Porean
1yr ago
In all likelihood, you'd need something like 8x3090, but that's about as hard to trace as a stealth weed growbox in a basement. Inference, I expect, also won't be feasible on normal consumer machines, so it'll incentivize some stealthy cloud computing, maybe very small-scale.
I'll bet against that. It's supposed to be an Imagen-like model leveraging T5-XXL's encoder with a small series of 3 unets. Given that each unet is <1B, this is no worse than trying to run Muse-3B locally.
Porean
1yr ago
My question was, albeit unclearly, not about "why would this be a bad thing", but rather: Conditional on the West recognising this as a true and obviously bad thing, what could even be done? "Just stop digging the hole", as reactionaries will know, is an incredibly difficult task at times.
But @crake has answered that question well.
Porean
1yr ago
Start a substack. Please. Perfection is the enemy of good, and you are really good.
Porean
1yr ago
So, how do you find something that gives you energy to get out of the bed everyday?
Priorities, commitments, obgliation. You have to do something and the pain will be greater if you don't. "Time to go work in the shit factory."
Porean
1yr ago
One possible model of the situation is that AI will be so disruptive that it should be thought of as being akin to an invading alien force.
I agree we'd be better off if everyone thought that way, but the way I see it is that anyone that defects from Team Humanity has a shit ton of power to gain in the short term. To extend your analogy, the "pro-alien weirdos" would also be getting Alien arms and supplies. And if it's not team Blue or team Red, I'm sure team CCP can pick up the slack.
Porean
1yr ago
I predict advertising will become far more ubiquitous with the rise of Dall-E and similar image producing AIs. The cost of creating extremely compelling, beautiful ads will plummet, and more and more of our daily visual space will become filled with non stop advertising.
I predict it won't, honestly. You currently a 20B parameter model to generate pictures with readable text, and then you need a marketing expert to filter for the best generated outputs, anyway. Maybe a year from now, Google will train a static ad generator based on their AdSense data, but those are still just static ads. They don't perform that well. You need animated visuals at the very least, or a video if possible, and that kind of technology just isn't here yet -- not to mention how expensive it'd be.
30s scripted ads on YouTube are not going to come from AI within the next 1-2 years. Maybe 5. But by the time text2YouTubeAd comes out, we'll have far more problems than more attractive advertisements.
Porean
1yr ago
The paradigm and reason for party allegiances is not equality and certainly not about government handouts, considering how every citizen of their home country sidesteps the government to black markets where exchanges are made at better rates. The current Democrat party is actually damaging their bottom line through their fiscal policy.
Call me skpetical. What makes you confident it has a strong impact on voter habits? You have presented a theory -- a possible factor of influence -- but no reason to believe it has any more predictive power than any other explanation of voter preferences.
Porean
1yr ago
Why are the majority programmers so enthusiastic about machines that can code but not artists?
Because they aren't. They're collectively deluding themselves into believing in the «soul» and that programming will never be automated by AI. Just like certain artists are.
I am a programmer. OpenAI scares me. I'm putting every effort I've got into the Grind, because I think the industry's due for a phenomenal crash that'll leave the majority in the dumps. You are free to disagree.
Porean
1yr ago
Bad idea, there. Knowing their username means you get to filter them from day 1.
Porean
1yr ago
I think the migration just failed, and I plan on doing some data scraping / analytics this weekend to demonstrate it.
Is there something misleading with the way I phrased my comment? I don't understand why multiple people have succeeded in reading "programmers will be completely replaced by AI" into my words.
And this isn't a nitpicking thing. It is an extremely important distinction; I see this in the same way as the Pareto Principle. The AI labs are going to quickly churn out models good enough to cover 95% of the work the average software engineer does, and the programming community will reach a depressive state where everyone's viciously competing for that last 5% until true AGI arrives.
Your first paragraph misses how hard it is for human programmers to achieve those things, if it is even possible under current circumstances (find me a program that can acquire farmland & construct robots for it & harvest everything & prepare meals from raw materials). Even hiring an army of programmers (AI or no) would not satisfy the preconditions necessary for getting your own food supply, namely having an actual physical presence. You need to step beyond distributed human-level abilities into superhuman AI turf for that to happen.
Porean
1yr ago
The main concern here is that we're headed for a future where all media and all human interaction is generated by AI simulations, which would be a hellish dystopia. We don't want things to just feel good - we want to know that there's another conscious entity on the other end of the line.
I can see this as a Future Problem, but right now the "conscious entity on the other end" are simply prompt writers. There is a sense of community to be gained from indulging and working on AI generation together. I think it is misleading to apply the bugman/we-will-be-in-pod argument to text-to-image tools, because new means of human interaction are forming as a result of it.
Also, some of us just hate the majority of conscious entities and are happier with what simulations we can get. This obviously doesn't apply to you or Vaush, but I wonder what brings you both to so viciously condemn the estranged, the alienated, the anti-social.
Porean
1yr ago
I've yet to see anyone blow up their life with (legal) porn,
What kind of observation would qualify, to you? Does blowing your life savings on OnlyFans count? Missing a national exam because you fell asleep after a jack at dawn? Ending up arrested for molestation because you thought it'd be as easy?
I don't even care about any of these, because they're edge cases. But when people are willing to condemn all kinds of behaviours except masturbation, I just don't get it.
Porean
1yr ago
I am not aware of a single high-quality AI image of two people having sex.
This does exist, but you are right to point out it is exceedingly difficult to make.
Given the volume of responses affirming the failures of generated porn, I'm realising my tastes must've bubbled me from dissent. I mostly consume images with only 1 figure involved && this has evidently biased my thinking.
Porean
1yr ago
This list will probably make it a lot easier for rDrama trolls (among others) to fit in, which is a bit unfortunate. At the same time, this glossary of terms is really accurate and well-cited, and I cannot help but admire it for that.
Porean
1yr ago
and some modest computation capability (say, a cluster of 3090s or a commitment to spend a moderately large sum on lambda.labs)
This is not sufficient. The rig as described by neonbjb is only 192GB of vram; fine-tuning an LM with 130B params (in the best possible case of GLM-130B; the less said about the shoddy performance of OPT/BLOOM, the better) requires somewhere in the ballpark of ~1.7TB of vram (this is at least 20+ A100s), and that's on batch size 1 with gradient checkpointing and mixed precision and 8bit adam and fused kernels without kv cache and etc. If you don't have an optimised trainer ready to go (or god forbid, you're trying distributed training), you should expect double the requirements.
The cost of that isn't too bad, of course. Maybe $25 bucks an hour on LL, any machine learning engineer can surely afford that. The larger doubt I have is that any of this will take place.
Porean
1yr ago
That does nothing to dispute the claim that supporting pro life policies are costing republican votes. Ditto for basically everyone in the parent comment tree. I don't understand how so many motteposters are conflating "There's lots of pro-life people" (true) with "Being pro-life will make it easier to win elections" (do you believe this?)
Porean
1yr ago
Because of course every single woman is pro-abortion, of course a Republican-voting guy is not going to know any women who might be pro-life, of course no woman picked at random in the USA is going to be "I think the Supreme Court decision was great".
Are you reading the same article as me?
Redd: And by the way, I do talk to my female friends about abortion. Abortion is a problem for Republicans. That’s why I’m not sure if we’re going to win small or win big. But pretty much everything else lines up on our side.
Porean
1yr ago
Yes indeed, that todo link should've been replaced with a link to a transcript of Emad's recent Interview.
I failed to find the transcript in my browser history, so I've relinked the video in its place.
Correct. My suggestion just makes that motivation obvious.
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