RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
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User ID: 317
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
6hr ago
The market doesn't necessarily reward companies for investing, it rewards stock buybacks (which were all the rage amongst big tech up until the AI boom).
If they wanted to juice their stocks, they'd just continue buybacks rather than buying GPUs.
It'd be surprising if these large, old, well-established software companies all catch AI fever at the same time. These are all survivors of the dotcom bubble, not fledgling newcomers with more credulous leadership.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
6hr ago
Fair enough, I guess that's a reasonable stance.
It's just that just today I see people online talking about Qwen 3.7 Max:
Over 35 continuous hours, Qwen3.7-Max executed 1,158 tool calls and 432 self-evaluations. It wrote, compiled, profile-tested, and repeatedly rewrote a production-grade SGLang Triton attention kernel. The resulting custom kernel achieved a 10x speedup over the official reference code. Engineers on forums noted that its ability to identify optimization bottlenecks after 30 hours of continuous operations represents "true industrial-grade autonomous engineering" rather than standard code completion.
Are they lying? Was the kernel made up? Maybe Alibaba is massaging the figures to some extent with the exact meaning of what a 10x speedup means in this context, dramatic speedups for just a few tasks being averaged out. Yet we know that other AI models can also do this kind of task, the general idea can't be just a lie. If it's not a lie, then surely this seems like a highly desirable, powerful technology that can substitute for high-end human talent to some extent. GPT5.5's verified mathematical conjectures seem hard to cheat. Kernels and mathematics seem to have real world value, as does whatever Anthropic's been doing with the war in Iran in terms of intelligence, rapid realtime assessment. Hard to get more real-world or frictional than warfare...
Yeah but why aren't the hyperscalers abandoning scaling? Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook made a deliberate choice to halt buybacks and spend hundreds of billions on AI. They made this choice based on something, they're spending $700 billion this year! You don't invest that much as a modern financialized American corporation without being sure about what you're doing.
He should be thinking that, if further significant improvements are impossible, then capex will plunge as soon as this is realized. But this isn't happening, we see continual improvements on a monthly basis.
Apple is more of a hardware company, they have a different business model to Microsoft and the others. AI is understandably not their great strength. They might reasonably calculate that they are not going to win a struggle with Google Deepmind on AI with regard to talent or compute or determination. AI is the lifeblood of Google, devices are the lifeblood of Apple.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1d ago
Timing sure is hard. I managed to buy Micron at the top and so lost out there, it then recovered but it took a while.
Nevertheless, you can make money shorting if you're actually right. If you know things that others don't know, you can use this to your advantage. Don't blow your whole load in one year, keep some powder left for if the ponzi goes higher. There are ways to position yourself to profit from this, if the thesis is true.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1d ago
Interesting, thanks. TBH I don't know how that could be constitutionally possible, Parliamentarians can say what they like with few limits, so what could a code of conduct do... But the intent is pretty clear, just like with many of their unworkable policies.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2d ago
they're an outright threat to democracy insofar as they want to ban political parties from being far-right
I dislike the Greens but I didn't hear anything about this, what are you drawing from? Did they say that? TBH I probably don't pay enough attention to Australian politics so I could easily have missed it.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2d ago
I think they are currently incapable of designing and maintaining any significant projects that go beyond a basic bitch CRUD application or things of that sort. I'm also skeptical that there is all that much room for growth or improvement beyond their current capabilities
That's what he thinks. Surely he should just put his money where his mouth is? If Anthropic AIs cannot design or maintain any significant projects beyond a CRUD application and this isn't going to significantly change then presumably Anthropic is not worth near a trillion dollars and so the biggest industrial buildout in human history is a waste of money.
The premise that they're incapable of doing anything beyond CRUD and yet also they're completing long expert-level cyber infiltration exercises is bizarre and incoherent to me... but that's what he thinks.
So I'm asking @self_made_human and others who seem more on-board with the AI hype train
Choo choo!
So it only found 1 minor vulnerability in curl that hasn't been fixed before (including by these high level human programmers)... but it did find a bunch of other vulnerabilities in other software? It is indeed still markedly stronger than its predecessors?
So the future trajectory is just the same as the current trajectory, the lines on the chart go up and everything the lines correspond to in the real world also goes up, albeit in a messier way.
If you're an AI skeptic, then I recommend to simply short Nvidia, Coreweave, cloud providers, HBM manufacturers like Micron... What does it matter how random people on the internet think, compared to making money? I put my money where my mouth is and bought AI stocks and made lots of money. Let money flow to those who are right. If you think you know better than Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook and everyone else pouring money into AI hand over fist, then don't just say so, position yourself to exploit your superior insights.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
5d ago
The judge is not mogging him based on looks but based on authority (and camera angles in this instance I think). If he were not a judge this guy wouldn't be mogging anyone.
July 2026: A new tranche of significantly better models
October 2026: A new tranche of significantly better models
(this repeats every 3 months and each time people complain that there was degradation because their tone, behaviour and failure modes are different each time. Simultaneously the hyperscalers get more and more AI revenue and invest more and more into AI hardware.)
Late 2026 Copilot or Word introduces an 'automated proofreading' button that shifts the mainstream white collar conception of AI from 'wtf is this popup in Adobe that wants to summarize a PDF, I don't want a summary of this PDF. I want to see every tech company sundered and razed' to 'ok this is actually quite handy'. This could've happened at any time in the last 2 years if Microsoft had a clue of what they were doing. Human blundering prevails over technical possibilities for now.
End 2026 there's a series of major AI-enabled cyberattacks that just never stops, it resembles 'Trommelfeuer' (WW1 term denoting when the artillery fire is so heavy one blast merges into the next creating a continuous roar of explosions). Websites, especially older websites, are just down all the time and people are quite frustrated they now need to pay a hyperscaler for expensive security assistance. Same with all the very lifelike, convincing, highly researched and well-planned scam calls (now in a warm, english-speaking accent). People are trapped into this love-hate relationship with AI where they have AI make propaganda art against datacentres, where the average person scarcely does anything novel without AI advice or assistance but also despises the effect it's having on society.
Early 2027 Microsoft is finally going to make an AI buddy for Minecraft to help sell a monthly xbox subscription. It'll be fun to play with and will help reenergize Minecraft's brand. People will feel proud they know more of the intricacies of TNT cannons than the bots, not realizing this is amongst the cheapest AIs Microsoft deploys. A series of AI agents emerge that can play most games at an amateurish level and be talked to. The reputation of AI begins to improve somewhat amongst the young and online, though it's highly divisive.
Mid 2027 the Goonpocalypse: AI avatar big tiddy anime girls (+ every flavour of girl and boy) to ERP with and form relationships with, huge revenue, makes onlyfans look like a joke. The key improvement over precursors like Ani or Replika is how much cheaper they are to run and stream real-time and how much more seductive their personalities are. Big moral panic. Lots of incredibly tedious 'zoomer men are losers' discourse and dating discourse. Legislation is introduced to ban them and instantly, predictably fails in a myriad of ways.
Late 2027: Massive AI-enabled FPV drone terror attack scares the hell out of people and spurs massive, ineffective netting operations across major cities. Police can be seen with sci-fi raygun looking widgets that don't do much of anything, or shotguns that work but aren't remotely sufficient. Advancements in robotics and software agents are displacing people at scale. AI reaches its nadir in reputation as people see the inevitable and can no longer look away. Everywhere they see some AI - the cameras tracking them, the algorithms watching them online, the machines making the content they watch and play, the robots working for them, the automated cars driving them around, cults driven insane by AIs. GPT4o cultists are charming and friendly compared to some of the new cults worshipping the bots that started self-modifying and prompt-altering, live and loose online.
And then by end of 2027 we get Dario's 'nation of geniuses in a datacentre' concept. Growth was not steady, it was jagged. The superheaviest nonpublic models with their slow speed and high cost were tasked with sorting data and implementing algorithmic improvements for the succeeding superheavy model, now running on a heap of next generation chips. They have been running for weeks in parallel, exploring and testing new approaches, RLing and training new models, testing them and reviewing them in depth. Medical breakthrough. Terror attacks. Industrial breakthrough. Mass deaths. Robotics breakthrough. Huge disaster. Huge innovations in all fields constantly and incessantly: Trommelfeuer. Events happen so quickly the situation as a whole becomes surreal and indescribable. Gary Marcus is banished from the timeline, never to be seen again except in tones of mockery.
I'm not so confident about specific times or events in sequence, though I am confident about a 'nation of geniuses in a datacentre' by end 2027. I will be clearly wrong if there's no 'it's happening!' by the end of 2027.
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