Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
Hello back frens
User ID: 2022
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
6d ago
MMT is propably not a popular position here. Your comment mostly assumes its true, and your very long quote is entirely about why the reactionaries wont see the light. The justification is essentially this:
To be economically literate, one would have to know that saying the government deficit should be cut is identical to saying the non-government surplus should be cut.
The rest is the same thing in different words. And as for that.
Government deficit & debt are good things, and the only problem is along the lines of 'too much of a good thing' (inflation, which is the self-correction mechanism)
Why is inflation correcting it? We have over the last few years heard from many left-leaning economists that inflation is actually fine, the lower classes are just irrationally afraid of it, go right ahead Mr Biden. In a mostly cashless economy like the US, even the logistical problems of hyperinflation can be handled pretty well.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
7d ago
A 1% yearly wealth tax is pretty high though - you have to compare that to interest rates and inflation. Ten year treasuries are 4.5% right now, so this is like another 20% capital gains tax, and thats low due to the circumstances in the US - relative to Euribor its 50%.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
8d ago
In terms of Joe, the best evidence that he didn't take bribes was that Republicans (a hostile party) subpoenaed his bank accounts and repeatedly found nothing of the sort.
Im not up to speed on how this discourse went, but I dont think kickbacks to Joe personally are especially relevant? He could have just played his part so that Hunter would have money. I mean whatever he was taking in at that point was mostly for the next generation anyway.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
9d ago
Are you sure youre not exaggerating the risks? I dont know about most of them, but one that sticks out is:
I'm grateful I still have urinary continence, something that's not common for women who've had kids.
Most women have kids, and even reading the plural strictly many do. If urinary incontinence were the default outcome, at least a third or so of middle-aged women would have incontinence, and I feel like I would know that. If women have more children in your circles, then the risk will be higher, but Id still expect the genpop prevalence to be at least half of those circles, which again doesnt seem to be there. I havent heard about it being the standard in past times with higher fertility either.
The point about fear as an obstacle is relevant, but fear often isnt related to real danger, in either direction; my mother is quite afraid of heights and has a motorcycle. I mean:
Like even as I start breathing faster with elevated heartbeat every time I think about going off birth control
youre pretty much describing panic attacks here. If you want to "get over it", try this: Instead of fearing that it will suck, imagine it would for sure be like your last time again. It would for sure suck. A few years later, youre sitting at a large table full of children. Will you be ok?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
9d ago
Im not sure I understand the things remaining after strikethrough, or at least the justification for it. "one also wonders why phantom limb or cismale phantom penis sensation rates aren't either 0% or... half that of cismen." Why is the half expected? "Low rates of transmale post-mastectomy phantom breast sensation (1/3 or more in ciswomen) would be more significant." Was that number supposed to have a cite?
Ramachandran and McGeoch didn't include how long their MTF survey responders experienced phantom penis sensations
We also dont know how long cis males getting penectomy experience them - if it fades over time, then its presumably a different phenomenon from the pre-op trans version, and the similar number just coincidence.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
9d ago
This is an oversimplification (inevitable, perhaps, when discussing Hegel) but Hegelian philosophy is sometimes explained through the metaphor of an acorn.
I know one such quote, but the point there is different, illustrating his dynamic hylomorphism:
The bud disappears when the blossom breaks through, and we might say that the former is refuted by the latter; in the same way when the fruit comes, the blossom may be explained to be a false form of the plant’s existence, for the fruit appears as its true nature in place of the blossom. These stages are not merely different; they supplant one another as being incompatible with one another. But their own inherent nature makes them at the same time moments of an organic unity, where they not merely do not contradict one another, but where one is as necessary as the other; and this constitutes the nature of the whole.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
9d ago
You didnt mention the matching, I agree that is some evidence. Though they also find that 30% of mtf have phantom penises after bottom surgery, what do you think is happening here? If the phantom penis is caused by a body image where it should be there, then shouldnt the mtf be at ~0? They dont report any other results, but in my experience these things get a lot more complicated.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
9d ago
In the case of rationalists, it's not even a point as major as seed oil disrespect among the "bronze age warriors,"
I think youre off on that. Both groups have people who are really into that thing, but those people are much more central to rationalism. I remember a compatriot who would drink pumpkin seed oil (its a thing in styria) neat as countersignalling and he never had problems.
Also, I think going bald is actually not the end of the world. I would on balance advice not messing with your hormones over it, unless youre 20 or something.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
10d ago
Returning to this, then: I'm the one asserting that we should treat such claims the same as any other report of internal experience. You believe yourself to be Abraham Lincoln...
I think youre arguing that its not true, against sockpuppets claim that they really feel it is.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
10d ago
phantom limb syndrome researchers found ~60% of transmen reported experiencing phantom penis sensations, when surveyed.
And why would you think that these self-reports prove anything to someone sceptical of gender self-reports? Do you think trans people dont understand that such phantom sensations would make them sound more "valid"?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
10d ago
Do you mean asexual as in no sex with people, or no masturbation either?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
11d ago
What will lead the GOP?
I think trumpist campaigning plays out pretty differently when there are multiple people doing it. Im not totally happy with the following explanation of such campaigning, and expect people to dispute some things, but I feel I have to at least attempt one, and I think the conclusion that theres some void to be filled here is relatively clear from just considering the question.
The way the politics game is played traditionally, candidates talk about their policies, are probed for gaffes and flipflops, lose some points for not aswering questions, etc. This gives voters some basis for making decisions, but it can also lead to an "emperor with no clothes" situation with politicians trying to comply with thing voters actively dislike. Trumps strategy exploited a big, interconnected bunch of such issues by rejecting this sort of accountability entirely. This includes saying the populist things, but also not caring how offensive or contradictory you are doing it, never apologising for that, etc. The goal is to trigger a preference cascade towards not judging by those standards. This obviously worked pretty well for him, but it also gives a drastically lower-resolution picture than the conventional strategy. Thats fine if youre far away from all the other candidates anyway, but what if youre not? Now youll need something to distinguish yourself, and I think the great question of the next few republican primaries will be what that should be. Here are the options as I see them:
Inertia-based
Trump won the '20 and '24 primaries because he is the Trump, noone was gonna out-trump him and so noone seriously tried. The path of least resistance going forward is propably that Trump remains in charge of trumpism, continues to voice himself prominently in the media and xitter/truth social, and expects the candidate and later president to dance by his fiddle. I expect this not to go well: People propably arent excited to vote for a president who is outshone even as a figurehead. A falling out at some point is also likely, especially since Trump will likely be more erratic when the role thats naturally the center of attention is filled by someone else. The best case scenario is propably that this goes well once, and then either Trump is too old to stay relevant, or the new guy falls out with him and manages to "win" the internal conflict before his time is up, and then the next election is something else.
The "better" version of inertia is propably some kind of "the party decides". There are plenty of countries that manage without primaries, and while occasional upsets propably cant be prevented entirely if primaries are mandatory, something more like that seems possible. However, the republicans are specifically not set up for this. The democrats have "the groups", and a kind of permanent party leadership - meanwhile, you never really hear about the RNC, except in the fixed phrase "RNC convention". They long where much more of an extension of the current president(ial cnadidate). So the somewhat-possible version of this is that Trump anoints Vance his successor, and Vance some else, they remain supportive of the new guy but in the background, and afer a few times of this you have a more substantial party leadership - but leadership at any time deciding to separate from the previous ones would likely break this, so it takes a long streak indeed.
Return of the media
Candidates go back to conventional campaigning, with a somewhat shifted overton window. This could happen if it seems like political wins were big enough that shielding yourself from the media is no longer necessary, and its also the default option if trumpism has become too unpopular for another go. If it hasnt, there will be significant hesitation before adopting this option, as rejecting it was one of the central ideas of trumpism. Those dont die easily, and its not even clear if the problems of that system where just inerta or an attractor.
There is also the question of the trumpist media. Its been 10 years of Trump on the right, new media outlets have been founded and older ones reconstructed to supporting him. Theyre not really set up to evaluate politicians in a meaningful way, and follow his lead instead. What direction they will take once there is no longer an obvious leader of trumpism is in many ways a similar question to the one Im asking here. If they just try to pivot to evaluation without any kind of more systematic ideological program, that will be one huge slapfight that propably eventually ends in one, but it sure is going to be rough until then. Writing them all off leaves only people who are in significant part not even republicans in name anymore, and propably means a collapse of the right.
Full bore
Candidates engage in an epic rap battle, whoever has the greatest stage presence, the most charismatic voice, and the best alliterative insults wins. This is theoretically the closest thing to multiple people running the original campaign unmodified. I think its unlikely to happen in a pure form, but the the problem of trumpist campaigning that I outlined is with too many candidates running like this. If noone is trying that anymore, it could be viable again. So there could be a mixed equilibrium here, where theres one candidate trying full bore in addition to whatever else ends up happening, with either winning the candidacy sometimes. And since theres no reliable way to have exactly one guy like that, sometimes candidates like that will have to face each other, and it would have to go like that.
Anything you think Ive missed?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
16d ago
I dont think this really addresses what I asked. Its just repeating "Trump doesnt focus on it", when I said I dont think he needs to. The closest thing to a limited resource youve mentioned is political deals, since theres only so many important considerations someone can be given - but the EOs havent involved any concessions. If its about the negotiations themselves, they could be done by someone other than Trump with him approving the result.
Basically, if Trump isnt actively against legislation, and there isnt a real obstacle to it, then any one of many MAGA politicians could do it, but they apparently dont. Wanderers comment is a more serious explanation than what youre doing here.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
17d ago
I think legislative efforts could be made without really compromising EOs - theres more than enough people "on board" now. Theres even all sorts of MAGA congresscritters who are presumably doing *something * with their time/staffers. And thinktanks willing to assist. What youre saying makes sense if Trump actively dislikes legislation (why?), but not if he just puts lower priority on it.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
18d ago
Sure, companies will sponsor campaigns, but any voter who cares can find out what the sponsors of a politician are.
Where patronage relationships not known in Rome? At least you could attack your opponents on it.
My gut feeling is that 87% of the political decisions (weighted by impact) are made on either ideology or merit, perhaps 10% of the decisions are made to please campaign donors and perhaps 3% of the decisions are made to personally enrich the decision maker.
How would Rome compare? You dont conquer the mediterranean without making some good decisions.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
18d ago
You don't want to be sole breadwinner, to have to give up porn, etc. But that's what the old-school marriage contract that you say you want looked like.
Those arent the parts of the fundy tradeoff I have a problem with. Giving up porn is not a huge deal for most guys if theyre having sex, doing it in advance somewhat but propably not a dealbreaker for people otherwise interested in that kind of life, if they believe in the payoff. Sole breadwinner, propably is an issue but depends on how much you make - and rich people are less likely to be super religious, so thats propably not the driver either.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
18d ago
It doesn't sound so much bitter as sarcastic.
This one yes. Theres another, which you dont see easily but she would know. I replied to this one because it was the second one I saw. Though I somehow thought that other one was in direct response to someone talking about the difficulties of children over 30.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
18d ago
This graph isnt about getting married in a certain timeframe, its about getting married to a certain partner. There could still be some effect of that... though I notice now that the IFS data doesnt have age, so bodycount isnt necessarily about relationship length, as it would be for someone evaluating the mostly-similarly-aged women he might date. Note also that their table 1 shows the odds of marrying partner #n continually decining (beware the pooled fields).
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
18d ago
I wonder. Your engagement here, and especially about the age thing, does sound bitter. But I think you were the asexual one, no?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
18d ago
You also have to read these numbers through the different thresholds for getting married in the first place - the people with shorter previous relationships are propably less likely to get married in the first place, and so its more meaningful when they do - but that doesnt hold in the "intervention" condition of "why dont you consider those as potential wifes".
If men were very efficient in assesing divorce risk and chose to marry accordingly, you would expect this graph to go up in the beginning and then be flat, which is more or less what it does.
I see a lot of men who whine and complain that they don't want a "project", or a woman that isn't already the perfect match for them. Well...okay, man, but the entire world is made mostly by men who like the idea of a "project" in basically every facet of their entire lives, so maybe your status as single is a feature of evolution.
Its true up to a point. Obviously a relationship will be work, and you have to accept that not everything is perfect right away, but one of the Copybook Headings is that persistent changes of character are rare and not especially inducible (where weight is apparently included in character traits).
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
18d ago
What do you think of ABSCAM? It looks like they did a sting operation, found that lots of politicians had ~0 inhibition to corruption, and the end result was... they promised not to do those operations again? So if there is actually very little corruption, why not? Just a bunch of 100$ bills on the floor?
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
18d ago
Why do you think he doesnt do that? "Le dumb" was kind of believable during the first admin, but now theres all sorts of people who could be doing that and presumably understand the importance of it. Why isnt e.g Vance writing an immigration bill?
The point of me saying this was that in that situation you should put more effort on justification.
None of this describes an actual problem with inflation. It says that inflation will automatically regulate away any excess borrowings. Why then not set taxes to 0, and just let the inflation run its course?
Is there any reason this is unique to the government? Or is my deficit also literally the same thing as rest-of-the-economy surplus? Because if it is, then it seems noone else should have objections to me borrowing indefinitely, either - it just makes you better of!
Why would they not want more? You demand that I explain why we would ever want non-government surplus to be less, but now you just assert that it will be the case.
More options
Context Copy link