KulakRevolt
Writes at https://anarchonomicon.substack.com/
Writes weird Twitter Threads @FromKulak
Rides motorcycles... poorly.
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Winner of Motte Post of the Year 2019
User ID: 905
I think you're misunderstanding... The US probably could cripple 50% of the domestic US drug trade by 5x-ing the US prison population, which in and of itself might start a hot ethnic conflict on a par with the 1970s (not all Americans use drugs equally, and of those that do they're certainly not equal in their likelihood to get caught)...
The challenge is Hostily imposing this on another country of 126 million, where something like 30-50% of the local government is just pretending to be an ally whilst taking bribes and actively integrating with the cartels.
China has a problem like this, it's called corruption, and Chinese Corruption is absolutely impossible to root out not least because there isn't really a non-corrupt faction and every arrest for corruption is really just backdoor purging by the various factions.
So lets say America goes balls to the wall in Mexico, Full invasion of Iraq. HALF A MILLION US military personnel and then 200-400 thousand continuously once established, This is basically all the US can spare, with 1.4 million active-duty military personnel total, this is everyone but the people actually maintaining the bases and operating the Ships back in the US and around the empire...
The thing is that wasn't enough in Iraq. There was the entire war during the occupation which was only reduced down to a dull roar with the surge.
And this was Iraq with a population one third the Size of Mexico, a Shia Majority, and Kurdish minority that were being empowered by the US intervention against their hated Sunni minority rival who was the one actually fighting the US... And even then it didn't work, and Sunni ISIS arose within a decade, and the country is still divided between militias and local warlords.
You do that in a country with 3x the population, 2x the GDP, several massive cities, and insurgent networks that are basically already adapted to resist US surveillance (these guys have been paranoid about cellphones since the 80s, many cartel bosses simply do not allow cellphones within 200 meters of them, since they assume the NSA is already going full tilt spying on them, and that will be all of them instantly if the ones that don't start getting picked off)...
And also 10 cities with populations over a million where drone strikes basically can't be done, one of which is a ten-million-person mega-city that will just devour an army that tries to occupy it...
Oh ya and it's a permanently profitable trade. So you have to maintain this, for decades... because there's no way you're getting rid of all the corrupt Mexican officials, many of whom are popular and elected, and many of whom are the military... and it will instantly replace itself the second you leave.
Rand had a paper to the effect that The golden ratio for hostile occupations of conquered people is 1 soldier per 50 civilians... that's what was used in Germany after WW2 and Kosovo, America's 2 successful occupations.
America would need 2-3 million to do that in Mexico, or twice the number of people in the entire military... so you'd need a draft, which would be resisted, the resistance of which would be funded by the cartels... which would require further military force and straining of America's already stretched thin police to put down...
You see how this quickly becomes the American state itself being stretched thin, across AMERICA, even if the government magically bites the bullet and goes full force from the start, instead of making the easy call like they did in Vietnam and Iraq and massively under-committing thus letting their enemy organize and create networks, and adapt to the hardest hitting tactics, whilst the politicians are still calling their forces in country "Advisors" and telling the American people they're not at war, whilst various military planners are actually kind-of secretly hoping something will happen and dozens of Americans will be killed so they can have popular support to actually do something that might be kindof effective...
It'll inevitably be something America sleepwalks backward into with some minor commitment, turning into casualties, turning into bigger commitments, turning into more casualties, turning into outrage, turning into a war, turning into a Quagmire... turning into Vietnam...
Except America would never be able to pull out of this Vietnam because it's RIGHT THERE, and the conflict would immediately be inside America's border.
El Salvador succeeded in its campaign because it's a country that was both unnecessary to the drug trade (so once the margins got high enough the trade could go elsewhere), it had the security force fully committed, it had local political will... and it did vastly less than you're thinking because they took out only 3 specific gangs not the trade itself (strongly suspect the El Salvadorean regime is backdoor participating in the international trade for personal profit just like Noriega, and their policy is just making a deal with the people to not let it affect El Salvador directly... so there was a massive profit motive in El Salvadorean security forces crushing MS-13, they were probably their rivals)
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
Maybe I should just bite the bullet with "Twitter CatGirl"
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
Its not maximizing outgroup hatred. Its establishment hatred.
There are tons of people who switched to supporting Trump who would have backed Ron Paul, or Bernie Sanders despite the three not overlapping in policy at all.
OP said he was worried Trump would "Break America" There are tens of millions who are just voting for whatever they think will make America break.
Lots of Americans would support basically anyone to rule the US as long as the first thing they did was put DC to the sword and Harvard to the torch.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
I recently switched from "Writer" to "Director of Marketing and Media" did nothing... Mind you it's possible that that screams bullshit job... but My impression is you have to communicate through the photos, not words.
Genuinely shocked guys don't do group Tinder days where they just all rent suits and go about taking photos in a major city, then all charter a yacht for the day and take photos on it.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
The law wasn't written for presidents, it was written for the general population. Indeed an individual state would not be able to write a law binding only the president.
Ergo if it applies to him Retweeting and commenting on a news piece, it applies to literally everyone for all political speech.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
They are well aware via plain reading of the second amendment and any of the surrounding documentation, as their is enough evidence that they did know the text of the second amendment or should have known such as makes no difference.
But even if we allow that by your logic the tens of millions of democrats who have at some point said "The Second Amendment says this, that's why politicians need to get rid of it" Would thenforce be guilty anytime they advocated gun-control, and probably on every individual count.
Think of all the democrats who at some point said something like "the constitution was written by slaveowners, we don't need to listen to what slaveowners wrote about slaveowner's rights to own guns" All of them go to prison under this standard, that's hundreds of thousands if not millions of democrats.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
If solicting a government official to violate their oath of office is a crime punishable by 1 year per instance, then the very second a libertarian government gets in every single democrat and half of republicans will be put in the work camps for repeatedly soliciting politicians to pass gun control and violate their oath to defend the constitution (which includes the second amendment).
Also every single crime will now be a life sentence because asking police officers and judges to go easy on you will now be likewise criminal solicitation to violate the law and not uphold it.
This law is a blatant violation of not only free speech, but the right to petition, it is not on the public not to ask politicians and government officials not to violate their oaths, it is on the government officials not to violate it.
Notably the first president or public official ever convicted in any way related to their oath will not be convicted for violation, which has basically never been adjudicated and has no precedent, not even rank madness like Lincoln bringing in a draft never mentioned in the constitution or the illegally ratified 16th amendment which makes a mockery of every privacy and property right in the constitution or english common law...
But instead the first notable conviction for anything oath related would be of an elected American President, not for any war crime, not for any violation of American's rights, not for corruption, not for colluding with hostile foreign powers (as FDR certainly did with Stalinist Russia), but for asking a state official to review something the state official didn't....
If Trump can go down for this every soul who's ever set foot in DC could be hanged. And I would lead the revolutionary tribunals to do it.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
Do you have a problem with Cheques, cash, wire transfers, and Credit Cards? Because fraud equally happens just as much if not more often in those mediums.
Fraud is a function of ease of use, the easier a medium of exchange is to use, the easier it is to talk idiots into hurting themselves with it.
Crypto actually has far less fraud than most other mediums of exchange... because its a pain in the ass.
THe only exceptions are blanket mass mailers like this where you try to get some fool to blind yolo money into an account without even pretending there's another side of the bargain, outside a vague threat of "technology scary" so the added element of crypto ads to their normie techno-thriller fears...
Or, there's crypto pump and dumps and other market frauds, which aren't even frauds in the classic sense since its all people trying to outwit and out-lie each other in the speculative market.
None of these things actually effect the use... maybe it gives it a shady perception... but who cares, that's not the thing that makes crypto precarious.
The thing that makes crypto precarious is if you misplace or forget a password you can lose thousands or millions of dollars...
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
Ya it seems there's a lot of high-effort stuff that can get buried for being in the culture war thread...
Maybe a soft rule that culture war-related posts can be top level, if, and only if they are indeed high effort.
You get this weird disjuct where stuff that gets posted outside the thread can actually be quite inflammatory and low engagement, but its allowed because its not immediately culture-war related, whereas a lot of gorgeous high-effort stuff would not be seen by someone scrolling through the landing page because its culture war-related and buried in a thread.
Like the quality contribution roundup is amazing and we should maintain it, but you have to remember the reason it exists is because of how bloody hard it is to find even a major, forum-defining contribution... mere days after it hass been posted
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
Yes but he faced court martial. And it was assumed Bligh would just on the basis he lost their ship.
The U.S.S. Bonhomme Richard burned and was lost in 2020... and the Captain never faced charges, indeed it was assumed he would not and they tried to scapegoat a lone Seaman.
Likewise no generals were court martialed for the loss of Afghanistan... or the fall of Mosul to Isis...
In any responcible military any major loss should result in charges and the assumption the responcible Commander will bear the burden of proof for his conduct.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
The North American right's material position is vastly different from the European... All the Muslims in north America made it through a traditional immigration system and largely are middle class with a few nere-do-well sons that occassionally join gangs... nothing like what Europe faces with its massive underclass of islamic disfunction.
Likewise the Anglosphere has a large meaningful right wing counter culture whereas europe doesn't.
Insitutional left wing media is monstrosity with a skinsuit of legacy brand drawn over it... No Canadians give a damn about the CBC, Disney and hollywood aren't driving culture or building new brands, etc. Basically all the new culture is being developed by individual creators or being imported from various international sources like anime, or Eastern European video games... etc. In addition to the already thriving Country cultureand the paralell red tribe culture that already existed.
As far as I can tell NONE of that has a parallels in Europe or even Quebec. I was in Quebec recently and it was like being time warped back to 2012... none of the big cultural shifts have penetrated.
Every ethnic group in Europe is still in the Thralls of their regional state backed media becuase they'll actually produce shows in their language or mutual not understandable dialect, in the Case of the UK...
North American anglo-culture is just vastly more online, nebulous hard to tact down, and its legacy media has aged and died far faster.
A career in Media or Entertainment in North America right now is akin to being an Auto-worker in the 80s waiting for your plant to shut... and everyone knows it. Basically every Hollywood movie over the past several months has bombed, and most of the studios are looking at layoffs...Everyone under 50 knows working for a magazine or a newspaper is basically a Career kiss of death at this point, and everyone's desperately trying to make the jump to the post insitutional influencer economy.
And as far as I can tell basically everywhere outside North America is 5-10 years atleast behind it on the trend.
...
What should Europeans take from the North American right's Handbook? Probably very little.
Even you internet is heavily regulated and institutionally controlled and gate-kept in a way ours isn't
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
Seems there should be some suitably populous and miserable country that would accept them if you just paid them to take them... A la Australia and Papua New Ginea.
If you paid the Nigerian government 5k a head to take them off your hands they almost certainly would.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
Maybe in the age of sail... When Blithe could be court martialed for losing his ship to a mutiny or Byng be executed for failing to pursue the enemy...
But no one actually believes in classical responsibility any more where one is accountable for outcomes and any technical failure is prima facie evidence of a personal moral failure... Unless he was actually stupid enough to admit aloud the game controller's blue tooth wasn't working or something obscene, and "Accident" would be assumed to be an "Accident"
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
You only think you're talking about class.
Homicide and crime rates are vastly less correlated with income or social class than race.
Japan and Many European countries have GDPs that are nearly half that of the the US and the median person has an income lower than the average African American yet have basically no crime.
Meanwhile the African Americans at the Top 20% percentile of the income distribution have a higher arrest rate than white American's at the bottom 20th percentile.
Likewise urbanization vs. Rural doesn't matter... religiosity...
Life is a biological phenomenon.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
Atlanta has a Murder rate of 16 per 100,000, Mobile has a murder rate of 20 per 100,000.
Chicago is 18. Right between the two.
Democrats are not the relevant factor.
By contrast Major cities with almost no African Americans have murder rates of 2. And almost entirely white towns and areas homicide rates as low as 0.4 or 0.2
Have you ever been to New England, or Canada or the Upper Midwest or any of the high trust areas with basically no crime and the demographics you'd expect?
I remember as a kid people talking about places you could leave your doors unlocked... And I thought "Oh ya I guess lots of people do that here, but you wouldn't do that in Toronto"
It took rewatching Micheal Moore's "Bowling for Columbine" to realize most Americans were talking about "Leaving your doors unlocked, AFTER YOU GET HOME FROM WORK AND ARE DOING STUFF ABOUT THE HOUSE"
Whereas people in my area were talking about "Leaving your doors unlocked while you go on vacation for a few days"
It was shocking to see Michael Moore surprized that Canadians in Sarnia didn't keep their doors locked on a summer's day WHILE THEY WERE AT HOME.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
I'm actually not red tribe... @HlynkaCG is consistently pissed off with me for how not red-tribe I am and how much I don't get "It".
I'm a Canadian Libertarian who spent all my life in the most liberal small towns and Densest of Urban Cores.
That's why I'm so radical, these aren't just things that were unpleasant realities you learned to bite your tongue and propagate white lies about. I actually believed all the egalitarian claptrap throughout my life, that the only thing holding disadvantaged minorities back was discrimination blah blah blah, because I was Canadian and literally every minority I interacted with had gone through the Canadian immigration process and had, or had family members who had, multiple degrees in something (you basically don't get points to enter otherwise)...
So when you ACTUALLY believe everyone is created equal, and ACTUALLY believe all those disadvantaged "poor kids" are just as smart and just as talented as "white kids"... and none of your interactions would ever lead you to believe otherwise...
Then you discover the murder rate of Baltimore has been bloody 80 per 100,000! Worse than the worst warzones. And a fucking war of ethnic cleansing has been going on for the entirety of the post-war era (See any of the first hand accounts of "white flight"), and every person and institution the fucking world has been purposefully lying about it and trying to get you to hate the victims of the ethnic cleansing: Working Class whites, and to think it's just that they become second class citizens excluded from jobs and unable to speak their own minds in their own country under pain of lawsuits, being disappeared from social media, and blacklisted from public life.
And the CoNsErVaTiVeS who were supposed to be standing up for them have been actively enabling it and praising the figures who made it happen, whilst propagating every lie about it?
Ya that radicalizes in a way you cannot possibly imagine.
I'm glad I wasn't raised conservative or believing in America's institutions because there's nothing worth conserving there.
The woke are right: Race IS the most important issue in American life, and literally every American institution needs to burn because of it. They're just mistaken about the specifics of the implication.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
You can look up the murder rates of cities, some like Baltimore have homicide rates that reach 80 per 100,000, El Salvador territory, literal warzones are often less murderous, by contrast peaceful cities with 20+km of walkable core like Toronto or Montreal have homicide rates of 2 per 100,000. then its trivial to look up how the homicide rate in American cities are almost one to one correlated with the percentage of the population that's black.
"White Flight" (fleeing what? Interethnic Violence! ie. Ethnic cleansing) followed the riots of the 50s and 60s after federal and state governments had subsidized the great migration, when masses of southern blacks to move into Northern (though largely not New England) cities, with massive public housing builds.
Gary Indiana is a prime example from 60,000 whites and 10,000 blacks in 1920, to 120,000 whites and 90,000 blacks by 1960, to under 10,000 whites and 80,000 blacks by 2010.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flight#/media/File:Gary,_Indiana_racial_demographics.webp
The idea this was just "MuH RaCiSm" when whites left the cities they had lived in for generations after they'd peaceable allowed blacks to settle there through the 30s, 40s, and 50s, is laughable. What Changed? suddenly the regime was backing race riots and refusing to enforce the law when it came to violence aganist whites. Anything like this would have resulted in the state subsidizing armed militias to defend these cities between ~1870 and 1939.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
Have you read the homicide rates?
Baltimore has a murder rate of 80 per 100,000, comparable with El Salvador.
the fact that American black homicide rates, and all other crimes are WORSE than the very worst of the third world is the single most important fact of Ameircan life.
Literally nothing about America makes sense unless you understand how horrifyingly understated even the very worst racial stereotypes are. Take it from a Canadian who niavely believed all the equality stuff, never once had to interact with any of it, and patted themselves on the back for being so egalitarian and making easy friends with Asian, Indian, and Nigerian immigrants in their school... as soon as anyone who hasn't built their life around denying what's right before there eyes observes the black and white REALITY of what's happened and continues to happen in the US, everything clicks.
I feel awful for all the times I felt myself supperior to blue collar rust belt Americans complaining about blacks... "I'm so much better than them I'm not racist" I thought about people who were being ethnically cleansed.
Lawns are defensive architecture.
If every house has one, its wide, and the HOA can boot you for not maintaining it, that keeps lower income blacks from moving into the neighborhood, and better the suburban design keeps them from randomly wandering through on foot.
AMERICA HAD WALKABLE DENSE TASTEFUL SMALL TOWNS WITH URBAN CORES.
Jesus you can drive through Ontario and still see all of them with their functional shopping districts. You can go to Montreal and see dense low cost 3 floor walk-ups with fire escapes and functional communities and tons of little parks, where people let their cats out at night and young children play with scooters and bicycles in back streets and allies before there parents take them to an event downtown on the subway...
America had all of this. Some of the nicest small cities humanity ever created, a ring of urbanism on the east coast and Midwest that occasionally gave Europe a run for their money.
AND THE GOVERNMENT ENABLED ETHNIC POGROMS AGAINST THEM.
The riots of the 50s and 60s destroyed American neighborhoods far removed from the south or "jim crow", where the defensive design of cities and comunities was already in place... And the government made damned sure no ordinary Americans defended their towns or cities... Hell they just did it again to another group of cities in 2020.
THIS IS WHY AMERICAN URBAN DESIGN IS SO FUCKED UP.
Because everything is designed with the assumption that no one can ever defend it, the regime will actively enable attacks on it, and come after you if you defend yourself.
If you look at how cities were designed 1864-1939 they have none of these problems, because it was assumed anyone breaking into homes or attacking old women would be shot or hanged.
Now you need a big fucking lawn, and you need to be part of a network of big fucking lawns, lest the walking dead druggies start moving through your neighborhoods... You look at neighborhoods from 1920 they follow a grid pattern, because its inherently superior for getting to places and having a wider community and having corner stores... post 1960 its all cul-de-sacs because "the community" will fucking murder you.
and you need everyone to maintain those lawns lest property values drop and your daughters be sexually assaulted or beaten into a coma at school were those lower income children will be going.
Everything wrong with urban design in the US, and all the shit it exports to Commonwealth countries, and Europe... is fundamentally an artifact of how necessary segregation was for white safety... and how now that that's impossible, we have to distort physical reality so that whites can work hard and buy segregation as a bizzare lifestyle instead of having to stand and fight the hot ethnic civil war they fled in 60s and 70s when some of the nicest examples of urban design on the north American continent were turned to fucking ruins.
You want to know what happens when you just have a well designed example of dense best practices urbanism that's been allowed to mature and keep it up piling good decision on good decision in a mid-sized city for 100s of years and as such everything winds up being reasonable and non-exclusive price wise? in the US?
Look at Baltimore.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
LOL
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
As counties get closer to 90% trump support they peak up above replacement. On the larger trends controlling for "Conservatism" Conservative women have something around 2.5 children per woman.
https://www.aei.org/articles/the-conservative-fertility-advantage/
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
NAME ONE LONG SENTENCE. ONE.
You are projecting Jan 6 and the failure and symbolic flagellations of it onto the trucker convoy.
Two entire different protest in two vastly different countries with VASTLY different outcomes.
Canada removed restrictions FASTER than the US after the Trucker convoy. In the Angloshpere and Europe it was by no means that the restriction would be removed at all. After the Convoy and sister protests in Europe and Australia exploded these contries opened faster and removed travel restrictions faster than the US.
The American restrictions on entry were only removed in May of this year, last month.
Stop projecting your American Doomer bullshit onto other Countries. Canada had a political revolution over the past year, the Netherlands had a complete political upset with the Dutch Farmer aligned BBB winning major political offices.
The fact YOU are under the thumb of your elite with no effective means of resistance or organization becuase Trump sucked all the energy out of the room and then tried to bargain it away to the elite, does not mean that resistance has failed in other countries.
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
YES! Exactly.
Which is why its so remarkable the truckers emerged out of nowhere claimed massive amounts of cultural and politcal power, changed the major perrsonel of multiple politcal parties and provinces, and achieved 100% of their policy goals... within months. Canada opened vastly faster than even the Us after the Trucker Convoy, even red states didn't have the complete removal of requirements that existed in Canada in October 2022
KulakRevolt
2yr ago
No that's the thing.
The left has massive stated goals they never achieve or even meaningfully pretend to be trying to achieve...Every single one of their policy fails, and was basically intended to fail so that the people hired to execute the policy never lose the jobs created by it.
Meanwhile the Truckers achieved their stated plain highest level policy goals, the majority within a few months, and 100% entirely within a year.
This would be as if MLK marched on selma and one year later black and white test scores and median incomes were equivalent.
You can't just get rid of the drug dealers because drug users expand into the role as opportunity and demand allows.
I've know dozens of people who've used drugs (Marijauna, coke, psychedelics, etc.) and fulfilled the dealer role at various points, some near professionally.
Basically Supply-side drug enforcement doesn't work, you can maybe get the trade to shift or change shape or increase the marginal price of drugs by 50% but the structural margins keep new cartels, smuggling networks and gangs forming...
To have any success without turning to nation into a totalitarian police state you'd have to start going after users, for being users.
Start arresting randomly for disruptive behaviour, public drunkenness, etc. then Drug test immediately, then charge with possession and consumption, with follow on charges... and you'd have to do that to millions... And heaven help you if middle-class white kids aren't being caught up into it and there's now a massive racial dynamic and revolt, and heaven help you if you actually make upper-midlde-class white American's suffer the consequences of their preferred policies and have THEIR kids dragged off and imprisoned for years... or they'll revolt.
Basically any intervention you could do is either completely ineffective or would be totalitarian in some manner that would start a revolt.
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