naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
The atmosphere right now reminds me a lot of the post 9-11, war on terror vibes. The US is about to get dragged into some middle eastern conflicts by Israel. The propaganda parrots, "patriots", Zionists, and arm chair generals repulse me. The US is led by a geriatric imbecile, our economy is hanging on by a thread, our weapon and oil stockpiles are depleted, our reputation is dwindling and our allies are weak or disappearing. This will not end well for the US. Unfortunately, I think the train has left the station. I hope this will be worth it.
Personally, I think this is the end of Zionism. Public perception has changed and the propaganda doesn't work like it used to. Israel might actually get fucked now. I feel we are in for large societal and cultural changes, as well as a geopolitical reordering if not WW3.
Can you explain more on the geopolitical reordering and third World Wars fears? I agree the current events strain belief in a continuing Pax Americana. But I really don't know what happens next.
I see the Ukrainian conflict as similar to the Spanish civil war, with other powers arming and watching to see how the technology and weapons work in actual warfare, and taking notes for the future. It feels a like such a bigger event than anything else scale-wise; and now Hamas attacking Israel has the potential to further draw international divisions.
IMO, we are moving to a multi-polar world with the powers being US, Russia, and China. During this transition the powers are trying to find their place in the new hegemony and we are seeing the areas of friction such as the war in Ukraine and now a looming war in the ME. Our rivals, seeing us weakened, are likely to take the opportunities to strike or make moves for their own position.
The ME is kind of a wildcard IMO as they are not organized, and without a regional polar power, split themselves between US and Russia as protectorates. This conflict has the possibility to provide a unifying rallying cry for the Arab states. You can see the reshuffling of the cards now with the diplomatic disposition of Saudi Arabia and Jordan to name a few.
Again IMO, I think this is signalling the end of Pax Americana and our leadership is just not capable of realizing it. Russia will win and gain some clout, some ME countries will throw off the yoke of the US, and I await a Chinese flex. I'm not sure exactly how things will play out but it seems like something is going to happen in these calamitous geopolitical environments.
we are moving to a multi-polar world with the powers being US, Russia, and China.
Russia? Are you serious? Freaking EU is more powerful, after taking into account that it is amorphous blob of various countries.
Russia is flailing in war against its former vassal. Yes, Ukraine has some supplies from USA, other former Russian vassals and NATO, plus some bonuses.
An increasingly centralized EU could be a world power if it takes the direction that the US did early on and gradually become a single state. Barring that, no single EU state is powerful enough to qualify, and too restrained by the rest of the EU to flex the requiref muscles.
Russia will likely be more of a regional power than a world power, I agree. However, do not underestimate the psychological impact that backing the losing horse has on international opinion. Ukraine will likely lose the war, which means Team USA lost the war.
Doesn't matter how costly it was to Russia, it demonstrates that even very heavy US backing doesn't protect you against even a dysfunctional regional power, which means many smaller states will look elsewhere, such as forming their own regional blocks.
An increasingly centralized EU could be a world power if it takes the direction that the US did early on and gradually become a single state. Barring that, no single EU state is powerful enough to qualify, and too restrained by the rest of the EU to flex the requiref muscles.
That's always how the EU, and each step of centralization, was sold. But who knows, maybe superpowerdom is just around the corner.
I mean, it's still a long ways off from being centralized enough. It doesn't even have a single unified military structure. The change a few years ago to be able to take on debt at the federal level was a big move in the right(?) direction though.
I mean, it's still a long ways off from being centralized enough. It doesn't even have a single unified military structure.
for start, idea of EU-as-a-superstate does not even have a clear support
it does not even have well unified goals, and even shared projects to produce weaponry were far from success as different countries have massively different needs and priorities
Right now "single unified military structure" is nonstarter. Though there are some very local unifications.
Well yes, that's the point of the boil-the-frog style gradual centralization. I don't expect them to achieve it anytime soon. More like 100 years from now.
Or something that will end up dragging the continent to the bottom, because the whole structure is corrupt by design. We'll find out eventually, I suppose.
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Notes -
The atmosphere right now reminds me a lot of the post 9-11, war on terror vibes. The US is about to get dragged into some middle eastern conflicts by Israel. The propaganda parrots, "patriots", Zionists, and arm chair generals repulse me. The US is led by a geriatric imbecile, our economy is hanging on by a thread, our weapon and oil stockpiles are depleted, our reputation is dwindling and our allies are weak or disappearing. This will not end well for the US. Unfortunately, I think the train has left the station. I hope this will be worth it.
Personally, I think this is the end of Zionism. Public perception has changed and the propaganda doesn't work like it used to. Israel might actually get fucked now. I feel we are in for large societal and cultural changes, as well as a geopolitical reordering if not WW3.
Can you explain more on the geopolitical reordering and third World Wars fears? I agree the current events strain belief in a continuing Pax Americana. But I really don't know what happens next.
I see the Ukrainian conflict as similar to the Spanish civil war, with other powers arming and watching to see how the technology and weapons work in actual warfare, and taking notes for the future. It feels a like such a bigger event than anything else scale-wise; and now Hamas attacking Israel has the potential to further draw international divisions.
IMO, we are moving to a multi-polar world with the powers being US, Russia, and China. During this transition the powers are trying to find their place in the new hegemony and we are seeing the areas of friction such as the war in Ukraine and now a looming war in the ME. Our rivals, seeing us weakened, are likely to take the opportunities to strike or make moves for their own position.
The ME is kind of a wildcard IMO as they are not organized, and without a regional polar power, split themselves between US and Russia as protectorates. This conflict has the possibility to provide a unifying rallying cry for the Arab states. You can see the reshuffling of the cards now with the diplomatic disposition of Saudi Arabia and Jordan to name a few.
Again IMO, I think this is signalling the end of Pax Americana and our leadership is just not capable of realizing it. Russia will win and gain some clout, some ME countries will throw off the yoke of the US, and I await a Chinese flex. I'm not sure exactly how things will play out but it seems like something is going to happen in these calamitous geopolitical environments.
Russia? Are you serious? Freaking EU is more powerful, after taking into account that it is amorphous blob of various countries.
Russia is flailing in war against its former vassal. Yes, Ukraine has some supplies from USA, other former Russian vassals and NATO, plus some bonuses.
An increasingly centralized EU could be a world power if it takes the direction that the US did early on and gradually become a single state. Barring that, no single EU state is powerful enough to qualify, and too restrained by the rest of the EU to flex the requiref muscles.
Russia will likely be more of a regional power than a world power, I agree. However, do not underestimate the psychological impact that backing the losing horse has on international opinion. Ukraine will likely lose the war, which means Team USA lost the war.
Doesn't matter how costly it was to Russia, it demonstrates that even very heavy US backing doesn't protect you against even a dysfunctional regional power, which means many smaller states will look elsewhere, such as forming their own regional blocks.
That's always how the EU, and each step of centralization, was sold. But who knows, maybe superpowerdom is just around the corner.
I mean, it's still a long ways off from being centralized enough. It doesn't even have a single unified military structure. The change a few years ago to be able to take on debt at the federal level was a big move in the right(?) direction though.
for start, idea of EU-as-a-superstate does not even have a clear support
it does not even have well unified goals, and even shared projects to produce weaponry were far from success as different countries have massively different needs and priorities
Right now "single unified military structure" is nonstarter. Though there are some very local unifications.
Well yes, that's the point of the boil-the-frog style gradual centralization. I don't expect them to achieve it anytime soon. More like 100 years from now.
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Or something that will end up dragging the continent to the bottom, because the whole structure is corrupt by design. We'll find out eventually, I suppose.
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