Hyperion
10mo ago
You can get better odds on a black jack table if you want to gamble. I thought it was certain that the Democrats would dump Biden a week ago; but, he, somehow, is hanging on. That's why the bet is so even. Most of the time, if you think you've found a mark, you are the mark.
Hyperion
10mo ago
I miss when our elites would just slam an axe into each other's skulls and then payed the weregild afterwards. Made things easier for the masses they ruled over.
Hyperion
10mo ago
What's the party line today from your type, that the gas chambers weren't real, or that they were somehow exaggerated?
Hyperion
10mo ago
I think it might be more a long the lines of communists declaring social democrat parties social fascists. It's hard to place DeBoer, he just seems to lash out at everyone and seems like a rather awful person to be around, even when he isn't going through a manic episode.
Hyperion
10mo ago
Impeachment is a political question, not a legal question. That is why it's handled by congress. The Supreme Court has already ruled on this. Congress is so sole authority that decides questions of impeachment. No judge can overrule them.
Hyperion
10mo ago
The guy you are arguing with is a literal Nazi who wants to convince moderate 'race realists' that they are really Nazis too. It's why he plays these weird definitional games that mirror those of progressive activists.
Hyperion
10mo ago
Hanson once wrote that a woman cheating on a man is as bad as (or worse than) a man raping a woman provided he does it in a "gentle, silent" way.
No he said being cuckolded as in literally raising someone else's child as your own would be worse. That's worlds apart from an affair that leads to no children.
Hyperion
10mo ago
One thing I like about fantasy and science fiction and so forth is its utility as a lens upon our own world: it lets us consider what things would be like if something we believe is true were different.
A lot of people are unable to consume media in this way. If a piece of media says something is true in this fictional hypothetical that wildly diverges from out world, they are trying to say it is also true in our world. So, Starship Troopers a story about a united humanity fighting against literal bugs is really promoting racism and white supremacy in our world, despite it's protagonist being Filipino.
It's similar to people who argue against the hypothetical in thought experiments. They seem to believe worlds in which their current politics fail just can't exist and anyone who would think up such a world only does so to push evil beliefs in the here and now.
Hyperion
10mo ago
It's precisely because they benefited they can be enough of a fixture in the culture to make a fuss. The kids who got adopted can use the education and stability they got from it to make a fuss about how it robbed them of their culture. While those who got to experience the culture first hand probably just died of alcohol poisoning or are trying to forget they ever grew up on the rez.
Hyperion
10mo ago
Japanese tourists don't count as tourists obviously, tourist just means gaijin. For the rest they get excluded. I doubt a Japanese-American could get past a real Japanese person, even at a glance(ignoring that racially pure Japanese-Americans are almost non-existent).
Hyperion
11mo ago
The Nazi racial theories were more grounded in reality than what passes today.
You are eliding the fact that the Nazis thought that Balts and Slavs weren't really Aryan, despite them being more CWC by ancestry than any German. Also that they were pale, blond, blue eyed people, when they were overwhelmingly far more swarthy. Nazi racial theories made no sense and they used them to justify killing millions of people most of which were fellow Aryans.
This is a common tactic of yours, to elide the terrible parts of Nazi ideology and equivocate it with the worst ultranationalist sentiments of other peoples.
Hyperion
11mo ago
But the Corded Ware culture, the common ancestor to all European peoples and languages, did originate from that part of Europe.
That's not true. The Greeks and Albanians are from late-Yamnaya/Catacomb culture people, the Basque still exist and there are Uralic and Turkish people as well.
Not to mention how much of the ancestry of these groups isn't from the Yamnaya or Corded-Ware culture people. Or how much of a mongrel race these Indo-Europeans groups were in the first place.
You just pick and choose what facts you want to fit your narrative.
Hyperion
11mo ago
I'm not saying the current models do original meaningful reasoning. If they could the whole world would be turned upside down and we wouldn't be debating if they could.
I think GPT-20 will be able to do that kind of thing in 50 years, either because all we need is scaling; or, because, we will make some new advance in the underlying architecture.
My point is more that high schoolers don't do meaningful original reasoning either. Monkey see, Monkey do. Most human innovation is just random search that is copied by others.
The fact that this machine is dumb isn't surprising, almost all things are dumb, and most humans are. That it can do anything at all is an innovation that puts all the rest to shame.
It's like being mad the first organism that evolved a proto-neuron or proto-central nervous system can't add 2+2 correctly.
Hyperion
11mo ago
The idea that GPT-4 has smart-high-schooler levels of intelligence is silly.
And if you asked some 110 IQ high-schoolers this question, half would get it wrong. Half get the original question wrong or can't even supply an answer. There are plenty of examples of this even among very intelligent people. 75% of economics PhD students and professors got this simple question about opportunity costs wrong, because it was worded strangely. Despite the fact that it's formally an easy question to answer. It's easy to trick LLMs just like it's easy to trick people. Doesn't mean either are stupid.
Hyperion
11mo ago
Ireland is a very socially conservative place that still has a strong religious streak. Women in these kinds of societies are much more censorious of other women's sexuality. Men are also much more systemizing and willing to argue for the 'right' answer, even if it is socially undesirable.
Hyperion
11mo ago
I’ve always like the idea that public companies are like a report card for companies. Having to constantly convince people to own your stock makes companies perform better. How many people learn calculus because they opened a book versus they had a deadline to take a test? And then public markets do provide a means of changing management if the assets get cheap but the company isn’t making appropriate profits.
Sure, but having the owners and managers be the same people also greatly increases the incentives for the managers to do a good job. Private owners have much more information about the company and a much more direct way of effecting change. The private owners can always just sell the company if they think they can't do a good job of managing it or picking managers.
The main advantage publicly owned companies have isn't better management, it's just the ability to raise capital. Something that can matter a lot in capital intensive industries with only a few large companies.
Hyperion
11mo ago
She used a private email server to do government business a practice ubiquitous, but illegal, because it let's you sidestep FOIA requests. Look at the recent fury over Fauci doing the same. Hillary had the misfortune of having her sever hacked, unlike everyone else. But, the fortune of having all the emails deleted by a careless aide before they could be subpoenaed.
Hyperion
11mo ago
And does that follow for his discussion of distrust of the media, of Nature, of the institutions like the NIH? Does it follow for flippantly stating the CIA killed JFK and covered it up for sixty years? Sachs has been burned recently, and so I don't think he's changed his stripes but he's certainly informed by experiences in the last four years.
Reversed stupidity isn't intelligence. You can't just reverse the positions of your enemies and arrive at the truth.
His claim that their would be peace if Israel just acknowledged the Palestinian state is more than laughable. Hamas controls Gaza and is the mortal enemy of the PLO. They threw PLO members off the tops of buildings when they took control of Gaza. Acknowledging Palestinian statehood would do less than nothing to solve the current conflict. Hamas is going to fight to the death either way.
Sachs knows less about geopolitics than he does about economics, he's a laughing stock that gets trotted out for the public by credulous or ideologically motivated journalists like Tucker.
Hyperion
11mo ago
I don't get it is Sachs claiming he was first hand knowledge of this stuff or is he just talking his ass off like all of us here? It sounds like he is just talking his ass off like he has about every other geo-political event in his lifetime. You can always expect him to be against the USA and for whatever is popular among the far-left. So his support of Palestine and Russia is no more surprising than his support of China and Venezuela.
What's somewhat interesting is the fact that these far-left and far-right voices have converged on so much, but you also saw stuff like this in the run up to WW2.
Hyperion
11mo ago
Specifically, they are the descendants by the male line, because that's what it means to be a people.
That's just not true though. It was especially not true before agriculture and pastoralism, but even after that it isn't true. The Basque are more R1b then the other Iberians, but they are a separate people, because memes and genes are distinct. Scandinavians have very diverse y-chromosomes, but aren't any less a coherent people because of it. Most people's are of diverse lineages and some cultures are even matrilineal or bilineal. To say nothing of people's who just adopted an entirely new culture without much gene flow, like the Magyars or the hyphenated Americans you consider yourself above.
Hyperion
11mo ago
Oh! I think I heard that even as a child for cutting in line. But, not often. It might get corrected later in life and die out. Kids often misuse language and correct later, but sometimes the mistakes get adopted as the correct usage.
Hyperion
11mo ago
I'm about to give up on "cut" in the past tense,
What do you mean by this? I am genuinely confused, but I don't interact much with younger children.
Hyperion
11mo ago
Do people really process language in this way? It doesn't feel like that internally to me. All these phrasings are basically equivalent and I certainly am not consciously making a distinction between them.
I, also, always got mad when my friend's mom wouldn't give me a cookie if I asked, "Can I have a cookie." No I'm not still mad, why should you ask, or is it would you ask?
His admonishment of other NATO countries for underspending on defense was prophetic. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine they are doing it of their own accord and non-NATO countries around Russia are rushing to join. The media likes to make fun of Trump saying Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if he was president, but if Europe had built up it's armories back then, Russia would have thought twice about attacking and might have been defeated in the early stages of the war.
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