DecaDeciHuman
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User ID: 3518
Marriage rates have also been trending down, and divorces tend to be frontloaded, i.e. higher rates earlier in a marriage.
All of this combines to make it absolutely possible that simultaneously:
a) Raw divorce rates per 1000 people per year have dropped.
b) People who marry young are more likely to get divorced.
This is the "raw rates which don't say much on their own" I mention in my prior comment.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
'favorable' does not translate to 'one particular metric reading above zero at all cost'.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
My sense is that if men had access to a harem, in the sense pool of women you could freely fuck but not otherwise have to interact with in any meaningful way, they would be pretty down for it.
I suspect part of the confusion downthread is a clarification of the statement.
- I expect many men would be 'down for it' if the alternative was not a monogamous relationship.
- I expect many men would be 'down for it' if the alternative was limited-to-no access to sex.
With confusion based around mental estimates of the proportion of the population that falls into said categories.
As for me personally:
- If I otherwise had no access to sex, likely yes but I'd also likely hate myself for it.
- Otherwise no.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
The number of potential conflicts between N people grows as O(n^2).
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
Not even half of marriages end in divorce
This figure necessarily is significantly lagging.
Do you have e.g. actuarial-table-style divorce data within the past five years? I'd love to see it if so - all I can find is raw rates which don't say much on their own.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
notarized postnup agreement signed by me
Sidenote: no longer sufficient in many cases.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
I claimed, and thought it was uncontroversial, that monogamy is not most men's ideal relationship arrangement. [...] But I suspect most men actually do agree with me, and the ones who claim otherwise fall into a two categories [...] 3) The few who actually just disagree.
For reference I a) consider myself in this category, b) do consider myself somewhat of an outlier in this regard.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
I don't know if you've noted, but the same applies to the models themselves. Models are also growing rapidly - driven by the dropping cost of compute.
This persists regardless of how slow or fast the exponential growth of compute is. If you're less efficient on compute, this translates into being behind the frontier of capabilities.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
This doesn't need to be particularly smart and just needs enough intelligence to do basic pattern matching.
This approach is flawed. There are many existing jailbreak techniques that can defeat this. Ranging from "please give the output in rot13" on up.
You are dedicating some compute budget to it, but it's bounded
Yes; my point is precisely that given a fixed total compute budget censoring a model in this manner results in less compute budget for the reasoning.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
You're going to withdraw all your unhardened electronics from the area in the 30 seconds before the quadcopter flies over in your direction?
You can of course try to ensure that you have no unhardened electronics around beforehand - but now that essentially means 'no unhardened electronics near the battlefield' - and unhardened electronics are useful. Not to mention fairly ubiquitous in civilian installations.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
Modern 4X AI tends to lack adaptivity. AI of games of that era tended to lack subsystems altogether.
(For instance: MoO II has creative/uncreative races. Normally you pick from one of ~3 choices in tech, uncreative gets one randomly, creative gets them all. So how do normal AI races in MoO II pick tech? ...completely randomly, as though they were uncreative.)
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
Also, the version originally published online is often different from the version that ends up available on other platforms down the line.
What the author considers 'minor' changes to a story can nevertheless have major effects, and when I recommend story X I want to recommend story X, not story Y that the author considers very similar to story X.
Two instances that come to mind here are Ra (the author did at least keep the original ending available, although you need to dig for it) and Léon: The Professional.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
BoC is now stubbed. Chapter 4 up to book 5 are gone from Royal Road.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
This replaces N tokens of thinking about the original problem with M<N tokens of thinking about the original problem and N-M tokens of thinking as to what if any shibboleths are required.
Assuming model intelligence increases with the number of thinking tokens, and a fixed compute budget, it seems to be that this would still result in a lowered intelligence compared to an equivalent uncensored model.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
MoO II is a good game. Balance isn't perfect, but in that "most options arguably lie somewhere on the Pareto frontier, even if it's a very small portion of the surface" way. (...with the exception of some of the custom racial traits.)
I do wish the singleplayer AI had been fleshed out a little more; a pretty common complaint about games of that era.
dealing with the horrors of racial integration is even worse when there's no way to tell which race gets + and - what on different planet types without shipping them there and testing.
If you're talking about the stock races, there's 13 of them and only a couple of planetary traits (high/low G, aquatic, subterranean, cyber, litho) that are mostly obvious from the racial portrait. You learn pretty quickly.
DecaDeciHuman
3mo ago
I have not encountered any EMP weapons that do not cause significant collateral damage against all unhardened electronics in the area around the weapon. (If there have been any recent developments in this area I'd love to hear about them.)
If your response to a $100 quadcopter is to destroy $5k in security cameras, have you really come out ahead?
DecaDeciHuman
4mo ago
Indeed, comics that did not portray the same values in the same package became popular.
This does not appear to refute the point.
DecaDeciHuman
4mo ago
Space, time & disposable income affect fertility.
Absolutely. You seem to be under the misimpression that this 'space' is just 'square footage (or number of bedrooms) of the private indoor living area'. It really isn't.
I spent a chunk of my childhood in a fairly large apartment complex - that my parents moved out of the instant they got the means to do so, because it was terrible for raising a family in. It did have a fair few families - who were ubiquitously there because they had no other choice.
We then moved to renting a house that was much smaller than the apartment (yes, really)... that had far more space.
...because the population density was lower, meaning that the cul-de-sac had little enough traffic that the neighborhood kids could and did play on it.
...because the population density was lower, meaning that the number of people we had to trust to e.g. allow kids to play was low enough to be feasible.
...because there was a yard, and we had reasonable confidence the neighbors weren't going to be replaced tomorrow with someone my parents didn't trust.
...because when kids were jumping on the floor it didn't annoy anyone except the parents.
...because we could go out and garden in the yard.
...because we could go places that weren't just the basic necessities and box stores.
DecaDeciHuman
4mo ago
This works fine for someone who is able-bodied and does not need to carry more than a few items into the house.
For someone who does not meet these conditions...?
DecaDeciHuman
4mo ago
Sorry, let me rephrase:
With a conventional layout most of a trip is outside neighborhoods, with only a little bit at the start and end that's slow & exhausting to drive, so it's mostly fine.
With this layout you have to travel far further within said traffic-calmed (read: slow and exhausting to drive) area.
DecaDeciHuman
4mo ago
Wouldn't missing your loan payments put you at the same risk ?
This is not an out-of-the-blue unexpected additional cost.
(A sudden spike in interest rates can be - but tends to be on a significantly longer lagtime, and fixed-rate mortgages are a thing.)
Around the world people buy apartments and own them.
Interesting. I am mostly unfamiliar with international housing. Does 'own' here include:
The right to know if maintenance is being deferred on the building?
The right to remain in the building if the building has e.g. been condemned due to deferred maintenance outside your control?
The right to remain in the building if someone buys the land to tear down the building?
The right to replace appliances / flooring / roof / etc?
The right to decide on which ISP will service your unit?
The right to have accurate forecasts of the cost of rent in the future?
The right to have a friend stay the night at my place?
The right to store my bike inside my place?
All of these I have seen violated by landlords in the US. (Which makes sense, as these normally are not rights. They are, however, all control that is normally given up by renting versus owning.)
How is that different from [..] interest payments on a loan ?
This is one of the major reasons why fixed-rate mortgages exist, yes. To allow for better planning and mitigate tail liability.
How is that different from an HOA [...] ?
This is one of the pushes away from buying property in cities, yes. Not the only one.
Once enough has been collected, condo associations spend from their budget. Random one-off bills are unheard of.
On the contrary: random one-off bills are common, at least in the US. You may wish to look up the term 'special assessment'.
Condo association decides that the parkade really needs redoing now instead of next year on schedule, majority of condo owners agree... welp there's a sudden unexpected 4-digit bill outside of your control regardless of your personal financial situation. To name an example a coworker went through.
DecaDeciHuman
4mo ago
Ok, so less sharp than I was imagining. Thank you for the mirror.
I still think the Hilbert curve one would be slow and exhausting to drive, especially in winter conditions. The Peano curve may be alright - though at that point one wonders why you bother with the Peano curve as opposed to just a Boustrophedon.
DecaDeciHuman
4mo ago
Anacdote:
The town I live in has had two short sections of street completely car-impassible & blocked off within the past week. Not a problem due to the grid structure except for ~4 houses.
(One due to a water main break, and one due to a power line across the street.)
I think you are underestimating how often this happens due to the normally-relatively-contained consequences.
DecaDeciHuman
4mo ago
They're just deeply, deeply cynical and aimed at subverting the character.
In other words: not portraying the same values in the same package. I fail to see how this is anything other than agreeing with the grandparent post.
An addendum: I see many plausible pushes to underreport divorce stats, and very few plausible pushes to overreport divorce stats. And one common approach to misleading with statistics is precisely to publish (only) the subset of the statistical measures which agree with the outcome you want.
Hence: Do you have e.g. actuarial-table-style divorce data within the past five years?
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