BANNED USER: Ban extended for arguing in edits
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User ID: 4089
Banned by: @Amadan
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26d ago
I replied above before saw you comment. I think this is a generalized problem of message boards with 2 fault points.
- In this case easy to be more specific but likely forgot. You can make 2-3 assumptions on his meaning. “Fentanyl” DD. “Some classification of hard” DD. “Everything” illegal. My guess is 1 or 2.
- The full list of exception and complexity is fairly complicated and you need to use a simplified argument so every debate isn’t a 20 min to read full manifesto.
(1) you can fix by being a better writer (I am fairly bad writer). (2) doesn’t have a solution especially for readers not familiar with the subject
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26d ago
Just to clarify. Atleast in my Overton window drug dealer needs to refer to “fentanyl” drug dealer in the US context because that shit kills a lot of people. I would be open to having discussions on other drugs but that is the only area where I think the costs/benefit is extremely in favor of harsh treatment. And that’s regardless of the law but just from a human moral reasoning position that selling a product that kills 100k people a year when they are young just isn’t a way to make money. Selling cocaine to rich kids going to ELEVEN I can view morally as much more of just making a buck even though it’s illegal. People don’t die because they did a line of real coke. They might die doing cocaine for 20 years.
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26d ago
At some point the facts in a case actually point to the people involved of doing the crime. And people who did the crime should be punished for the crime.
I haven’t looked into all the evidence of the case but this does fit my mental model of this sounds likely. Someone did already plead guilty in this case so they have testimony. FIT is in NYC and seems to be mostly for rich girls. A 19 year old white girl is extremely unlikely to be directly dealing with the Mexican Cartel being in fentanyl and is the dealer. My mental model of a 19 year old rich white girl is that it sounds very plausible that they buy cocaine.
At some point you do have to have a realistic model of the world and reward the good guy and punish the bad guy. We can’t always be the girl is always lying and the guy is innocent etc. I guess you can disagree with my logic that drug dealer is likely guilty but don’t actually believe that and why?
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26d ago
Yes sociology studies have mostly proven to have limited value. My guess is because p-hacking is easy and publish or perish in academia is largely true so you have intense pressure to do some p-hacking and writing commentary that sounds truish. With 10’s of thousands of social science academics there just aren’t enough new true things to discover.
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26d ago
The underlying psychology of hazing is likely to mimic an aspect of war. Basically training for war and we have a real evolutionary advantage for soldiers to feel brotherhood with their fellow soldiers. Sometimes in war it’s advantageous for a soldier to do things bad for their own health that benefits the group.
Therefore going thru painful hazing with your new frat friends helps you develop a feeling of being “brothers” or basically family from going thru the experience together.
I would still say it’s mostly stupid in the modern context…….but things usually don’t exists unless they fulfill a real benefit.
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26d ago
To clarify I am talking about people caught with fentanyl but ideally dealing it for execution. In this specific case we have a dead body as one of the girls died. So this isn’t just a female accusation….we have a dead body + friend saying they ordered cocaine (and likely true FIT = rich girl school. They do coke not fentanyl). This isn’t just a girl claiming a guy gave her fentanyl.
For fentanyl use we have such a huge amount of users who die from the product that if we execute some people caught with possession who were only addicts and we’re not dealers then we have a significant margin of error where we kill a few users for possession. It’s less now but we were running 100k+ fent deaths a year.
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26d ago
We don’t?
The powerful - US - is never going to sacrifice its interests to the UN or whatever rules the US creates to boost legitimacy. Those rules will only apply 90% of the time, but then be completely ignored the 10% of the time when US interests disagrees with the rules.
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26d ago
Some chicken or egg here right? Vets use to do things like treat livestock and now do little dogs. Did that change because of the gendering or did the job change and then gender ratios changed? Tough to know.
I did think biology ratios were more extreme but AI is telling me 66% female and my guess was over 90% now. Maybe some of this is being a primary path for med school. In biology though my opinion would be it’s one of the most interesting times to be in biology as AI unlocks capabilities to create treatments that were impossible before. I think AI likely unlocks a lot more biology than physics in the medium term.
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27d ago
The short answer is we don’t. India I recognize has a lot of sub-populations that only reproduce within caste. So it’s actually hundreds of different bell-curves within India.
For a message board discussion you can’t write a book every time but need to make simplifying arguments. We can’t debate novels until we all had brain implants and can read 400 pages in a second.
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27d ago
Revealed preferences has some similarities to Chesterton fence in that it’s giving you information that a behavior or rule might have a purpose. In this case it signifies majority of girls actually like and enjoy having frats. I think revealed preferences is often correct except with some limitations when you can make legitimately addiction arguments.
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27d ago
Yes I do agree a lot of the mtf is about getting to not be male anymore and all the hate. Not sure on what % but I certainly think a significant part of the rise in trannies is coming because of the men are bad culture.
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27d ago
Part of the issue is you only see the stories that are bad in the news and not the day to day life.
Night life of course becomes co-ed, but during the day and week it’s mostly men.
I think my school did it better where we had dorms that were male or female and you were required to stay 3 years and about 40% stayed all 4 years. They still did a lot of frat type things like organizing dances and events. I think it’s better because the assignment were random so you didn’t have only the cool kids in one frat and then lower ranked frats. Model wise I think this is better. And even Seniors who moved off campus would interact with the dorm they had gone to.
Hazing is stupid. But that’s a small part of frats and I don’t think all even do it.
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27d ago
I think within stem biology has been very female coded while electrical engineering etc is male coded so of the 20% most are in biology related.
The Rules Based Order was always a mirage. It had just enough legitimacy and teeth to appear that the strong and weak had certain standards to follow, but it existed in a world of True US hegemony so the US could give crumbs to “rules” while maintaining such thorough dominating power that they could step in with overwhelming force when they want to.
It’s the same thing I say about Free Speech. When it’s no true threat you allow it to happen. A professor at Wesleyan spouting some communists stuff in the 1980’s doesn’t matter. When communists have a legitimate chance of taking your country you executing a bunch of them. Or you end up losing and die yourself. The best recent example that free speech is fake is after Trump 1 and MAGA became a real threat the left tried as hard as they could to end MAGA free speech. They just didn’t have enough political power to kill it. Power is real.
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27d ago
The solution to America’s rape crisis is to…..ban male only spaces. I will declare that I believe in male only spaces. I believe in female only spaces. I think both sexes have significant psychological differences that they both tend to find benefits to have some organizations that are segregated by sex. Both sides socialize differently when segregated and it has real benefits.
My broad understanding is that when male only places begin to allow female membership they tend to disappear a decade later. I read an interesting paper in the last year that when a college major gets about something like 30-50% female it then quickly becomes 100% female. Biology did this. Veterinary science did this. I think Law will survive but it’s going thru this process now.
The other major development on college rape crisis is an incident at FIT. In this case 19 year old drug dealer gave the two FIT students fentanyl while claiming it was cocaine. Then proceeded to rape them. One of them died. Many posting on Twitter leave the part out that this was brown drug dealers doing the raping and really bad stuff and show this as evidence of bad smart male rich kids.
I am 100% in favor of executing these drug dealers. Also 100% in favor of executing anyone selling fentanyl as it’s really bad stuff. I am also in favor of deporting and denaturalizing basically everyone of these kids background. This is sort of an interesting case where the left can use it as evidence of the bad stuff they claim is happening by leaving out details and then the right can come in while adding details and saying we have policy proposals to deal with this issue.
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27d ago
Supposedly another AI hedge fund ran by a 20 something blew up again. All of the AI funds seem to trade to be a trillionaire or homeless. The thing is if AI works it’s likely long term deflationary as labor costs go to zero so you don’t even need trillions. You just need to be the poorest rich person that can afford some status goods like a house in Palm Beach.
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27d ago
You are still doing math wrong on this. Most of Africa is 80 IQ. The US African population is average IQ of 85 but that’s 30% on average white DNA. A 2 standard deviation move gets you to 110 IQ. That’s 2.1% of a bell curve. So your 150 million is suddenly reduced to 30 million. Though I’m also assuming the same standard deviation as white populations which is about 15 IQ points. This may be a smaller standard deviation.
The best evidence for Africa not being able to maintain any advanced systems is the real world. They haven’t maintained any advanced systems.
Can you point to just 1 African who’s done any advanced science? Only one I come up with is Robert F Smith whose PE firm was one of 3 that developed a model for taking bloated software companies and firing a lot of people to improve margins.
Also it would take a lot of time to build your “smart people” city to focus talent before they could even get off the ground doing stuff.
You probably are correct that Africa would need to focus there talent in one city. It seems when you have mixed low-IQ with high IQ populations it harms the high Iq peoples production. This explains a lot of the lack of productivity in India and Brazil.
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27d ago
They supposedly have 6-7 total. So yes they would have limited capabilities and probably little ability to replace tankers after parts need replaced.
Also I’m not sure if it’s hard to take out a tanker over France. Even WW2 planes can likely take them down if they lack fighter support both ways. Even with fighter support if you can get 10 WW2 fighters in the air they can likely take it down. Which would likely be an early goal of European powers to cut Africas ability to hit Europe.
You think modern warplanes can be made by 10k high IQ people? There’s like thousands of parts in a modern airplane. They would have access to zero of the current international supply chain.
Plus weapons systems. You need microchips for modern airplanes. Jet engines. Of note China can’t exactly make modern jet engines. You need guys who understand aerodynamics. Materials engineers. Metal stamping. This project is 100% chance out of the reach of Africa.
Nuclear though I do think is easier once you have access to nuclear physics. Iran(has a smart caste) and S Africa (small white population) achieved this. Conceivably you could design a bomb that can go on their existing modern aircraft’s and helped for distance by their 6 refueling aircrafts to reach a lot of Europe to deliver bombs. ICBMS are basically out of the question for Africa. So for the nuclear end game Europe now with their fully intact group of Jewish nuclear scientists would have the bomb by around 1944. Germany had some rockets in WW2 so could conceivably be nuking S and N Africa by about 1944. Supposedly all of S Africas nuclear scientists have died but I guess it’s conceivable they could get a new supply chain up and running in 3 years. So they could win the nuclear path.
I just want to point out that if you think 10k high IQ people can make modern planes then you have no understanding of the technological challenges in making planes.
All the Jewish infrastructure that created 35% of Nobels was basically non-existent in 1945 when those guys started to get born. They were mostly holocausted then.
The entire premise behind this Twitter fight is Africa doesn’t have 150 million smart people. The average IQ in America of Africans is considered to be 85 and those Africans have significant Caucasian genetic component. So pure African Iq would be 80. 1 standard deviation of IQ has been estimated at around 15. To design advanced weapons you would need to be 4 standard deviations above average or in the top 99.9937%. That’s approximately 1 in 20,000 people. That gives Africa maybe 10k people to develop everything. Jews have an estimated IQ of 115. A little less than 2 standard deviation intelligence gets you to advanced weapons building intelligence. About the top 95% of the population. Grok is telling me European Jewish population in 1939 was 9.6 million. At advanced weapons building IQ level the Jews alone provide about 480k people of sufficient intelligence. Nobel Prizes have been around 35% Jewish. So let’s say other Europeans have the same amount of advanced weapon building IQ. That gives Europe like 1 million people IQ >140.
Per year you have 100x the scientific ability In Europe than Africa. So a tech gap of 80 years actually sounds very feasible for the Europeans to close since they have a 100x high IQ population advantage.
And 10k high IQ Africans would need to be heavily utilized just to keep the existing weapons working.
And this is very rough math. The gap wouldn’t be quite this broad as the racists would view S Africa as having a higher rate of geniuses. And North Africa being more Arab also a high rate.
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28d ago
The racists part is one side doesn’t think Africa getting their own industry up is possible. That is the underlying assumption between the partisan camps. And S Africa’s talented population is too small to run things.
I’ve been thinking about posting this one but haven’t because yes it’s kind of racists so too much for main thread but too cultural war for fun thread. To clarify the question is Europe without US but with Russia. Assumption wise is its win or die. So Europe would get all the Jews who left who ended up inventing nuclear bombs. But Africa gets S Africa which I’m fairly certain in an Africa versus Europe war S Africa and there ability to build the bomb people all side with Europe.
In conventional war I am going with Europe but it would mostly be a Cold War for a long time. I’ve seen two things to convince me of this:
- The high tech planes Africa has mostly don’t have range to bomb prime Europe
- There are like 6 landing crafts in Africa so the early tank advantages means they can’t land the US tanks they have in Europe
Other issues are like Africa only supplies 2/3 of their food supply I’ve seen so internal riots on food are an issue.
So either it’s a race to nukes or neither side has the ability to invade the other early. And eventually Europe catches up on tech and crushes Africa.
Maybe Europe can win quicker with meat assaults against modern tech if they are willing to take massive casualties. Or 30 special ops guys can cause internal coups once food supplies run out.
The initial rounds I think are mostly both sides being better at defense.
That’s my logic.
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28d ago
Lucky Palmer had a good point that state use of its ultimate monopoly on violence should be televised so citizens see the full extent of state power. I don’t think most normies read enough to see this argument and the initial take is it’s bad.
It’s a lot like Ned Stark’s the man who passes the judgement should swing the sword type argument which basically every viewer of GOT found compelling. Also kind of Aztec bloodthirsty but I think both frames work.
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28d ago
33% is basically as high as you can get now in American politics. We don’t have a uniform culture anymore but a fractured culture so the days of high approval rating are over. Early in a new term people get like 50%, but it seems apparent now that everyone’s going to go down to 30’s once people have things to blame on them.
We aren’t an 85% white Christian nation anymore that you can maintain high favorability doing what that uniculture wants.
“ The problem is that many women who are actually raped don't report,”
My gut says approximately 0% of rape rape goes unreported.
It’s the rape that many people don’t consider rape that goes unreported. For example I don’t believe a husband can rape their wife. But by US law they can go.
Black grab grabbing a white girl and dragging her behind a building a raping here has a high report rate.
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