RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
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User ID: 317
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
5hr ago
China does not GAF, they want to make money.
And who has more money, the Israelis or the Arabs? China's official stance is pro-Palestinian, being anti-Israeli fits with their whole BRICS thirdworldism ethos. Iran is a friend of China, Israel is on the other side.
The moment America stops shielding Israel, stops debanking and harassing anyone who goes against Israel, the whole structure comes crashing down both militarily and economically. Boomer evangelicals are dwindling in relevance.
Expelling another million people and creating another migration disaster is not going to make Israel any friends in Turkey or Europe and will only bring forward disaster. America routinely throws allies under the bus, so too will be the fate of the 'greatest ally'.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
8hr ago
Past a certain point, sanctions are going to come down and then Israel is finished. A large country can withstand sanctions, small countries with fragile high tech economies cannot. The Germany 1939 gambit of securing more lebensraum and expelling ethnic enemies only works if you're a big country with a large army.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
8hr ago
This is the first war in which one of the adversaries is going strictly after the elite and is able to actually get them. Which is actually the right way to wage war.
If ukraine and russia could reasonably kill each other's key people - there would have been peace years ago.
Why are people still stuck on this idea?
Israel tried this with Hamas and Hezbollah. Did it work? Did the flashy assassinations achieve victory? Did Israel destroy Hamas and conquer Gaza? No! If they couldn't destroy a small, poor organization in territory they totally surround with total air control, how are they supposed to defeat Iran?
All Israel managed to achieve in a couple years of fighting is killing a fair few of Hamas, killing a lot of civilians, blowing up a lot of buildings, making the Russians of all people look like positive humanitarians. Unlike the Russians, they made zero territorial gains. And they made people trust pagers a lot less, hate Israel a lot more.
Israeli military practice is so bad it should be first, second and third in 'what not to do'. They suffer an embarassingly big terrorist attack from a foe they should totally outclass. Then they totally fail to capitalize on it in world opinion, quite the reverse. They fail to secure any strategic advantages whatsoever with their much vaunted military, despite enormous expenditure of US munitions. Maybe a few months ago they could claim 'oh at least we decapitated Hezbollah' but Hezbollah seems to have just grown another head like a hydra and are taking huge bites out of the Iron Dome.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1d ago
But if those small companies go under, who cares? It won't have much economic effect, startups go under all the time. That's capitalism.
It's the hyperscalers who are too big and rich to go under and Nvidia that matter.
Suppose OpenAI collapses because of all their debt and spending. There'd just be a feeding frenzy as Microsoft just takes over their researchers, Anthropic and Google gain marketshare, maybe Chinese companies also make gains.
I guess that's what you're saying about the tech not going away but I don't see how anything would significantly change. People would just go to Gemini instead of 'Chat'. Kling or Seedance or Grok Imagine instead of Sora. What would the bubble popping actually mean?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1d ago
But why is this even the right frame of looking at things? If it looks really powerful and useful, probably it is just really valuable. There might be reasons why it isn't but they should be specific.
What has tech been doing for the last 10 years besides AI? I can't think of any great improvement between 2012 and 2022. More irritating ads, having to subscribe to Microsoft Office, VR headsets with a handful of good games... Incremental advancements at best.
But now if I want to do something with a computer, I can get an AI to give me precise instructions or just do it outright. That's a genuine improvement. I don't have to wade through forums or oceans of SEO + ads with a search engine. I don't have to learn to code to make and sell code commercially - they seem to enjoy it and find it very helpful. I can just have it output niche, highly specific pieces of writing just for me, on a whim.
The technology sector has finally contributed something positive after about 10-20 years of resting on their laurels and now people are complaining about a bubble, it seems bizarre to me. This is putting aside all the scientific innovation and prospects of superintelligence.
Between 1995 and 2000, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%. It reached a price–earnings ratio of 200
Cisco had a P/E of 200 back in the day, Nvidia is in the 30s and is the largest company in the world. Where is the bubble? Is it just isolated to the AI pureplay companies like Anthropic or OpenAI who aren't profitable because of all the R&D they're doing?
I know it's cliched to say 'this time it's different' but if it looks different, then it probably is different? Maybe OpenAI has just gone down too many paths and finds that short-form video is not cost-effective since it caters to a population of poor people trying to game porn restrictions and upsets influencers/artists who love to hate AI video. Whereas selling coding AI actually makes lots of money, so they're redirecting compute for business use. In my experience it's far harder to make a profit selling AI to consumers than it is to businesses.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2d ago
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/iran-says-thai-ship-allowed-to-pass-the-strait-of-hormuz
The Iranians have established a safe passage between the islands of Qeshm and Larak in the straits. Friendly tankers can go through the approved sealane, perhaps after paying a 2 million dollar fee. Unfriendly tankers can be sunk.
I'm begging people to read more deeply about what's going on!
And a lot of the AI investment that we're seeing in the US adds to Taiwanese GDP and it adds to Korean GDP but not really that much to US GDP.
How can this be?
NVIDIA's revenue for fiscal year 2026 (ending January 25, 2026) was $215.94 billion
Nvidia revenue would be roughly 0.7% of US GDP if it were all in America. Nvidia margin is about 75%. So 25% of revenue goes to manufacturers in Korea or Taiwan. Maybe another 25% is foreign employees, operating expenses abroad. At least 50% of Nvidia should be derived as US economic activity. The chips are designed in the US after all. That's a cool 100 billion dollars or 0.3% of GDP, nothing to sneeze at.
Then there are all the other AI hardware companies like AVGO, the cloud providers like Azure or AWS, the AI companies themselves.
How could people possibly be building these gigantic datacentres and not have that picked up in GDP? https://youtube.com/watch?v=VLgDvjcvURc
There's another more technical point which is that some of the AI investment as the AI investment directly in semiconductors isn't actually classified as investment in the national income and product accounts. It's classified as intermediate inputs.
If GDP is somehow not measuring the impact of AI investment then so much the worse for the GDP calculators I think. And it's not even clear that this is the case, EY seems to disagree:
https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/ai/ai-powered-growth
AI-driven capital spending – especially in software and computing – has become a major growth engine, fueling an impressive 1 percentage point (ppt) boost to GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 alone
I don't know if EY knows better than Goldman Sachs, I don't have a high opinion of either. However, I think that there are lots of people who want to hear that the bubble is popping and grasp for any sign that it is.
Imagine that it was the 1910s and tractors were the big new thing. Obviously tractors raise agricultural productivity. But maybe they're kind of unreliable, maintenance for this new technology is a bitch, maybe the methods for using them aren't well-established, maybe there's some difficult soil where the tractors get bogged down, maybe fuel distribution in the countryside isn't well-developed. There are lots of conservative farmers around. One could easily produce convincing anti-tractor arguments and examples. But in general, tractors would still remain the future of agriculture, profitable to produce and use. You could derive this from first principles, considering the power of engines and their utility vs horses. There was no tractor bubble, there is no AI bubble.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2d ago
How so? I remember that everyone shunned the Leninists because Marxism specifically said there would be no revolution in Russia because the industrial working class wasn't developed, hadn't fully reached capitalism. But then Leninism worked while revolution in Germany and Britain was a total failure. All the orthodox Marxists died out and Marxism-Leninism replaced them. Isn't this a relatively straightforward Leninist approach?
I guess there's a big element of 'waiting for revolutionary conditions' but I emphasised that already?
It really depends on it being the 'right time', delegitimization of traditional authorities and persuading a good chunk of the military to join up with the People. The US security forces have certain leftist leanings and maybe the upper officer class too.
Maybe drones democratize combat power such that you can take on any reactionary forces that move in too quickly...
I don't think this plan is desirable or workable really. But how else are you supposed to bring back a dead ideology like Marxism-Leninism?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3d ago
he's creamed other smart people in a presidential debate, for instance
Trump can be highly charismatic and adept at manipulating the media without being strategically intelligent as a President, without being a wise leader, without knowing or caring about details, without being able to gauge the competence of advisers and officials, without mastering the institutions he nominally runs.
I think people have an excessively Manichean view of intelligence. It's not that smart people are always better leaders. You can have an intelligent and hard working man fully committed to nation-wrecking ideologies who devotes his intellect to gaslight people to further his wrecking of the country... A stupid leader could run rings around him. Trump has done this at times.
But while you don't have to be smart to do a good job it certainly helps. Intelligence and good judgement is vital for making critical decisions and achieving good outcomes.
Would an intelligent president launch a shambolic tariff campaign against US allies, allies who at times are needed to provide the capital goods for American reindustrialization? Or even start this war that all the other presidents have shied away from? Even at the heights of US power in the 2000s they were unwilling to attack Iran for reasons that the administration is now discovering.
Or back in 2020, if Trump was smart he would've discovered or produced evidence of vote-rigging, not been found trying to produce evidence of vote-rigging.
If Trump were smart he'd organize a clear justification for the war, not have different officials give different adhoc explanations. Certainly not have Rubio out there saying that it was because Israel was about to attack, which may well be true but shouldn't be admitted. He'd explain what the goal is and how the campaign will achieve it. The campaign would be planned out in advance so the necessary forces were there, not bringing in Marines belatedly. He'd be consistent and coherent, not idly proposing that the US and the Ayatollah jointly control the straits of Hormuz, threatening to blow up power plants, walking back threats, saying the war is simultaneously over and needs to continue.
Q: You said the war is 'very complete.' But your defense secretary says 'this is just the beginning.' So which is it?
TRUMP: You could say both
It's dumb. The approach we're observing is a show of weakness, it gives the Iranians hope that if they cause enough pain Trump will chicken out. TACO is just an observation of this inconstancy, it's one of many obvious flaws in the pattern Trump has shown - sensitivity to markets. Even if Trump had been consistent, without the intelligence to formulate good strategies they still wouldn't work. Tariffs alone cannot industrialize America, you'd need judicious and well-executed industrial policy. Air war with Iran isn't going to produce regime change and will have huge costs, this should've been known at the start but wasn't. He needed a rigorous understanding of what can and cannot be done with various forces, considering the balance of power.
I agree that Trump has a strategy but it's dumb, based on false premises.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3d ago
I don't deny that Leninism works, it clearly does. All the theorycel anarcho-syndicalism and similar kinds of socialism never got off the ground.
Also, is it really Leninism that results in state responsiveness to issues or is that just proficient administration?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3d ago
Now, if you are inclined to laugh at the outgroup, show how would you do better. Your homework, your hypothetical scenario for today is:
Picture this: January 6th but the protestors bring guns and launch a real coup.
$250 M is peanuts in terms of 'marketing campaigns' but it is a lot of guns and ammo. Obviously you'd need to wait for a good time, during some kind of major crisis when govt authority is weakened. But then you drive in with your comrades and do some shooting and see how it goes from there. If opposition is limpwristed, divided and feckless enough maybe you can get away with it.
Marxism-Leninism is an ideology of shooting, not theory. The Vanguard Party and democratic centralism ideas are almost overtly anti-theorycel. Vanguardism means 'we know better than the plebs how the country should be run and we're going to take over forcefully', democratic centralism means 'shut up and obey the Party Line'.
If you let people vote all you get is democratic socialism not ML. Nobody is going to vote to lose their SUVs and WFH lazygirl jobs. You don't give them the chance to vote, not if you want ML. Nobody ever voted in a communist regime that did real communism (collectivization and nationalization communism), bullets are the way to go.
90% of this is 'waiting for the right time' though. Being lucky is also very important.
If the straits actually open, then logically the Iranians have chickened out. If Trump says he'll bomb power plants unless the straits are opened and then doesn't, doesn't it follow that he chickened out?
Yet gradually, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei opened up. The spokesperson said: “Over the past few days, messages arrived through some friendly countries indicating America’s request for negotiations to end the war, which were responded to appropriately and in accordance with the country’s principled positions – Iran’s stance regarding the strait of Hormuz and the conditions for ending the imposed war has not changed.”
Doesn't seem like much cause for hope, the Israelis will presumably try their hardest to wreck the whole thing. Negotiations at this point seem to be both sides issuing maximalist demands at eachother.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3d ago
Well he just chickened out, didn't he? He said 'oh we're having productive discussions, deadline is pushed back 5 days' while Iran denies any such negotiations and sticks to their position.
Orange man does seem to be dumb. He's been signalling weakness the whole time with these bizarre market-manipulation/weekend proclamations. Inconstancy and incoherence weakens your position in war of choice where Iran's strategy is to damage the world economy and outlast the enemy.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
4d ago
Trump declared victory on day 2 but the key thing about declaring victory is that first you have to actually win... If you declare victory and the other side keeps fighting then you've lost.
Why would Iran cease hostilities only for Trump to attack them again in 6 months time, like last time? How are they supposed to negotiate with an America that constantly tears up agreements with them, with Israelis that bomb their foreign ministers, with assassination attacks when they gather to discuss negotiations? Do they want to turn into Syria, which can apparently just be bombed and invaded by everyone, which has virtually disintegrated as a state? Do they want to turn into Lebanon?
There's a hoary old cliche where people say 'the only thing _____ understands is force'. In this instance, it's not quite right since Trump is interested in both wealth and force. But the general idea stands. If the diplomats are assassinated or otherwise sidelined, then there can only be a military resolution.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
4d ago
I'm inclining towards TACO. Trump is at heart a businessman, why would he want to blow up all this energy infrastructure? He wants to somehow secure the oil, not wreck it. He's been badly misinformed by his 'advisers' but a man who constantly times announcements to game the markets should be relied upon to try and sustain markets.
Also, why are we treating random proclamations on Truth Social like they mean anything? He's declared victory several times, he's made vague nuclear threats, he's just making up nonsense.
But the whole thing has been one unforced error after another, so who can say what will happen?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
5d ago
Well they've been hitting back at Israeli nuclear sites just today, the town next to their nuclear facility I believe. So it's safe to say their missile arsenal remains operational.
RIP fuel imports... Not holding my breath for this latest threat to be effective.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
6d ago
Are you the Iran Propaganda Minister?
There's clearly a huge gulf between our information sources on this war. You and I are not commentating on the same conflict, at a fundamental level. Maybe you're listening to the mainstream, 'approved' sources. I too saw a little bit of them. On day 1 they were clearly expecting some kind of mass revolution that overthrows the regime. They were clearly delusional. These are the same people who just recycle atrocity propaganda and 'Israeli government sources confirm' or 'US military announces' as news.
If the war was going well, would the Trump administration really be unsanctioning Iranian oil? They're flailing around like a drowning man.
Yet Israel's territory has grown larger over time? They gave Sinai back to Egypt after taking Sinai off Egypt, OK. They didn't give back the Golan heights to Syria, they've recently taken more land off Syria. They've been busily taking land off Palestinians in the West Bank for years now, knocking people's houses down or just stealing their houses. Right now they're going into Lebanon perhaps looking to seize more land.
They have this comically villainous strategy in the 'mosquito protocol', using Gazan civilians as human shields, making them enter buildings ahead of IDF troops to clear out explosives or booby traps.
Or they just take potshots at peaceful protestors in Gaza, back in 2019: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2019/03/one-year-on-from-protests-gaza-civilians-devastating-injuries-highlight-urgent-need-for-arms-embargo-on-israel/
They had huge protests rallying behind soldiers who were briefly arrested for raping prisoners, in support of that kind of activity. You can actually watch video of the Israeli soldiers forming up in this cluster around a prisoner with shields on their backs to block the camera from seeing exactly what happens. There's actual video of an Israeli govt minister saying 'for them, anything is permitted' with regard to sodomizing prisoners with metal objects. The pro-rape faction seems to have decisively won, with the soldiers being freed of all charges.
Countries are formed by taking land, that's how it works. The essence of warfare is inflicting pain and suffering to reach a political goal. But Israel behaves in an especially egregious way for a supposed liberal democracy. Simultaneously they whine and bitch about anti-semitism and claim to be the victim whenever anyone criticises them. Amnesty international is apparently antisemitic, the UN is antisemitic, that American girl they ran over with a bulldozer was probably antisemitic, along with the USS Liberty survivors who maintain they were deliberately attacked. All these Palestinians were born into this world with hatred of Israel in their hearts, we are led to believe. It takes two to tango.
The Israelis go around complaining about Hamas using human shields while they do it themselves. They complain about the terrorism of others when their country was founded by terrorists - they shot a UN-appointed Swedish diplomat Bernadotte for being too pro-Arab, they captured and executed British troops, planned false-flag attacks against the West in Egypt and run a uniquely murderous intelligence agency in Mossad. It's a very obnoxious way for a country to behave. And yet their cheerleaders in the West like PragerU will say that the IDF is the 'most moral army'.
The hypocrisy upsets lots of people. Israel should be treated with the same naked contempt and grasping opportunism they treat other countries. They should be left to fight their own wars, use their own weapons, pay for them too. America has just plunged the world into a major economic crisis over their obsession with Israel, it's not at all a minor issue.
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