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9hr ago
I include psychological costs of people who are good people who are getting profile because they are black and blacks kill a lot even though that black may be a very good person. I get that
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9hr ago
I see my current views as the bad guy. Maybe I’m wrong but i assume most of ICE knows they are the bad guy. How else can you deport a 5 year old kid. We are the bad guy.
On Masks. I don’t think the left wants ICE to unmasks for actual operational reasons. I think it’s because ICE is doing something we would all agree is mean and a bad thing but also necessary. It’s not nice to deport people who probably are economic migrants who just want to be richer.
That being said long-term I do not think Amerindians will assimilate into traditional American culture. They just don’t have the group level IQ to do it. So I support deportations.
Kicking them out of the country is deeply un-American as it both feels equivalent to turning away Jews during WW2 and Mary and Joseph being turned away from the inn. And probably countless other text. We just don’t do that.
I would put the desire by the right to not take off mask as: 50% legitimate fear of leftist target 50% yes we are the bad guys and don’t want to our faces.
For the left the reverse %: 50% we don’t think people want to show their faces being the bad guys so they will stop. 50% out activists will target ICE
On the Libertarian to fascists pipeline I submit Jeremy Kauffman on twitter. Of the New Hampshire Free State movement who posts he supports a lot of authoritarian things as a libertarian. I think his recent thoughts summarize to “if we don’t protect the shire the shire will not exists”
Voting patterns support this. https://x.com/tadgh_dc/status/2019016043025289503?s=46
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14hr ago
Fair enough. This is more of a costs-benefit argument. Your initial argument was it’s wrong because it’s wrong. I pointed out that big racial differences in crime are “true” and you can get big efficiency gains by utilizing that data.
El Salvador seems overall happier they did profiling and just locked all the people with gang tattoos up.
Would you agree now if you can save X amount of lives or reduce Y amount of bad things that profiling is a proper tactic? It’s not just wrong because it’s wrong?
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16hr ago
I have to be honest I don’t understand how Epstein had so many people in his network. Musk is a very big fish. Epstein doesn’t have a tech company or any known business. Plus pedo rap sheet. How does he even get Musks email?
If I had to pick 3 people to have dinner with it “of recent vintage” I guess I would pick Trump, Musks, and Epstein. It’s like a video game where everyone else is a NPC but those three are everywhere.
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16hr ago
Yes this is true. I simplified with just spot the Muslim and profile them at the airport. It seems like the Israelis have a system that works.
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16hr ago
Your argument basically breaks down to just saying it’s wrong. A very typical leftist response of the variety “these are human rights so we can’t debate these things”.
Since racial profiling works and is very efficient at reducing crime or terrorism that means it’s a “true” model of the world.
I think it’s very hard to describe something as both “wrong” and “true”.
Because racial profiling “works” it also means that you are willing to allow some obvious bad things to happen if we don’t do it - more young black men killed by black men, a TSA that pats down Asian girls, more expensive ICE operations, etc. how can you describe something as wrong if it reduces bad things in the world?
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16hr ago
ICE should 100% be deporting illegals who pop up as witnesses. The entire point of ICE is to make it so illegals have no rights an self-deport.
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1d ago
Racism works. It’s efficient.
How was it efficient for 2 decades 70 year old ladies had to take their shoes off at airports when we could have just racial profiled every Muslim male for additional screening? Then everyone could leave for the airport 30 minutes later because airport security did not exists for them. And here’s the thing about racial profiling it’s better for Muslim men too. Since they are about 1% of US airport passengers they would have a security guard screen that thoroughly for 10 minutes which still saves them 20 minutes of their day.
Suicidal empathy like you described worked as an argument 5 years ago. Today people just want a society that functions well.
Racial profiling is good because it improves net happiness in society.
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1d ago
But what is gained by showing their face? The only thing is it changes is people know who they are. Why does that matter for making an arrest?
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1d ago
It’s not obviously unacceptable. I’ll fine with spending a day a month in ICE lock-up while they verify my identity. I’ll gladly do my time to help ICE out.
I would gladly wear a masks if I thought it would prevent COVID or get a vaccine if I thought they worked. Or lock myself at home to stop the spread (I actually locked myself at home a week before any lockdowns began).
It’s unacceptable if you think the mission is wrong or would fail. It’s not unacceptable if you think it passes costs-benefit analysis.
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1d ago
Immigration is a massive threat. To humanity and the US not a “minor threat, at best”
Why do you think it matters if 7 year old non-criminal gets deported by a guy whose face he can see or a guy in a masks?
As an American Citizen I feel no threat by ICE. Worse case they grab me for a day then verify I am a citizen. I do not care if I can see their face.
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1d ago
De-masking is obviously a poison pill in this environment. I do agree with you that in a good society they shouldn’t wear a masks. We do not live in a good society. They will be targeted by opposition. It’s a less extreme version of saying Mexican military should demasks and have badges when targeting the Sinaloa Cartel. Obviously Sinaloa would execute entire Mexican military families. De-masked ICE likely see a handful of executions and a lot of annoyance in their everyday life.
We already have checkpoints by the opposition looking for ICE in Minneapolis.
If ICE became a legitimate paramilitary organization with 100k members in some random Arkansas town then we can demask. Where all their families live on a base.
“ MAGA wants you to think of the median illegal as a rapist, murderer and gang member, while SJ wants to think of them as a 6yo wearing a Pokemon hat.”
Maybe the median MAGA wants you to think this but I feel like the median MAGA has instincts that the intellectual MAGA could express better and with data. Assimilation doesn’t happen. Twitter recently had a thread showing Italian American have a 60% higher criminality rate than Scandinavian Americans. Ellis Island was a long time ago. I am Italian American. We are different. If Nancy Pelosi wasn’t constrained by a larger majority her politics wouldn’t be New Deal it would be Evita Peron since Italians are the dominant force in Argentina. https://x.com/garettjones/status/2018766833134751869?s=46
I came across some writings by Wang Hunig whose basically the chief ideologue and theorists for the CCP and when he has a quote that struck me, “ all political power runs downstream from shared values, culture, and tradition”. Then I bought his book and will work on it this weekend.
I don’t believe Amerindians will assimilate into America. We have multigenerations now an education gaps remain quite large. Criminality is a little more mixed. I don’t believe you can bring in a population group whose descendants will be stuck in a servant class and not change the culture and politics of a country. If they are non-competitive for becoming elites in a country then they will vote for communism.
I think Indian Brahmins and Asians are more mixed. The current debate seems to be on striver culture. And heritage Americans seem to think the country has the right amount of striving. Certain immigrant groups strive less than whites and certain groups strive more than whites. For people like me America had the perfect amount of striving so why would I want it to change.
MAGA doesn’t want the other side to believe every deportation is a rapists. They want the other side to be racists like us. It’s a dog whistle. They want the other side to realize that if you import a lot of Amerindian your country will turn into Brazil or Mexico. Mexico now has a shared culture with its people but all the rich people are European or Lebanese. Their servant class is brown.
And yes my background is a typical urbanite with a lot of highly filtered black, brown, and yellow friends who sometimes play the token Nazi role. The elitists city of highly selected globalists can function. I don’t think it works once you get past the top 5%.
I tend to believe America’s original sin is the primary reason we developed suburban culture and we can primarily only build walkable urban environments in areas with extreme wealth is because of an intense desire to prevent the social dysfunction in schools and public spaces associated with our Origional Sin. To this day any progressive with money who flies all the correct flags will do anything in their power to make sure the bottom 50% of blacks can’t be in their neighborhood or in their schools. If America didn’t have black people private schools would basically disappear.
Centuries later group differences and favoritism never disapear. Bias in juries to favor your own race still exists. A recent interview with an OJ Simpson juror said they voted him innocent despite thinking he was guilty because of Rodney King. A black man can butcher two white people and a black juror won’t convict him. The more you start to see that group differences between populations that evolved in different areas are permanent the more anti-immigration you become.
What MAGA wants you to believe is to be racists like us.
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1d ago
Risks isn’t necessarily just leverage. Something can be low risks and traded at 30x leverage (a 9 year US treasury versus short 10 year treasury arb) or can be high risks with no leverage (an oil exploration company). Owning SAAS since Jan 1 unlevered is down 25% YTD for example.
The issue he’s having is he’s thinking in terms of wealth as dollars in a bank account. I am thinking terms of total lifetime consumption. If housing tech made housing 90% cheaper my lifetime consumption of housing would skyrocket. My net worth would collapse
I think people are wealthier if their housing consumption is everyone life in a Saudi Prince style palace because housing tech breakthrough is a wealthier society than we all live in show box apartments that costs $30 million.
It’s a more generalizable issue with true futurists AI dreams. If AI can do human labor for essentially free then you get unlimited supply of goods and services but wealth would go to zero in dollar terms.
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3d ago
Ok so you can agree you would be wealthier except for a technical detail of the US financial system
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3d ago
Assume your debt is like credit card debt and transferable. You would still have zero loss and be richer in terms of what you can buy.
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4d ago
How are you getting poorer if you make the same income but we invented some housing tech where housing has a lower asset value? Now you have an existing mortgage. Your job is very secure. You love your job. You love your community an never plan to leave.
Literally nothing changes in your consumption before or after we invented this new tech that causes massive asset value deflation in housing. It’s just that the new person buying a house pays less. You can actually not increase your consumption basket and buy a second home because they are much cheaper.
This happened with televisions. I am watching television right now on a 15 year old tv. It was expensive then. Now I could buy a 3x larger tv at 20% of the price. I still enjoy watching television on my old tv that is now cheap.
I am obviously wealthier today because we invented cheap tv technology. In my Milton Friedman permanent income hypothesis I likely thought I would spend $10k during the rest of my life on televisions. Now I expect to spend maybe $3k.
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4d ago
It’s actually very easy to create more land. Tokyo keeps growing and being desirable and housing costs haven’t exploded. The big thing that makes land for housing desirable are the public services. If you make it safe and provide transportation options you can just create more land.
Chicago for example has a neighborhood with all the characteristics of places with expensive housing. The University of Chicago is surrounded by very cheap land. At one point in history this was a very desirable neighborhood. It’s cheap because they shoot people next door. If you made it safer and improved public transportation then it would literally be building new land in Chicago that is highly desirable.
I think this is the most extreme version in America but I think every major city has some form of these issues that would unlock a large amount of land if you just fixed the provision on public goods. Extending subways in NYC would unlock a lot of land.
Some of these issues come down to not being allowed to do explicit segregation. People don’t want to build better trains because then the wrong people would enter the neighborhood.
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4d ago
Not as important now. Lennar home prices have collapsed. I think I’ve even seen $173/ft now on new construction. Here is a chart of their home selling prices.
It’s $365k now. People probably aren’t buying tiny homes now when the standard product is down to this.
Actually agree a lot. Wealth of nations and realistically for individuals is how much stuff you can buy. Things getting cheaper make you wealthier.
But we are past for the most part material wealth and people care a lot about status. Owning $10m home that’s 2k sq feet feels wealthier when everyone else you know lives in a 500 sq ft studio than having a 10k sq ft home but everyone has as a 10k sq home.
Status of course does matter. Girls will sleep with you because you are richer than others. And that makes people feel richer than if the can increase consumption 10x but others have more.
What I am teasing out by being autistic is status wealth versus material wealth. Most people if they had to choose between $50m in their background in today’s world versus being bottom quintile number in back account but they can afford anything they can dream of would choose the former.
We are the bad guy. I’ve accepted it. Deporting a 6 year old Ecuadorian and his family is a bad thing to do.
I’ve looked at the math. It’s smart to do. But make no mistake we are the bad guy.
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