MotteInTheEye
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User ID: 578
MotteInTheEye
4mo ago
Maybe he lost a limb.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
Not with that phrasing, perhaps, but the idea that crime is caused by systemic issues and social conditions is equivalent to saying that those things create a social niche which someone will fill.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
And the flip side is that most grandparents are too old and frail to contribute much to the household by the time they have grandchildren.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
The primary method of cheating in chess is to use game engines to suggest better moves than a human could think of. Modern game engines are much, much better than any human players and at this level of the game it might only take a couple of key moves to sway the outcome.
Of course over the board tournaments have lots of rules and procedures to prevent this, so much so that many think Niemann could not have circumvented them and that if he cheated it must have been through spying. But the bandwidth of information that needs to be transmitted to and from an accomplice is so low that I don't think you could ever be 100% sure it didn't happen. Which is unfortunate because it means an accusation of cheating is essentially unfalsifiable.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
Do you have a link to a recipe? That sounds fascinating and delicious.
MotteInTheEye
6mo ago
I would guess there are plenty of manly men who bird watch, but they are mostly not the ones who sit on the committees and run for president.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
The question isn't assigning blame, it's actually assigning credit for success. If America's success is primarily due to slavery, then a) maybe the slaves are owed not just for the wrongs due to them but also for the lion's share of America's prosperity and b) the achievements of the founders are proportionally reduced, so fidelity to their principles is less important.
MotteInTheEye
22d ago
That phrasing has a long tradition in Anglo law, see e.g. the Royal Navy's articles of war from 1749:
- shall suffer death, or such other punishment, as from the nature and degree of the offence a court martial shall deem him to deserve
This or very similar phrasing appears in many of the articles.
MotteInTheEye
29d ago
I had completely forgotten that that place existed. I think they could have had a much more interesting arc if the moderator drama at the outset hadn't dampened their early momentum.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
By removing a small number of people from the streets we can have a drastic reduction in crime.
I think this is plausible but doesn't follow inevitably from the rest. Presumably the progressive response would be that the societal niche exists independently of the specific person who ends up filling it. Consider an analogous claim that, because 1% of people (fast food workers) do 90% of the deep frying in the US, we could improve obesity stats by removing a small number of people from the streets.
Your prediction is a useful one to distinguish between these hypotheses, but also hard to differentiate from a deterrent effect making crime less attractive (which we would also expect to see if we arrested all fast food workers).
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
Thanks for the detailed breakdown! I'm still not seeing where the sense of "getting in trouble" is coming from in your explanation though.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
It's not even satire, it's just run of the mill sarcasm which they dropped in the second half of the comment.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
There is no secret sauce, they are the BEST.
Couldn't the secret sauce be that they have been using their model to facilitate their work longer and more effectively than anyone else? It would explain why it has accelerated so much over the past 6 months.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
Speaking plainly also helps avoid people who are taken in updating on what their opponents believe based on a steelman/parody which may not represent them well.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
It seems like it would be better for you just to go watch the videos, they aren't hard to find. I'm not sure why you are soliciting more secondhand information when you don't trust the secondhand information you already received.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
I guess the problem with this is that your potential cabinet members are going to have other important jobs which would be impacted by the announcement that there is a 50/50 chance they'll be quitting.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
Was military intervention right-coded in the Clinton era? I wasn't politically engaged then but I know in the West Wing "Republicans want to have the biggest army and never send it anywhere" was presented as a commonplace joke.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
Seems like growth, contraction, and staying exactly the same are the only logical options, and staying exactly the same isn't a realistic option for any significant time period.
MotteInTheEye
9mo ago
Oh, I've read that African billionaire thing a lot through secondary sources but I'm not on Twitter, what was the nature of the debunking?
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
Blitz is too slow for that, you need 6 uninterrupted minutes. You can start with blitz and work your way down to bullet which fits in a more reasonable 2 minutes.
Bullet chess is a pretty different game but it's a lot of fun because you can gamble on traps which would be clear blunders at higher time controls.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
If you're not already running a local developer instance of TheMotte, then you're not the volunteer material Zorba's looking for.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
I'm pretty sure the navigators were called the Guild in Dune as well.
MotteInTheEye
1yr ago
Considering that chess game engines are much better than any human there wouldn't be much point to playing chess if you were allowed to use game engines.
MotteInTheEye
12d ago
But they and all the big tech companies have stamped out this sort of question precisely because of the chilling effect of the law. You can obviously make a case that it's related to job performance, but their legal departments prefer to stick to coding and behavioral questions where the case is self-explanatory.
I guess a corresponding benefit could be dramatically reducing the overhead of a small business. But only in a fantasy world where all state taxes followed suit.
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