MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
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User ID: 600
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
11mo ago
Well sure but that doesn't affect the ticket, just the last few months of the current administration.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
1yr ago
I used to read while driving. Still not sure how I am still alive after this and similar risks.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
1yr ago
I got 19, 62, 0, 67, 33 respectively. The 0 in agreeableness is highly unlikely to be correct, but I may be misinterpreting what it purports to represent. I do tend to disagree with a lot of people, but I am certainly polite and hate confrontation.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
2yr ago
I would bet heavily on means testing as the primary solution.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
7mo ago
Agreed, and that makes sense if his main talent is creating an interesting world/magic system. Once that's been outlined and a few adventures have occurred, there's not a lot of meat left.
I did like his early novel(la?) about the protagonist with multiple personalities.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
8mo ago
It could be interpreted that way. Alternatively one could argue that the ability to make regular phone calls is a perquisite of working, and therefore if one does not work one would not receive the benefit. They're fairly functionally equivalent.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
8mo ago
I suppose the text itself is not particularly objectionable, merely unnecessary.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
10mo ago
For my father's long-time job the differentials were 2x for Saturday work and 3x for Sunday or holiday work. In my previous federal government job (~30 years ago) there was a shift differential of 10% for second (16:00-00:00) or third (00:00-08:00) shifts. I worked second shift which was quite acceptable for a young single guy.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
10mo ago
Any survivor players? I'm in a small league (12/24 remaining) and a medium league (350/500 remaining). There are several decent candidates this week in the 6-7 point favorite range. I'm looking at Houston and Dallas, as both have minimal future value (although Dallas w13 vs. Tampa Bay is a strong option). If I go with those, I'll probably use Dallas in the small league which is unlikely to last past week 10 or so, and Houston in the bigger pool.
Also the bigger pool allows 1 rebuy through week 4 which adds some complexity. I've always ignored that possibility when handicapping and just used it if necessary.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
1yr ago
I am old and out of touch, so take this with the proper skepticism. Clearly you need to just not ask her out. If you run into her, get your hug, have a pleasant conversation, and let that be the end of it. Presumably she has your number etc.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me three times, I won't get fooled again. (/bush2)
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
1yr ago
TI-99/4A, using the TV as a monitor and a tape cassette to save data. I did occasionally have access to some sort of terminal at computer summer camp which was largely spent playing Moon Lander. But there were many, many hours spent typing in BASIC programs.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
2yr ago
That is the first time in at least a decade someone has called me optimistic. Perhaps there is hope left!
Sure, they'll try to hold it together with string and bubblegum. I just think that "tax the fat cats" (of whom there will be ever fewer) is historically the option most often chosen.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
2yr ago
I've been buying 4-week T-bills for a few months and rolling them over. Nothing at all looks remotely attractive so safety is king.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
1yr ago
Yes this seems correct. There is no upside and considerable downside risk in answering in any other way. Similarly one should not talk to police beyond the absolute minimum legally required.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
8mo ago
I voted no on all propositions except 36, for which I enthusiastically voted yes. As always, the proposition titles are misleading and meant to misdirect voters. "Involuntary servitude" is of course meant to evoke images of slavery and chain gangs. If that one passes, I am reliably informed that most of the prison jobs will go away due to lack of funding, leaving prisoners without any options to make money.
I entirely agree that 36 is largely seen as an obvious measure by the majority of Californians and will pass easily. I live in a mostly blue area and people who I've spoken with from all walks tend to agree - with the caveat that they're mostly men.
The entire proposition system is fairly useless as the legislature and courts just ignore or distort the results anyway.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
9mo ago
An effective ad would be to simply show pictures of pregnant women at say 3m, 5m, 7m, 9m. That is a simple, visceral set of images that most people will be immediately familiar with and can instinctively compare.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
8mo ago
They aren't actually forced to work. They may be granted certain privileges if they do work (along with the meager stipend) but no one is forcing them to work. That's the deliberately misleading part.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
8mo ago
In order to have a risk-free outcome you'd need to arbitrage against a different site that had better odds for Harris. Say for example the odds were 50/50 on site X. Then you could essentially bet infinite money on each site at no risk (assuming you are certain to get paid for winning!). You could freeroll Harris by betting Polymarket $100 Harris and X $100 Trump, giving you a guaranteed return of $250 if Harris wins (net +$50) or $200 if Trump wins (net 0). Or you could guarantee a few bucks either way by reducing your Polymarket Harris bet to $80, where the nets would be Harris +$20 or Trump +$20.
These situations can be massively profitable IF you are guaranteed to collect, there are not significant tax considerations, etc., etc. Accordingly they are pretty rare for things like sports betting. There are actually syndicates and other operations who do this all day every day by watching price differentials across markets.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
10mo ago
(This is a good example of a personal bubble!)
In its simplest form, a survivor league for the NFL involves choosing one team per week which must win its game. If the team wins, you survive to the next week. The caveat is that you can only choose each team once for the entire season (I believe 18 weeks currently). There are several strategic considerations: how likely each team is to win in the current week; how often the team might be a good choice in future weeks; how popular you expect the choice to be; etc. For a simple example if you have a team that is expected to win nearly all their games, and there are 1000 entrants in the contest, you'd want to save that team as long as possible for use in a situation where there are no other great options. Also regarding popularity if you have a team that say 50% of entries are likely to choose, then you almost never want to pick them because if they lose you've now eliminated half the field.
https://www.survivorgrid.com/ has a lot of this information in convenient format, the most valuable being the percentage picked for each team.
There are also several variants of survivor including picking a team to LOSE each week, having to pick 2 teams each week, potential reentries if you lose, and many more. It's an interesting way to gamble.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
11mo ago
Eh, this is one of those things that I will just deal with as part of married life. Otherwise she's honestly great. And I'm exaggerating my discomfort a bit - I will simply retreat to my office (where I prefer to be 90% of the time anyway) and we'll deal. Yesterday was an outlier with all of the news and Harris hype.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
1yr ago
The question is whether the payoff of posting something even theoretically cancelable is worth the small risk of losing one's livelihood or personal relationships. Everyone will have an individual payoff matrix. Personally I've decided that the minimal utility I get from online posting is not worth any risk of blowing up my life. Especially considering that advances in AI may make it much easier to identify writing patterns and habits.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
1yr ago
Yes you could not do this with other sports, it would have to be limited to football (maybe basketball). The other sports would continue to remain in their current conferences.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
2yr ago
It's a poker metaphor. Basically it means when confronted by a momentous decision with high personal stakes, it is sometimes better to eschew a profitable but high-variance situation in order to wait for an even better situation.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
8mo ago
My kids will tell you that when daddy dies, just throw him in a ditch.
Or as we used to call it in the station wagon, the way way back.
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