naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
The atmosphere right now reminds me a lot of the post 9-11, war on terror vibes. The US is about to get dragged into some middle eastern conflicts by Israel. The propaganda parrots, "patriots", Zionists, and arm chair generals repulse me. The US is led by a geriatric imbecile, our economy is hanging on by a thread, our weapon and oil stockpiles are depleted, our reputation is dwindling and our allies are weak or disappearing. This will not end well for the US. Unfortunately, I think the train has left the station. I hope this will be worth it.
Personally, I think this is the end of Zionism. Public perception has changed and the propaganda doesn't work like it used to. Israel might actually get fucked now. I feel we are in for large societal and cultural changes, as well as a geopolitical reordering if not WW3.
The US is about to get dragged into some middle eastern conflicts by Israel.
Very unlikely. Biden got us out of Afghanistan which is something Bush, Obama, and Trump all should have done but failed to do. He also ensured no American troops got involved in Ukraine. It's very unlikely that he'll decide to go on a rampage in the Middle East.
our economy is hanging on by a thread
It's pretty much the strongest it's ever been. Unemployment is <4%. Stock markets are near all time highs. There's inflation, but that's cooled off significantly to being basically on-target.
our weapon and oil stockpiles are depleted
Not even close. Some factors (like artillery) that the US doesn't use much of are pretty low, but new shells are always being created. For most other things the US is the same as always since we're not sending them anywhere.
The SPR has little to do with domestic consumption of oil.
our reputation is dwindling
The opposite is true. It took a big hit after Iraq, then another moderate hit during Trump, but Biden + Ukraine have gone a ways to repairing it. The chorus of "America is an evil empire" is slowly being drowned out by "America isn't great but the alternative is so much worse".
our allies are weak or disappearing
Both Germany and Japan are rearming. Europe is weaker relatively speaking compared to history since it's been basically just living off its inheritance, but it still has a significant economic footprint.
Nothing except China's actions or a possible civil conflict in the USA would do much to change these things. Certainly not Israel, Palestine, or Iran.
Inflation is almost 4%. That’s double target and btw that’s 4% on a hit elevated base.
American consumer appears to be at a breaking point (as their credit is drying up). They decrease spending and earnings tumble. Earnings tumble and stocks tumble.
The employment numbers are heavily massaged. the Philly Fed had a piece in this that the numbers aren’t consistent. MoM there have been large unlikely beats (eg six sigma). That doesn’t happen naturally. It’s rigged via adjustments.
Inflation is almost 4%. That’s double target and btw that’s 4% on a hit elevated base.
Judging inflation by multiples of the target is goofy since the target is so low in numerical terms. E.g. one could say that in May of 2020 during Trump's tenure that inflation of 0.12% was off the mark by a factor of over 16x. That sounds disastrous and is technically true, but paints an obviously biased picture. A current inflation rate of 3.7 is basically fine since the long term trend has been downward given interest rates.
American consumer appears to be at a breaking point (as their credit is drying up). They decrease spending and earnings tumble. Earnings tumble and stocks tumble.
The employment numbers are heavily massaged. the Philly Fed had a piece in this that the numbers aren’t consistent. MoM there have been large unlikely beats (eg six sigma). That doesn’t happen naturally. It’s rigged via adjustments.
Can you explain more on the geopolitical reordering and third World Wars fears? I agree the current events strain belief in a continuing Pax Americana. But I really don't know what happens next.
I see the Ukrainian conflict as similar to the Spanish civil war, with other powers arming and watching to see how the technology and weapons work in actual warfare, and taking notes for the future. It feels a like such a bigger event than anything else scale-wise; and now Hamas attacking Israel has the potential to further draw international divisions.
IMO, we are moving to a multi-polar world with the powers being US, Russia, and China. During this transition the powers are trying to find their place in the new hegemony and we are seeing the areas of friction such as the war in Ukraine and now a looming war in the ME. Our rivals, seeing us weakened, are likely to take the opportunities to strike or make moves for their own position.
The ME is kind of a wildcard IMO as they are not organized, and without a regional polar power, split themselves between US and Russia as protectorates. This conflict has the possibility to provide a unifying rallying cry for the Arab states. You can see the reshuffling of the cards now with the diplomatic disposition of Saudi Arabia and Jordan to name a few.
Again IMO, I think this is signalling the end of Pax Americana and our leadership is just not capable of realizing it. Russia will win and gain some clout, some ME countries will throw off the yoke of the US, and I await a Chinese flex. I'm not sure exactly how things will play out but it seems like something is going to happen in these calamitous geopolitical environments.
we are moving to a multi-polar world with the powers being US, Russia, and China.
Russia? Are you serious? Freaking EU is more powerful, after taking into account that it is amorphous blob of various countries.
Russia is flailing in war against its former vassal. Yes, Ukraine has some supplies from USA, other former Russian vassals and NATO, plus some bonuses.
An increasingly centralized EU could be a world power if it takes the direction that the US did early on and gradually become a single state. Barring that, no single EU state is powerful enough to qualify, and too restrained by the rest of the EU to flex the requiref muscles.
Russia will likely be more of a regional power than a world power, I agree. However, do not underestimate the psychological impact that backing the losing horse has on international opinion. Ukraine will likely lose the war, which means Team USA lost the war.
Doesn't matter how costly it was to Russia, it demonstrates that even very heavy US backing doesn't protect you against even a dysfunctional regional power, which means many smaller states will look elsewhere, such as forming their own regional blocks.
Ukraine will likely lose the war, which means Team USA lost the war.
maybe, but Russia will not get more powerful as result of that adventure. Maybe if Ukraine would unconditionally surrender today they would end ahead in total, but soon even that would not help. And in more realistic scenarios it is unqualified disaster for Russia even if they will declare mission accomplished in the end.
Russia will not get more powerful as result of that adventure
No, but they will acquire 62,000 sq mi of land that is better than most of the land that they currently possess. And the cost is what? Weapons that would have expired anyway? Some consumer goods shortages for things that no population actually needs to begin with? 180,000 men? That's only 3 men per square mile, a hell of a deal! And that of course is leaving out the possibility of Russia winning anything more than it has already gotten.
Maybe there are some more extreme long-term costs that I'm not seeing, but I really don't think so. What move could possibly have better contributed to Russia's long-term overall position.
The problem for Russia is that they have not finished paying costs.
True, but I guess I'm not just expecting their costs to mount much higher without a proportionally larger gain. The front has largely stagnated. Any operations large enough to move the meter would also be liable to shred what's left of Ukraine's fighting population and end with much larger land gains.
Russia is not really having shortage of land, this is not a Singapore.
It's not about square footage, it's about production capability. Major steel manufacturing industries, a very significant chunk of farmland, some of the world's larger lithium deposits and (if they can push into Kharkiv province,) significant natural gas deposits. For western countries that are living on their inheritance, things like that aren't too important. For everyone else, resource extraction is vital. Even what they've taken now is a win. In the case of unconditional surrender? It becomes the biggest material win any country has had since World War II.
When thinking about the land gains through conquest, it's worth looking at through a lens of "How much would you have to pay to acquire that area and everything in it minus the people?" There is no way anyone could acquire it cheaper than the price Russia will pay for the war.
Now of course, all of this is predicated on "If they can keep it," but with the combination of nuclear MAD and the unwillingness of any other major powers to step into a full-scale hot war, that seems likely.
An increasingly centralized EU could be a world power if it takes the direction that the US did early on and gradually become a single state. Barring that, no single EU state is powerful enough to qualify, and too restrained by the rest of the EU to flex the requiref muscles.
That's always how the EU, and each step of centralization, was sold. But who knows, maybe superpowerdom is just around the corner.
I mean, it's still a long ways off from being centralized enough. It doesn't even have a single unified military structure. The change a few years ago to be able to take on debt at the federal level was a big move in the right(?) direction though.
I mean, it's still a long ways off from being centralized enough. It doesn't even have a single unified military structure.
for start, idea of EU-as-a-superstate does not even have a clear support
it does not even have well unified goals, and even shared projects to produce weaponry were far from success as different countries have massively different needs and priorities
Right now "single unified military structure" is nonstarter. Though there are some very local unifications.
Well yes, that's the point of the boil-the-frog style gradual centralization. I don't expect them to achieve it anytime soon. More like 100 years from now.
Or something that will end up dragging the continent to the bottom, because the whole structure is corrupt by design. We'll find out eventually, I suppose.
This same diatribe has been written every year for the last 70 years. We’ve been in a unipolar world for about 30 years (before that it was still America first for 40 years). We’ve had Israeli Wars before it’s not a new thing. We’ve had oil embargo’s at a time when the US was dependent on importing energy. We’ve had 2 afghan wars. We’ve had Vietnam. We’ve had the Cuban missile crisis. We’ve had third world countries playing a bit of both sides.
Only one thing has begun to change and that’s the rise of China.
The fall of dollar hegemony has been on Bloomberg once a month from some goldbug every month for decades.
I see big geopolitical risks in the next few decades. There is the arrangement the west makes with China on issues. And there is the risks of the west being eaten internally by immigration. A bigger issue for those in Europe who are going to have to deal with Africas population boom and a potential tsunami of immigrant invaders of which they face a real risks of being replaced.
I’ve got a neat little book on my shelf titled “The Future of Conflict in the 1980s”. It was written at the dawn of the Reagan administration. Yes, it basically has the same concerns as @forestboomer.
New areas of friction. New conflicts over energy resources and military basing. The South China Sea was of interest, albeit for different reasons than today. Lots of emphasis on asymmetrical fights, brush wars, the strategy for US interventionism in a changing world.
I’ll have to see about writing it up one of these days.
I would be curious if the Roman Empire had people talking about its imminent collapse constantly. They probably did.
I’ve probably read 50k of the end are near articles. Someday I will be wrong discounting them. It’s most likely not tomorrow. Someone else will look like a genius just like Nouriel Roubini did once. But the genius probably wasn’t a genius and it was just dumb luck.
Russia isn't strong enough to be a pole on its own. It's certainly willing to burn a higher share of its economy and exhaust its military stockpiles to punch above its weight, but that's not sustainable in the long run. Like Iran in the ME, it has very few natural allies, which further limits its influence.
There are logistical components to this, though. If the gloves fully come off and Israel is in an existential war for survival, they have a lot of advanced weaponry and a large standing army. Most Arab armies are not particularly competent - the skilled fighting forces would be some units of the Syrian army, Hezbollah, possibly some of the IRGC and Hamas, possibly Iraqi Shia militias (although they’d have to keep many forces at home), maybe some Jordanians although my guess is they’d limit their involvement. I doubt Turkey would join a war on Israel because it would distract from the ongoing situation with the Kurds and would involve fighting with Iranians, although I suppose it’s possible. The Egyptian army isn’t built for that kind of war, and as the backbone of Sisi’s power it’s hard to see him committing to an overseas engagement, especially in defense of Hamas which is of course a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot. The Saudis are busy in Yemen and recent peace talks are floundering.
Israel isn’t guaranteed to win against the above by any means, but it’s not certain defeat either.
The Saudis and those countries also clearly want to be allies with the Israeli and its a game of dealing with some Jewish hate in Islam and their PMC viewing Israel as a very useful ally.
To me what you described seems like a multi-proxy, insurgency war within or near to the borders of Israel which is very sobering to think about. You're right though perhaps I am being too much of a doomer in regards to Israel's ability to fight this conflict, even a regional one. I think however, the idea or era of Zionism is over. As in, Israel has used all of it's grace and the global community might even make Israel give up concessions for a lasting peace.
I was alive then and it's nothing like post 9/11. A lot of people are criticizing Israel and US foreign policy in the ME right now. That definitely wasn't happening after 9/11. Also, there is a lot more sympathy for Muslims now, especially on the Left. A war for Israel would be extremely unpopular.
Me too, and I admit that the initial vibe was pretty well captured by The Onion's "We Must Retaliate With Blind Rage vs. We Must Retaliate With Measured, Focused Rage" debate. Bill Maher got bumped from ABC for saying a suicide attack wasn't "cowardly", because "murder is bad, cowardice is bad, therefore murder is cowardice" wasn't a textbook example of the Fallacy of the Undistributed Middle, it was just something Real Americans should bellyfeel.
That definitely wasn't happening after 9/11.
Depends on how long you define "after" to mean. It started happening faster than the wars did.
There was some "Voter March"/"No Blood For Oil" protest on 9/12 that only attracted a thousand protesters ... but by the time the reaction to 9/11 was clearly in motion it was attracting the largest anti-war rally in history.
What an absolute soycuck tier shit to say and feel as if you've said something profound. I've lost the last bit of respect I didn't even know I still had for Bill Maher.
I just looked it up and at one point afterwards George Bush had a 92% approval rating. I would say that is pretty different from now. Obviously you can find examples of people disagreeing, but objective measures like polling and voting show it was a much different time. That link you posted was a year and a half after 9/11.
Yeah the Afghanistan war was launched less than a month after September 11 and the rhetoric started pointing that way almost immediately. Bush started by demanding the Taliban hand over Bin Laden or else, they didn't, and the "or else" happened.
I was in college and, at least there anyway, the "we deserved it" talk was immediate, I almost want to say same day. It certainly was not the universal or even the majority opinion but it was sizable and loud.
As a high school junior at the time, my experience largely matches yours. I think 9/11/2001 had too much confusion and fog-of-war for much of a narrative to develop, especially among high school students who were in class (first day of class for my high school, actually!), but by 9/12 and certainly by 9/13, the narrative of "What did we do wrong to deserve this?" or "What did we do to drive these people to such desperation that they felt they had no choice but to lash out in this way?" were very popular, both among students and teachers.
George Bush had like a 92% approval rating. I'm sure there were Marxists and libertarians on college campuses at that time who said we deserved it but the vast majority of people were pissed off and wanted blood.
It seems funny in hindsight, but over the full 8 year terms, George W. Bush had a higher average weekly approval rating (49.4) than Barack Obama (47.9), largely based on the year or so after 9/11. In some ways, it seems like an example of how recency bias clouds expectations. But also that average approvals have been trending downward since the end of the Cold War -- perhaps indicative of larger trends of growing partisanship.
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Notes -
The atmosphere right now reminds me a lot of the post 9-11, war on terror vibes. The US is about to get dragged into some middle eastern conflicts by Israel. The propaganda parrots, "patriots", Zionists, and arm chair generals repulse me. The US is led by a geriatric imbecile, our economy is hanging on by a thread, our weapon and oil stockpiles are depleted, our reputation is dwindling and our allies are weak or disappearing. This will not end well for the US. Unfortunately, I think the train has left the station. I hope this will be worth it.
Personally, I think this is the end of Zionism. Public perception has changed and the propaganda doesn't work like it used to. Israel might actually get fucked now. I feel we are in for large societal and cultural changes, as well as a geopolitical reordering if not WW3.
Very unlikely. Biden got us out of Afghanistan which is something Bush, Obama, and Trump all should have done but failed to do. He also ensured no American troops got involved in Ukraine. It's very unlikely that he'll decide to go on a rampage in the Middle East.
It's pretty much the strongest it's ever been. Unemployment is <4%. Stock markets are near all time highs. There's inflation, but that's cooled off significantly to being basically on-target.
Not even close. Some factors (like artillery) that the US doesn't use much of are pretty low, but new shells are always being created. For most other things the US is the same as always since we're not sending them anywhere.
The SPR has little to do with domestic consumption of oil.
The opposite is true. It took a big hit after Iraq, then another moderate hit during Trump, but Biden + Ukraine have gone a ways to repairing it. The chorus of "America is an evil empire" is slowly being drowned out by "America isn't great but the alternative is so much worse".
Both Germany and Japan are rearming. Europe is weaker relatively speaking compared to history since it's been basically just living off its inheritance, but it still has a significant economic footprint.
Nothing except China's actions or a possible civil conflict in the USA would do much to change these things. Certainly not Israel, Palestine, or Iran.
Re economy
Inflation is almost 4%. That’s double target and btw that’s 4% on a hit elevated base.
American consumer appears to be at a breaking point (as their credit is drying up). They decrease spending and earnings tumble. Earnings tumble and stocks tumble.
The employment numbers are heavily massaged. the Philly Fed had a piece in this that the numbers aren’t consistent. MoM there have been large unlikely beats (eg six sigma). That doesn’t happen naturally. It’s rigged via adjustments.
Judging inflation by multiples of the target is goofy since the target is so low in numerical terms. E.g. one could say that in May of 2020 during Trump's tenure that inflation of 0.12% was off the mark by a factor of over 16x. That sounds disastrous and is technically true, but paints an obviously biased picture. A current inflation rate of 3.7 is basically fine since the long term trend has been downward given interest rates.
US wage growth is indeed slowing, but that's just because it was at historical highs for the first half of Biden's tenure. The 3 month moving average of wage increases is still higher today than at any point during Trump's tenure.
Citation needed. There are critiques of headline unemployment numbers like participation rate and marginal attachment rate, but both of those are steady or improving.
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Can you explain more on the geopolitical reordering and third World Wars fears? I agree the current events strain belief in a continuing Pax Americana. But I really don't know what happens next.
I see the Ukrainian conflict as similar to the Spanish civil war, with other powers arming and watching to see how the technology and weapons work in actual warfare, and taking notes for the future. It feels a like such a bigger event than anything else scale-wise; and now Hamas attacking Israel has the potential to further draw international divisions.
IMO, we are moving to a multi-polar world with the powers being US, Russia, and China. During this transition the powers are trying to find their place in the new hegemony and we are seeing the areas of friction such as the war in Ukraine and now a looming war in the ME. Our rivals, seeing us weakened, are likely to take the opportunities to strike or make moves for their own position.
The ME is kind of a wildcard IMO as they are not organized, and without a regional polar power, split themselves between US and Russia as protectorates. This conflict has the possibility to provide a unifying rallying cry for the Arab states. You can see the reshuffling of the cards now with the diplomatic disposition of Saudi Arabia and Jordan to name a few.
Again IMO, I think this is signalling the end of Pax Americana and our leadership is just not capable of realizing it. Russia will win and gain some clout, some ME countries will throw off the yoke of the US, and I await a Chinese flex. I'm not sure exactly how things will play out but it seems like something is going to happen in these calamitous geopolitical environments.
Russia? Are you serious? Freaking EU is more powerful, after taking into account that it is amorphous blob of various countries.
Russia is flailing in war against its former vassal. Yes, Ukraine has some supplies from USA, other former Russian vassals and NATO, plus some bonuses.
An increasingly centralized EU could be a world power if it takes the direction that the US did early on and gradually become a single state. Barring that, no single EU state is powerful enough to qualify, and too restrained by the rest of the EU to flex the requiref muscles.
Russia will likely be more of a regional power than a world power, I agree. However, do not underestimate the psychological impact that backing the losing horse has on international opinion. Ukraine will likely lose the war, which means Team USA lost the war.
Doesn't matter how costly it was to Russia, it demonstrates that even very heavy US backing doesn't protect you against even a dysfunctional regional power, which means many smaller states will look elsewhere, such as forming their own regional blocks.
maybe, but Russia will not get more powerful as result of that adventure. Maybe if Ukraine would unconditionally surrender today they would end ahead in total, but soon even that would not help. And in more realistic scenarios it is unqualified disaster for Russia even if they will declare mission accomplished in the end.
No, but they will acquire 62,000 sq mi of land that is better than most of the land that they currently possess. And the cost is what? Weapons that would have expired anyway? Some consumer goods shortages for things that no population actually needs to begin with? 180,000 men? That's only 3 men per square mile, a hell of a deal! And that of course is leaving out the possibility of Russia winning anything more than it has already gotten.
Maybe there are some more extreme long-term costs that I'm not seeing, but I really don't think so. What move could possibly have better contributed to Russia's long-term overall position.
The problem for Russia is that they have not finished paying costs.
As mentioned "Maybe if Ukraine would unconditionally surrender today they would end ahead in total".
Russia is not really having shortage of land, this is not a Singapore.
True, but I guess I'm not just expecting their costs to mount much higher without a proportionally larger gain. The front has largely stagnated. Any operations large enough to move the meter would also be liable to shred what's left of Ukraine's fighting population and end with much larger land gains.
It's not about square footage, it's about production capability. Major steel manufacturing industries, a very significant chunk of farmland, some of the world's larger lithium deposits and (if they can push into Kharkiv province,) significant natural gas deposits. For western countries that are living on their inheritance, things like that aren't too important. For everyone else, resource extraction is vital. Even what they've taken now is a win. In the case of unconditional surrender? It becomes the biggest material win any country has had since World War II.
When thinking about the land gains through conquest, it's worth looking at through a lens of "How much would you have to pay to acquire that area and everything in it minus the people?" There is no way anyone could acquire it cheaper than the price Russia will pay for the war.
Now of course, all of this is predicated on "If they can keep it," but with the combination of nuclear MAD and the unwillingness of any other major powers to step into a full-scale hot war, that seems likely.
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That's always how the EU, and each step of centralization, was sold. But who knows, maybe superpowerdom is just around the corner.
I mean, it's still a long ways off from being centralized enough. It doesn't even have a single unified military structure. The change a few years ago to be able to take on debt at the federal level was a big move in the right(?) direction though.
for start, idea of EU-as-a-superstate does not even have a clear support
it does not even have well unified goals, and even shared projects to produce weaponry were far from success as different countries have massively different needs and priorities
Right now "single unified military structure" is nonstarter. Though there are some very local unifications.
Well yes, that's the point of the boil-the-frog style gradual centralization. I don't expect them to achieve it anytime soon. More like 100 years from now.
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Or something that will end up dragging the continent to the bottom, because the whole structure is corrupt by design. We'll find out eventually, I suppose.
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This same diatribe has been written every year for the last 70 years. We’ve been in a unipolar world for about 30 years (before that it was still America first for 40 years). We’ve had Israeli Wars before it’s not a new thing. We’ve had oil embargo’s at a time when the US was dependent on importing energy. We’ve had 2 afghan wars. We’ve had Vietnam. We’ve had the Cuban missile crisis. We’ve had third world countries playing a bit of both sides.
Only one thing has begun to change and that’s the rise of China.
The fall of dollar hegemony has been on Bloomberg once a month from some goldbug every month for decades.
I see big geopolitical risks in the next few decades. There is the arrangement the west makes with China on issues. And there is the risks of the west being eaten internally by immigration. A bigger issue for those in Europe who are going to have to deal with Africas population boom and a potential tsunami of immigrant invaders of which they face a real risks of being replaced.
I’ve got a neat little book on my shelf titled “The Future of Conflict in the 1980s”. It was written at the dawn of the Reagan administration. Yes, it basically has the same concerns as @forestboomer.
New areas of friction. New conflicts over energy resources and military basing. The South China Sea was of interest, albeit for different reasons than today. Lots of emphasis on asymmetrical fights, brush wars, the strategy for US interventionism in a changing world.
I’ll have to see about writing it up one of these days.
Yes agree.
I would be curious if the Roman Empire had people talking about its imminent collapse constantly. They probably did.
I’ve probably read 50k of the end are near articles. Someday I will be wrong discounting them. It’s most likely not tomorrow. Someone else will look like a genius just like Nouriel Roubini did once. But the genius probably wasn’t a genius and it was just dumb luck.
Early Christians were pretty insistent about the imminence of the end times.
Here's a fun wiki article, too.
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Russia isn't strong enough to be a pole on its own. It's certainly willing to burn a higher share of its economy and exhaust its military stockpiles to punch above its weight, but that's not sustainable in the long run. Like Iran in the ME, it has very few natural allies, which further limits its influence.
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There are logistical components to this, though. If the gloves fully come off and Israel is in an existential war for survival, they have a lot of advanced weaponry and a large standing army. Most Arab armies are not particularly competent - the skilled fighting forces would be some units of the Syrian army, Hezbollah, possibly some of the IRGC and Hamas, possibly Iraqi Shia militias (although they’d have to keep many forces at home), maybe some Jordanians although my guess is they’d limit their involvement. I doubt Turkey would join a war on Israel because it would distract from the ongoing situation with the Kurds and would involve fighting with Iranians, although I suppose it’s possible. The Egyptian army isn’t built for that kind of war, and as the backbone of Sisi’s power it’s hard to see him committing to an overseas engagement, especially in defense of Hamas which is of course a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot. The Saudis are busy in Yemen and recent peace talks are floundering.
Israel isn’t guaranteed to win against the above by any means, but it’s not certain defeat either.
The Saudis and those countries also clearly want to be allies with the Israeli and its a game of dealing with some Jewish hate in Islam and their PMC viewing Israel as a very useful ally.
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To me what you described seems like a multi-proxy, insurgency war within or near to the borders of Israel which is very sobering to think about. You're right though perhaps I am being too much of a doomer in regards to Israel's ability to fight this conflict, even a regional one. I think however, the idea or era of Zionism is over. As in, Israel has used all of it's grace and the global community might even make Israel give up concessions for a lasting peace.
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I was alive then and it's nothing like post 9/11. A lot of people are criticizing Israel and US foreign policy in the ME right now. That definitely wasn't happening after 9/11. Also, there is a lot more sympathy for Muslims now, especially on the Left. A war for Israel would be extremely unpopular.
Me too, and I admit that the initial vibe was pretty well captured by The Onion's "We Must Retaliate With Blind Rage vs. We Must Retaliate With Measured, Focused Rage" debate. Bill Maher got bumped from ABC for saying a suicide attack wasn't "cowardly", because "murder is bad, cowardice is bad, therefore murder is cowardice" wasn't a textbook example of the Fallacy of the Undistributed Middle, it was just something Real Americans should bellyfeel.
Depends on how long you define "after" to mean. It started happening faster than the wars did.
There was some "Voter March"/"No Blood For Oil" protest on 9/12 that only attracted a thousand protesters ... but by the time the reaction to 9/11 was clearly in motion it was attracting the largest anti-war rally in history.
What an absolute soycuck tier shit to say and feel as if you've said something profound. I've lost the last bit of respect I didn't even know I still had for Bill Maher.
What? His point was it wasn't cowardice.
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I just looked it up and at one point afterwards George Bush had a 92% approval rating. I would say that is pretty different from now. Obviously you can find examples of people disagreeing, but objective measures like polling and voting show it was a much different time. That link you posted was a year and a half after 9/11.
I was too young by then but did Bush already commit to war at the period his popularity was so high?
Yeah the Afghanistan war was launched less than a month after September 11 and the rhetoric started pointing that way almost immediately. Bush started by demanding the Taliban hand over Bin Laden or else, they didn't, and the "or else" happened.
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Fair enough, certainly more criticism and skepticism now.
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I was in college and, at least there anyway, the "we deserved it" talk was immediate, I almost want to say same day. It certainly was not the universal or even the majority opinion but it was sizable and loud.
As a high school junior at the time, my experience largely matches yours. I think 9/11/2001 had too much confusion and fog-of-war for much of a narrative to develop, especially among high school students who were in class (first day of class for my high school, actually!), but by 9/12 and certainly by 9/13, the narrative of "What did we do wrong to deserve this?" or "What did we do to drive these people to such desperation that they felt they had no choice but to lash out in this way?" were very popular, both among students and teachers.
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George Bush had like a 92% approval rating. I'm sure there were Marxists and libertarians on college campuses at that time who said we deserved it but the vast majority of people were pissed off and wanted blood.
It seems funny in hindsight, but over the full 8 year terms, George W. Bush had a higher average weekly approval rating (49.4) than Barack Obama (47.9), largely based on the year or so after 9/11. In some ways, it seems like an example of how recency bias clouds expectations. But also that average approvals have been trending downward since the end of the Cold War -- perhaps indicative of larger trends of growing partisanship.
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