RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
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User ID: 317
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Yeah I saw that exact video. It's crazy to see people literally dodging death in HD on the internet.
Mass production is key, Anduril and co keep producing these shiny anime trailers and marketing gear, China puts out these big drone shows where 6,000 are flying in sync like a next level firework show. That's a real demonstration of ability.
At some point container ships are just going to vomit out tens of thousands of flying bombs and make Pearl Harbour look like a joke.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Why do they need to walk?
The air is the natural domain of the robot, as we see in Ukraine. The Russians and Ukrainians have been toying with ground combat robots but they're throwing industrial quantities of aerial drones at eachother. Some explode, some drop bombs, some are wire-guided to bypass electronic warfare, some have jet-engines for long endurance and long range. They have amazing camera zoom, they can pick out targets day and night.
Flying kamikaze drones are very hard to deal with. You can dodge one dropped grenade or club one away with your rifle. But three? Five? You're going to die. These things are cheap. Onboard AI guidance and swarming will make them even more dangerous.
It's only a matter of time before machines take over high-end airpower too. Humans are expensive to train, need all kinds of life support and suffer under g-forces. We were not made to careen around in the upper atmosphere at 9G or above, that's not where our skills lie. We're ground creatures, I bet that walking around and close quarters will be the last domains that fall to AI.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Unfortunately for Mao, the sparrows that he had killed were really important. I think there's a perception effect where the species that come to your attention are usually important in one way or another. Prominence correlates with importance. So you assume that everything is important - but the species that are lost are mostly unimportant and never came to your attention because they were unimportant.
In the same way, I think we romanticize nature and don't realize the impact of what we've done. I've walked through the English countryside, it's quite pleasant. Completely unnatural. It was all forested, then the forests were cut down, marshes were drained, fences and grassland installed and maintained...
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
given the fact that humans have been responsible for the extinction of tens of thousands of species, mostly bugs I think I recall, (not to mention introduced lots of invasive species detrimental to various local environments), why the hell haven't we seen catastrophic impacts to our ecology and agriculture?
I think ecosystems are massively overhyped. Most species aren't needed, there are a few which are really important and the rest are basically window dressing. They've managed to survive and that's about it. Closing 10,000 random businesses would not be nearly as disruptive as shutting down Microsoft or TSMC or Saudi Aramco. It's the same with animals, most of them are just there.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Cyrus died in battle, is that what you're talking about?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Israel routinely kills Hamas and Hezbollah's leaders, they are fully aware that they are in grave danger. Before they got the head of Hamas, they wiped out about 60 of his relatives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ismail_Haniyeh#Killing_of_family_members_by_Israel
Characterizing these guys as grifters is a bit far, they have always had skin in the game. They are true believers. Israel's been trying to assassinate them for years, this is nothing new: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ismail_Haniyeh#Killing_of_family_members_by_Israel
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
That's a pretty cool trick but how is it going to achieve the political goal?
Israel has blown up leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah with bombs and now pagers. They have all these sci-fi ways of killing Iranian scientists, remote controlled machineguns and such.
No war in history has ever been won by assassination. If they want to win militarily they need to actually march in and crush Hezbollah, there's no shortcut. Hamas shows that much. If Russia blew up Zelensky, that wouldn't solve their problems. They have to smash the Ukrainian army until it stops moving, or come to a negotiated peace.
If Israel actually follows this up with an air and ground campaign that blasts through Hezbollah and achieves their surrender or obliteration, that will be really impressive. But if it just leads to more skirmishing with rocket and airstrike exchanges, then what's the point?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
What if they just get grey-zoned down?
Imagine waves of rockets and bombs coming forever, putting a constant strain on cost-inefficient missile defence.
There's never a full-scale invasion that can be responded to with nuclear weapons (and there's a latent Iranian and a realized Pakistani arsenal), only endless skirmishing and posturing that eats away at Israel's fiscal security. Its high-tech economy is already under a lot of pressure. Emigration. Then more emigration. The budget cannot support prolonged mobilization.
Say, Israel lashes out and invades Lebanon or Gaza or the West Bank. It devolves into an attritional slugging match, there is no decisive victory. As usual, they go around blowing up hospitals and gunning people down willy-nilly, the Arabs do the same thing of course. But the Arabs aren't dependant upon military aid and friends in high places to veto sanctions. The Arabs aren't dependant upon a world power choosing to keep huge amounts of its scarce seaborne firepower nearby - those carrier groups are needed elsewhere.
I recall you dismissing the power of nuclear weapons when we were discussing Russia-Ukraine/Europe, in the context of full-scale war. Yet the Russian and even European nuclear arsenals are much more capable than Israel's and conditions for use are a lot more straightforward.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
He showed up for Pilsudski's funeral and really liked the man.
Hitler repeatedly suggested a German-Polish alliance against the Soviet Union, but Piłsudski declined, instead seeking precious time to prepare for a potential war with either Germany or the Soviet Union. Just before his death, Piłsudski told Józef Beck that it must be Poland's policy to maintain neutral relations with Germany, keep up the Polish alliance with France and improve relations with the United Kingdom.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
In real history Poland was moved westward by Stalin. The Germans could've moved Poland eastwards, taken Danzig and so on while giving them land from Russia and Belarus. If there was one thing Russia has no shortage of, it's land. Or if they'd fought alongside Russia, they would've surely gotten more land in the peace and better treatment. The Russians treated Romania better than Poland since Romania switched sides.
There was no good outcome on offer, that's my point. The Poles ordered 'good outcome' in the restaurant and they received a double helping of bad outcome.
Territorially and demographically, it makes sense to pick a nearby ally with a strong army. The Poles did not do this and suffered immensely. One German invasion, one Soviet invasion then at the end of the war another Soviet invasion.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
This is just made-up. There is no reason to think that Russia might have a significantly greater chance of invading Poland based on a point of divergence some 80 years ago. Nobody can predict what would happen over such a time period. The decision not to pick one of the two choices INCREASED the chance of Russian invasion, it didn't lower it. The Ribbentrop-Beck pact book is nonsense (why would Germany invade Western Europe if allied with Poland?) that doesn't mean all variations of similar ideas are nonsense.
all the responsibility for the Holocaust would be offloaded from Germany to Poland
This is also ahistorical, Hungary collaborated. Romania collaborated eagerly. Various Soviet minorities were happy to liquidate Jews. Yet responsibility still lies with Germany. It's not as though Hungary and Romania have enormous influence in world opinion to cover up their misdeeds.
Ally with Germany and hand over Danzig in exchange for parts of Belorussia. Ally with Russia and get gains at Germany's expense (presumably more than received in real life).
Both of those are more realistic options than spurning both powers. There is absolutely no reason to think that the world is fair, that vast suffering is compensated for with rewards of any kind.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
It seems that he fought in Ukraine, he wrote a book about it: https://www.newsweek.com/ryan-routh-donald-trump-encouraged-assassination-book-1954433
Nobody is leaping out to debunk this: https://x.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1835552460481478829
I don't think he's CIA either, surely the CIA has more sophisticated tools than this guy? But he could definitely be a useful idiot for somebody.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Ally with Germany against Russia or ally with Russia against Germany. At least then the balance of power wouldn't be totally against them. They would have at least one vaguely friendly power nearby, rather than two enemies.
Either one necessitates sacrifices. Both countries wanted land back. But what did Poland's policy of equidistance between Germany and Russia get them, other than megadeaths? They got the worst possible outcome, Russia and Germany allying against them.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
There are times when fighting against the odds is wise and times where it is unwise. Let's examine the death toll for WW2 amongst various powers:
Denmark lost 0.16% of its population, barely a scratch. Surrendering quickly to Germany served them well. The US lost 0.3%. The UK, Belgium, France and Italy suffered around 1%. Czechoslovakia suffered around 2-3%, mostly Holocaust deaths as opposed to military deaths. Romania - 3%. Japan 3-4%. Hungary, 5-9% (a large number of Holocaust deaths plus they did a fair bit of fighting, like Romania).
Yugoslavia, 6-10%. Germany, 8%. Greece, 7-11%. The Soviet Union: 14%. But by far the hardest hit was Poland at 17%. Of course, all these countries faced widely different threats, some were luckier in their position than others, some took on much greater challenges.
However, nobody lost more than the Poles in WW2, nobody left that war in a worse position than Poland. Germany was partitioned but at least some got to escape communism. The Poles ended up being pushed westward, losing a fair few cities and enormous numbers of people. And they had to suffer another 45 years of communism.
Polish late interwar leaders faced a clear and unpleasant choice - Germany or Russia. They chose neither and got demolished by both. This was a terrible decision. Moral principles dealt them a crushing blow that the country has scarcely recovered from today. How many millions of people is standing up for freedom and independence worth? My country escaped lightly with 0.58%, yet 0.58% is still an enormous death toll! That was 60 COVIDs for us, targeting the young rather than the old. We in the Anglosphere suffered very little in the last 200 years, we were nearly always the strongest and won the most important wars. Yet we have a vast apparatus of war memorials and reverence for those sacrificed in war. Can we even imagine the sacrifices that others have made?
I have more sympathy for the Czech leaders who escaped total disaster than the Poles who plunged their country into catastrophe. Sometimes surrendering is the best course of action. We can only imagine the internal feelings of those who proudly chose death before dishonour, only to receive double portions of both.
Respect for agreements, obligation and one's reputation are secondary to the core health of the nation.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Russia and Syria have been allies for decades, the Russians have a naval base there and a lot of Syrian officers were trained in Moscow.
If the Philippines asked the US for help combatting terrorists, Islamists, rebels and various foreign-backed proxies, that would be perfectly reasonable and acceptable, given their longstanding ties and the US's pre-existing bases there.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Everyone goes on and on about the German blank cheque and completely ignores that the French did the exact same thing about a year before. They told Russia explicitly that they were prepared to back up Russia in a general war over a future Balkan crisis (one happening every few years at this point). What is that if not a blank cheque?
The French had decided they didn't particularly mind war, Germany hardly deserves more blame than France.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Bit late now but looks like I was wrong, Blumenthal says he fought in Ukraine and even wrote a schizo rant about it: https://x.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1835552460481478829
I hope the CIA hires people who can write out a full gramatical sentence though, the competence crisis is really severe if this is the kind of people they get.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
I thought he was just a NAFO guy, a hanger-on looking to help Ukraine but not actually associated with it officially, (though he was in an ad for Azov at Mariupol?) Definitely a sketchy person with these seeming Afghanistan-Ukraine connections. And all the other stuff he's been doing, running around with machineguns and punching rapists: https://x.com/718Tv/status/1835491672857137620
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Yeah banning social media is easier and more workable than porn, I'd be in support too if I wasn't worried about a slippery slope. Even just debundling this stuff from phones might be a good idea, it's not necessary to be installed on start up. Got a new phone recently and they auto-installed tiktok on it. It wasn't even a Chinese brand!
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
Elon I believe responded to this (the fines) by calling the government fascist: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1834215798858207667
The bill hasn't yet passed but I can hardly disagree with Elon. The Australian govt seems dead-set on banning and censoring more and more. The E-safety commissioner wanted to globally censor videos of the stabbing on twitter because Australians could use a VPN to get around the national-level restrictions. After Elon told them to get stuffed they backed down but it sparked a cavalcade of politicians looking to sound tough by promising more banning and restrictions. All we seem to do is ban things - development, mines, pipelines.
And especially the internet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_Australia
There's an amusing scene where a senator goes around describing Eromanga Sensei. The man's calling was clearly to be a dodgy real estate developer, just look at the physiognomy. Why does anyone have to listen to him on what manga should or should not be legal: https://youtube.com/watch?v=bDmbo5dxgQg
Anyway, computing is inherently multi-purpose. Terrorists, paedophiles and drug dealers can use open-source software that nobody is in control of. Encrypted text messaging is not that hard! What is the government going to do then, backdoor every CPU? They'll have to get in line behind the US and China.
Likewise, it's unworkable to ban children from porn sites. Are they going to make everyone give their ID to every damn booru and sketchy Russian site? We have a massive surfeit of bureaucrats with too much time and money on their hands. Nobody ever wants to leave things alone, they have to work hard making a mess out of uncomfortable, sometimes unpleasant realities:
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
The Great Realignment in US politics marches on: https://x.com/IrishPatri0t/status/1834317557329023315
On one hand, the Cheney/Bush-Kamala rapprochement continues. But on the other hand, Trump and Biden seem to be moving closer and closer together? Real - Biden taking a Trump hat with him up onto Air Force One, putting on a Trump Hat in a meeting in Pennsylvania to applause. Fake - the AI stuff.
More seriously: https://x.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/1834560572131602788
https://x.com/captivedreamer7/status/1834091502395388385
However, Biden does have an opportunity to make the most significant endorsement of his political career...
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
In 1979, Wiesenthal told The Washington Post: "I have sought with Jewish leaders not to talk about 6 million Jewish dead [in the Holocaust], but rather about 11 million civilians dead, including 6 million Jews." In a 2017 interview, Yehuda Bauer said that he had told Wiesenthal not to use this figure. "I said to him, 'Simon, you are telling a lie,' ... [Wiesenthal replied] 'Sometimes you need to do that to get the results for things you think are essential.'" According to Bauer and other historians, Wiesenthal chose the figure of 5 million non-Jewish victims because it was just lower than the six million Jews who were murdered, but high enough to attract sympathy from non-Jews. The figure of eleven million Nazi victims became popular and was referred to by President Jimmy Carter in the executive order establishing the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum.[138]
Didn't the Nazis kill plenty of Poles, Roma and Slavs, or are we now defining Holocaust to only include dead Jews? Seems like a lot of word games are being played here.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
One tech company ploughed moderate amounts of money into the metaverse (about $20 billion total?), all of them are pumping insane amounts of money into AI.
There's a qualitatively different atmosphere between AI and the metaverse, you don't see the US restricting VR tech exports like they are AI tech. AI is just better, LLMs are used in so many places (writing, images, music, code, translation...) whereas the metaverse only exists in VR.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10mo ago
That's the mini version. There's mini, preview and then o1 proper.
OpenAI is not very good at distinguishing its models.
They can fly so low though! At the treeline, below the treeline, at waist height... At sea you have clear lines of sight and an elevated position to shoot down at surface-skimming missiles.
Countering these things is hard, as we see in Ukraine. The solution may just be to have more drones of your own.
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