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MaiqTheTrue

Renrijra Krin

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joined 2022 November 02 23:32:06 UTC

				

User ID: 1783

MaiqTheTrue

Renrijra Krin

1 follower   follows 0 users   joined 2022 November 02 23:32:06 UTC

					

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User ID: 1783

I don’t see why video generation is a canary. The ideal use case for AI is in business applications, not generating weird videos of copyrighted characters doing random things. Sora was at best a sort of novelty act, something to show off the potential of a technology, much like the chatbots. When even non-tech people are able to use it, and do kind of cool stuff with it, it generates demand for the product in other contexts. Getting sora to generate Garfield in a fighter jet, eating sushi in seconds puts it in the heads of people making business decisions that AI can do a lot of creative and inventive things quickly.

I kind of agree, though I’ll add that things like electricity, printing presses, the steam engine (which was a Greek toy in the classical era). Its future will depend on whether or not someone figures out what to do with it, and there are millions trying.

I mean I’d buy it if there were widespread interest in the kind of politics that ordinary people could understand and affect them much more than the federal government issues that people spend time arguing about. Nobody cares about the school board meetings, zoning committees, local or state government. They argue about stuff that they have no control over, and they never bother to do anything to actually understand the situation.

I’m not against people making their own choices. To be clear, I think the best model in the entire affair was Sweden who didn’t enforce laws forcing people indoors and forcing businesses to close. Such things are possible— give people proper information and the tools they need and they will find their own balance. If you live with someone at risk, the strongest measures make sense. If you’re a 21 year old co-Ed living in a college dorm, you can do anything you want without too much worry. And you can easily set yourself up to prioritize one thing (like your business) or another (your personal safety). We do this all the time, in pretty much every other context.

But the idea of the state enforcing the choice, the state deciding what I can do with my time, where I may shop, work and play is not freedom and in fact pretty tyrannical. Free people do not need permission from the state to move about, to work, play, socialize, or shop. The state, in a free society must get permission from the people to place restrictions on the people. The state doesn’t get to just decide by fiat that something is so dangerous that they get to decide what the people get to do until the state decides the danger is past.

To add to your first point, the third factor of most successful movements is that you can reduce the philosophy or economic system or social movement to some single sentence meme. In religion, you get things like 5 pillars of Islam, 5 Solas of Calvinism, the Buddhist Noble Truths. In politics, it’s stuff like slogans (in Marxism it’s “from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs”, in Woke it’s generally “Love is love.”). Or maybe some simple that you can spend on a poster or meme or in an elevator pitch. Nuance is poison to the popularity as it makes it hard for a person to easily understand and explain it to others. Love is Love is easy to understand and explain, it fits on a poster.

I think you’re correct that the claims of “temporary measures” was why people didn’t rebel. It’s how most tyrannies begin. No dictator has ever marched to the steps of his Capitol claiming that he’s going to permanently end all civil rights and liberties, it’s always claimed as a temporary measure needed to meet some crisis and of course everyone should go along until the danger is passed. Humans are simply not built for recognizing that first step as the danger it is. I think most of it goes back to our beginning as humans in tribes. A claim of lions in the bushes turns off the rational brain and moves humans back to Stone Age tribes where the strong guy will save us if we do exactly what they say.

It’s one reason I am democracy skeptical. Most humans are better off being a follower and not suited at all to lead or build or invent. We are 90% peasants and a couple of inventors and thinkers and leaders. Why keep asking people to participate if they cannot understand the simple stuff?

You can aim for it, but the planet is finite, so im not convinced you can just make large amounts of everything available. Take housing. If you’re going to ensure everyone has access to a nice home of 3-4 bedrooms and maybe 1/8 an acre of land you are limited to the inhabitable land in the USA and even then you need to be near places with jobs. You basically cannot do this. You can maybe give everyone a car, or maybe cheap consumer goods.

I mean I don’t think he’s going to TACO there. If he were, he would not be proudly shouting that he intends to do that. He’s perhaps TACO over tariffs in the past, but this is different because he’s being very clear about what he intends to do, and he’s positioning the thing so that the west looks absolutely weak if they don’t force the straits open. Add in that we’re mere months from midterms, and the public isn’t going to be patient if gas prices stay high, and inflation goes up by 10% in a month etc. It’s a situation where if he doesn’t get a big win quickly, the whole thing can blow up in his face. Backing down isn’t going to fix this.

I think this is a place where a lot of academics sort of create their own problems. When they sort of hold out the idea that you have to be able to read dry academic texts and have a university degree to do real [subject] it creates two problems.

First, it opens the door to frauds who want to play fast and loose with facts in order to create pseudo-academic lite texts. Most of the Pop-Physics and Pop-Philosophy stuff contains serious enough distortions that you are likely to end up with a false sense of how these subjects actually work. A lot of woo has come out of pop physics books trying to explain quantum mechanics or astronomy, particularly around things like time travel or quantum mechanics or space travel. Michio Kakaku is simply terrible at telling people what physically is actually possible and realistic as a possible future.

Second, it creates a situation where most people think of those subjects as impossible to understand and study. People think history is boring because they think it’s dry historical texts and dates.

So you deliberately destroy the economy so that nobody gets anything above bare survival? The issue is that competition for resources in a situation where the people involved have enough differences to matter means that they become much more tribal than they would otherwise. And as such it’s inevitable unless you find a way to always either have absolutely nothing available to fight over, or so many resources that everyone can have everything they want and still have enough left. If you’re not in either of those conditions, you’re going to have tribalism.

Integration sort of worked in the 1960s because it was part of the American golden age in which everyone could reasonably expect that a modicum of effort would allow them to own a house and a car and their kids could go to an affordable college and land a white collar job. In 2026, that’s no longer the case, homes are out of reach for most people, secure jobs are hard to get even as college becomes virtually unaffordable for most people. In that Situation, it’s easy to fall into tribalism and work to make sure that whatever resources available go to people like you, rather than some other tribe.

I don’t see why you couldn’t have a situation like in Orthodox Christianity where national churches are granted a degree of autonomy in local matters and cultural practices while being obligated to uphold the things that the orthodox churches have declared dogma or required practices.

I mean there are Western cultures that are common to our shared cultural heritage. Things like the Enlightenment ideals of thought (rationalism and empiricism) liberal democracy as ideal ways of making decisions. If you don’t agree, just imagine someone choosing to do things the opposite way. Perhaps they are a monarchist like Curtis Yarvin, or they decide to make major decisions by use of a set of Norse Runes, or they think liberalism and civil liberties and human rights are suspect. Would such a person be able to do those things openly in polite society without triggering a huge backlash against themselves. You wouldn’t want to see the CEO of your company using Tarot cards to decide on major strategic planning. Yarvin is mostly an object of derision in those same polite society.

At some point, I think you reach critical mass where the groups who reject Western consensus end up being strong enough to make the assumptions of our culture no longer the consensus that you can assume most people around are on board with. One Yarvin is a curiosity, 3 million Yarvinites in a state can affect the zeitgeist.

I’m not convinced that multiculturalism doesn’t need some speech suppression, it can sort of coast in periods of prosperity without it, but when you create a situation where it’s obvious that there’s not enough goodies to give the majority of people the good life, it falls apart quickly, and even with speech controls in place it’s hard to keep tribalism at bay.

I think this is true, but I also think that the modern relationship to feelings and especially trauma is likewise a sort of emotional luxury. Just like you couldn’t really function if you fell to pieces when a child died young, you really can’t afford to feel negative emotions as strongly as modern people do simply because such events were common in those eras and there wasn’t a safety net for support. If you fall apart when the crops fail or predators eat your sheep or you’re drafted for war you aren’t going to make it if such things make you fall apart.

It could also be that Iran is untrustworthy, thus negotiating with them isn’t useful. Iran was not cooperative in nuclear inspections. They funded Hamas and Hezbollah. They don’t stop even when they’ve agreed to. What is the point of extracting an agreement if you cannot trust the other side to actually do what they’ve agreed to do?

So fix those problems. It’s like saying “well lines at the DMV are long, so we can’t require people to get a driver’s license before driving a car.” That doesn’t follow. What should happen is you hire people for the DMV offices, automate as much as possible so people can get licensed to drive. Not being able to stop all murder is a terrible reason to legalize murder.

I’m not really that convinced by the argument that these kinds of IDs are hard enough for legal Americans to get that we should somehow be aghast at the idea that someone would have to produce proof of citizenship and identity for voting.

For one thing, just going about modern life requires this sort of thing all the time. You can’t open a bank account, drive a car, get a job, or get on an airplane without proving that you are who you say you are. I can’t even walk into a casino without proving my identity and age. Which brings up the question of exactly how people can go around and survive in 21st century America without having a valid ID in some form. The biggest change here is that the ID would also have to prove citizenship. This isn’t a big deal for the 99% of Americans with jobs and cars and bank accounts. Most of them will have ID and while you might need some proof of citizenship, it’s not particularly difficult to do so. And really I think a single passport card would actually eliminate the Pokémon problem simply because it’s one universally accepted card that any entity would accept as proof of identity and citizenship and so on.

I think something like this is absolutely a good thing. The trouble with creating an agency is that it’s forever even if the issues the agency was created to oversee no longer exist. It also creates a pretty strong hedge against mission creep and redundant oversight where two agencies are regulating the same sorts of issues.

Neither side is dealing honestly. The pro-birthright position is just as unprincipled as the anti-birthright position. The history of the 14th amendment has no provision for the idea of people coming to the United States specifically to have children within the borders who would thus be citizens. The argument was that they had all these former slaves who had been born in the country and had lived there their entire lives. The point was that they didn’t want these former slaves to be in legal limbo where they could work and pay taxes and so on without the protection of the Bill of Rights. That’s why we have a fourteenth amendment. Trying to shoehorn illegal immigration and birth tourism into a “slaves are citizens now” post civil war law that was written before global travel was plausible on the scale we have today. Trying to use this amendment to create an immigration free-for-all where any person who gives birth here —even if they were only here for a day and only came so that baby would be born on American soil and thus be American— can have an American baby, and thus have a way to stay or return later is simply disingenuous. This isn’t what the law was designed for.

I see it mostly as a case for originalism more than anything. The distortion comes from the fact that the people writing these amendments did not intend it to be what it is now— basically a situation where a woman can go into labor just as the plane from Bangladesh is landing at LAX and thus the baby is automatically American. The intent was to make citizens of former slaves right after the civil war in an era where international travel was rare, expensive and somewhat difficult. The amendment if interpreted in that light and noting that the Indians were excluded because they were not taxed and that the amendment mentions subject to the jurisdiction, I think you could make the case rather strongly that we are talking about long term, legal, tax paying immigrants at minimum and more likely except for freed slaves that this applied to the children of citizens, with the intention of preventing a situation where generations could be born in the United States and never be citizens with the legal protections that are granted to citizens.

On the other hand birthright citizenship creates the problem of birth tourism which happens in all kinds of forms now and is used as a means to back door legalize the parents who come to the USA specifically to give birth to their American citizen child, thus using that American citizenship as a means to stay because they can’t raise their American child if they get deported.

It’s negative because of the misuse of social pressure to extract the tips. It’s not just “do it if you feel like it.” In many cases, the person finds himself or herself in public or with friends while the waiter hands over or spins the iPad with the tip already filled in, then the person is forced to either go along (and add another 15-20% to the total bill) or publicly choose to not tip. To me, the issue is less tipping itself and more the coercive approach taken where im pressured by the knowledge that other people see what im doing (often including the waiter himself) thus making it less of a free will gesture and more of a pay or be a jerk gesture.

I’m definitely in the Postman camp, although I think entertainment has gotten more stimulating, not necessarily better. Most mainstream movies barely nod at old-fashioned notions like character development or coherent plot, instead going straight for the dopamine hits of explosions and crazy over the top special effect shots and CGI. You can kind of see this in long running movie series, like James Bond. Early James Bond was a spy, sure he was often in danger, but he was more often than not using his spy craft, thinking and investigating. Now, it’s over tge top, and barely bothers with mystery and gathering clues plus Daniel Craig can survive just about anything. Is that better than Dr. No?

But I do think screens are a hyperstimulous that people choose over other less stimulating options. And if you saturate a society in such screens, eventually they sit home and stare at them all the time. I don’t think anyone would choose this. I’ve said this before. If it were simply a matter of screens being better at entertainment, then people would be saying things like “sure hanging out with my buddies and playing basketball was fun, but it wasn’t as much fun as playing basketball on my PS5 against a random guy online.” I’ve never heard anyone yet regret spending time doing non-screen things because it kept them from a similar screen activity. Nobody regrets going outside.

I think honestly if you gave people the option of having the entertainment technology available in 1946, but also having the lifestyle of the same year — lots of real friends, going to dances, playing sports outdoors with your buddies, gathering for card and board games or just dinner, etc. I have a strong suspicion that most people would leap at the chance. There’s a lot to be said for such a lifestyle and the culture and community it creates. So radio plays aren’t as cool as Netflix and you can’t listen to anything at any time. You still have close friends and a community and get more exercise and share an organic culture.

I’m not going to say treason. I don’t think it fits. But I will say that in my opinion, most of the bad outcomes from wars in the twentieth century and twenty first for that matter come not so much because of the war itself, but because the nation wasn’t fully committed to winning. Asking the president to “just stop” isn’t going to bring peace, because it simply shows the world that the USA refuses to win wars. Why would Iran or other nations like Iran be worried about a weekend bombing that leaves the country mostly intact and most of the leadership still in power? You punched the bully once in the face, but stopped short and without forcing him to stop hitting. What he learned is if he can survive the first punch, he can do as he pleases. I don’t think America will stop, but I can’t imagine this sort of thing isn’t giving Iran a reason to not bother to negotiate.

It’s not just working that’s at issue. It’s working for other people outside of the home, thus creating a situation where the woman is tasked with keeping house and cooking after a full on workday. Add to this that such an arrangement pretty much requires that the family fork over tens of thousands of dollars a year to warehouse the kids while mom and dad work, and that if anything less than ideal happens to the kids, they’re blamed, and you have a situation where having a child (let alone 3-5) is just so daunting time and money wise that a lots of couples don’t even try.