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Transnational Thursday for July 3, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Here are some topics I'm looking at this week; as a draft of the Sentinel minutes. Curious to get thoughts.

Geopolitics

Americas

Bill Gates warns about the lives lost because of US aid cuts, though he relies on a study on The Lancet

USAID programs now being run by State Department as agency ends operations

Mr. Abrego's Account of Torture at CECOT in El Salvador

Europe

Russian use of chemical weapons against Ukraine 'widespread', Dutch defence minister says

613 killed at Gaza aid distribution sites, near humanitarian covoys, says UN

North Korea to send 30,000 more troops to help Russia fight Ukraine

Over 210,000 Russians signed contracts for war in Ukraine in first half of 2025, Moscow says

Middle East

Iran

United States expands military base in Saudi Arabia

A military base has been established by the U.S. near the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia, with construction beginning in early 2022. The base, known as the 'Jenkins Logistics Support Base,' has been quietly growing and is strategically located 30 kilometers from a significant Saudi port, suggesting preparations for a prolonged military conflict with Iran. Recent updates show substantial expansion since last year, including new buildings and enhanced security measures, alongside a continuous necessity for U.S. military supplies in response to escalating tensions in the region, such as Iran's attacks on military assets.

Iran Halts Cooperation with UN Nuclear Watchdog

US says its strikes degraded Iran's nuclear programme by one to two years

Iran president Pezeshkian reportedly orders to suspend cooperation with IAEA

US must rule out more strikes before talks can resume: Iran

US lawmakers seek to send B-2s, bunker busters to Israel if Iran takes nuclear path

Gaza

Gaza starvation killings: UN says deliberately shot hungry civilians

Gaza: Over 400 Palestinians killed around private aid hubs, UN rights office says

Hamas submits ‘positive response’ to ceasefire proposal in major step toward a deal

Donald Trump Says Israel Agrees to 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire

Yemen

Asia

Satellite evidence points to heightened operations at N. Korean nuclear site

North Korea's uranium refinery in Pyongsan has shown increased activity amidst ongoing efforts to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. Utilizing satellite imagery and thermal infrared analysis, recent findings indicate that operations at the facility have intensified, particularly at night, with the facility's waste management practices also experiencing notable changes. The site consists of three main zones: a uranium mine, a refining factory, and a settling pond for wastewater, all of which are reportedly well-fortified against potential air strikes, though concerns over their effectiveness persist.

Analysis reveals that the Pyongsan facility is the only operational uranium refinery in North Korea following the reported closure of another site in Pakchon. An uptick in wastewater release into the settling pond has been detected, raising environmental concerns ahead of the rainy season. Additionally, alarming reports of a mysterious illness affecting local workers and residents have prompted calls for a thorough investigation into the health impacts and environmental conditions surrounding the refinery.

India/Pakistan

Bangladesh tribunal hands 6-month jail term in first verdict against Hasina

Africa

Looming funding shortfall could reverse global progress against AIDS, warns UNAIDS chief

200 Christians killed in Nigeria by Fulani herdsmen

Suspected Boko Haram insurgents step up attacks in Nigeria

Congo, M23 rebels plan return to Qatar talks amid Trump pressure

Bio

Tech and AI

Global Economy

Early Fed chair nomination could rattle markets - Reuters

World Bank warns that 39 fragile states are falling further behind as conflicts grow, get deadlier

Misc

Reversal in ocean circulation

Major reversal in ocean circulation detected in the Southern Ocean

Two people perish in Spain's heatwave

Problems with CO2 in the Southern Ocean? Need it quickly absorbed? One man has the most based idea of all time: https://arxiv.org/html/2501.06623v1