naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
The atmosphere right now reminds me a lot of the post 9-11, war on terror vibes. The US is about to get dragged into some middle eastern conflicts by Israel. The propaganda parrots, "patriots", Zionists, and arm chair generals repulse me. The US is led by a geriatric imbecile, our economy is hanging on by a thread, our weapon and oil stockpiles are depleted, our reputation is dwindling and our allies are weak or disappearing. This will not end well for the US. Unfortunately, I think the train has left the station. I hope this will be worth it.
Personally, I think this is the end of Zionism. Public perception has changed and the propaganda doesn't work like it used to. Israel might actually get fucked now. I feel we are in for large societal and cultural changes, as well as a geopolitical reordering if not WW3.
There are logistical components to this, though. If the gloves fully come off and Israel is in an existential war for survival, they have a lot of advanced weaponry and a large standing army. Most Arab armies are not particularly competent - the skilled fighting forces would be some units of the Syrian army, Hezbollah, possibly some of the IRGC and Hamas, possibly Iraqi Shia militias (although they’d have to keep many forces at home), maybe some Jordanians although my guess is they’d limit their involvement. I doubt Turkey would join a war on Israel because it would distract from the ongoing situation with the Kurds and would involve fighting with Iranians, although I suppose it’s possible. The Egyptian army isn’t built for that kind of war, and as the backbone of Sisi’s power it’s hard to see him committing to an overseas engagement, especially in defense of Hamas which is of course a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot. The Saudis are busy in Yemen and recent peace talks are floundering.
Israel isn’t guaranteed to win against the above by any means, but it’s not certain defeat either.
To me what you described seems like a multi-proxy, insurgency war within or near to the borders of Israel which is very sobering to think about. You're right though perhaps I am being too much of a doomer in regards to Israel's ability to fight this conflict, even a regional one. I think however, the idea or era of Zionism is over. As in, Israel has used all of it's grace and the global community might even make Israel give up concessions for a lasting peace.
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Notes -
The atmosphere right now reminds me a lot of the post 9-11, war on terror vibes. The US is about to get dragged into some middle eastern conflicts by Israel. The propaganda parrots, "patriots", Zionists, and arm chair generals repulse me. The US is led by a geriatric imbecile, our economy is hanging on by a thread, our weapon and oil stockpiles are depleted, our reputation is dwindling and our allies are weak or disappearing. This will not end well for the US. Unfortunately, I think the train has left the station. I hope this will be worth it.
Personally, I think this is the end of Zionism. Public perception has changed and the propaganda doesn't work like it used to. Israel might actually get fucked now. I feel we are in for large societal and cultural changes, as well as a geopolitical reordering if not WW3.
There are logistical components to this, though. If the gloves fully come off and Israel is in an existential war for survival, they have a lot of advanced weaponry and a large standing army. Most Arab armies are not particularly competent - the skilled fighting forces would be some units of the Syrian army, Hezbollah, possibly some of the IRGC and Hamas, possibly Iraqi Shia militias (although they’d have to keep many forces at home), maybe some Jordanians although my guess is they’d limit their involvement. I doubt Turkey would join a war on Israel because it would distract from the ongoing situation with the Kurds and would involve fighting with Iranians, although I suppose it’s possible. The Egyptian army isn’t built for that kind of war, and as the backbone of Sisi’s power it’s hard to see him committing to an overseas engagement, especially in defense of Hamas which is of course a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot. The Saudis are busy in Yemen and recent peace talks are floundering.
Israel isn’t guaranteed to win against the above by any means, but it’s not certain defeat either.
To me what you described seems like a multi-proxy, insurgency war within or near to the borders of Israel which is very sobering to think about. You're right though perhaps I am being too much of a doomer in regards to Israel's ability to fight this conflict, even a regional one. I think however, the idea or era of Zionism is over. As in, Israel has used all of it's grace and the global community might even make Israel give up concessions for a lasting peace.
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