KulakRevolt
Writes at https://anarchonomicon.substack.com/
Writes weird Twitter Threads @FromKulak
Rides motorcycles... poorly.
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Winner of Motte Post of the Year 2019
User ID: 905
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
China has collapsing demographics, little naval power, and an economy that's still poor and not growing... as well as the worst geographic vulnerabilities to its see trade and an entire ring of enemies around it...
China becoming an equal power in a multipolar world is optimistic, them winning the 21st century is laughable.
What is the BAP quote... something like "Men of strength courage and will have always been outnumbered... so far its never been a problem"
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It seems to me The inevitable result of great replacement type stuff, especially if the inherent equality and interchangeability of people turns out to not be true... is the vast majority of whites coalescing into their own dominant political ethnic faction much like south Africa or Rhodesia... and its not as if the US or EU are going to sanction themselves into geostrategic failure (though it seems Germany is trying).
My concern is far less whites being replaced... there are two types of immigrant communities, those that economically integrate and do well (in part because of selection effects from hard immigration processes) whose daughters inevitably wind up mating into thethe middle class of the west, and whose disadvataged sons ussually wind up returning to the old country to marry/lord it over the locals.... Thus either becoming "White" culturally, genetically, and politically... or emigrating in turn...
An example of this is east Asians becoming the harshest critics of affirmative action.
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And then there are those who don't integrate and form a new crime prone underclass, usually the result of immigration policies that are too humanitarian, or enforcement not selecting for the highest quality of criminals...
It places where that happens and those groups are replacing the native populace... I could see the locals forming armed radical factions and potential ethnic cleansing or mass expulsions if the trends don't abate. (which is why mass population movements are so concerning, they dramatically increase the risks of the worse kinds of violence)
Think of how different politics are in 2022 from 2012... and imagine that extreme shift not just repeating twice between now and 2042, but shifting at an accelerating rate... Political change happens really damn fast as soon real problems are on the table. France went through a dozen systems of government in as many years in the 1790s, and politics still happened at the speed of a rider with a letter back then.
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Simply put not wanting to have kids because of the politics is foolish... the politics changes so quickly and violently throughout most of human history that by the time your kids are 18 nothing will resemble the current moment. Hell 9/11 hadn't happened when my parents had me, every western country was in a budget surplus, and Canada still looked like it wouldn't exist another decade
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
I didn't offer a definition of Biological determinism. You're just humourless.
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
So you'd surrender basic human freedom in the name of stopping degenerates from hurting eachother?
this ius the difference in attitude. In north America the thought is "yep those kinds of people are going to do that" finding some legal emasculation of the whole of society so that even the most bad faith degenerates can't hurt themselves is completely outside the scope of discussion.
Hell the trend in north america is more towards legalizing vastly more, and normalizing the ownership of larger weapons. Weed, psychedelics... you fry your brain its on you.
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
Ya its actually kinda surprizing the norms around nukes have stayed "No nukes ever" Vs. Nothing above a certain Yeild, no civillian targets...
a 1-5 kiloton over-pressure would be so bloody usefull for taking out reinforced bridges, bunkers, and airbases... Conventional explosives generally suck at airbases especially, they're so spread out and they're constantly moving the planes around so its impossible to really take out an air wing without a whole operation with lots of scouting
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
This is a huge effect.
Montreal and parts of ontario are near massive rapids, so no matter how cold it gets there's a constant churn of moisture entering the air.
I've almost fallen over shivering when the wind was right and it was -10 in Montreal, which would usually take -30 and heavy windchill in dry rural Ontario
(mind you very cold and dry conditions still messes up your skin vastly more... your core temperature might be find, but you get the equivalent of a major sunburn from just the wind)
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
Yes it 100% has the capacity to enroll 50,000-100,000 undergrads instead of 5'000... and this would have the bonus effect of destroying a lot of the cache and elite networking associated with it....If you got the entire ivy league to do that you'd have close to 2 million slots, which would probably have the added bonus of destroying the teir 3 and 4 schools that do nothing but churn out government employees (mind you might lead to dangerous centralization, but when everything about culture and research is determined by the Acreditation agencies and department of ED... does it even matter)
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
list Russia and China's geostrategic conflicts in asia... THere are basically none.
Russia's far east is largely irrelevant whereas it as strategic insecurities in central asia in the "Stans" and major geostrategic and economic Concerns in Europe.
China by contrast lives 100% in concern for its access to trade routes through the pacific and south China sea, and the US' effective strangle hold on them through the first Island chain. as well as the ease with which their trade could be strangled off in the indian ocean or the Strait of Malaca.
There is nothing 1/1000th as major a concern on the border between Manchuria and Siberia, or what... Mongolia?
There might be some aging Kremlin types worried that the yellow peril will extend Manchuria northward, or some weirdo in Beijing delusional enough to think it might be a good idea...
But their mutual existential geostrategic threats to any economic or political survival are so obvious and glaring that there's no chance in hell either can afford to lose the other as a partner.
Its wishcasting to imagine either will willing cast aside the only pottential ally that makes either remotely capable of standing up the american empire
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
ROK collapsed and almost started WW3, Israel scams the American taxpayer endlessly and wags the dog more than should be theoretically possible, Croats and Kosovars committed their own ethnic cleansing and had no real geostrategic value anyway, and as for Greece and South America: I said the US is very successful at CIA coups... empowering the locals to put an end to insurgencies and fighting groups vastly less so given the continued survival of FARC and Marxist insurgencies in the vein of Shining Path.
also Greek civil war doesn't count since it was still in the British field of influence and Suez hadn't marked the end of empire yet.
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
There would very quickly be that popular and senior political support if America started losing, 5000-10,000 souls went down in a single day on 1-2 Aircraft carriers, and it looked like the east pacific could entirely swing into China's sphere of orbit..
Which since China atleast plans to win a war if they're going to start one, is the kindof eventuality they need to plan for...
You know "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail"
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
Well there's been an observed trend that the most fanatical adherrents of any national ideology come from the perrifery of the Empire... Napoleon was a Corsican, Hitler a Austrian, Stalin a Georgian, Trotsky and Lenin both German-Jewish-Russian mixes, hell even the Duke of wellington was raised in Ireland
So its been widely theorized American Hitler will be a Canadian... and Australian Hitler a Kiwi
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
Any reason you left off the second part of that clause:
"when the rate of production is measured in years, and the rate of consumption measured in months"
WW2 no one was consuming materiel at rates vastly in excess of what even US production kicked out. The allies had to bomb german factories to get them falling into shortages, they weren't consuming 30% of global stock in the first 5 months of Barbarossa.
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
And here's the Axios story if you don't trust RT citations:
https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia
Reading comprehension is important.
I provided two sources with the exact same data
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
The US pursues "Strategic ambiguity".
They won't launch the minutemen missiles at chinese cities over taiwan, nor are they obliged to. But its very possible they'd use tactical nukes to take out China's artificial Islands in the south china sea, or disrupt Chinese staging bases.
China needs a deterent to that since they'd struggle to escalate in kind.
there's no such thing as "Soviet Poland", Poland (along with Czechoslovakia, etc.) was not a soviet republic, but a separate state. Authoritarian, not totalitarian.
First, LOL if you believe this as if the poles weren't 100% a conquered people and your administrative status mattered. Sure. And the East German stasi was ethically better than the pre-45 Stasi... absolutely a free republic.
Second FDR 100% deserved the gallows for destroying American freedom and bringing about the administrative state. Fascism in all but name. I reccommend reading Herbert Hoover's Hsitory of the second world war Freedom Betrayed
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Third, something big happened in Canada in response to the lockdowns, rebellions, blockades of the worlds busiest bridge, violent confrontations with the police, and occupation and encampment in -20 to -40... I neither confirm nor deny my involvement in any illegal activity. And BTW the truckers won. The government blinked, almost all restrictions were dropped across the board, and half the political spectrum of Canada is being purged of those who supported lockdowns.
Forth, English Canadians are a made up people. There is no cultural difference between us and the US. Its like Germany and Austria, but without even a significant history of cultural difference or conflict. Hell I've lived in apartments that looked into the US.
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Finally, I'm not some pro-Russia shill. You hate Russia? Good you probably should, as far as I can tell almost everyone in europe is 100% right to want almost everyone else in Europe dead. What I loath is the North American elite sending our money to support centuries old ethnic conflicts, treating violent authoritarian states as if they're some moral exemplars everyone over hear should admire, and risking an escalation to world war over a third world country and its conflict with its second world neighbor.
I want the US and Canada disentangled from Europe.
How would you feel if your government was sending billions of your dollars to prop up regimes in the South Pacific? How would you feel if you were edging closer to nuclear war over some bullshit conflict in West Africa? It does not concern us, we have no meaningful economic or geopolitical interest tied up in it, and there's no way the Ukrainian moral claims hold up to the slightest scrutiny compared to any other global conflict, especially on costs.
I don't really care whether Russia or Ukraine wins in the abstract, I care that my government is trying to get us further entangled in geopolitical conflicts that don't concern us and could end with nukes landing in our cities.
I encourage you to actually read Hobbes, not just assume the bumper sticker slogans can stand in for 60 chapter argument that is as intricate as a finely timed motor.
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He says subjects can only resist soveriegns in the narrow circumstance where the sovereign is extralegally aggressing against them... but then books 18-30 go on to define almost anything the founders would describe as a rights violation as a form of aggression which would warrant the subject's rebellion or disobedience...
He goes so far as laying out an intricate theory of Judicial review that's if anything more stringent than anything SCOTUS ever dreamed of.
This is why royalists and Absolutists denounced Leviathan in its day as a "Rebel's Catechism".
Hobbes conceives of rebellion as merely the state of war renewed, and that the actions of the sovereign, vastly moreso than the actions of the subject, are what bring these conditions about because the sovereign ceasing to protect or enable the ends for which the subject enters society makes it rational for the subject to rebel and create a new social order by carving one out himself with fire and sword.
I spent 3 years in courses with either Hobbes as a core text, or the sole text... I have drunk deep of that well.
Hobbes is the reason my libertarianism is so violent and absolutist. he lays out the logic of exactly what rights are necessary for a free people (as oppose to those directly living under relationships of sheer power and whom do not participate in the social contract ie. Slaves) to exist within a society, and the logic by which they can and logically must engage in violence if those conditions are not met.
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
Did you even read the axios piece? https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia
200-500 dead per day and 1000 tatal casualties per day in the donbass alone. Per the ukrainian negotiator working directly for Zelensky.
Sorry I don't know the Ukrainian term for their whitehouse so used Zelensky to stand in for the Office and Senior leadership. A normal linguistic convention for world leaders if you ever attributed anything to Biden or trump that came from Jen Psaki or Sean Spicer.
Sorry i was trying to let you save face by giving you multiple sources the most face saving of which dips down in the direction of your estimate... but lets be real Ukrainain officials have been lying about every operational detail then openly admitting they were lying at every point in this war... so I'm going to take the higher number that even they admitted.
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
Exactly which is why they'd need russia on side for any invasion of Taiwan to act as a deterent so the US doesn't do a first strike with tactical nukes against their sea based and coastal assets
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
China will never turn on Russia, they're going to be at war with the US in Taiwan probably at some point this decade (possibly this spring if they want to capitalize on Russia already being committed)... And they need Russia's 4000 nukes in their back pocket if they're going to have an effective deterrent against the US's vast stockpile.
Otherwise the US could escalate to tactical nuking of Sea and military targets, while china's limited stockpile of 300 would be running into US anti-missile systems, and the maneuverability of Aircraft carriers (which at 30+ nts could probably escape main blast area in a 10 minute flight time)...
Unless they have the backpocket threat of 4000 Russian nukes, those 300 become 100-150 you can spare without losing deterrence, becomes a few dozen that actually hit any targets... At which point the US could be tempted to take out those manmade Islands and costal military facilities.
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
Riots don't happen in winter...
Jan 6th protestors and Canadian truckers would like to like to know your location... (and the Canadian truckers did it in a real winter, -40 Siberian conditions on the parries at the coutes blockade... and -20 at the Ottawa protest they drove 4000km to get to)
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
you are aware my Seniors thesis was on Hobbes and I'm a biological determinist?(completely antithetical to Russeau)
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Note: I don't "Identify" as a biological determinist... I am a biological determinist. My biology is deterministically making my mind process the sum of all available evidence and conclude biologically deterministic conclusions.
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Ps. For those of you wondering how one could be a Hobbesian and a libertarian, Royalist in the 17th century would be think they naturally follow. Most absolutists hated Hobbes and described Leviathan as a "Rebel's Catechism" (Ie. Justification for almost all rebellion)
To give just one example Hobbesian analysis preclude conscription, or atleast allows that armed rebellion against conscription is justified and logical, unless the person being conscripted is in immediate danger of an opposing force (such as a besieged city or alien invasion)
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61742736
This Zelensky Aide puts it at 200 dead and 500 more injured.
RT cites one of Zelenksy's main negotiators as putting it at the 200-500 mark:
https://www.rt.com/news/557262-ukraine-daily-military-casualties/
And here's the Axios story if you don't trust RT citations:
https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia
And here's the video of Ukrainian forces conscripting people off the streets at gunpoint:
https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1556566862846169088?s=20&t=6Cp7CVwajUHcXaPalKx9zA
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
I don't listen to RWA. I just pay attention to the relevant ratios, who's consistently shown to be full of it, and what get leaked or admitted.
none of even the serious pro-Ukraine people expect them to win the fight. Peter Zeihan is a full on neo-con and he keeps talking about pushing Kherson and cutting off the water and Electricity supply to Crimea, that that'd be a bargaining chip, or taking out the bridge at the Kerch strait and cutting off rail supply... but neither of those seem to be materializing, and it seems more likely Russia would just retaliate against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. And aside from that, he's just "Ya Ukraine is outperforming... really showing bravery, too bad the default is they'll probably lose"
And every neo-con or belicose commentator is like this once you ignore the high energy announcements and get into their analysis and predictions its "Ya no its exciting they could pull off this crazy dramatic campaign we've never seen signs of them doing and it would change everything ever... but odds are they won't and they'll get ground down and lose everything slowly and painfully... but hey we still bleed Russia and stop the Germans from pivoting to them, so a US geostrategic victory"
Every time, as soon as you dig into one of these more serious commentators that stake their influence on major us intellectuals taking them seriously, they'll spend ten minutes hedging, praising the UKrainians bravery, lay out some absurd tele-lazer snipe Zelensky could do if he levels up his mech to 5 stars... and then they say "But they need something like that, because as is they're going be ground down militarily and economically until they collapse"
Zelensky admitted 200-500 deaths a day, that's probably 1000-1500 total casualties once you include wounded. That's not sustainable. Their squads that go around black bagging people for the front are going to become predictable and conscripts will dry up. Especially in a corrupt country where gdp is 3k per person, everything runs on bribery, and perhaps even a majority of America's 100 billion went to just paying people off.
We should not expect the Ukrainian commanders to be much different than the Afghan allies the US was funding and training for 20 years... Right now they're getting those black bagged conscripts to the front, because the money hasn't dried up yet... after a winter of economic decline and the US has gotten distracted by an election cycle, another current thing, and congress and the senate are gridlocked across multiple parties, and no one can pass a Ukraine funding bill without someone attaching funding for abortion for illegal immigrant's ar-15s...
US clients have never not been like this. Vietnam collapsed the second US funding and backing started to wane, ditto Iraq, ditto Afghanistan... Hell the US almost lost Berlin to the soviets.
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US backed regional wars are a very specific genre just like slasher movies or romantic comedies There is a formula, a very simple formula.
The enemy is always on the run... except none of the "Dangerous" regions ever seem to become safe regions, and there are a shocking number of offensives that get uncomfortable. The allies are always great brave men fighting for their homeland and the best anywhere in the world... but their budgets are never trackable and they seem to be oddly overlapped with organized crime... hey is that oppium? Hey are those neo-nazi tattoos? America's allies are always winning and training and get really professional and buttoned up...yet they never seem to stop being dependent on attached mercenaries and special force... and seem to always have bad luck maintaining any initiative,
and finally The enemy is always laughably incompetent, loses every battle, and can't do even basic stuff the US expects of its worse units...and yet somehow they win the war.
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The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results... well the US kinda learned... they aren't sending their own conscripts to this Vietnam... just blowing incredible amounts propping up an ARVN force they know isn't sustainable... so instead of years and administrations before the whole thing fails, Ukraine has months and a midterm.
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America wins every invasion, and cia coup... for the same reason it loses every complex local enabled patronage war... the US in constitutionally incapable of addapting its meta tactics. Its winning formula are winning and they work, and they don't get changed... and the second a US invasion gets repelled it might literally be the end of the world, but until the end of the world every US invasion will be a cakewalk. And likewise every US backed local military force, militia and insurgency they arm and train are going to be primarily interested in scamming the American tax payer, because hell that's what the American contractors are there to do and the US isn't going to adapt tactics even if you're caught scamming them.
That people can still fall for this Afghan National Army bull... I swear some of the articles about female fighters were just search and replace and they forgot to take out the sentence about face coverings.
Its a formula. Its a very simple formula.
KulakRevolt
3yr ago
Production is irrelevant when the time to produce the stocks is measured in years, and the rate of consumption is measured in months.
The US cannot keep the supply of Javelins or any other matteriel flowing to Ukraine at anywhere near the rate this war is consuming them. Russia's crappy soviet stockpiles are decades behind the times and half have been plundered... but 50ish% of them are there.
To take just Javellins, the US had given 1/3rd of its total stock of Javelins to Ukraine by April and most of that's been consumed or been sold off to the highest bidder by now.
The US has almost certainly crossed the 50% mark by this point.... that's it. The supply is not going to reach that peak again during this war and the US is almost certainly hoarding most of the remain stock for themselves given they just witnessed how fast that supply is consumed in any real conflict.
Most cultures have semi-mythical ceremonial figurheads chosen through randomness to fulfill some role and say exactly what they're supposed to with little to no personality of their own.
In Nepal they have those pre-pubescent girls whose feet never touch the ground, in Sweden they have Greta, In America they have pageant girls and child celebrities, and in the UK they have the royals.
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