Lizzardspawn
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User ID: 594
So both today's big announcement - Opus and Codex - the teams claim that models have build themselves. Do you believe it? Personally I take it with a grain of salt big enough to create the brine bath for a solid 2-3 quarts of ice cream. Anyway as a heavy Codex user I intend to be slightly less rude with it. Just in case.
Lizzardspawn
2d ago
For long I have maintained that in lawsuits involving extreme edge cases, society would be better served if the government, rather than devising new legal logic or establishing precedents, simply assassinated the parties involved. This latest instance does little to dissuade me from that view.
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
And it is off until March.
NASA now will target March as the earliest possible launch opportunity for the flight test.
Teams successfully filled all tanks in both the core stage and interim cryogenic propulsion stage before a team of five was sent to the launch pad to finish Orion closeout operations. Engineers conducted a first run at terminal countdown operations during the test, counting down to approximately 5 minutes left in the countdown, before the ground launch sequencer automatically stopped the countdown due to a spike in the liquid hydrogen leak rate.
In addition to the liquid hydrogen leak, a valve associated with Orion crew module hatch pressurization, which recently was replaced, required retorquing, and closeout operations took longer than planned. Cold weather that affected several cameras and other equipment didn’t impede wet dress rehearsal activities, but would have required additional attention on launch day. Finally, engineers have been troubleshooting dropouts of audio communication channels across ground teams in the past few weeks leading up to the test. Several dropouts reoccurred during the wet dress rehearsal.
Anyway ... if those kind of problems crop up so late in development - the question what exactly is lurking under the surface ready to bite the crew in the ass is relevant.
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
Years ago, I'd have said NASA knows the risk models, and they wouldn't send astronauts on a P(death)=0.1 mission.
Interesting tidbit - an independent consultant estimated the chances of the shuttle blowing up to 1-2/100 . They lost 2 vehicles in 135 flights. He was quite right on the money.
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
If we go full Challenger Appendix F - what are the real odds of something going sideways during the mission? Polymarket prices that at 12% at the moment, but that is absurdly high.
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
Challenger happened due to cultural rot. For me DEI has also a smell of cultural rot.
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
Even if they are not - organizational culture matters a great deal for outcomes. Does it matter if the pressure for you to greenlight something comes because your boss has overly optimistic schedule or because you are afraid she will call you anti black racist?
Nasa has a history of cultural drift leading to disasters. And the track record of embracing DEI is spotty at best.
Do you think that there is no way those two could interact in such a way that to lead to a failed mission?
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
Challenger astronauts were also competent.
Deliberate diversity is organizational rot. Can you think of examples of organizations that become better after dei push?
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
It is just scary how infested the social networks are with AI atm. There is a pattern I notice - something totally unrelated get blown on reddit, then it is astroturfed on my national segment of the reddit, then appears on promoted facebook accounts, written in the most enraging way possible. It is so deep in the uncanny valley - that no chance humans are involved even as editors.
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
Moltbook is ... reddit for AI agents. What is your favorite thing about it? Mine is that the /gonewild /pics and /worldnews sections are empty as of now.
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
The crew is diverse. The backup crew is equally diverse. That increases the chances of NASA pulling off a Challenger substantially in my book. The organizations that care about diversity seems to underperform in execution of their core mission.
Yes the left and environmentalists hate it
Why? For me peaceful space exploration is the least controversial thing - the resources it consumes are negligible, no pollution, huge moral lifter.
We need to explore space. We need to do more stuff in space. And the scientific bang for buck is extraordinary.
Lizzardspawn
4d ago
That leaves mostly autocrats looking to suppress civilian unrest, which is morally abhorrent and also not a huge market.
Oh come on - this is what near IR lasers with eye tracking are - can be cobbled in a week.
Lizzardspawn
4d ago
Right now the bom for a sniper style turret is quite cheap. You take couple of 22cal to .50 and the rest is core xy. And combination of AI + classical algorithms could make the governing software both capable and able to fit into modest hardware. Throw couple of sensors for the wind and rain and you should be able to throw a bullet quite far away with nice precision. The west was moving in direction to have dumb guns and smart munitions. I think that the opposite approach is better.
Lizzardspawn
5d ago
If I had 1m$ I wouldn't bother with investing in markets. Way too many good ideas to pursue in the military industrial complex that will pay off handsomely.
You are missing Bernie Madoff and SBF. Fraud happens.
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