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SophisticatedHillbilly


				

				

				

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joined 2022 December 04 20:18:48 UTC
				

				

				

				

				

				

					
				

				

				
				
				

				
User ID: 1964


				
				
				

			

		

	














	


		


			



	

		

			

			

				

					

						

							
						

						

							
							

								
SophisticatedHillbilly


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				

				
				
				

				

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					joined 2022 December 04 20:18:48 UTC
				


				
					

					
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User ID: 1964


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
					



		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
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	 Hot Bump Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 6, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
While I agree with your point and generally am opposed to simply handwaving away all the details on how exactly we will par for things, I think the USA might actually be an example where this is true.


The state has immense resources at it's disposal, and almost certainly could give a comfortable life to everyone if it tried to do so without raising taxes or the like.. Of course, this would require cutting costs in other areas, and more importantly it would require cutting cost disease and corruption. Tough to provide for your citizens when the budget is stretched to its limit on $200 aspirins and $100,000 sinecures.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I have a story for this. I was a good but lazy student in primary school. I once received a report card in which, in the official "Absences" section, I was listed as having missed 5 days of school. Scrawled by hand on the back of the page was "SophisticatedHillbilly has missed over 3 weeks of school."


It was rather funny to see the contrast all in one place like that, though I appreciate their willingness to bend the rules for me. It definitely did me more good than sitting in school a bit longer.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Actually, sexuality as well I would think. Any time I've viewed a particular strain of porn over an extended period, it's certainly influenced my inclinations and attractions in the real world as well. I won't give specifics, but some of these went rather far. I believe the porn treadmill is a decently well-known phenomena.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
To the former, so be it. To the latter: There is probably a non-zero number of parents who would push their children to do so I suppose, but any employer that allowed it would probably be being watched by the FBI pretty closely. And of course, so would be anyone who attended such a strip-club. I'm also 99% sure that the parents who would make their children work as strippers probably aren't raising their children very effectively in the counterfactual world where that's illegal, they're just doing other things that are in the privacy of their own homes. All rights will inevitably be abused. That does not make the rights bad or mean we shouldn't have them.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yes, I would absolutely consider them illegitimate.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
None, short of murder, violence that causes permanent or long-term physical harm, or selling them into slavery.


The breadth of parenting options should basically range from "take them to the drag show" to "don't even let them look at a person of the other gender"


This is a case where I actually genuinely believe that "Everyone gets to follow their own values" is actually legitimately superior to "everyone adheres to my values." I have parenting methods that I think are best. But those are methods for parenting MY children, made of MY genes. If everyone did them it would probably be a disaster.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Same, and it bothered me a bit because I was like "I don't even remember interacting with them! What could it mean?"


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
As mentioned in my other comment, the problem is that food, while a comparatively small portion of the budget, is one of the only parts that is highly flexible. This means that food, and a few other flexible spends, bear all the weight of the lost money from the inflexible spends increasing in price. This adds a sort of salt-in-the-wound effect when the food is more expensive as well. I think this is a big part of why people fixate on food prices in particular.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The other problem is that the job got a lot harder. We have basically invented entire new classes of food since then, and more importantly there's been a lot of population mixing. Given that the optimal diet for one group (not even race, much narrower genetic groups than that) can be completely opposite that of another, it's a damn hard nut to crack now.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Additionally, part of it for me is the expense breakdown and where the cuts have to be made. There are several unavoidable expenses, and a very small field of adjustable expenses. As such, all tightening of the belt has to be done out of a very small portion of the overall budget.


Heating, and gas cannot be adjusted. I already use them as little as possible, and any further reduction would be stupid and harmful. Any increase in heating or gas costs then, has to be cut out of something else. Hard goods (furniture, dishware, clothing, appliances etc) likewise cannot be adjusted, as I pay nothing for them (hooray Facebook Marketplace!)


Food and other consumables can be adjusted, but only by dropping in quality noticably. Because this is my only flex point, it is where almost all of the change in standard of living occurs. Say my overall spending power drops by 10%. That's not a lot, but this category makes up only 20% of my spending, and is the only area where change can occur, so I have to take a very large hit to the quality of consumables just to break even. This hurts a lot. Eating cheaper makes me feel worse, noticably, both physically and emotionally.


I think many experience a similar effect. If only 10% of your budget is discretionary spending and your real purchasing power drops by 10%, you now have no discretionary spending money at all. That is a massive hit to quality of life. Straight from "well I work a lot but I get fun outings and the occasional vacation," all the way to "I literally just work to live to continue working."


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Transnational Thursdays 23
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
There are a lot of rules against building houses, and I don't consider building houses ever being a problem exactly. Wouldn't surprise me if Prohibition was similar, just one group pushing their strategically optimal set of values, damn the societal consequences.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Transnational Thursdays 23
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This is absolutely true, and if for no other reasons it's because the major cities are so unbelievably undersupplied in housing. This estimate puts it at a need for over 4 million more housing units in San Francisco alone being needed: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/us-housing-gap-cost-affordability-big-cities/672184/


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Transnational Thursdays 23
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yeah the only way housing is coming down is if building housing becomes immensely faster/easier/cheaper (which will never happen because homeowners won't allow it) or if the population goes into decline (which will never happen because the powers that be will never allow our Ponzi scheme of an economy to collapse.)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Transnational Thursdays 23
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
In my experience of living in multiple Red areas that were (or are) undergoing development booms, it's that Red Tribe people generally are effectively YIMBY, or at least YIEBYBINMJTTYWTDWYL (Yes in everyone's back yard because it's not my job to tell you what to do with your land.)


As a very strong example, I once lived in a rural area gradually on the edge of becoming suburban. The state and county has long had a policy of "fence me out" in regards to animals. That is, if I have animals, and you don't want them to wander into your property, then fence me out. You can't make me build a fence, it's my land after all. There was a lot of conflict over this with the newcomers, and eventually transplants pushed to change the law. Locals never tried to block the new development, but they did try to block any changes that made things more restrictive or added rules. Eventually they were outnumbered, and now it's pretty typical city government with your standard NIMBY rules, and the culture I love continues to vanish.


It's one of the many reasons people say "don't bring California with you" when people move from more populous areas.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				The Overkill Conspiracy Hypothesis
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I can second the recommendation. It's my favorite book on the topic.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 16, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Fair. I guess my impression is that state governments are nearly just as broken, or at least we'll on the way. Plus, the things that do require federal approval are rather important.


I mean there's: nearly all large scale farming and mining, most (all?) energy production, pharmaceuticals (both new production of old drugs and new drugs,) and many imports, just off the top of my head.


It's not like all that will stop with a broken government, but the anarchotyrranic effects will only get stronger.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 16, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Don't underestimate the ability of a broken government to get in the way though. The government offices being empty doesn't mean buildings get built without approval, it merely means that nothing can be approved at all, so nothing will be built. The enforcement wing is sadly usually the last to break, so it can continue preventing action long after it has lost the capability to allow it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for October 18, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
That's fair. Entirely possible it just varies based on the social circle. I can only go based on what I've seen and heard.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for October 18, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think you're short on what I would call Tier 2 social events, and heavy on Tier 1 events.


Tier 1 events are things like the Meetups where people would have to make a conscious effort to seek them out, or have minimal opportunity for extended social or physical interaction. Women don't usually attend these (relative to men at least) unless they're extremely female-oriented activities, or are an opportunity to show off (think dancing/clubs/bars)


Tier 2 social events are things like house-parties where you have to be invited by either the host or someone else who was invited. As you can expect, single women tend to get invited to things more than single men, so it creates a good ratio. The purpose of Tier 1 events is to make friends to invite you to Tier 2 events. Parties, formal events etc. This is where the "make female friends" advice comes in, but really just "make friends that are either female or sexually/romantically/socially successful is probably more accurate.


Typically, all social networks are comprised of interconnected social Hub People, each of who is a center of a social circle comprised of Spoke People who are connected to the rest of the group (other than 1 or 2 people) through the Hub. If you've ever met one of those guys who just seems to know everybody everywhere, that's a Hub. If you aren't a Hub, then you have to find one.


P.s. (I suppose there's probably a distinct Tier 3 sort of event, like a sex party or orgy, where you more or less know you're going to be sexually involved, but I've never participated in such things.)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The problem for Russia is that they have not finished paying costs.




True, but I guess I'm not just expecting their costs to mount much higher without a proportionally larger gain. The front has largely stagnated. Any operations large enough to move the meter would also be liable to shred what's left of Ukraine's fighting population and end with much larger land gains.




Russia is not really having shortage of land, this is not a Singapore.




It's not about square footage, it's about production capability. Major steel manufacturing industries, a very significant chunk of farmland, some of the world's larger lithium deposits and (if they can push into Kharkiv province,) significant natural gas deposits. For western countries that are living on their inheritance, things like that aren't too important. For everyone else, resource extraction is vital. Even what they've taken now is a win. In the case of unconditional surrender? It becomes the biggest material win any country has had since World War II.


When thinking about the land gains through conquest, it's worth looking at through a lens of "How much would you have to pay to acquire that area and everything in it minus the people?" There is no way anyone could acquire it cheaper than the price Russia will pay for the war.


Now of course, all of this is predicated on "If they can keep it," but with the combination of nuclear MAD and the unwillingness of any other major powers to step into a full-scale hot war, that seems likely.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Well yes, that's the point of the boil-the-frog style gradual centralization. I don't expect them to achieve it anytime soon. More like 100 years from now.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Russia will not get more powerful as result of that adventure




No, but they will acquire 62,000 sq mi of land that is better than most of the land that they currently possess. And the cost is what? Weapons that would have expired anyway? Some consumer goods shortages for things that no population actually needs to begin with? 180,000 men? That's only 3 men per square mile, a hell of a deal! And that of course is leaving out the possibility of Russia winning anything more than it has already gotten.


Maybe there are some more extreme long-term costs that I'm not seeing, but I really don't think so. What move could possibly have better contributed to Russia's long-term overall position.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I mean, it's still a long ways off from being centralized enough. It doesn't even have a single unified military structure. The change a few years ago to be able to take on debt at the federal level was a big move in the right(?) direction though.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Simple:


    

  1. The longer this world goes on, the more of the sinners who can be saved.
    2. 

  2. While the actual end result is a total victory, the time just before that is expected to be horrific beyond anything that humanity has ever experienced. Most people don't want to go through that sooner than necessary.
    3. 



				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
An increasingly centralized EU could be a world power if it takes the direction that the US did early on and gradually become a single state. Barring that, no single EU state is powerful enough to qualify, and too restrained by the rest of the EU to flex the requiref muscles.


Russia will likely be more of a regional power than a world power, I agree. However, do not underestimate the psychological impact that backing the losing horse has on international opinion. Ukraine will likely lose the war, which means Team USA lost the war.


Doesn't matter how costly it was to Russia, it demonstrates that even very heavy US backing doesn't protect you against even a dysfunctional regional power, which means many smaller states will look elsewhere, such as forming their own regional blocks.