Quantumfreakonomics
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User ID: 324
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
I think it varies state-by-state. Here is what voter data Pennsylvania says you can get for $20.00:
PA Full Voter Export
As provided by 25 Pa.C.S. Section 1404(b)(1) (relating to Public Information Lists), as well as the SURE Regulations at 4 Pa. Code Section 184.14(b) (relating to Public Information Lists), the Department of State will provide the Full Voter Export List to requestors.
This version of the Public Information List is a full export of all voters in the county and contains the following fields: voter ID number, name, sex, date of birth, date registered, status (i.e., active or inactive), date status last changed, party, residential address, mailing address, polling place, date last voted, all districts in which the voter votes (i.e., congressional, legislative, school district, etc.), voter history, and date the voter’s record was last changed.
The cost of the Full Voter Export list is 20.00. Upon successful payment an email will be sent to the provided email address.
This data is current as of 11/04/2024 and will be refreshed on 11/11/2024 at midnight
Why can some election integrity guy on Twitter not post TODAY the cryptographic hash of a pseudorandom algorithm that he will use to pull a sample of registered Pennsylvania voters who cast a ballot in the 2024 election to manually check for dead people? This wouldn’t be like, super easy, but surely someone out of the 25% of the country who thinks Trump won in 2020 has both the skills and the will to do it.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Harris, because we'll get as much turnout from the living-impaired voter demographic as necessary to ensure she wins.
Granting the possibility that it would be easy to cast ballots in the name of dead people, wouldn’t this type of fraud be trivial to prove after the fact? Who voted in any given election is public information. Select a random cohort of voters, then check if they are still alive. Did anyone do this for 2020?
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
I finally got Robinhood event contracts working and put down a trivial amount of money on Harris. I find it hard to believe that after January 6, Trump is more popular than ever. I have a feeling that the movement reflects how pollsters are adjusting for their big misses in 2016 and 2020, not a change in sentiment on the ground.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
The area I live is pretty split down the middle. It's quite nice actually. There is a general understanding that it's bad manners to bring up politics with people you don't know well.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Japanese all-you-can-eat barbecue changed my life. Gyu-Kaku has solved food. It's over.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Here are two wacky ideas for buying elections:
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Start a buisiness in an emerging, not-yet-regulated industry. Do all the textbook Silicon Valley valuation-pumping capital-raising stuff, but shove all the money into as many federal elections as possible. Max out the personal limit for every candidate's official campaign of one party, then find a surrogate to do the same for the other party. Hand pick one or two primary candidates in out-of-the-way races and pump their SuperPAC to the moon. Use your positioning as the politician-favored firm in the industry to raise even more money. Of course, the key is to only use investor capital for this, not customer accounts that you happen to have custody over. This is surprisingly cheap. You could do it for about $100 million.
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Buy a major social media company. Gut the employees and bring in your own people. Change the algorithm in clever ways that will shake out to favor ideas of your own preferred politics. Unfortunately, this is much more expensive, estimated to be about $40 billion even in favorable circumstances.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
I am surprised that opposing the euthenasia of animals for questionable human health reasons is obviously read as having a right-wing valence. It was easy to see the angle for the ducks and cats thing in Ohio because it was immigrants (allegedly) doing it, but what the hell does Trump or Kamala have to do with squirrels?
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Consider the possibility that a squirrel living indoors in close proximity to a raccoon would be more likely than wild squirrels to be infected.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
I’m still not convinced that she lied about working at McDonald’s. I think it more likely that she lied on her resume about not working at McDonald’s. Of course, that shows not just ignorance, but shame at being associated with the working classes.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
The point was made on the /r/slatestarcodex subreddit, but I'll repeat it here, that JD Vance got the content of the actual SSC article confused with the millions of "trans is a religion" takes, but remembered Scott's clever title wordplay.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
No? Her flaws are completely different.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
It is entirely possible that I am too election-brained to understand the logic here at the moment, but I am a bit confused at the premise. If there is a relatively large percentage of third party votes in safe blue (or safe red) states, but a very low percentage of third party votes in swing states, literally nobody who matters will be fooled. It will be plainly obvious that voters who have a strong preference for one party over the other, and who could be relied upon to turn out for their preferred side in the event of a close election, are casting meaningless throwaway votes.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
If this is true, why is shoplifting as a societal problem so localized? All of the factors you mention should also apply to Texas, but I have seen exactly one shoplifting event in my entire life. People in LA or San Francisco say they see it every week.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
When I first read this I thought it was a reasonably well thought-out post. It wasn’t until later that I realized that Scott didn’t mention immigration once in the entire essay. There’s a Straussian reading here where Scott personally cares more about his own social standing than HDB civilizational risks, but understands why others would not, leaving the objection open and unrefuted.
I think all the arguments that Scott is being unfair in his specific recounting of Trumps flaws are cope. I’m voting for him anyway because stopping uncontrolled immigration and keeping Rawlsians off the court really are that important.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
The hi-vis vest seals the deal. Blue-collar workers will always side with the manager who isn't above putting on the same PPE that they do.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Suppose Alice is having a picnic at the pond with her parents. Her parents are clumsy eaters, and their plates and utensils get blown into the pond. A local cop sees the trash floating in the pond and asks Alice, “why did you dump your garbage in the pond?” Alice replies, “The only garbage I see floating out there is my parents’.” This is a completely normal way to use possessives in colloquial American English. It’s not the most likely interpretation of what Biden said, but it is a reasonable interpretation.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
It would be trivial to point to a tribe that was wiped out as an example of a successful counterterrorism policy. The question is if it is possible to pacify a people without killing approximately all of them.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Do you actually think that building concentration camps is something you do when you're expecting to negotiate peace with the population you're interning in them?
Im pretty sure this was a big part of US Native American policy. It helped that the population differential was way higher, but people in Santa Fe don’t have to worry about Radical Navajo Terrorism anymore.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
I think that’s what it ultimately boils down to. Trump started his campaign promising to deport illegals. Then there was the Muslim ban. Now Vance is saying that Haitians on Temporary Protected Status are basically illegal and should be deported. The next step is to look into canceling green cards. Then revoking naturalized citizenship. Couple that with relaxing civil-rights laws, and you see where this is going.
Whether or not Trump himself wants to do all these, a sizable chunk of the population does. That is the demographic that attends Trump rallies.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
No. I think if someone threw a match inside they would be able to catch him. My assumption is that this was some kind of delayed chemical reaction that was engineered to take place within one of the envelopes, the kind of thing that takes planning.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
It’s not going to go well for Jewish Americans if we start having ethnic purges. They have a sixth sense for this kind of thing. If Puerto Rico can be a floating pile of trash, so can Brooklyn.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
You can’t count ballots that no longer exist. They’d have to hold the election all over again. Apparently this is a thing that happens.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
Oooh, that’s smart. The evidence is literally destroyed, along with the ballots. Authorities would be able to switch to fire-resistant envelopes if this became a problem, but not until the next election cycle.
Quantumfreakonomics
9mo ago
The media reports on events that happen in New York City differently than they report on events that happen elsewhere. A Trump rally in Michigan or Western Pennsylvania might as well be in American Samoa or Guam. It’s different when Trump brings his ilk to defile Madison Square Garden. There are more Jews than Trump voters in Manhattan. The people who live there don’t even have cars. It probably does feel like Nuremberg to them.
What was the "dem scheme to cheat"? Some clueless immigrant checking the wrong box?
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