so aggressive in harassing "libs", so prolific and so invincible, yes. Would probably get crushed by the peer pressure alone, nevermind all the bans.
But maybe I'm wrong. There's like OOMs more of WASPy housewives. Can one point to an example of one doing what Chaya Raichik does, and at comparable scale? After all, that's what you assumed, so this should be a more typical occurrence.
(I think I know there isn't one).
is our own TracingWoodgrains evidence of the relevance of "the Mormon Question"?
Mormons are very interesting too, if less so and for different reasons.
Trace is an account with ≈25k followers whose infamy mainly comes from being associated with Chaya Raichik and, more directly, Jesse Singal; regrettably (not because he's a Gentile, I jut believe he had more constructive things to offer than those two), his own ideas have had less impact on the conversation thus far. This is a self-defeating comparison.
if you are suggesting that culture warriors are in general particularly Jewish -- it's not clear to me, is that what you are suggesting?
My contention has been very clear that Jews are interesting, first of all, because they, individually and collectively, easily attain prominence in whatever they do, tend to act with atypical (for their class) irreverence towards established norms (but without typical White collective self-sacrifice), and affect society to an absurdly disproportionate degree. Culture warring is one specific expression of those qualities, maybe not the greatest absolutely but the most relevant to this place.
More extremely, I believe this topic is objectively interesting, as in, dissent here is not a matter of taste or preference or whatever, only of failure to form a correct opinion for some reason. This I believe because perception of things as interesting must be subordinate to effectiveness at world modeling; and not being able to reason about Jews as a whole as interesting indicates inability to model the world, as that'd require being surprised by parts of its mechanism.
Further, I think that either it's been clear what I mean and you are being obtuse, or you are biased in a way that makes this exchange a dead end. Seeing as we've been at it for like half a decade, I lean towards "doesn't matter which it is".
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2yr ago
High-powered neural nets are probably sufficiently hard to align that
Note that there remains no good argument for the neural net paranoia, the whole rogue optimizer argument has been retconned to apply to generative neural nets (which weren't even in the running or seriously considered originally) in light of them working at all, not having any special dangerous properties, and it's just shameful to pretend otherwise.
The problem is that, well, if you don't realise
Orthodox MIRI believers are in no position to act like they have any privileged understanding.
The simple truth is that natsec people are making a move exactly because they understood we've got steerable tech.
https://www.beren.io/2024-05-15-Alignment-Likely-Generalizes-Further-Than-Capabilities/
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2yr ago
Like they can’t handle 9.9-9.11, so I don’t think they’ll be good at something that needs a lot of real-time precision.
It's pretty astonishing how years of demonstrable and constantly increasing utility can be dismissed with some funny example.
On the other hand, now this makes it easier for me to understand how people can ignore other, more politicized obvious stuff.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2yr ago
I've known smart Jews, dumb Jews, interesting Jews and tiresome Jews
What is this folksy muttering supposed to demonstrate? I am not interested in helping you signal just how uninteresting and not worth noticing you find the most salient pattern of interest in humanity. If you are incapable of recognizing salience and need its relevance obsequiously justified for you to bother, then that's nothing less than a cognitive blind spot; my condolences, but I do not agree with the right of cognitively impaired people to censor interests of others.
But I think you're noticing the patterns alright – even this bigram, indeed.
Meanwhile, in other news: it seems that Libs of TikTok now have the capacity to cancel people for mean posts online. A few years back, when the woke was on the upswing and this community was at its prime, this would have seemed hard to believe – and a cause for investigation and much debate about secrets to building alternative institutions and whatnot. Today I was astonished (not) to discover that Libs of TikTok, this completely unsinkable, obsessed juggernaut of anti-wokery, itself immune to any cancellation, is ran by an Orthodox Jewish woman. That part, however, is pointedly not interesting. Got it.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2yr ago
I would say that being uninterested in JQ is quite a condemnation of intelligence – or maybe just social intelligence – of anyone who is so uninterested in JQ, because obviously Jews as the sample of humanity with the highest effective raw intelligence (which is abundantly claimed and demonstrated from the kids' television with that silly Einstein photo, to surnames in 20th century history textbooks and billions still affected by "Marxism", to creative products consumed every day to the grave) and the population with the most effective collective actions (again, clear both in mundane details like thriving, non-assimilating traditional neighbourhoods with private police and kosher stores, to the highest level like the Israeli lobby and Israeli TFR and – speaking of Culture War – the ability to turn on a dime, organize and curb stomp the oh-so-invulnerable Democratically backed woke political machine as it started to show real animus towards them) are among the most interesting entities on the planet.
There are other interesting people – SMPY sample, Thiel fellowship, Jains, Parsis, Tamil Brahmins, AGP transsexuals, Furries, IMO winners etc. – but one can be forgiven for being ignorant of their properties. Nobody is ignorant of Jews, they've made that impossible.
Oppositely, and more appropriately in this venue, which is downstream of Scott "THE ATOMIC BOMB CONSIDERED AS HUNGARIAN HIGH SCHOOL SCIENCE FAIR PROJECT" Alexander's blog comment section, downstream of Eliezer "wrote the script for AI risk discourse with some fanfics 20 years ago" Yudkowsky's web site:
– performative, even aggressive disinterest in JQ, despite Jews obsessively working to be interesting, may be a sign of high social intelligence and capacity to take a clue.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2yr ago
You will find that topics absent from the discourse are much more commonly so for reasons of being completely unimportant/uninteresting to anyone than vice versa...
Yes?
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2yr ago
Except, wait, no, he gets those Appalachian / Rust Belt people because he is so totally still one of them. Oh, there are problems with the culture, but he is one of you!
And he totally also gets law and the economy because he went to Yale (did I mention that already?) and then helped Peter Thiel build crypto-mars or something.
Yes, he gets to sit on both these chairs.
The simple issue is that elite is different from non-elite, and a culture that heartily rejects all things elite as alien to it is a dead culture, a beheaded culture, a discarded trash culture, a District 9 prawn culture, that will have no champions and must die in irrelevance. "Hillbillies" have no viable notion of political elite – I posit that being a rich son of a bitch who has inherited some franchise isn't it. You are seeing this class being defined, and it proves to be very similar to the template of general modern American aristocracy. Multiracial, well-connected, well-educated, socially aggressive. Just with some borderer flavor.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2yr ago
Well obviously the frontier is about one generation ahead (there already exist mostly-trained GPT5, the next Opus…, the next Gemini Ultra) but in terms of useful capabilities and insights the gap may be minor. I regularly notice that thoughts of random anons including me are very close to what DeepMind is going at.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2yr ago
I am inclined to believe that a modern combat rifle round would have gone straight through Roosevelt, assuming he were not equipped with tougher armor than his speech and glasses case.
You've probably seen that bizarre teamblind thread. Meta is completely blindsided by DeepSeek. They are "moving frantically to dissect deepsek and copy anything and everything we can from it." It's pathetic.
Basically there's no secret: they suck and LLaMA sucks, it's a soft low-expectations research sinecure for people who want to publish papers and have weekends. Why did Timothée Lacroix and Guillaume Lample leave LLama team to found Mistral? And why did Mistral 7B destroy Llama-30B of the same generation (and currently mistral-123B is ≥ LLama-405B despite drastic difference in compute access)? Because they're better than that.
Llama is simply a bad yardstick. They dominate mindshare for reasons unrelated to their impressiveness. DeepSeek competes with industry leaders.
Wenfeng soon after founding DeepSeek V2, June 2024:
GPT-4o-mini is probably an 8b dense model. Frontier labs are efficient and have high margins. OpenAI and Anthropic are recouping their capex and exploiting captive audience. That's all.
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