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Notes -
The Crusades
I read Thomas Asbridge’s history of the Crusades recently. Its an excellent narrative history covering the theological and social developments that prompted the ‘armed pilgrimages’, the military campaigns, politics, and the changes in the Arab world that ultimately destroyed the crusader states.
A very brief history:
In 1095, the Pope called on Europeans to liberate the Holy Land from the Muslims in exchange for salvation. Over the next 150 years hundreds of thousands of Europeans, including kings, set off for Palestine and Syria. The timing was perfect: the First Crusade arrived at a point of maximum discord among the Muslims and managed to capture Jerusalem against significant odds. The Crusade’s leaders, always with an eye to personal gain, created 4 quasi-independent states. For the next century the small Frankish-Latin elite ruled over a religiously mixed native population and skirmishing regularly with Arab armies. In 1187, the Muslims unified under Saladin, defeated the crusaders at the battle of Hattin, and reconquered the Holy Land save for a few outposts. The second crusade was a damp squib, but the third – the “Kings Crusade” – was led by the Kings of England and France and succeeded in reconquering some of the lost territory.
From here it was downhill: The fourth crusade diverted to sack Constantinople (and critically weaken Byzantium), the fifth crusade was annihilated in Egypt, the Sixth crusade negotiated a partial return of Jerusalem, the seventh crusade was again annihilated in Egypt, and the eighth crusade attacked Tunisia of all places. While the Latins floundered around, the Mongols slowly devoured Mesopotamia and the Mamluks, slave mercenaries of Arab armies, seized Egypt. These two new powers fought over the middle east and as the Mamluk’s got the upper hand, they destroyed what was left of the Crusader states almost as an afterthought.
The critical factor that hamstrung the crusader armies was their leadership and rank and file wanted to fulfill their oaths to capture Jerusalem and so obtain absolution, not conquer a kingdom. Once a crusade arrived in the holy land, win or lose, the troops involved would immediately begin to go home. No sustained effort to recruit Latin soldiers for the long run was undertaken. The permanent, professional armies that did emerge were the military orders who developed their own internal logic and interests. The Crusaders made little attempt to manage relations with their neighbours to avoid conflict. It wasn’t fully appreciated at the time, but the existence of these small far-flung Crusader states owed entirely to (1) the lack of unity among the Muslims and (2) a set of theological arguments that could motivate Western Europeans to fight. Once the Muslim’s unified and Western European understanding of how sins were absolved changed (to wit: indulgences rather than pilgrimages), the Crusaders were doomed.
Israel
Does this remind you of Israel today? It does to me. The parallel isn’t perfect, but there are a few common elements that stick in my mind. Obviously, the location is the same. Israel is an outpost of the West. It’s a religious state which limits the extent it can peacefully coexist with its neighbours. Its existence, from 1948 onwards, owes to the ineptitude of Arab armies. At critical moments in its history, military aid from the United States saved it from defeat. Two peoples assert their right to land and both look to religious justifications to buttress their claims.
The disanalogies include Israel having populated its land with its people rather than ruling over an alien ethnic majority, Israel having nuclear weapons and a highly competent military (with exceptions, the Crusaders generally did not).
Nukes may always be the trump card of course, but it looks to me like Israel’s long term existence is precarious -- current economic and military power notwithstanding. A change of heart in the West or unity among the Arabs could easily spell its doom. Israel has a decisive technological edge over its enemies, but it draws its armies from 7.5 million Jews compared with a combined 149 million among its neighbours. If it came to a war of attrition and Arab resolve was (unusually) solid, Israel would be in trouble. I think the history of the crusades has caused me to update my priors on how Israel should behave to its neighbours. If it is playing the ultra-long game for civilizational survival, it has to find a way to achieve a peaceful settlement with its neighbours and the Palestinians. Because you never know when the winds will change: No one in 1177 thought that in 10 years Saladin would retake Jerusalem and no one in 1210 had heard of Mongols. The unexpected nature of history makes me think we should do a lot more geopolitical risk management than we do.
But what? You leave off without saying what nuclear weapons mean to the Crusader metaphor, almost like it was inconvenient and should be ignored rather than acknowledged.
Why does a change of heart in the west spell the doom of Israel, when Israel doesn't need the west to have or maintain nuclear weapons?
Why would unity among the Arabs spell its doom, when unity among the Arabs doesn't remove Israel's nuclear weapons?
Why would a united Arab state commit to a war mutually assured destruction by invading a state with nuclear weapons?
Why does a population of 7.5 million versus 149 million matter when relative population numbers actually increase the value of nuclear weapons?
Why would Israel's survival depend on a war of attrition when Israel has nuclear weapons?
Moreover, your historical analogies don't really address how history would have differed without, and let's say it together, nuclear weapons.
Why would Saladin have been able to retake Jerusalem in 10 years if the holders of Jerusalem in 1177 had nuclear weapons?
Why would anyone in 1210 have had reason to hear of the Mongols had the Mongols targets had resort to nuclear weapons?
And that is why some states invest in nuclear weapons, and other states don't try to mass armies and overrun states with nuclear weapons.
What if they just get grey-zoned down?
Imagine waves of rockets and bombs coming forever, putting a constant strain on cost-inefficient missile defence.
There's never a full-scale invasion that can be responded to with nuclear weapons (and there's a latent Iranian and a realized Pakistani arsenal), only endless skirmishing and posturing that eats away at Israel's fiscal security. Its high-tech economy is already under a lot of pressure. Emigration. Then more emigration. The budget cannot support prolonged mobilization.
Say, Israel lashes out and invades Lebanon or Gaza or the West Bank. It devolves into an attritional slugging match, there is no decisive victory. As usual, they go around blowing up hospitals and gunning people down willy-nilly, the Arabs do the same thing of course. But the Arabs aren't dependant upon military aid and friends in high places to veto sanctions. The Arabs aren't dependant upon a world power choosing to keep huge amounts of its scarce seaborne firepower nearby - those carrier groups are needed elsewhere.
I recall you dismissing the power of nuclear weapons when we were discussing Russia-Ukraine/Europe, in the context of full-scale war. Yet the Russian and even European nuclear arsenals are much more capable than Israel's and conditions for use are a lot more straightforward.
Then the dismissal of the historical comparison to the Crusader States would be validated, as the Crusader States were not grey-zoned down, they were conquered by invading armies.
And the reason why I dismiss the relevance of Russian nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war is the same point made below on other examples of nuclear powers losing wars: the wars in question are not existential threats to the nuclear state posed by invading armies.
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