NewCharlesInCharge
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User ID: 89
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
I remember within days of the story coming out there was a guy who published a Github verifying that the DKIM signatures on the emails matched. Which means either they were legit, or were forged by someone who was able to steal Google's signing keys from five years prior, or who had the nigh impossible computing power to crack those keys.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
Agreed, it seemed like on the CNN panel Axelrod and Van Jones were the only ones flailing like I'd expect if they were actually blindsided. If you're a loyal Democrat I'd expect some grasping at straws, making excuses, and outright denial.
On Kamala's post-debate interviews, the most she'd say is that Biden had a "slow start." I'm guessing she was left out because whoever's running the show knows she can't be the nominee, so they can't let her know the plan and try to position herself.
Everyone else got the memo that if Biden can't hack it they're free to call for him to step down, so they were prepared to see him fail.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
The Democrats mostly did away with party leadership selecting candidates after 1968. At this point the DNC has even defanged superdelegates, they're not allowed to vote on the first ballot. So the leaders only get outsized voting only if the nomination is still contested even at the convention.
They've also painted themselves as the defenders of democracy, that Trump is a would-be dictator who will end democracy in America. Yet it's Trump that won the primaries fair and square, and if the Democrats replace Biden it's them that's ignoring the will of the voters.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
I haven’t detected any shift in urgency. There’s a nightly show on CCTV where talking heads prattle about Taiwan, but apparently they have been doing this show for thirty years.
The message is still “Taiwan is a part of China,” same as it ever was. I guess there might be a bit more accusations of American meddling, but that may just be reflecting reality and not designed to escalate.
They also don’t have timelines driven by elections, and have no problem waiting until reintegration is a foregone conclusion.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
I suspect that methane leaks are basically not real, and the meme probably driven by some research paper with either shoddy methods or a narrow application.
I happen to have two gas meters on my property. One connects to appliances in our house, the other to a heater for my pool. I use the heater maybe twice a year. During the months it is not used, there is zero movement on the meter.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
I wonder if providers are in paranoid election mode now. In 2020 Facebook had a huge election security effort, maybe other companies are Doing Their Part to Secure The Election.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
Pro-HBD guys like Razib Khan and Stephen Hsu are racist.
This is playing definitional games. "Believes there are measurable differences between races" is a fairly new definition. It will almost always, and probably on purpose, be conflated with "believes blacks should be treated detrimentally purely on account of being black."
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
I dismissed Yudkowsy as having anything useful to add when I listened to him on Brian Chau's podcast and learned that he has zero practical experience with AI.
This is supposed to be the thing you're most passionate about and concerned with, and you never even bothered to tinker around with PyTorch or something like it? IIRC he didn't even understand what Chau was talking about when he said PyTorch.
Imagine someone who makes their life's work opining on video games but they never actually played one, everything they know is based on second-hand knowledge and their own speculation.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
A whole lot of them are dumb enough to make their membership in criminal gangs public in other ways, like social media posts and rap songs.
But we can't even criminalize gang loitering, see Chicago v. Morales. Mere membership is likely going to be a protected First Amendment right to association. Bukele doesn't have this problem.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
It's a strange side effect that whether or not the shooter is killed impacts whether or not their writings are kept private.
If she was alive this material would be discoverable and likely submitted as evidence in the eventual case against her.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
It went all the way up and down with a soft splash landing, even though the thermal protection failed to the point that the aerodynamic control services were melting.
The video of the melting flaps is wild.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
I think it's more like Jews that don't keep the sabbath or eat kosher, it's part of your ancestral identity rather than representing any belief in divine revelation.
Even Sunday mass itself is obligatory, along with a smattering of holy days of obligation. So if you're not giving any weight to that rule, you're unlikely to give any weight to the others. The non-weekly attenders that happen to align with the church are doing so on accident, the church isn't the source of their opinion.
They might go to church for Christmas and Easter. Very few priests would use those as a platform to catechize the cultural Catholics. The most I've seen is gentle nudging, like "Look how hard it was to find parking today, people had to park in the neighhborhood. A lot of you must not be coming every week, and you really should!"
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
The Qing dynasty also saw no need for disruptive innovations.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
But that would be a very stupid thing to do.
Without the export bans China would have continued to buy instead of build the most advanced process chips for the foreseeable future. We've forced their hand to bet everything on build.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
Better than Gaza, I'm sure, but Taiwan is still a net importer of food, with most of that food coming from the mainland. It's a common refrain by pro-mainland folks that Taiwan is dependent on them for food.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
Xi appears to be trying to address the latter, but if he wants to give his army some practice he may intervene in the Burmese Civil War as a fairly low-risk enterprise (who's going to stop them, Thailand?) with a reasonable casus belli (instability and criminal activity on their borders threatening national security).
My wife was telling me about the kidnapping problem there and I remarked that we would probably go to war with a neighbor state whose gangs were holding thousands of Americans as slaves and the government there was doing nothing about it. Apparently if someone makes a scam phone call and speaks native mandarin there's a good chance they're human trafficking victims in a Burmese call center.
China's already erected thousands of kilometers of border fence to mitigate the issue.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
China's relative advantages must be reaching their zenith, given demographics and the resurgence of neo-industrial policy.
My understanding is the opposite, that rates of change favor the mainland. Taiwan and America are already highly developed without much room to grow, and also with far smaller absolute numbers of talented human capital. The longer time goes on, the easier it would be to wage war.
That fits with all sabre-rattling and state visits that started about ten years ago. In 2010 China and Taiwan were signing trade pacts. By 2014 there was a likely attempted color revolution in Hong Kong. In Taiwan there was the Sunflower Movement.
It's not in the mainland's interest for such things to happen. They wanted the trade pact that the Sunflower Movement occupied the legislature to block.
There sure were a lot of opposition movements furthering American interests in 2014. We also saw them in Ukraine and Venezuela.
I'll also add another scenario in case of war that's more akin to the Sudetanland. The RoC is more than just Taiwan, and some of their territory is closer to mainland China than Martha's Vineyard is to Massachusetts. The Kinmen islands are a bridgable distance from Fujian province, just a couple of miles. The PLA shelled these islands with ground-based artillery in the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis.
You'd take those first just to see how the enemy reacts, no?
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
Give it a week and we'll have new polling that shows if this event moved opinions at all. Hopefully they ask specifically about whether the verdict changed their opinion and in what direction so we don't miss one direction of movement being netted out by another.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
They're red and they really don't like Biden after he bought into the dumb "border patrol agents on horseback whipping refugees at the border" media narrative, and then promised to hold people accountable.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
Had they paid for the story and then published it would it have been a contribution for Trump's opponent?
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
I was curious how the prosecutor even came to get those private books. He convened a grand jury that subpoenaed Trump's accountants for tax and business records, Trump sought to quash the subpoena with assertions of Presidential immunity, and it was adjudicated by the Supreme Court and not squashed. Aside: the decision here has some interesting history I'd never heard of before, with President Jefferson apparently engaging in a bit of lawfare against Aaron Burr.
Not being a lawyer, I was surprised that apparently the bar is very low for what a grand jury can subpoena, just about anything short of a "fishing expedition" is allowed. Do they even need to call their shots like in billiards, or can they start with the idea that there's one specific crime, and end up charging something completely different? Or do they even need a specific crime to investigate?
I've tried to find the reason that this grand jury was convened and can't find anything official. I found one report on a Manhattan grand jury that said "It is unclear what assets Manhattan District Attorney’s office will be investigating specifically," but I don't know if that's even the same grand jury that led to the falsifying business records charge. The indictment itself doesn't have any identifier like date the grand jury was convened.
So, how is one to judge whether the subpoena was a fishing expedition or not?
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
The emails weren't merely deleted, her staffers destroyed electronics with hammers.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
Curious if that’s actually a large constituency and not just a handful of columnists.
NewCharlesInCharge
1yr ago
There’s no prescription on where the oath be taken. It could hypothetically be the Chief Justice answering a collect call from prison.
I think if Biden were in Kennedy's place when the Joint Chiefs wanted to get belligerent or even use nukes against the commies, there's a very good chance that the nukes would have flown.
What does the man so no to?
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