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MotteInTheEye


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 05 13:57:58 UTC
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User ID: 578

MotteInTheEye


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 05 13:57:58 UTC

					

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User ID: 578

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I'll register a prediction that 2 years from now we are in the middle of an extremely similar debate. Maybe that means I'm on your side but I think the overwhelming likelihood is that we are saying, "Yes, LLMs by themselves didn't create the singularity / fundamentally alter the world, but when you combine them with the latest revolutionary technique from OpenAI there's no doubt it will happen very soon."

Or alternatively, "LLMs are changing the world and it's just taking employment indicators etc. a while to catch up."

In any case, I doubt that the debate will feel settled in any way at that point.

Pelosi asked how they could resolve the situation, and what DEPAPE wanted to do. DEPAPE stated he wanted to tie Pelosi up so that DEPAPE could go to sleep as he was tired from having had to carry a backpack to the Pelosi residence.

This part is cracking me up, like he's complaining about how inconveniently located the Pelosis' house is for violent nutjobs.

That's the problem about integrity in politics - none of the voters have any so it's almost always counterproductive for your electability if you do.

It's not that none of the voters do, it's that the electorate as a whole does not (and essentially cannot).

Thanks for this, really interesting read. Like freemcflurry I'm wondering what you mean by attempting a coup, is there a likely mechanism or precedent for that in the last couple centuries?

I don't understand what the motivation behind attempts to have it scrubbed would be. Any enemy agents worth worrying about already have copies of it. So the only benefit of scrubbing it now would be making it harder for the public to find. Is there stuff in there that's just uncomfortable for the Pentagon to have widely known, or is it just an attempt to downplay the story by making the evidence harder to find?

it’s hard not to have a grudging affection someone who’s such an obstinate libertarian that even the other obstinate libertarians don’t want to hang out with him

I am on O'Toole's side about suburbs and cars, but I'm not sure it makes sense to call support for single family zoning more libertarian than opposing this. It seems clearly to be a measure of social control.

I guess you could make a case that in a consequentialist sense, single family zoning will result in more actual personal autonomy given the assumptions that relaxed zoning leads to density and density leads to a certain political climate. But at the end of the day I suspect almost everyone has some kind of story for how their proposed laws or regulations ultimately lead to more freedom.

It all depends on what the point of saying "America was built on slavery" is. My impression is that the goal of this movement is to establish that the USA's extraordinary economic prowess and status as the premier world power is due to (would not have existed without) its early reliance on slavery, rather than to its unique founding principles or constitution. If this is true, then the case for forfeiting its those founding principles to atone for the evils of slavery through e.g. reparations or affirmative action is strengthened.

They are performative in the sense that they don't result in any legislative action, but like you I think they are warranted and will be fascinating.

I don't think segregation is the right term for this unless the call to patronize black-owned businesses is only intended only for black people. It's simple racial discrimination.

I don't think that's quite the whole story because without weight classes, you wouldn't watch a big buy beat up a little guy, you just wouldn't have a little guy in boxing at all.

There might be multiple factors involved, because most sports have a women's version at the top levels, and they obviously have developmental levels like high school and college because otherwise you don't have a pipeline of new players, but not as many have "pro, but not as good" levels which would correspond to boxing weight classes. There's no "short guys" NBA.

The one doesn't take away from the other. All those kids that love the Narnia series wouldn't have been reading "Transposition" if the Narnia books had been less popular.

I do think that the forum could have scraped by for a couple more years on Reddit, but there was also the risk that the chilling effects of admin threats and mod policies in response to those would have left the forum too weak to execute a move as successfully as it did when the time came.

I think they got much more widespread criticism than they expected and will quietly step away from the bowdlerized versions. I doubt they will fly off the shelves, so I don't predict that they will be unavailable for sale in a year, but I predict that the original versions will continue to be widely available.

I spent half an hour or so watching this the other day. You a reading tea leaves here - there is no joke. I must have seen a couple dozen brief scenes in that stretch and not a single one of them had any kind of joke. The AI is just spitting out the kind of dialogue that Seinfeld characters generally talk about without any goal of making it funny.

Basically nobody wants AI to tell them what their goals should be. They want it to help them accomplish their existing goals. If the current frontrunners vision is accomplished, they will essentially be able to instantiate limitless instances of an intelligent being devoted to their causes. The utility of that is pretty obvious.

I do think the median republican is more able to have a civilized political conversation with his ideological opposites than the median democrat

I understand the sentiment that this metric is supposed to point to, but the metric itself doesn't seem coherent. The ideological opposite of the median Republican is the median Democrat, so unless you have some asymmetrical concept of a civilized political conversation, this can't be the case.

When Jesus returns to Earth in The Grand Inquisitor he doesn't save the righteous or establish the kingdom of heaven, no Russian would've bought that, least of all Dostoevsky.

Is The Grand Inquisitor typically interpreted as being representative of Dostoevsky's views? My read has always been that Ivan represents the secular philosophy that Dostoevsky opposes.

But they and all the big tech companies have stamped out this sort of question precisely because of the chilling effect of the law. You can obviously make a case that it's related to job performance, but their legal departments prefer to stick to coding and behavioral questions where the case is self-explanatory.

Being addicted to fentanyl probably is related in some cases to doctors prescribing opiates without sufficient caution.

It seems like "is related" is kind of sweeping some stuff under the rug in that sentence. My understanding is that there is good evidence that over prescription leads to more drugs available on the black market, but that it is in fact extremely rare for someone to develop an addiction stemming from their own prescription. The vast majority of addicts started on other people's prescriptions. (Let me know if you have a different understanding of this.)

If that's the case, it's not really relevant to the agency that the addicts had in becoming addicted to say that the drugs were prescribed too carelessly in the first place.

Not sure that's fair to Brady, you could just as easily say that playing football at 43 was a low-odds gamble, and he won the Superbowl. The man clearly just decided to keep playing until results showed that he actually couldn't keep up the dominance any more. And the difference between him and the others is that there was little or no chance of his gamble throwing away the things he had already accomplished.

Most people in the private sector don't actually get Juneteenth off here, even though it is a recently added public holiday so that could change over time.

Seems plausible enough to me, but I guess your point is that it's in tension with the overall progressive stance that suicides are helpless victims.

I hadn't realized that DeSantis is a Catholic so I will cede your characterization of him in particular as not living up to the ideals he professes in that regard. I think your insistence on using "true pro-lifers" to refer to the Catholic position is obnoxious but there's no point in an extended argument about a label.

On average, would men whose wives engage with Aella's content or women whose husbands engage with Aella's content feel more threatened by it? To me it seems obvious that it is the latter. And if so, the sample is inherently biased towards men who don't care what their wives think.

Given how much more quickly it swept through the rest of the world, it doesn't seem plausible that it's been raging for two years in China and is just now getting too big to hide.