StopSpreadingBullshit
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User ID: 1472
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
I think it is understandable that people who lost their children are incredibly vindictive. The perpetrator is dead (and he wasn't even punished as he shot himself — so he died his own, most likely pre-planned way), so the next target of the revenge is Alex Jones. We talk here about "decoupling", but it's easy to do "decoupling" for those who didn't suffer through the horrible loss ("Didn't these parents read Milton? They are such morons!"). Also, why did you put the word "victims" in quotes? Jones doubling down doesn't help him: "The verdict, he said, was an attempt to 'scare us away from questioning Uvalde and what really happened there, or Parkland or any other event'". This behavior doesn't invite compassion.
Position of the judges or journalists on the subject is something else entirely (as they should have higher ability to "decouple"), but I wanted to address the apparent lack of empathy in your post.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
We shouldn't
Why? It's like the meme "I consent, I consent, I don't". I think Mexico has the right to join any alliances it wants as well (though the US in that case can withdraw from NAFTA etc.). In that scenario, Mexico has to decide whether it wants to prioritize relationships with China or the US, and accept drawbacks of their decision. Poland and Baltic states made their decision — Russia had nothing to offer them, apart from chauvinistic sneering and cheap gas that they might later use to twist their arms politically.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
the US expanding right into Eastern Europe
Can we put this argument to rest? No one forced Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and the rest of Eastern Europe into NATO. Russia likes to talk about "sovereignty", but evidently it's "sovereignty for me, but not for thee"
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Obviously he lists scenarios that he prefers and finds probable, and not "aliens wipe out all human life, and the war becomes irrelevant". So it should be "The war will only end [in an acceptable to me and most Finnish people manner]".
This statement is, very obviously, factually untrue
Serious question (please don't take this as an offense — it's not intended as such) — are you autistic? You were the one, I believe, who said that living in Odesa and removing the statue of Catherine was a contradiction. And here you chose the most literal interpretation of this politician's words.
But it's naive to think that the CIA wasn't involved early
If they were involved (I cannot disprove it of course, just as I cannot prove or disprove that Kennedy was assassinated by CIA), it was for certain not at the earliest stages. Even on Wikipedia you can read that it started with some protests by students and activists, organized by a journalist Mustafa Nayem. It evolved into mass protests only after Yanukovich made an unforced error on Nov 30 and brutally suppressed by that time low number of protesters — Russia-style:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=6HtbdFfaYUc
Did CIA forced Berkut (riot police) to hit people's heads with police batons?
After seeing that, people got berserk and rioted. Maybe only after that State Department (that we know for sure) and intelligence services (possibly) got involved, but even without them hundreds of thousands people went protesting.
By 2013 situation in Ukraine was already explosive — even Russians, who supposedly know more about Ukraine than some Americans who listen to Oliver Stone, probably don't know the extension of government corruption at the time, Azarov's (PM of Yanukovich) mismanagement of the economy, or e.g. Vradiivka riots (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_of_Iryna_Krashkova — abuse by police was not something new, and people already demanded police reform; but Yanokuvich led Ukraine to Belarus-style autocracy). You have to live there to understand what happens there. Maybe that's why they thought they'll be met with flowers.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Furthermore, the either you are with us or you are against us policy of the US gives countries the option of either submitting and becoming vassal states or being more or less blockaded.
That's false — Turkey, Brazil, Vietnam and many other countries are neither American "vassals", not they are blockaded (though I object to the use of the term "vassal" to the US-aligned countries)
The Soviets didn't base nukes on Cuba.
Americans didn't base nukes in Poland either (despite Poles expressing their desire to have them there).
Just because a country is invited doesn't mean they have to.
So why do you deny their agency? They didn't have to, but they DECIDED to join.
West of Ukraine
Now how dare you.
/images/16670317188400383.webp
It's certainly not that people disagree with you, they are just bots. And that is certainly suspicious that they are not very interested in discussion of transsexuals when their city is bombed.
Bots participating here might be a thing, but people with your rhetoric certainly lower quality of discussion here. lesswrong and slatestarcodex were heterodox — but they were correct about things. About cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, COVID. Now, when it comes to geopolitics, freaking worldnews has better takes than the New Right that populates rat-adjacent forums including this one (you might say that I am biased — but compare predictions made there and by people like Karlin).
And yes, I am sure that kulaksrevolt didn't create this post just because article on AA he reposted was subpar, and some people noted it. Oh no, it was because of bots. Possibly from the West of Ukraine.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Probably the exact opposite is true. Russians will not be cruel to the local population no matter what, because they consider the local population to be Russian.
Evidence suggests otherwise.
An extremely unlucky coincidence is more probable than intentional Russian strike, or Ukrainian provocation though. Putin is a trickster, and a manipulator, yes, but he won't get anything by striking Poland, the only far-fetched explanation (that it's an "off-ramp" that would allow him to justify withdrawal from Ukraine) I think we can dismiss. Also some pro-Russians push the version that it's an attempt of Ukraine to draw NATO into the war — I too find not credible. Mostly because American GEOINT and MASINT is quite advanced, and with American help Poles won't have trouble to piece together what exactly happened.
I think we should look at the event holding this thought — that in a day, or two, or maybe a week NATO will know precisely what happened — whether it was a Russian missile, or a Ukrainian AA missile, or maybe both (e.g. if Ukrainian missile intercepted a Russian missile, and they both fell on those poor farmers). And I think Russian, Polish, Ukrainian and American authorities understand this. Kuleba already said that it wasn't a Ukrainian missile
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1592633235754057728?cxt=HHwWgIDQqazflZosAAAA
if he lied, or even was misinformed, Ukrainian credibility will take a hit. At the same time, Russians are no strangers to lying (think of their behavior during MH17 events), so they'll say "it wasn't us" either way.
EDIT: Remember the Ukrainian airplane that Iran shot down (what an irony)?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines_Flight_752
Americans leaked that it was Iranian AA the next day, on Jan 9th. And they were monitoring Iranian airspace in the aftermath of Soleimani just as they monitor Ukrainian airspace now.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
I am staying in Dnipro for a few weeks, and heard a loud "bam" several hours ago while being in my work office. Turns out, it was a result of a missile hitting an apartment block just by the riverside.
Maybe a thermal powerplant was the real target, there is one just a kilometer away, I don't know. Looks like Russia started to target not just substations, but generating capacities as well, this photo from the recent attack was published.
Also it's not far from a student dormitory where I used to live back in my student years. I wonder whether it is dangerous to work near the windows, as a strike near the office building would probably shatter them and make glass fly. But I generally don't take a lot of precautions — probably the danger to die from a missile strike in the rear areas is somewhat similar to the danger of being hit by a car (though the probability of the latter increased significantly, as power outages mean street and traffic lights not working occasionally). Or should I? It reminds me of COVID safety theater — everyone wearing masks, pouring antiseptics on their palms, but then abandoning most of it after a few months (at least it was like that here in Ukraine). The same with going to a shelter, or at least to your bathroom when the air raid siren starts ringing — almost no one does that. Maybe it would've saved people in this apartment block? But what about psyche of people, or damage to the economy if everyone went to a shelter several times a day?
Meanwhile I'll just focus on preparation for a couple of Azure exams that I need to pass if I'll be switching fields, even though I feel more motivated to keep working on my little pyGame project. Thankfully the war didn't affect me mentally too much.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Both Slovakia and Croatia existed as distinct parts of Czechoslovakia (it's in the name) and Yugoslavia before Hitler.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banovina_of_Croatia
They did not preserve their independence past WW2.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Many Eastern European countries suffered under the Soviets, but AFAIK there wasn't anything uniquely awful about Poland's experience?
I think it was? The difference with e.g. Ukraine is that Ukrainians were somewhat successfully assimilated, unlike Poland which was a distinct entity even under Russian thumb
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congress_Poland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_People%27s_Republic
So on one hand Poles were oppressed by Russians, on the other — they kept their cultural identity and historical memory (that incudes Russian abuses) intact.
Also Estonians, or Lithuanians, or Finns are just less numerous, so you see them less.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Baader-Meinhof phenomenon? When you are terminally online and submerged into Culture War, you will perceive all Culture War related things more acutely.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Imagine powerful right wingers from around the world, many in government
Some powerful right wing leaders attend Davos though (like Morawiecki), so it's not an exclusively neo-liberal coven. And there were conventions sort-of like what you are describing (e.g. CPAC Hungary) — left wingers were losing their minds over it, but I don't think there were any conspiracy theories around it (though Orban said some controversial race-related things).
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
It would have remained a mostly peaceful special operation if the US and EU had not meddled like they did in so many other countries in the last few decades.
No, more probable that it would have been an even bloodier affair, possibly even bloodier, and the fight would be in the urban areas of Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. With the same consequences as the siege of Mariupol.
Ukraine will be very gay and very African or it will not be.
What's your obsession with Africans? It's fine to tell, I won't kink-shame.
There is not.
Lithuania, Estonia and Denmark are probably getting punished as well?
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
I think it's probable that it might be more complicated than just "a missile fell on a tractor", but rather it was due to some false positive of a guidance system. Still it doesn't mean that it was intentional. Kinda similar to my theory of COVID-19 — it might be a lab leak, but not an intentional release in order to [decimate Chinese/Americans/old people/enter your reasoning here].
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Another side of the story that might have significance — a Russian missile hit a power plant that was responsible for supplying electricity to the oil pipeline that delivers Russian oil to Hungary, so there was a disruption in the supply.
Orban called for a security meeting over this. Being friendly to Russia, I doubt he will condemn Russia, but who knows.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
It was described incorrectly then, and you should read on that more
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine#Air_defense_systems
Ukraine operates mostly old Soviet equipment for counteracting cruise missiles (Like "Buk"), and no American instructor will pull the trigger for a Stinger or some other Western MANPAD. NASAMS are not yet deployed AFAIK.
Probably though, Americans warn Ukraine when submarines with Kalibrs launch their rockets though. But Russia switched to Iranian drones for strategic strikes in the last week.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
I agree with Scott on this one
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/conspiracies-of-cognition-conspiracies
If you hate "global elites" (or your image of them), it's convenient to have specific conspiracies at hand ("they want to force us to consume bugs and sleep in pods, while they eat expensive steaks and drink Chardonnay in their mansions and laugh at us!") instead of vague "they are evil neo-liberals who hate us!"
... you think it's normal that Biden bragged about having Ukrainian prosecuted fired for investigating Burisma, the company that was paying off Hunter Biden ?
Probably Bundestag MPs also had their children employed by Burisma.
And some guy from SBU who accused Shokin of corruption and demanded his resignation also had dealing with Burisma.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/11/12/7088525/
And members of Kharkiv Human Rights Group...
https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2016/01/7/7094715/
And dozens of Ukrainian MPs...
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
that you set up a Google ping for themotte when anything critical of Ukraine pops up
It's false. I read this forum sometimes, but I don't find American culture war that interesting so I rarely post.
Have you considered fighting in the war?
I did. But I have a dependant, and some of my relatives including my father are fighting, so if something happens to us, no one would be able to take care of my underage sister. Plus I don't have military experience, my father has. Also I have relatively lucrative job in IT, and I donate most of my salary to AFU. Make of that what you will.
I know Ukraine is drafting every young man they can find
It's false as well.
Or do you have a desk job with the Ukrainian military that permits you to engage in forums from time to time?
And that is comical. Interesting that people who laugh at conspiracies involving "Russian bots" fall to the same temptation of accusing anyone of being a "glowie", or an "Ukrobot".
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Essentially an assassination attempt on their leader. Hmmm...
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Ethnohistorical region with a strong separatist movement. Probability of Croats getting their independence as a result of Yugoslavian collapse (in itself a likely event) was quite high, Hitler had nothing to do with it.
StopSpreadingBullshit
1yr ago
Probably because it's beneficial for them from the economic standpoint, and also because the US is a counter-weight to the Chinese influence in the region. Not because the US strongarms Vietnam.
It is just untrue. Only organizing said referenda (as well as participation in any "counting commissions" etc.) falls under "treason" charges. One can participate in them, because no one would be able to prove that it was willingly, and not under duress. The same goes for "receiving humanitarian aid" from Russians — Russians spread this rumor to enforce compliance: "aha, you got some canned fish from us, now when Ukrainian authorities will learn of that, you'll get imprisoned, now you better obey us".
I am a Ukrainian, and usually just lurk, but I see so. Much. Bullshit. Spread. Around. From both sympathetic to Ukrainians people admittedly, but much more so from all those American internet contrarians. Starting with silly ("Zelensky prohibited letter Z! What a moron! Doesn't he know he has Z in his surname" — on /pcm it had probably 5k updoods, and many people uncritically assumed it's true); but also the standard tropes like "Maidan was a CIA plot!", "Zelensky prohibited all socialist parties!" and so on. Of course, all those people have never been to Ukraine, have no idea how Ukrainian politics is organized, don't read Ukrainian media, and don't know how people on the ground really feel.
But they watched maybe a couple videos on the subject including "Ukraine on Fire", read Karlin, and some others just as uninformed people as themselves on reddit and here, and now they think they are qualified to comment on the subject. Maybe those internet commentators should learn some humility? I don't comment on e.g. Finnish politics, and me knowing that people like "Sanna Marin", or "True Finns" exist, doesn't make me an expert, I just read Stefferi, and quietly updood.
Sorry for the rant.
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