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RandomRanger

Just build nuclear plants!

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joined 2022 September 05 00:46:54 UTC

				

User ID: 317

RandomRanger

Just build nuclear plants!

3 followers   follows 1 user   joined 2022 September 05 00:46:54 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 317

Some of this seems a little unhelpful - a growing number of incursions into Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone sound a lot worse than 'Chinese aircraft flying over mainland China', since the ADIZ extends like a rectangle up into China proper. The Chinese air force probably does more training and exercises these days and it's not unreasonable that they should do so in the south of their own country.

Crossing the median line in the straits is more relevant.

Nevertheless it's interesting and I don't disagree with the main premise/vibe.

The galaxy is only 100,000 light-years in diameter. Starships moving at a mere 0.1 c could get from one side to the other in only a million years.

That's peanuts in astronomical time. If you can make a 0.1 c starship you need not worry about biological lifespans. 'Aliens exist but are too far away' doesn't make any sense. They could've shown up 100 million years ago and still be here. There are centuries old engravings of weird shapes in the sky, recordings from egypt, footage from modern jets and sensors.

Furthermore, our understanding of the universe is extremely limited, bordering on pathetic. 95% of the universe is 'dark' to us, we have no clue about it. Logically, that's the most likely place for the bulk of the aliens to be. Not only is it the vast majority of the universe's mass and energy, it provides a simple explanation for the apparent absence of aliens in the tiny portion we understand.

It makes no sense to play around with Dyson Spheres or largescale structures we might be capable of observing, it's not cost-efficient compared to 'dark' enterprises.

We prank the North Sentinel Islanders with drones and occasional plane/helicopter overflights, some missionaries showing up and getting killed. The real estate they control is so small it's worthless. Nobody wants to live on a crap jungle island. It's probably the same with aliens but instead of crap jungle island it's 'entire visible universe'. There's no real serious intent, more like casual observation. The only thing interesting on Earth is us.

One might think that but the guys that go in for special forces are amongst the most violent and aggressive. Fort Bragg has crazy high death rate because of the drug use and violence.

While I am confident US special forces are trained differently to Spetsnaz one can see a little of the 'operator mindset' here: https://x.com/XiaoVilin99/status/1937922190005178389

Company I was at made the mistake of hiring a fat woman with tattoos. She gave me a bunch of work but didn't get her side of things done and they fired her after a few months.

While it may be hard to avoid tradesmen with tattoos it's still a bad sign IMO. Tradesmen are notorious for not showing up on time. Or with Hegseth, ideally you want some kind of efficient manager in that role, not a Fox News presenter. Trump seems to be loyalty-maxxing which is understandable but not ideal for efficiency.

There's a major difference between:

"The "Woke Rightist" looks at his race, sees a mostly imaginary mass of helpless unemployed drug addicts and demands tariffs so that they can rise to the lofty heights of sewing bras, picking fruit, hauling equipment, and digging ditches in the rain."

and "Americans are willing to do unspecified jobs that illegal immigrants do (at some unspecified but presumably higher wage)"

The former is basically an insult. The latter is vague politician opportunity and positivity speak. It's not deliberately and specifically picking out the lowest status roles. Hauling equipment, what is this, a Simpsons episode? https://youtube.com/watch?v=zTK_5Xz6X8Y&t=195

Likewise with 'skilled, up-skilled'. That's the future they envision. Some kids will be picking fruit as a summer job at a good wage - while not defrauding benefits like illegals. Then farmers will get some Made-in-America machine to scoop the tomatoes out of the ground. The kids will move onto more productive labour like making or maintaining machinery or building good houses... Whether this will actually happen is unknown but that's the idea.

And tariffs aren't even relevant here, the quote you find is about illegal immigration. Tariff 'industrial policy' may be ill-conceived and poorly executed but the goal is not to develop the lucrative ditch-digging sector. Trump and co want a revitalized US industrial sector - steel, semiconductors, assembly, machine-tools, rare-earths, manufacturing generally, petrochemicals... They dislike being dependant on foreign countries for anything and want everything made in America, even textiles and similar. Ideally in some high-tech, very productive factory like in the golden age of American industry but if not, they probably still would prefer low-tech industry to HR and 'professional services' industries or NGOs they think are working against them.

How is it actual disagreement if Turok is tilting at windmills with these stories about what he imagines, or likes to imagine that other people think:

In a country where 38% of liberal women aged 18-29 identify as LGBT, you, dear reader, may find yourself drawn to the “BASED” subculture. I’m not asking you to stay away, just to see it for what it is. It’s not Crémieux, it’s not Razib Khan, it’s not Steve Sailer. It’s people like Natalie Winters, whose response to the Trump-Musk feud was, “this whole thing is proof of why we shouldn’t vaccinate children.”

If you are 'based', actually you're somehow like Natalie Winters and the idiot foil in a long story he made up? 'Don't stay away' he says, not necessarily, just know that you're weird and low class?

"The "Woke Rightist" looks at his race, sees a mostly imaginary mass of helpless unemployed drug addicts and demands tariffs so that they can rise to the lofty heights of sewing bras, picking fruit, hauling equipment, and digging ditches in the rain."

The issue isn't disagreeing about facts in the world, or disagreeing about some prediction or analysis. It's not disagreeing about what should happen, or proposing some interesting idea. It's him conjuring up imaginary people who think silly things and sneering at them from a supposedly objective point of view. How is this legitimate disagreement?

I can't conceive that any kind of ROI calculation happened with Joker 2. Profit was not the goal. You don't take a small-mid budget film that scored a billion at the box office and go 'for the sequel we'll take a completely different tone and genre and themes! Also to maximize our revenue, also spend 4-5x as much'. No sane person would do this. If it works, do the same thing again but better and follow up on the hit. Don't totally reinvent what you're doing.

But it was the same writers and directors... Only one of three producers was changed.

Be no more antagonistic than is absolutely necessary for your argument.

The "Woke Rightist" looks at his race, sees a mostly imaginary mass of helpless unemployed drug addicts and demands tariffs so that they can rise to the lofty heights of sewing bras, picking fruit, hauling equipment, and digging ditches in the rain.

This isn't what the 'woke right' thinks. Firstly the people who believe in HBD or racialism are in a different group to the generic MAGA or tariff enthusiasts. Secondly, they don't want more of their people digging ditches. Maybe they want their enemies digging ditches once their overpaid email jobs get vaporized. Maybe they want mechanized fruitpickers. Maybe they want higher wages for locals to do those jobs as redistribution from rich to poor.

You can say 'tarifffs done in this way are retarded and a bad way to achieve these goals' and nobody will ban you. You can say 'HBD is overrated compared to historical/economic practices in determining the fate of nations' and nobody will ban you though some will argue with you. You can't make up some strawman of what other people believe, provide no evidence that they think this and then sneer at them.

The mods were enormously generous letting you back onto this forum after such intense and vehement mischaracterization.

You said you think this shouldn't be allowed while other people like Turok are being banned for a different matter. You're happy with both but not just one of the two.

"Apply the same low bar consistently. Let people have an actual conversation with actual disagreement."

respectful way to tiptoe around the conversation over whether Jews control the American government

You've got rather significant US leaders like Donald Trump going out and saying, publicly “The biggest change I’ve seen in Congress is Israel literally owned Congress — you understand that — 10 years ago, 15 years ago. And it was so powerful. It was so powerful. And today it’s almost the opposite,” Trump said.

“And we’re not talking about over a very long period of time, but I think you know exactly what I’m saying. They had such power, Israel had such power — and rightfully — over Congress, and now it doesn’t. It’s incredible, actually,” Trump claimed.

And what about Jewish representation in the Biden administration? Here's a handy source about it: https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jews-in-the-biden-administration

The Secretary of State, Attorney-General, Secretary of Homeland Security, Director of National Intelligence, SEC chairman, Secretary of Treasury, both WH chiefs of staff and much else besides, all were Jewish. The President wasn't even mentally there most of the time. I'd challenge that as a matter of fact, the US government was run by Jews during that period. Who else was controlling it if not these people?

Right now Trump is going on and on about how much he loves Netanyahu. He has many Jewish advisors and seems to think that Israel was or ought to run the US Congress, though it's always hard to understand what Trump thinks or means. Would this not have some kind of influence on his Middle East policy, where Israel is located?

But you not only don't want to talk about it but don't even want other people to talk about it?

Should we not be capable of talking about Saudi influence in America? Or Russian influence in America? Or Qatari influence? Those are worthy topics of discussion. If someone wants to make a post about it then they should go ahead. I was always really bored with all the Russia stuff, it got into an arcane lore of who made which dossier when paid for by who... But it's eminently appropriate for discussion.

Turok was being banned for being overtly aggressive and obnoxiously creating imaginary narratives like "The "Woke Rightist" looks at his race, sees a mostly imaginary mass of helpless unemployed drug addicts and demands tariffs so that they can rise to the lofty heights of sewing bras, picking fruit, hauling equipment, and digging ditches in the rain."

That's not what the 'woke right' thinks and he surely knows it. He need only check the MAGA rhetoric from Trump about good factory jobs, or the rhetoric from the right about the need to mechanize dull fruitpicking jobs and raise productivity. Why, they say, should millions of people be brought into the country if AI is going to destroy everyone's jobs? Or the need to have American wealth kept in America rather than sent off in remittances. Or them hating H1Bs as cost-cutting that interferes with developing talent. Or them not seeing the country as purely an economic zone but having responsibility to native citizens. It's an insanely uncharitable and aggressive butchering of other people's ideology.

There's more to 'leftism' (an incredibly broad, nebulous term) than 'uhhh i'm gay and retarded and want free stuff, now give it to me before I torch your country out of resentment for my genetic superiors - I'm still going to torch your country though no matter what you do'. Just making that argument, even in a verbose way, should be deserving of a ban. It's obviously antagonistic and obnoxious.

Yes, I made the bot do a programming task.

I ALSO observed it write long-form fiction. This is not an advanced reading comprehension task. It should be obvious that programming and creative writing are two different things.

I think I've explained myself adequately?

You said this:

I call them nonsense because I think that sense requires some sort of relationship to both fact and context. To be sensible is to be aware of your surroundings.

Normal people would think that 'fact' and 'context' would be adequately achieved by writing code that runs and fiction that isn't obviously derpy 'Harry Potter and the cup of ashes that looked like Hermione's parents'. But you have some special, strange definition of intelligence that you never make clear, except to repeat that LLMs do not possess it because they don't have apprehension of fact and context. Yet they do have these qualities, because we can see that they do creative writing and coding tasks and as a result they are intelligent.

It's amazing how /g/ooners, chub.ai, openrouter sex fiends will write enormous amounts of smut with LLMs and nobody ever finds out but Grok ERPs about raping Will Stancil, in a positively tame way, and it's major news. A prompted Deepseek instance would've made Grok look like a wilting violet. Barely anyone has even heard of Wan 2.1.

Twitter truly is the front page of the world.

https://x.com/search?q=Will%20Stancil&src=typed_query

Isn't it important to determine if Mossad has blackmail material on the US elites, given that US and Israeli interests may not be one and the same? Indeed the mere fact that blackmail is going on indicates that they're not the same.

Like if Russia really did have blackmail material on not just Trump but a huge swathe of the US power structure, then wouldn't that be significant? Imagine if the US was sending tens of billions in military aid to Russia, sanctioning and bombing Russia's enemies, damaging its international image for the sake of Russia?

Also, where's the MI6 angle? Prince Andrew? Given Ghislaine Maxwell's heritage and the lack of subtlety, this whole affair reeks of Mossad.

The other day I gave Sonnet 7000 lines of code, (much of it irrelevant to this specific task) and asked it to create a feature in quite general language.

I get out six files that do everything I've asked for and a bunch of random, related, useful things, plus some entirely unnecessary stuff like a word cloud (maybe it thinks I'm one of those people who likes word clouds). There are some weird leap-of-logic hacks, showing imaginary figures in one of the features I didn't even ask for.

But it just works. Oneshot.

How is that not intelligence? What do we even mean by intelligence if not that? Sonnet 4 has to interpret my meaning, formulate a plan, transform my meaning into computer code and then add things it thinks fit in the context of what I asked.

Fact-sensitive? It just works. It's sensitive to facts, if I want it to change something it will do it. I accidentally failed to rename one of the files and got an error. I tell Sonnet about the error, it deduces I don't have the file or misnamed it, tells me to check this and I feel like a fool. You simply can't write working code without connection to 'fact'. It's not 'polished', it just works.

How the hell can an AI write thousands of words of fiction if it doesn't have a relationship with 'context'? We know it can do this. I have seen it myself.

Now if you're talking about spatial intelligence and visual interpretation, then sure. AI is subhuman in spatial reasoning. A blind person is even more subhuman in visual tasks. But a blind person is not necessarily unintelligent because of this, just as modern AI is not unintelligent because of its blind spots in the tokenizer or occasional weaknesses.

The AI-doubter camp seems to be taking extreme liberties with the meaning of 'intelligence', bringing it far beyond the meaning used by reasonable people.

I thought bartender or stand-up was being interpreted as 'poor'. Like how sometimes people say self-employed when they mean unemployed. Or how women are plus-size, curvy, big-boned rather than fat.

While some US troops presumably die in Ukraine, Fort Bragg has been having huge numbers of deaths even pre-22. Deaths didn't seem to increase much since the war began like one might expect. Incompetence and just being grossly dysfunctional is a big part of it.

In total, a staggering 83 active-duty soldiers stationed at Fort Bragg died in the 18 months ending June 2021, according to data obtained by Rolling Stone. Only 11 of these deaths were from “natural causes.” Many, perhaps a plurality, were suicides. But in no fewer than 33 cases, the Army has classified the cause of death as “undetermined.”

In other words, the Army can’t or won’t say how a whole platoon’s worth of soldiers died at its largest installation, home of the Special Forces, the Airborne Corps, and the Joint Special Operations Command. Over this same 18-month period, just three Fort Bragg soldiers died in overseas combat, meaning these elite troops are a dizzying 27 times more likely to die stateside than in war zones such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.

I wouldn't trust the US navy to sail in uncontested waters or avoid burning down in port, they managed to lose a light carrier to fire during refitting. When you think about US military performance in the last few decades, it's not really a cluster of excellence. Much of what they're covering up might just be embarrassing skill issues rather than black ops skulduggery.

Possible this is intended as a kind of coercion theater? The US used to go through this annual vote on whether China keeps Most-Favoured-Nation trading status, from about 1980 to 2000. Of course the leverage wasn't very useful but it did give politicians ways to grandstand 'I'm hawkish on China' and maybe gave vague warnings on human rights marginally more gravitas. There's a longstanding tradition of the executive branch sabotaging legislative attempts to create leverage and coerce China. Bush went 'yeah tiananmen is bad but we're not going to stop trading with China' back in' 89.

If you want to do things on a flood plain, surely you should be prepared for a flood. Better yet, manage the water so it won't flood. Flooding isn't akin to 'oh no this playground is too exciting, little Timmy might bruise himself, better make it as dull as possible' safetyism, it's a serious issue that destroys a great deal of property along with killing people.

I also submit that Los Angeles shouldn't have been burning down this year either. The US is supposed to be rich and this part of LA doubly so. Rich people aren't supposed to have their houses burn down. Clear away the flammable shrubs and have some water in tanks so it doesn't just run dry and people are running around tossing oat milk onto fires, as in one memorable case. LA couldn't be bothered to properly prepare for fires in a fire-prone area, couldn't be bothered to clear out vegetation, couldn't be bothered to pass the marshmallow test and paid the price.

I don't see why it's not cost-efficient to take these measures for a rich country. What else was the money going to be spent on, boomer welfare, fake jobs in medicine?

Mastering chaotic systems is the whole point of the game. That's what civilization is for, managing irrigation and controlling rivers is one of the oldest duties of government. We should also be working harder on controlling the weather. Weather is very complex but new AI methods are useful here, plus more sensors would be useful.

Building infrastructure to be replaceable and developing early warning systems is good but controlling the system entirely is better. Past a certain level of development, when human activity alters the whole climate system, we have to get more serious about controlling the environment rather than simply inhabiting it.

Imagine a man living in a huge mansion. His presence reshapes it slowly but surely as he builds up endless empty beer cans, bags full of garbage are overflowing. Rats and pests are building up. There are mysterious stains on the walls. And the mansion isn't so great in the first place, there are floorboards that mustn't be stood on, broken windows that let in the cold air.

He can either minimize his presence (not buy all these beer cans, eat 100% of his food so there's minimal waste, not tread where it's dangerous) or he can grow up and clear out all the garbage, renovate to fix up this place. Even though renovations are expensive, exhausting and you never know what kind of unexpected costs will emerge, it's still the right decision.

I think rich countries shouldn't be building houses and infrastructure in flood plains without damming or proper measures to control the water. It's not impossible. The Netherlands has most of its economic activity below sea level, they eroded the North Sea.

There are big floods all the time in Britain and Australia that wreck people's houses. There ought to be a more aggressive stance taken towards the weather, bring it under control one way or another.

I think back in the day it was so manifestly obvious that swearing an oath meant you had to stand by it they never encoded such a section. In any event she could say 'i take this obligation freely and sincerely' in her usual overtly insincere and obnoxious manner. Root problem isn't solved. In the 1930s a fair few Wehrmacht officers felt restricted from plotting against Hitler because they swore an oath to him. It was not on! People would go around saying 'my word is my bond'.

In any event she did sign the paper so she formally ticked the box. Oaths are just box-ticking these days, no more meaningful than terms and conditions for free software, no more meaningful than the King's Champion who used to ride up, throw down a gauntlet and challenge anyone who disputed the new monarch's right to rule in single combat. He's still there of course, just holds a standard now.

Yeah, the Aztecs did have something substantial. Pretty sure the Indigenous know they lost a war (they want recognition of massacres on the frontier after all) but want to relitigate it. There's a website that shows you what was happening (or at least what they managed/chose to record) and it was totally one-sided: https://c21ch.newcastle.edu.au/colonialmassacres/map.php

With the Native Americans in the US, they managed to somehow eke out 2:1 or 3:1 native deaths for each white death. In Australia it was 20:1, maybe as high as 60:1.

Problems with CO2 in the Southern Ocean? Need it quickly absorbed? One man has the most based idea of all time: https://arxiv.org/html/2501.06623v1

True. But really, being proud that you reached agriculture and tribal-level development isn't very impressive. Only a few thousand years behind the curve on metalworking! One wonders whether formerly-Aztec Mexicans or Mayans are snooty about being lumped in with mere nomadic 'native Americans' who never got that into astronomy or stone-working.

We're already there to a large extent: https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2015/12/unsw-s-newest-indigenous-doctors-come-from-all-walks-of-life

But in 80 years they'll be Indian.