HighResolutionSleep
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User ID: 172
HighResolutionSleep
6d ago
It's not hard to make reactors, the US has the technical chops to fit a 300 MW PWR reactor on a submarine along with sonar, torpedoes, stealth all for a total cost of $2 Billion.
Maybe the solution is the for US to commission giant submarines with gigawatt reactors on them, where they can tap into underwater transmission cables that just barely reach out into international waters.
Wouldn't be the dumbest thing we've ever done to get around crippling regulations. Maybe.
HighResolutionSleep
16d ago
Witnessed is a little important, here
I think the glass half full perspective is more accurate here. Sure, it wasn't detected at the earliest possible time—the second it was committed—but it was only in the most bleeding edge releases of a select few base distributions for a few weeks before it got sniffed out. For such a sophisticated attack, that's lightning fast. Stuxnet took about five years and infected around a hundred thousand machines before it was uncovered. Sure, it's possible that this sample size of one is unrepresentative of the whole distribution of this event repeated a thousand times, but that's less likely and strikes me as somewhat catastrophizing. As someone noted below, we don't know that this wasn't an attack from an AGI sitting in OpenAI's basement plotting to kill us all as we speak.
Visible-source seems to have helped track down the whole story
How would he have tracked down the backdoor without the repo? It seems to me that without it all he would have is some CPU benchmarks and some valgrind errors. What would he have done with that other than submit a bug report to the company that actually had sources, which could be ignored or "fixed" at their discretion?
HighResolutionSleep
16d ago
Security is hard.
I like to think that this will get better as time goes on. If you think about it, humans have only really been writing software at an industrial scale for two, maybe three decades now. We're not good at it yet.
Every single one of us is running a kernel that was written in the 90s using paradigms formed in the 80s with a computer language that was invented in the 70s.
So little about how we do computing has even caught up to modern thinking. I don't know if Rust specifically is the future, but something like it is.
HighResolutionSleep
16d ago
The Many Eyes theory of software development worked. This was an incredibly subtle attack that few developers would have been able to catch, by an adversary willing to put years into developing trust and sneaking exploit in piecemeal.
I've watched a lot of doomerist takes on this one claiming that this proves many-eyes doesn't work, but I think it proves just the opposite. This was perhaps the most sophisticated attack on an open source repo ever witnessed, waged against an extremely vulnerable target, and even then it didn't come even close to broad penetration before it was stopped. Despite being obvious it bears laboring that it wouldn't have been possible for our Hero Without a Cape to uncover it if he wasn't able to access the sources.
If I had to guess, I would suppose that glowing agencies the world round are taking note of what's happened here and lowering their expectations of what's possible to accomplish within the open source world. Introducing subtle bugs and hoping they don't get fixed may be as ambitious as one can get.
That being said, I'm not sure that the doomerism is bad. The tendency to overreact may very well serve to make open source more anti-fragile. Absolutely everyone in this space is now thinking about how to make attacks like this more difficult at every step.
HighResolutionSleep
19d ago
On the positive side, it makes single people much more likely to find someone!
I've always wondered if it would make a funny reality TV show to take some incels and femcels and make them date and cohabitate. I think witnessing the children to come out of such relationships would be even funnier!
HighResolutionSleep
22d ago
What more would you have done? Ban the people that upvoted it?
I suspect that this has been almost possible since about 2022, but now specifically with a 100k token context length, it's now completely possible if not practical.
With a little effort, I'd reckon you could fit most of the gist of someone's personality, at least the part of it they showed you, in about 50k tokens. Then you'd have about 40k give or take to have a small conversation about how their day has been.
Perhaps a few have done something similar with fine tuning, but now any old Joe could probably do it for $20/mo.
The future may very well be now.
EDIT: Some back-of-the-envelope quick math:
Based on what I've seen from how machine learning tokenizers work, most words take up about 2-3 tokens. That means that 50k tokens might be about 20k words, which is I guess is about 1000 sentences. Given that "write this in the style of that" has been something that generative models have been frighteningly good at for years, I imagine that would be well enough data to effect a very convincing pantomime.
Then you could have a fully-contextualized and interactive conversation spanning about a small novella. I don't think this is something you could do with previous models, particularly with their relatively tiny context windows.
It's interesting to think that there may very well be an entirely novel form of gratuitous self-harm at my fingertips that categorically did not exist mere months ago.
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
I think one thing about inflation that I don't see people factoring in is that the wage growth that is usually a part of it usually lags behind. But another part is that it usually doesn't just happen for free. It doesn't happen that your boss one day up and decides to give you a 10% raise unprompted—especially if you are highly replaceable. So the everyman experiences inflation in a much more tactile way. It isn't the case that the growth of their savings slows as the appreciation of their assets quickens and it all kind of vaguely evens out with plenty of liquid lubricant to ease the whole thing, like it does for someone like me.
To the guy working retail, inflation is that months-long period of time where everything gets prohibitively expensive and they either have to fight their boss for a sizeable raise they probably won't get and then go looking for a better job where at best they have to spend months of extra effort (of which they likely do not have in large supply) relearning a new job and settling into new routines only to at best vaguely catch up to where they were before.
This, to put it simply, sucks—and it's likely the case based on the bad vibes that this adjustment period isn't over. It also may very well follow a resentment period. I don't know where stuff like this would show up in highly coarse macroeconomic numbers, and my guess is that it probably doesn't.
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
I can't believe I've wondered about this literal exact same scenario.
The conclusion I've come to is that I would absolutely want to be knife guy, because baseball bat guy has only one good swing and if it doesn't connect or doesn't hit hard enough, I'm on top of him and his weapon is now worthless.
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
sitting here with the horrifying realization that between its natively predictive-generative nature and massively expanded context window if i really wanted to and didn't care i could probably feed some logs into claude-3 and talk to her again
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
There's been a fair amount of discourse in lefty spaces over the last 2-4 years about how feminist/progressive ideology is good at telling men what things to stop doing but bad at teaching boys what they should do instead, leaving a lot of young men who want to be progressive without a reliable script to follow.
There's never been a shortage of demands on men from any direction.
The first gender ideology that finds a way to offer men not just a list of demands, but attach an actual stake in their society to it will win young men.
Modern right-wingers don't do this either. You can see this most clearly whenever someone criticizes the current marriage regime. The insistence is that sure it has problems, but you need to just stop asking questions and do it anyway. This often doesn't even come with a promise that it will ever get better. The fact it's a bad deal doesn't matter, as a man you don't have a stake in the family unit. You're there to serve it, that's it. Three P's: protection, provision, procreation. Stake ain't a P-word.
I think part of the reason JBP became so popular is that it kinda sounded like he was proposing a vision of masculinity that offered some kind of stake. This turned out to be wrong, but some men understandably but erroneously assumed that all of this talk of bearing the load would come with a stake attached. It didn't.
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
What's stopping you from doing that now?
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
Does it count as voluntary as long as you're allowed to leave the club and its premises at any time for any reason?
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
It seems you have rediscovered the ancient wisdom that the reward for hard work is more work. The office doesn't work based on objective principles (like any org will insist to its grave), it works on the squeaky wheel getting the grease—and the strongest links getting the heaviest loads. Don't get me wrong: being a star performer can have its benefits in the right orgs with the right incentives—but if they aren't there (which seems to be the case as evidenced by your frustration), there's absolutely nothing wrong about withholding that performance.
I imagine that at some point, you (probably implicitly) volunteered yourself to be Bob's fixer. Now that you've shown you can do it, it's expected. It's hard to unwind that expectation without drawing attention. You can't just up and stop fixing Bob's mistakes, but you can steadily fix them less and less. Your cover is that maybe his fuckups are getting worse and worse, or perhaps your own responsibilities are growing and you have less and less effort to offer for it. There are likely a dozen more angles of attack for someone who knows your situation as intimately as you do.
Don't explicitly offer these things as explanations, but try to weave them implicitly in the excuses that you offer for why you couldn't fix Bob's mistake in a timely manner that avoids pain for his higher ups. Leverage plausible deniability to the maximum extent. Feel out how much pain you can expose Bob's superiors to using which narratives as cover and lean in to the ones that work.
Good luck.
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
I'm not sure I find "fault" in any of them
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
So what's the internal way of saying this?
"I suffer this discrimination because I cannot rally enough political support from people like me to stop it."?
"I suffer this discrimination because I can't muster an army capable of conquering the United States."?
"I suffer this discrimination because I won't strap a bomb to my chest a blow up some government functionaries."?
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
But if you embrace victimhood as part of your identity, you're dooming yourself.
Not if this leads to political action. See: feminism. The problem is men as a class have trouble getting to that part.
HighResolutionSleep
1mo ago
"I suffer this discrimination because people like me are unwilling to exert political influence in sufficient number to stop it."
Is this internal or external locus of control?
HighResolutionSleep
3mo ago
Let's compare this to the list of statements offered in the comment that suggest women could play a role in the conditions that lead to divorce:
HighResolutionSleep
3mo ago
My comment doesn't blame men for the breakdown of marriages.
The comment in question:
In the same way, the person that initiates the divorce isn't necessarily the person that ended the marriage.
I speculate that is more likely for men to "quiet quit" on a marriage, in a way that is less possible/likely for a woman.
The woman might be the one who files the divorce papers, but in a lot of cases the man checked out a long time ago and has been, sometimes willfully sometimes passive-aggressively, baiting her into filing.
A man will stop doing anything around the house when he checks out of his marriage. Men typically do fewer chores around the house to start with, and have a greater tolerance for mess/disorder/eating trash.
Often this extends to kids: he's not scheduling doctors appointments, buying them clothes, keeping track of their schooling.
I could also just do another common thing men do and just...stop coming home after work.
This is before we get into things like Exit Affairs, when an extramarital relationship is just a tripwire to make her file, or physical abuse.
So the dynamic is often that a man stops doing anything around the house, stops substantively being a husband, and then a wife files. So the decision these women are making when filing isn't "Happily Married Woman vs. Divorced Woman" it's "Abandoned, but legally married woman with no legal tools to control her spouse's use of marital assets, still expecting divorce vs. Divorced woman, with legal tools to control spouse's disposal of marital assets."
HighResolutionSleep
5mo ago
Yes, there are a thousand differences between the two novels—but let's not be silly here. Porn isn't a feature you take or leave with a piece of media. It's either primarily what you want or you don't consume the material. It's not a matter of statistical chance that the most popular piece of women's media ever is such a hardcore piece of smut.
There is no Playboy for women.
Sure, and there's no Fifty Shades for men. Girl lust and boy lust don't look exactly the same but there's no reason to think that one is inherently more conducive to monogamy than the other.
Look, I’m not claiming women are “purer” or uninterested in sex.
Okay, so what's your point in objecting to anything I said? Well that's obvious: because you do disagree that women are no more pure in their sexual intent. You just spent the previous paragraph praising the virtues of women's sexual gaze, how it's all about relationships and all that. We're talking about non-monogamy and its consequences for the human race. You posted about how specifically men's sexual vices are destroying our societies—the vice of sexual liberalism and the men who pushed it for their own gain: the gain of having less attached sex with women. The gain that men got at the expense of women. Men's ill-gotten gain against women.
Do you think I'm stupid?
I believe that as much as I believe that guys watch PornHub for the plot.
The key thing to observe here is that Twilight, the version without the hot sex, was outsold by Fifty Shades, the version with the hot sex.
Are you going to tell me that the romance was that much better?
HighResolutionSleep
5mo ago
I've seen them agree that it's bad, I haven't yet seen them agree that watching porn is like being sexually promiscuous.
HighResolutionSleep
5mo ago
They weren't married before or after all the fucking they did in the first novel, which is the one that sold so well.
That's strange. How did that happen?
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